McCarthy's Fate

[Smidgeon]

Don't know where to put this, but I finally read one of ESPN's pseudo-fluff pieces, and it had this nugget in it:

Since 2015, the Packers' first-through-third-quarter scoring differential is minus-91, which ranks 20th in the NFL, but their fourth-quarter differential is plus-105, best in the league over that stretch.

Um. Fairly damning that the head coach and de facto offensive play strategist is -91 in the first three quarters with one of the greatest QBs to play the game.

[ThunderDan]

Don't know where to put this, but I finally read one of ESPN's pseudo-fluff pieces, and it had this nugget in it:



Um. Fairly damning that the head coach and de facto offensive play strategist is -91 in the first three quarters with one of the greatest QBs to play the game.

Who says MM can't make halftime adjustments and light it up in the 4th?

[ThunderDan]

Don't know where to put this, but I finally read one of ESPN's pseudo-fluff pieces, and it had this nugget in it:



Um. Fairly damning that the head coach and de facto offensive play strategist is -91 in the first three quarters with one of the greatest QBs to play the game.

Stats for 2018 - Scoring Per Quarter and Rank

1st - 5.0 14th
2nd - 5.5 21st
3rd - 5.5 14th
4th - 8.7 6th

[ThunderDan]

Defensive Stats:
1st - 9.3 32nd
2nd - 7.3 20th
3rd - 1.0 1st
4th - 6.3 14th

[pbmax]

Stats for 2018 - Scoring Per Quarter and Rank

1st - 5.0 14th
2nd - 5.5 21st
3rd - 5.5 14th
4th - 8.7 6th

I'd bet some money that the second quarter has looked weird for some time. Once they go off the script, its anyone's guess what will work.

[pbmax]

Defensive Stats:
1st - 9.3 32nd
2nd - 7.3 20th
3rd - 1.0 1st
4th - 6.3 14th

So he adjusts well at halftime but what the hell is Pettine doing during the week?

Anyone have any ideas? Does he go blitz happy in the second half after once again failing to generate a 1st half pass rush with four?

[Fritz]

The Bears game was the anamoly - the defense held up for a while in that first quarter. But I don't know why they come out so flat. Maybe the defense is listening to the same coaches the offense listens to before the game.

Maybe Pettine starts out hoping somehow the standard four rushers can get some pressure, then gives in once it's clear that doesn't happen.

Matthews is old, and Perry has been disappointing. Fackrell is officially a bust. Daniels has been a disappointment, too. And Montravius Adams is heading for bust territory.

[Vincenzo]

Gotta wonder if the original poster is right that the time is nigh. Perhaps at the end of the season MM takes a job upstairs at Lambeau and thereby influences the selection of new Head Coach next season. I think this could be the worse case scenario for our team.

[3irty1]

^ The mismatch between the talent and its use on defense was the biggest problem for late era Capers. He needed talent and managed to squander it away in his scheme. Hayward wasn't all his fault given injuries, but even when he was healthy they just wanted him as a slot guy.

I think this is right. Capers stumbled upon a scheme that used Charles Woodson to such great effect that it was like having 12 guys on the field. This was an excellent example of fitting the scheme to the players which is of course a hallmark of good coaching. Then curiously, as Charles Woodson was about to play his last season in Green Bay, Hayward was drafted ostensibly as his heir apparent. Could be that this was buckling to the temptation to injury-proof the scheme or was somehow a belief that it was the position created for Woodson rather than the man himself that was special. It almost doesn't matter what the thinking was, we were now fitting the players to the scheme.

I think McCarthy started doing something similar. I got the sense he was burned one too many times by constructing his multiples offense around oft-injured talents like Finley and Cobb that his philosophy changed to scheme the players as interchangeable chess pieces. Whether it was Finley or Andrew Quarless lined up, the plan would be the same. Rodgers' comments about McCarthy under-utilizing Adams is further evidence as well. MM has been committing the same sins as Capers.

[mraynrand]

^^^ Yep, and APB (and others) go further to point out how Belichick not only schemes to his players' strengths, but will also completely alter their schemes to counter the particular strengths and weaknesses of their weekly opponent.

[pbmax]

I think McCarthy started doing something similar. I got the sense he was burned one too many times by constructing his multiples offense around oft-injured talents like Finley and Cobb that his philosophy changed to scheme the players as interchangeable chess pieces. Whether it was Finley or Andrew Quarless lined up, the plan would be the same. Rodgers' comments about McCarthy under-utilizing Adams is further evidence as well. MM has been committing the same sins as Capers.

And this is defensible on its own. Makes complete sense. Not every backup to Wally Pipp is Lou Gehrig.

But what isn't defensible, and the reason Rand's nickname Stubby has stuck, is that he sticks with that Plan 2 regardless of evidence its not working with these players. Being somewhere in the middle between talent and scheme is SO much more effective. But M3 is worried about his script and the practice schedule. What he really needs to do is rework the entire offensive playbook to give him ways to get lesser players open AND exploit the most talented ones.

That TE quadrilateral TD play to Monty was a thing of beauty. Mostly I think it was an unscouted look (San Fran initially put two DBs over there) but the fact that it caused confusion by formation only should be enough to convince you to do this regularly by design.

[3irty1]

^^^ Yep, and APB (and others) go further to point out how Belichick not only schemes to his players' strengths, but will also completely alter their schemes to counter the particular strengths and weaknesses of their weekly opponent.

I think Belichick's competitive advantage comes from operating in the moneyball era of professional sports. The NFL has such strong parity measures that the ability to put to use any body type or any standout skill set is a big deal. There is an arms race to find the talented tweeners and misfits that the league undervalues and invent roles for them. If the same guy who is wheeling and dealing has perfect information about how a player will be used, he knows more about real player values than most of the folks on the other end of the phone. Belichick can be barely capable at the GM portion of his job but still be a force multiplier in that integrated role. He's neither giving his GM a shopping list nor is he grabbing best player available and expecting his coach to figure out what to do with him.

[mraynrand]

Good posts PB and 31. All that is true with the stipulation that even all the scheming in the world can’t make silk purse from sows ear.

It’s like when my Sophmore IM b-ball team went up against a team of seniors with two starting guards from the high school team who had quit because they hated the coach and played IM instead. We put in our amazing triangle and two zone defense and took those two guys out with our best defenders. We still lost by 30 points because their other guys were on average about 5 inches taller and rebounded and scored at will inside.

Lesson: it helps to actually have Charles Woodson himself on your defense.

[3irty1]

Being somewhere in the middle between talent and scheme is SO much more effective.

I think this is true, but in a very specific way. Take another defensive example: 2013 Seattle. That team had some exceptional players who'd be great anywhere, but Earl Thomas was what the defense was built around. He was such a great center fielder that they could use a tweener linebacker as the other safety full time. Kam Chancellor is special teamer on many clubs but next to Thomas he was a star. Now Seattle's base defensive scheme was indistinguishable from a small college running a 4-4 split. They suddenly had uses for other tweeners everywhere else in their front 7.

So yes they were in between talent and scheme. Earl Thomas is an irreplaceable talent that would do well anywhere but the scheme around him made tweener sized holes everywhere else that you can give your GM a shopping list for because they are relatively cheap and plentiful. Talent determines the scheme which determines the talent. So taking this back to MM's offense, Rodgers is obviously the irreplaceable talent. If our roster was built to suit any scheme it seems to me that it was the no huddle given all the players who wear multiple hats and can give many different looks without changing personnel. This used to catch a lot of guys substituting and lead to many big free plays. Defenses seem to have figured this out. It's now just another tired scheme.

[pbmax]

So yes they were in between talent and scheme. Earl Thomas is an irreplaceable talent that would do well anywhere but the scheme around him made tweener sized holes everywhere else that you can give your GM a shopping list for because they are relatively cheap and plentiful. Talent determines the scheme which determines the talent. So taking this back to MM's offense, Rodgers is obviously the irreplaceable talent. If our roster was built to suit any scheme it seems to me that it was the no huddle given all the players who wear multiple hats and can give many different looks without changing personnel. This used to catch a lot of guys substituting and lead to many big free plays. Defenses seem to have figured this out. It's now just another tired scheme.

Agree that a generational talent somewhere can make all the difference. Also lets a smart veteran do what they do best rather than multi-task and be exposed.

My second largest concern with M3 is that either because of age and success OR because he has never really had to do it, he is not down with designing his offense from top to bottom with interlocking plays that aways get one player open quickly.

My largest concern is that his QB is stuck in Plan 2.0 and doesn't want to give it up.

My greatest source of hope is that I think Rodgers will get this faster than McCarthy has. Rodgers already conceded he has to get the ball out faster.