First Round Pick 2019 #2, Darnell Savage

[3irty1]

Sure, but you can only move around so much without losing value (and by that I mean pick value).

And its still better, no matter what your draft guidelines are, to get higher numbers of picks in a class.

The value of the picks for trading purposes assume a perfect Pareto distribution of talent. 250 guys will never form such a perfectly tier-less distribution, especially when talent is evaluated across different positions by teams with different preferences. The real value of picks has to do with where they intersect with one's own tiers (ideally to maximize value you'd move up and/or down as much as possible to choose the last remaining guys in your tier). It's safe to say that every deal made during the draft is a win/win according to those making the deal, so doesn't it stand to reason that every move in the draft yields value? Anything else seems to me a roundabout way of expressing no confidence in the GM which at this point would be based not on his track record but on how his evaluations compare with that of the draft media and/or youtube scouts. An assumption I make is that even the least competent NFL scouting team and GM exceed the expertise and preparations of the draft media. So what is a fan to think?

When I was a child I youtube scouted like a child; when I became a man I could no longer be heartbroken by a GM's draft choice.

[gbgary]

he makes the db group very versatile along with amos (plays both safety possessions), alexander (plays slot and o/s), and savage being able to play slot, cb, or fs.

[pbmax]

The value of the picks for trading purposes assume a perfect Pareto distribution of talent. 250 guys will never form such a perfectly tier-less distribution, especially when talent is evaluated across different positions by teams with different preferences. The real value of picks has to do with where they intersect with one's own tiers (ideally to maximize value you'd move up and/or down as much as possible to choose the last remaining guys in your tier). It's safe to say that every deal made during the draft is a win/win according to those making the deal, so doesn't it stand to reason that every move in the draft yields value? Anything else seems to me a roundabout way of expressing no confidence in the GM which at this point would be based not on his track record but on how his evaluations compare with that of the draft media and/or youtube scouts. An assumption I make is that even the least competent NFL scouting team and GM exceed the expertise and preparations of the draft media. So what is a fan to think?

When I was a child I youtube scouted like a child; when I became a man I could no longer be heartbroken by a GM's draft choice.

I don't think most trades work that way. Teams want to trade down who either see too many players in one tier at the current spot or see no one in the proper tier. Ted trading up to get Spriggs is the perfect example of moving to get a tier and a pick aligned with a need but it seems to have been a terrible price to pay.

If you went for maximizing talent by tier and always traded down, you could combine efficient pick position with efficient talent collection. But you would be hard pressed to get to the top tiers of talent.

[Fritz]

wrong missile, wrong guide

Well, he was wearing green. It was the best I could do.

I agree with Bobble's analysis on the pick - he's got to prove to be better, by quite a bit, than guys like Thornhill and Gardner-Thompson and Adderly - and as a Packers' beat writer pointed out this morning, for the price paid he'd better be ready to come in and start right away and not blow assignments all the time. If you picked him to develop slowly, like Nick Collins, you paid a mighty price in current assets for a long-term payoff.

[Bretsky]

Ton of stellar NFL players are getting drafted in round 4 today

[pbmax]

Gute is listening to you complainers:

Kelly Price @thekellyprice
Gutekunst is asked about that trade up for Darnell Savage yesterday: “I know for a fact we wouldn’t have gotten him at 30.”

Now for the rumors we can all quote for the next 10 years:

@tdpPACKERSfan @pickAdevin
Oak took abram, if gb didnt trade up for savage, oak takes him if indy didnt. Oak coached senior bowl, savage was a star there

DON'T KNOW WHO THIS GUY IS BUT SEEMS TRUSTWORTHY, NO?

[mraynrand]

Well, he was wearing green. It was the best I could do.

I agree with Bobble's analysis on the pick - he's got to prove to be better, by quite a bit, than guys like Thornhill and Gardner-Thompson and Adderly - and as a Packers' beat writer pointed out this morning, for the price paid he'd better be ready to come in and start right away and not blow assignments all the time. If you picked him to develop slowly, like Nick Collins, you paid a mighty price in current assets for a long-term payoff.

Asking any rookie to be a solid starter at safety right away is a big deal. If he can fill that roll and make a few plays this year, that would be tremendous. There will always be the comparisons, but so long as he's a solid starter who signs his second contract, I won't be festering over comparisons to Adderall, Sellers or Northbynorthwest.

[Fritz]

Asking any rookie to be a solid starter at safety right away is a big deal. If he can fill that roll and make a few plays this year, that would be tremendous. There will always be the comparisons, but so long as he's a solid starter who signs his second contract, I won't be festering over comparisons to Adderall, Sellers or Northbynorthwest.

This only proves you are weak in your fandom.

You need to obsess over this. Hold those grudges, nurse them. Pounce on evidence that supports your view; ignore or explain away evidence that contradicts your view.

And then there is my secret weapon: forgetfulness. If, for example, Rashan Gary turns out to be all-world, I will bank on my fellow Packerrats forgetting how I've gone off the deep end these past two days, and in due time I will be able to quietly assert that I knew all along, having watched Gary at Michigan, that he would blossom with good coaching and a position change.

I can coach you up, Ayn. You have potential, though you tend to stubbornly see all this as a mere pastime, opinions subject to our personal whims. You also tend to try to see the big picture and put things into context. But I can coach you out of all that.

Here. Fill in these blanks:

___________________, the Packers' draft pick this year, is going to be the best/worst [circle one] _______________________ they've ever had. I am absolutely/positively/undoubtedly [circle two] able to guarantee this. Just you wait and see, PB/Harv/Tank/Fritz/Ishmael [circle name of poster/posters who disagree with you].

See? You're on your way!

[George Cumby]

Gute is listening to you complainers:

Kelly Price @thekellyprice
Gutekunst is asked about that trade up for Darnell Savage yesterday: “I know for a fact we wouldn’t have gotten him at 30.”

Now for the rumors we can all quote for the next 10 years:

@tdpPACKERSfan @pickAdevin
Oak took abram, if gb didnt trade up for savage, oak takes him if indy didnt. Oak coached senior bowl, savage was a star there

DON'T KNOW WHO THIS GUY IS BUT SEEMS TRUSTWORTHY, NO?

The fact that Gruden was going to take the kid isn't particularly confidence inspiring.

[Fritz]

The fact that Gruden was going to take the kid isn't particularly confidence inspiring.

Great post.

[bobblehead]

Ton of stellar NFL players are getting drafted in round 4 today

To feel worse, go check out the draft positions of our 3 expensive Defensive FAs from this offseason.

[bobblehead]

Gute is listening to you complainers:

Kelly Price @thekellyprice
Gutekunst is asked about that trade up for Darnell Savage yesterday: “I know for a fact we wouldn’t have gotten him at 30.”

Now for the rumors we can all quote for the next 10 years:

@tdpPACKERSfan @pickAdevin
Oak took abram, if gb didnt trade up for savage, oak takes him if indy didnt. Oak coached senior bowl, savage was a star there

DON'T KNOW WHO THIS GUY IS BUT SEEMS TRUSTWORTHY, NO?

Abram isn't the same kind of safety Savage is so I put nothing into this.

[pbmax]

Fritz, I can forgive you for the passion and defeatism with Gary, but its going to be, ah, difficult, to move past the boxer-brief pic.

[pbmax]

Pic 6 at most.

[Fritz]

Fritz, I can forgive you for the passion and defeatism with Gary, but its going to, ah, difficult, to move past the boxer-brief pic.

Somebody wrote "guided missile," and I just thought a visual would help our readers here. And he is wearing green.