Official Fire Dom Capers Thread

[Pugger]

As usual, it's only partly true. Rodgers is great because of Rodgers and because of Stubby'd development. Name the other successful Tedford QBs. How did their coaches change their mechanics and put them in an explosive offense tuned to their talents? Ignoring the team building that led to 2010 is totally myopic. Matthews and Raji were essential draft picks and Pickett and Woodson were absolutely essential FA picks. Collins came into his own that year, and Shields bailed out the back end. That was a #2 defense, largely because the great pieces TT accumulated were all healthy. On offense, the line was great, the receivers were at or close to their peak, and the running backs were good enough. Look at how Stubby got production out of Starks and Jackson. Even missing TT's great TE pick, they were almost unstoppable. But things fell apart, and it took until 2014 to reassemble a very solid defense. If Bostick had done his job, we likely have another trophy.

It's astonishing how well the team is constructed, considering where they routinely pick. As long as Stub by is here, it will be a team centered around the offense, just as MN will be centered on the defense. Right now Packers need 1 or 2 exceptional players and they'll need to get that by picking higher in the draft and/or a FA acquisition.

Nice post. Perhaps not making the playoffs this year and the continued issues on defense will finally produce changes this offseason. In his presser yesterday McCoach didn't have much good to say about the defense. Maybe he's starting to see what a lot of us have been seeing for a while now and he'll make a change. We can't keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.

[Pugger]

Biegel and Fackrell were supposed to replace a declining Peppers. Perry was supposed to play. Lowry and Clark were supposed to have breakout years.

Nada.

Clark? He was one of the few bright spots on this defense this year.

[Pugger]

Did you hear what Rodgers said about Carolina? He was hoping they'd blitz. Maybe it's because he and other QBs know how to beat all sorts of blitzes and are surprised by very little they see. Seems like more a veteran quality than due to a 'stale' defense. I find it hard to believe that there are defensive innovations that are so stunningly amazing that veteran QBs and offenses can't reasonably dissect them. Even if there are (say maybe Zimmer's) you need capable pros to run them. Seems like that's where the rubber meets the road for the Packers defense - personnel.

When Rodgers is Rodgers he can kill a team that blitzes him. But on Sunday his throws were off and short - mainly because of rust on not playing in 2 months.

[Carolina_Packer]

The Packers problem on defense is as much about availability as ability. That said, you can only use point to injuries for so long. TT needs to fix the defense, but is he the right man to fix it? You can blame Dom, scheme and injuries, but show me the impact players that TT has drafted who have shown out since being drafted. Too many swings and misses in my book. I don't want Capers to coach the D anymore. If fired, he may get another chance with a more aggressive GM, and better luck with player health and once again coach a decent defense, but his time in GB has to be coming to an end just from a confidence stand point. I also don't want TT to have the opportunity to fix the defense. That would be a pretty big turn of events, but it could happen. The A-Rod clock is ticking down. Get the D fixed once and for all.

[wpony]

I have been saying for a few yrs, now fire Capers to a friend of mine who lives close to me , Its not that Capers cant call a great defensive game plan his trouble is where the other teams offense comes in with a different game plan that capers drawn up its like he is to set in his way and seems that he cant or wont change that game plan he thinks what he calls is always perfect so the packers either loose or have there worst games of the year against the teams we should have stamped on so lets fire capers and bring is fresh thinking D,C,

[mraynrand]

Clark? He was one of the few bright spots on this defense this year.

He played well when healthy and meh when injured. May the injury gives him a pass but this was the year to discover whether he would be an exceptional difference maker or just a ‘good lineman’. Maybe next year but it’s looking like the latter.

[Rutnstrut]

I just don't understand the mindset of wanting to keep Capers because he does ok. Couldn't you argue that pretty much any poor to mediocre coach could do well if he was given outstanding talent, spared injuries, and got some luck? Sure Capers could do well in GB IF, the stars align. That isn't likely to happen, so new blood is needed at DC. But like I said, that won't happen as old stubby would have to fire him.

[beveaux1]

Capers would not have had some of the backend problems this year with a pass rush. Dix plays closer to the LOS and has to devote less time to helping CBs.

Capers had to abandon his pressure (which causes the backend complexity at times) when his injured CBs/replacements were getting beat deep. I don't know how you square this circle this year.

Capers might get fired for the mistakes and the complexity that made them more numerous. But don't forget that rookies make mistakes in coverages (Jones allowing that TD down the seam route was a colossal mistake in simple recognition about how many receivers were on which side of the field).

But Ted owes Capers more pass rush. Fackrell and Elliot failed to develop. You don't end up in the bottom third of the League with a veteran coach and staff unless there are personnel problems.

There is a lot of truth in this. The loss of Shields last year changed the draft strategy for this year. If Shields had been on this team, there would have been no need to draft a CB early- an OLB/edge rusher would have been the obvious pick.

Last year there was an abundance of well-thought-of CBs in the draft class with the assumption that this year's draft would be much more marginal for CBs. Thompson chose to pick a CB rather than an edge rusher. His next choice was a hybrid safety who could play ILB patterned after the Falcons and Deion Jones. Both picks were need picks because our ILBs lacked speed to cover RBs and TEs. During the off-season, he signed House for depth at CB and during preseason, after watching the play of Fackrell and Elliott, signed Brooks to provide edge rush when Matthews and Perry were gassed or hurt.

As we all know, every CB that was supposed to play in base, nickel, or dime defense, with the exception of Randall was injured. Most required placement on IR. At OLB, Matthews only missed one game, but Brooks and Perry have been injured more than they've been able to play. The result has been a lackluster at best pass rush. Surprisingly, when they've been healthy, the pass rush has been good. It just hasn't been good in more than 20% of the games.

I suppose a case could be made that Thompson didn't supply the components for this defense to succeed. I just have a hard time seeing what else he could have done. It's easy in retrospect to say that he could have drafted Watt and waited until this year to get a CB, but CBs have a longer development time than edge rushers and this year's class in CBs may not be as strong. Also, in hindsight it's easy to say he should have ponied up for a free agent edge rusher, but which were available and how well did they do this year?

Also, how much cap will he need to sign Adams and Rodgers and will he have to use this year's reserve to do it? The question to me is with Burnett, Dix, Randall, Martinez, Matthews, Lowry, Clark, and Daniels, how well should a defense perform? Should it rank 30th or below in 3rd down efficiency, red zone efficiency, time of possession, and number of drives with over 10 plays?

If the answer is that it should do better than that, then that's a coaching problem.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I think that the assumption that Capers has no input in the defensive players that are drafted and signed in FA and it's all TT giving Dom square players for round holes is absurd.

Dom is equally culpable for drafted and signed FA players for the defense as he certainly has input on who would work for his POS system.

There needs to be cleansing of the defensive leadership and scheme.

[call_me_ishmael]

I think that the assumption that Capers has no input in the defensive players that are drafted and signed in FA and it's all TT giving Dom square players for round holes is absurd.

Dom is equally culpable for drafted and signed FA players for the defense as he certainly has input on who would work for his POS system.

There needs to be cleansing of the defensive leadership and scheme.

Good point. I hadn't really considered this. It really makes you wonder then. I would argue that Teddy T has shown historic levels of poor performance on defensive drafting, but maybe it is Capers playing an equally big role.

[Pugger]

There is a lot of truth in this. The loss of Shields last year changed the draft strategy for this year. If Shields had been on this team, there would have been no need to draft a CB early- an OLB/edge rusher would have been the obvious pick.

Last year there was an abundance of well-thought-of CBs in the draft class with the assumption that this year's draft would be much more marginal for CBs. Thompson chose to pick a CB rather than an edge rusher. His next choice was a hybrid safety who could play ILB patterned after the Falcons and Deion Jones. Both picks were need picks because our ILBs lacked speed to cover RBs and TEs. During the off-season, he signed House for depth at CB and during preseason, after watching the play of Fackrell and Elliott, signed Brooks to provide edge rush when Matthews and Perry were gassed or hurt.

As we all know, every CB that was supposed to play in base, nickel, or dime defense, with the exception of Randall was injured. Most required placement on IR. At OLB, Matthews only missed one game, but Brooks and Perry have been injured more than they've been able to play. The result has been a lackluster at best pass rush. Surprisingly, when they've been healthy, the pass rush has been good. It just hasn't been good in more than 20% of the games.

I suppose a case could be made that Thompson didn't supply the components for this defense to succeed. I just have a hard time seeing what else he could have done. It's easy in retrospect to say that he could have drafted Watt and waited until this year to get a CB, but CBs have a longer development time than edge rushers and this year's class in CBs may not be as strong. Also, in hindsight it's easy to say he should have ponied up for a free agent edge rusher, but which were available and how well did they do this year?

Also, how much cap will he need to sign Adams and Rodgers and will he have to use this year's reserve to do it? The question to me is with Burnett, Dix, Randall, Martinez, Matthews, Lowry, Clark, and Daniels, how well should a defense perform? Should it rank 30th or below in 3rd down efficiency, red zone efficiency, time of possession, and number of drives with over 10 plays?

If the answer is that it should do better than that, then that's a coaching problem.

[beveaux1]

Good point. I hadn't really considered this. It really makes you wonder then. I would argue that Teddy T has shown historic levels of poor performance on defensive drafting, but maybe it is Capers playing an equally big role.

If your argument is that Thompson has drafted historically bad on the defensive side, I would submit that he has drafted fairly well on the defensive side. Burnett, Dix, House, King, Randall, Martinez, Matthews, Perry, Hayward, Hyde, Clark, Lowry, Ryan, and Daniels are all Thompson draft picks. All of them are starters at the NFL level. Some have reached pro bowl levels. If your argument is that he has not put enough difference makers on the field. I won't disagree with that. Although, even that comes with a qualifier. Both Shields and Matthews had been difference makers. Both of them have struggled with injury and it has removed one from the field and made the other merely a very good player much earlier than it should have.

The question still remains. Is it the system that is limiting some players from reaching their potential or are the players not good enough to reach greatness? Hyde and Hayward have certainly played well since leaving Green Bay. Both might make the pro bowl for their respective teams. How many more players do we have that could do the same with a different system?

[Smidgeon]

If your argument is that Thompson has drafted historically bad on the defensive side, I would submit that he has drafted fairly well on the defensive side. Burnett, Dix, House, King, Randall, Martinez, Matthews, Perry, Hayward, Hyde, Clark, Lowry, Ryan, and Daniels are all Thompson draft picks. All of them are starters at the NFL level. Some have reached pro bowl levels. If your argument is that he has not put enough difference makers on the field. I won't disagree with that. Although, even that comes with a qualifier. Both Shields and Matthews had been difference makers. Both of them have struggled with injury and it has removed one from the field and made the other merely a very good player much earlier than it should have.

The question still remains. Is it the system that is limiting some players from reaching their potential or are the players not good enough to reach greatness? Hyde and Hayward have certainly played well since leaving Green Bay. Both might make the pro bowl for their respective teams. How many more players do we have that could do the same with a different system?

Collins
Shields
Matthews' injuries

All robbed the Packers of that one defensive star that would put them over the top in certain games. You don't need that many. And you don't draft stars. You draft talent/production and hope it turns into stars. If all three of them were still playing along their trajectories, we wouldn't be worried about the defense. Matthews would keep moving the QB off his mark, Shields would shut down the opponents' number 1 receivers, and Collins would make them pay for everything else.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Collins has been gone for 5 years. That excuse is irrelevant at this point.

[beveaux1]

Collins has been gone for 5 years. That excuse is irrelevant at this point.

The average success rate for an NFL first round pick is 56%. That means that within 5 years, 5.6 out of 10 first round picks becomes a starter. 40% of first round picks are no longer in the league after their first NFL contract. Obviously, not all first round picks that become starters are difference makers. For every Darrell Revis there are many A.J. Hawks. Since the term difference maker is subjective and since every round of the draft lowers the possibility of finding an NFL starter (2nd round 25%, 3rd round 15%, 4th through 7th round between 3 and 7%). It would make sense that finding a difference maker past the 2nd round to be something akin to finding a needle in a haystack.

Thompson has been in charge of the draft for 12 years. During those years, he has uncovered 3 difference makers on defense. My guess would be that 1 out of 3 starters taken in the first round would be a difference maker (probably an extremely high guess). For rounds 2 through 7 and undrafted free agents we'll guess a little less- 1 out of 5 starters to be a difference maker (this would be an very high guess.). If my math is right, 18% of first round picks become a difference maker and a 10% chance in any year of finding a difference maker in the other rounds. This is a 3 in 10 chance that a draft will produce a difference maker. Not a good to very good player, but a difference maker.

Of course, getting more picks increases your odds, but trading out of the first round decreases your odds. Drafting later in the rounds also decreases your odds, but that's not part of my argument. In 12 years, we should have developed 4 difference makers - if we were average - on offense and defense together. I would say we've been better than average, probably quite a bit better than average. The problem has been the shortened careers, due to freak injury, of a number of our best players, especially on defense.

That is why talking about Collins is relevant. As relevant as talking about Shields and Matthews and it is also a strong reason for the continuing failure of our defense over the past 5 years.