What Does McCarthy Have to Do Next Year to Get A Contract Extension?

[pbmax]

Couldn't this just be about salary?

MM probably compares himself to guys like Sean Payton or Tomlin who continue to make significantly more money. His contract is finally up and its his turn to get a record deal but he's not going to do it after a turd of a season.

It could be. But that just means the status quo is still 'hot seat'.

M3 might be convinced he is getting a big ticket extension, though it seems very unlikely it happens this offseason (already did one year deal, very new front office and structure will want time to make decisions). He may figure that with Rodgers healthy, his odds are good after another season.

But think of the factors possibly aligned against him. New GM might want total control. Russ Ball also reports to Murphy and what if ol' Russ believes McCarthy cock blocked him from a GM position? Murphy did not bring McCarthy in. Thompson is still there but the new regime helped show Ted the door to a smaller office in Athens, Texas with dial-up access.

Who will want to hitch their wagon to this guy for four more years at any price? I don't think any are eager yet.

So it puts him on the hot seat for next year. If he doesn't deliver big and thinks he should be rewarded big, then he's probably gone.

I still think he is a Top 5 coach. But he is in danger of permanently giving up that ranking. His offense has stagnated and he has not self corrected to defenses figuring it out and for personnel changes at WR. He sticks with horrible performers as coaches for way too long without much success in developing solutions.

My biggest complaint about McCarthy is his inability to self correct his system and staff. He used to be an innovator, but now he seems more like Jeff Fisher, stuck in a mold.

Its a bit unfair to lay the entirety of Thompson/Capers refusal to acknowledge or willful blindness to their methods incompatibility at his feet. But he did have control over half of it and he did very little. Same with reshuffling the deck chairs on the ST Titanic for a decade. Even Zook has only got them to average.

I tend to think McCarthy and Ted are undervalued in fans' minds. But on a basic level (and most recent evidence) it looks like Rodgers is the driver of playoff appearances. To get a new deal, McCarthy will have to beat expectations.

And as hard as it might be to predict, I think expectations are the playoffs. So Mike will need another Championship game appearance or a Super Bowl visit to get a big new deal.

[pbmax]

A short version of that post is this:

Packer fans were plenty mad with playoff appearances and no visit to the Super Bowl in the last 7 years. But it took losing Rodgers and not making the playoffs until the front office was convinced changes had to be made.

If another year of playoff qualification and no advancement happens in 2018, will that be seen as return to normalcy or that the system is still broke?

I think the new FO will want to mark it as not acceptable and will lean toward dumping the coach to complete the house cleaning.

[Fritz]

As always, it depends on the context. If they get into the playoffs despite horrific injuries and BabyMikey is seen as the man who held the team together and drove them into the playoffs, then he might get his extension despite another 10-6 one-and-done year. But if Rodgers and the big guns stay pretty healthy and they still end up with another per-usual, then BabyM's head will roll. And I hope Ted gives it a kick while it's rolling out the door.

I do think TT probably did not deliver quite enough talent due to some lean drafting years here and there, and perhaps he was a bit cautious about using other avenues for improvement. But I also think MM kept Capers around after it became clear that this team's defense was not improving, and it weren't just a lack of talent. Matthew Stafford said what many people were thinking - it weren't hard to figure out what defense was being employed, long before the snap.

I think Pettine's going to give this team a boost on defense this year, which to me will validate the criticism of Capers and of MM for keeping him so long. Sorry, Tex, it's my opinion. If that happens, it will mean Ted did hand over some talent, because unless GuttyKlump drafts three big defensive starters right away, this will essentially be the defense Ted drafted. And it will mean BabyMike is culpable for keeping Capers around too long.

[3irty1]

My biggest complaint about McCarthy is his inability to self correct his system and staff. He used to be an innovator, but now he seems more like Jeff Fisher, stuck in a mold.

This is my biggest complaint too, but he's much quicker to adjust his system rather than his staff. And I still see him as an innovator. There is less practice than ever, simple offenses are more popular than ever, yet MM runs one of the few truly multiple offenses out there and its not a mess of penalties and miscommunication. I think the difference is that he used to go on about matchups but these days he has nobody left who is particularly big or fast. He's still managed to make mismatches out of versatility. Crafting an offense that is hell to substitute against. His protections get pretty creative too. He's not a sexy college offense full of trick plays but I don't think he's stale. Our offense usually looks pretty different by the end of a season and usually better.

[hoosier]

To me the most damning thing about MM is his inability to prepare what appeared to be a reasonably talented backup QB to perform competently when needed. Even worse, the look of the thing is that MM completely misunderestimated Hundley and had no clue that he wasn't ready for prime time. And then, when it became clear that the backup QB was playing like a backed up toilet, MM had difficulty adjusting the offense. And while all of this is going on, the defense, which played out of their heads in week 1 against Seattle, suddenly reverted to their old incompetent ways against lesser teams. Unlike in 2010, when starters began going down everything fell apart. Maybe it is true that each year is really a different team and that it's all a giant crapshoot or at least unknowable in advance. But MM's QB-guru rep, which was probably his calling card as a head coach, has now been dragged through the mud.

[Smidgeon]

To me the most damning thing about MM is his inability to prepare what appeared to be a reasonably talented backup QB to perform competently when needed. Even worse, the look of the thing is that MM completely misunderestimated Hundley and had no clue that he wasn't ready for prime time. And then, when it became clear that the backup QB was playing like a backed up toilet, MM had difficulty adjusting the offense. And while all of this is going on, the defense, which played out of their heads in week 1 against Seattle, suddenly reverted to their old incompetent ways against lesser teams. Unlike in 2010, when starters began going down everything fell apart. Maybe it is true that each year is really a different team and that it's all a giant crapshoot or at least unknowable in advance. But MM's QB-guru rep, which was probably his calling card as a head coach, has now been dragged through the mud.

He did adjust his offense for Hundley. It just didn't work:

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/rpos-became-emphasis-of-packers-offense-in-2017-137

[Maxie the Taxi]

"It's time! It's time!"

I change my vote. I just watched the entire 2010 Superb Owl win against the Steelers and, as Kevin Greene said to Clay, it's time to do it again. The problem is ARod can't do it on his own. Even though he played well in the 2010 Superb Owl, ARod wasn't necessarily the MVP of the game. Greg Jennings deserved it too. And Tramon Williams played an MVP game.

If Stubby's job depends on winning the Superb Owl next year, he might should begin packing his bags. IMO the 2010 team was loaded with talent even with all the injuries, head and shoulders above our current team on both offense and defense. Even the holdovers from 2010 like Clay and Jordy have seen their better days. Hopefully a new GM and a new Defensive Coordinator will make some difference. I'm hoping so.

But we need more talent on this team if we're going to go all the way.

[denverYooper]

A short version of that post is this:

Packer fans were plenty mad with playoff appearances and no visit to the Super Bowl in the last 7 years. But it took losing Rodgers and not making the playoffs until the front office was convinced changes had to be made.

If another year of playoff qualification and no advancement happens in 2018, will that be seen as return to normalcy or that the system is still broke?

I think the new FO will want to mark it as not acceptable and will lean toward dumping the coach to complete the house cleaning.

Or they won't be able to agree on terms if M3 wants a big deal without big production and "mutually" part ways.

I think they are due for another dominant year -- 12-4/13-3 -- and a deep playoff run if Rodgers stays healthy and they can leverage their sudden riches at running back.

The defense will be a major wildcard but that puts more responsibility on M3 to make sure the offense returns to 30 ppg.

[pbmax]

This is my biggest complaint too, but he's much quicker to adjust his system rather than his staff. And I still see him as an innovator. There is less practice than ever, simple offenses are more popular than ever, yet MM runs one of the few truly multiple offenses out there and its not a mess of penalties and miscommunication. I think the difference is that he used to go on about matchups but these days he has nobody left who is particularly big or fast. He's still managed to make mismatches out of versatility. Crafting an offense that is hell to substitute against. His protections get pretty creative too. He's not a sexy college offense full of trick plays but I don't think he's stale. Our offense usually looks pretty different by the end of a season and usually better.

I do agree that the offensive players execute an offense that is big on number of plays and that is not easy to do these days. His installs in the offseason are fantastic. He also gets rookies involved (even O line) and somehow doesn't lose the thread like the defense does with young starters. All to his credit.

But I think he has been hurt by the practice and age of players too. He scales down what he wants to call in a game to very few plays and you see a lot of repeat. That is a repeated critique of the internet X and O community. If you dominate physically, you can do this. If you have Rodgers, you can do this. If you don't have younger James Jones and Jordy Nelson and rookie Randall Cobb, then it looks like the Rodgers offense too much and puts him in physical jeopardy.

I suspect his offensive redo will be to do fewer concepts and greater variation, we'll see. Its eminently doable, for Dilfer's sake Nick Foles and Nelson Agholor just started and won a Super Bowl.

But the bolded part of your post, while true, is also a problem. His adjustments to his system have been giving him fewer returns. Leaning on deep throws to Nelson and Jones and throwing short to Cobb was great in 2011. No huddle/tempo was great in 2013 and 2014. But neither produces lately like they did previously and the short throwing game (behind LOS to WR) was not terribly effective last year. The one bright spot was the RB screen game. That should be a cornerstone of next years offense.

He is good enough that I will not predict a flat offensive year next year. Its just the trend I don't like.

[pbmax]

Or they won't be able to agree on terms if M3 wants a big deal without big production and "mutually" part ways.

I think they are due for another dominant year -- 12-4/13-3 -- and a deep playoff run if Rodgers stays healthy and they can leverage their sudden riches at running back.

The defense will be a major wildcard but that puts more responsibility on M3 to make sure the offense returns to 30 ppg.

Entirely possible. If bad retreads can keep getting rehired, then I can't see McCarthy not getting a head coaching job.

[channtheman]

Super Bowl, baby!

No real excuses if Rodgers stays healthy. I know that's ridiculous but if he can put together an average defense, our chances go way up. If he doesn't, Rodgers carries us to a Divisional round or Championship game before the team falters. IMO, with the most talented QB ever, that isn't good enough.

[Vincenzo]

In my opinion the Packers won’t make it deep in to the Playoffs in 2018 which will put McCarthy in a position where he’ll be offered a juicy contract elsewhere.
I agree with the statement said earlier which is “he won’t want the short end of the stick again.”

[hoosier]

He did adjust his offense for Hundley. It just didn't work:

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/rpos-b...se-in-2017-137

So you're saying that the misoverestimation was even worse than I thought?

[hoosier]

"It's time! It's time!"

I change my vote. I just watched the entire 2010 Superb Owl win against the Steelers and, as Kevin Greene said to Clay, it's time to do it again. The problem is ARod can't do it on his own. Even though he played well in the 2010 Superb Owl, ARod wasn't necessarily the MVP of the game. Greg Jennings deserved it too. And Tramon Williams played an MVP game.

If Stubby's job depends on winning the Superb Owl next year, he might should begin packing his bags. IMO the 2010 team was loaded with talent even with all the injuries, head and shoulders above our current team on both offense and defense. Even the holdovers from 2010 like Clay and Jordy have seen their better days. Hopefully a new GM and a new Defensive Coordinator will make some difference. I'm hoping so.

But we need more talent on this team if we're going to go all the way.

That's a fair point about the talent differential. I think it is most noticeable on defense and in the secondary, which--irony or no?--has been the area where TT poured most of high draft picks in recent years. The significant contributors on the 2010 team on defense:

D Line: Jenkins and Raji. Pickett was solid too, and Howard Green was useful depth and had one big moment in the SB.
LB: CMIII. Barnett and Hawk were adequate but nothing special.
DBs: Tramon (who by end of 2010 was playing better than even CW), Woodson, Collins. Honorable mention to Shields as third corner.

The 2017 team equals the 2010 team on the DL with Daniels, Clark and Lowry, but doesn't have anyone who can match the young CMIII's intensity/athleticism combo, and in the secondary they don't even come close.

Offense: given a healthy offensive line and a full season from Rodgers I think the difference between 2010 and 2017-18 is negligible. True, Jennings in his prime may be > Adams and they don't have the depth they had with the young James Jones and Jordy in complementary roles, but they have better depth now at RB and probably more talent at OL. What they are missing is talent and communication in the secondary, and a pass rushing talent.

[pbmax]

He did adjust his offense for Hundley. It just didn't work:

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/rpos-b...se-in-2017-137

I thought Rand was correct in observing that the offense reverted to touchdown to check down in the last couple of games. Opinion was kinda split on whether this was benign tanking or a natural turn of game plan.

I'll have to actually go read it to see if CheeseTV saw any of that.