Is Gutekunst betting the farm? Putting all his eggs in this year's basket?

[Patler]

I've been waiting to see confirmed contract details to bring up this discussion. Not only has Gutekunst departed from recent Packer approach in signing free agents, unlike with the majority of recent contracts, Gutekunst has somewhat mortgaged the future in signing Smith I, Smith II, Amos and Turner.

The long and short of it is this, Gutekunst had better be right in determing that these guys are what is needed to make the Packers better, because if they aren't, the Packers are stuck with them for a few years. They won't have a second opportunity next year, maybe not even in 2021 because cutting them would severely disrupt the salary cap. JSO article summarizes it well:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sport...ar/3178457002/

Many recent Packer contracts have been nearly salary cap neutral even after only one season. The salary cap hit for cutting a player was close to the salary cap savings from removing his salary and bonus for that year. The Packers didn't have to keep players just because of the salary cap implications of cutting them.

If these four don't make the Packers significantly better, the Packers won't have much flexibility in 2020 or 2021 to move on from them. Right now their 2020 salary cap space is near the bottom of the league, and very much below the league average. They have one potentially big contract coming up in Clark, and a couple others whose values are yet to be determined (King, Fackrell, Martinez, etc.)

Gutekunst has taken his shot. His longevity in his job may depend on whether or not he has hit the target in this year's free agent market.

[red]

i don't know

as of right now, for next season, we have almost 40 million in free cap space even with the 4 new guys

our big free agents (that would eat the most cap if we resign them) are. kenny clark, mike daniels, blake martinez maybe fackrell, and lowry

so even if we re sign those guys, we're still should be under the cap

so we might not be completely screwed yet

and if the new guys don't pan out, we can cut them after this year and save a little bit of money. 1-2 million in cap relief each

[Bretsky]

TAKING GAMBLES: A SENSE OF URGENCY

I say....right or wrong....it's about f'cking time

We've had the best player in the NFL for many years; we should be more than a Fart in the Wind


For the record, I am on board with the Amos signing, and I"m fine with both Smith signings as a time we urgently needed at last one of them.


I'm not all in on Billy Turner; I think there would be opportunities get other OG's just as good as Turner for less money.

But just the sign of urgency to me is a welcome change

[Fritz]

Patler, I came to the same conclusion. Rare it is for a Packer GM not named Sherman to back-load contracts and hope you or someone else can clean up the mess down the road.

However, the article also mentions what would seem to be the reason for this: an aging Aaron Rodgers. This is a short-term strategy, which was the opposite of Thompson's way of working.

Let's hope it results in a Super Bowl championship in the next two to three years, cuz if it doesn't, it looks like we're going back to the days of dead money and no talent.

I can see why Gutekunst would do it. It's Rodgers or bust, at this point.

[Patler]

and if the new guys don't pan out, we can cut them after this year and save a little bit of money. 1-2 million in cap relief each

I don't think so. Cutting them after this year would actually cost them additional money against the cap in 2020 (Dead money cap hit after one year is more than the 2020 new money to be paid.) They are mostly committed to these guys for at least two years.

Projected salary cap space of $28M in 2020 sounds like a lot, but when you consider they are projected aat #28 in cap space, and the league averaage is $65M it shows they will be at a disadvantage to other teams even if this years FAs work out. Then, consider that their current 2020 projection includes only 33 players contracted for 2020. Much of that $28M of available cap space will be used up on the additional 20 players needed to complete the roster. When they sign this years draft class, the $28m projected to be available in 2020 will decrease by the second year contract amounts of the rookies, but will still leave some open spaces to be filled.

Not a dire situation, but more limiting than has been typical under TT.

[red]

I don't think so. Cutting them after this year would actually cost them additional money against the cap in 2020 (Dead money cap hit after one year is more than the 2020 new money to be paid.) They are mostly committed to these guys for at least two years.

Projected salary cap space of $28M in 2020 sounds like a lot, but when you consider they are projected aat #28 in cap space, and the league averaage is $65M it shows they will be at a disadvantage to other teams even if this years FAs work out. Then, consider that their current 2020 projection includes only 33 players contracted for 2020. Much of that $28M of available cap space will be used up on the additional 20 players needed to complete the roster. When they sign this years draft class, the $28m projected to be available in 2020 will decrease by the second year contract amounts of the rookies, but will still leave some open spaces to be filled.

Not a dire situation, but more limiting than has been typical under TT.

i think thats the problem, we're all too use to the ultra conservative approach of TT so anything other then that seems extreme

well welcome to the way the rest of the NFL works

and i think your number of 28 million is wrong. if you got that from spotrac, you'll notice the salary cap is actually lower then what it is this year. no way thats gonna happen. it usually goes up about 10 per year

for z-smith. next season he will have a cap him of 17.25 million. if we cut him, it would cost us 15 million. with a 9.5 million dollar toster bonus. so we would gain almost 12 million in cap space https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...s-smith-16848/

p-smith, has a cap hit of 13.5, and would have a hit of 12 million if cut. due a 4.5 roster bonus savings 6.0 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...n-smith-16762/

amose, will count 9.4, 8.25 if cut. 4.4 roster bonus. save about $6 million https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...an-amos-16868/

billy turner will cost 7.6, 6.75 if cut. turner also has a 3 million dollar roster bonus next year. so you would save that too https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...-turner-14477/

so while we would take huge amounts of dead hits, we would be saving some cap if we had to cut any of them

actually, looking back at them. with the huge roster bonuses in 2020, these could just be 1 year deals

[Patler]

[QUOTE=Fritz;1005579]Patler, I came to the same conclusion. Rare it is for a Packer GM not named Sherman to back-load contracts and hope you or someone else can clean up the mess down the road.

However, the article also mentions what would seem to be the reason for this: an aging Aaron Rodgers. This is a short-term strategy, which was the opposite of Thompson's way of working.

Let's hope it results in a Super Bowl championship in the next two to three years, cuz if it doesn't, it looks like we're going back to the days of dead money and no talent.

I can see why Gutekunst would do it. It's Rodgers or bust, at this point.[/QUOT

Agreed, much similarity to Sherman, even the reasons for doing it. Favre was at the same stage of his career, and Sherman was trying to make the most of it. Hopefully, Smith I & II and Amos don't turn out to be 2019 versions of Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Mark Roman or John Thierry.

[SMBASS]

John Thierry...(RIP) Wow Patler! There's a name that had been relegated to the back 40 of my memory.

[pbmax]

Over the Cap has Doctor Smith being escapable after 1 year with $2.25 mil in cap savings. If its designated post June 1, then the dead money gets spread out in $5 mi chunks. Otherwise its $15,000,000.

https://overthecap.com/player/zadarius-smith/3970/

Preston Smith almost the same thing. Prior to Year 2 (before the bonus due 3 days after new league year) he can be cut for $1.5 mil of cap savings. $12,000,000 dead money left to deal with.

https://overthecap.com/player/preston-smith/3886/

[pbmax]

John Thierry...(RIP) Wow Patler! There's a name that had been relegated to the back 40 of my memory.

Never has a player other than KGB been closer to the QB and not gotten a sack. Datone Jones was a shadow of this great lack of ability to close out.

[Patler]

i think thats the problem, we're all too use to the ultra conservative approach of TT so anything other then that seems extreme

well welcome to the way the rest of the NFL works

and i think your number of 28 million is wrong. if you got that from spotrac, you'll notice the salary cap is actually lower then what it is this year. no way thats gonna happen. it usually goes up about 10 per year

for z-smith. next season he will have a cap him of 17.25 million. if we cut him, it would cost us 15 million. with a 9.5 million dollar toster bonus. so we would gain almost 12 million in cap space https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...s-smith-16848/

p-smith, has a cap hit of 13.5, and would have a hit of 12 million if cut. due a 4.5 roster bonus savings 6.0 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...n-smith-16762/

amose, will count 9.4, 8.25 if cut. 4.4 roster bonus. save about $6 million https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...an-amos-16868/

billy turner will cost 7.6, 6.75 if cut. turner also has a 3 million dollar roster bonus next year. so you would save that too https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...-turner-14477/

so while we would take huge amounts of dead hits, we would be saving some cap if we had to cut any of them

actually, looking back at them. with the huge roster bonuses in 2020, these could just be 1 year deals

The numbers are not mine. I took my numbers from Daugherty's article that I linked to. I figured he gets paid to do the research, I don't.

Per Daugherty, the Packers are 28th of 32, with projected cap space less than half of the league average. That's not doing it like the rest of the league (which would be more near 16th, and 65M space.) The Packers are pushing the bottom. It's the opposite extreme of being around fifth in space with much, much more available cap space than the league average.

No matter what the correct numbers are, the comparisons to other teams remain, assuming all are calculated the same way. I'm not suggesting Gutekunst has made a mistake, but if he is wrong about these FAs, he won't have much flexibility to redo it next year. The Packers could then be looking at more years of medicrity while they burn through the guaranteed money of these contracts

[Patler]

John Thierry...(RIP) Wow Patler! There's a name that had been relegated to the back 40 of my memory.

Sometimes my memory doesn't have a back 40!

[Joemailman]

Spotrac has Packers 26M under the cap for 2020. However, that is based on the salary cap staying the same at 188M which it won't. I would expect Packers available cap spaced to be more close to 40M. That doesn't change the fact that they'll be about 28th in cap space. One silver lining in this cloud is that the Bears and Vikings will be in even worse shape.

A couple of thoughts: Don't be surprised if Gutey goes DL with one of his 1st round picks. Mike Daniels will be a UFA in 2020, and Packers may not be looking to give him another big contract with Kenny Clark entering his 5th year in 2020.

The Packers would save 8M on the salary cap by cutting Jimmy Graham before the 2020 season. Graham will have a base salary of 7.5 million in 2020. He will have to have a very good year in 2019 to see that money.

Don't be surprised if Gutey drafts Daniels' and Graham's replacements early in the 2019 draft.

[wist43]

[QUOTE=Patler;1005590]

Patler, I came to the same conclusion. Rare it is for a Packer GM not named Sherman to back-load contracts and hope you or someone else can clean up the mess down the road.

However, the article also mentions what would seem to be the reason for this: an aging Aaron Rodgers. This is a short-term strategy, which was the opposite of Thompson's way of working.

Let's hope it results in a Super Bowl championship in the next two to three years, cuz if it doesn't, it looks like we're going back to the days of dead money and no talent.

I can see why Gutekunst would do it. It's Rodgers or bust, at this point.[/QUOT

Agreed, much similarity to Sherman, even the reasons for doing it. Favre was at the same stage of his career, and Sherman was trying to make the most of it. Hopefully, Smith I & II and Amos don't turn out to be 2019 versions of Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Mark Roman or John Thierry.

Dead money or not - the problem now is a lack of talent.

Can't blame that on Gute.

Gute had no choice but to go out and get some talent on the open market - cuz we sure haven't been drafting it.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

With all due respect, Patler, but you lost all credibility regarding the cap when you argued -and was mathematically debunked- that it was impossible for Todd to retain both Wahle and Rivera, as well as Shaper.

Leave salary cap analysis to burger-flipping losers who have passed all 4 sections of the CPA (cap proficiency assessment) exams.

The cap can always be cooked. The networks will always bail out teams, at least until, Zeus-willing, capitalism collapses. There’s no such thing as a cap hell anymore.

The cap ain’t preventing Jerry Jones from building a team full of highly paid superstars. Instead, Jones refrains from doing so cos he’s a greed-fucked fishmonger, just like all the other greed-fucked fishmongers in the greed-fucked league.

The more expensive the player, the less profit, err, fish the fishmonger takes home.