On to the next one - week 3 - Bronco game week discussion

[mraynrand]

I read, I process, I laugh. Not all, but too many of you are fixated on a Rodgers/LaFleur battle of wills. Others are consumed with a run/pass battle. The truth is that too many postings don't have a leg to stand on. The concept of a "balanced" offense that is not so predictable is beyond the IQ level of most posting here.

So keep on posting, I'm laughing my ass off !

Piss off

[mraynrand]

too much shot gun!

This simple explanation may be true.

But really pbmax cites TOs and close calls. All of the above, really. And attribute some to the defense. Theyre gonna make plays. Look at Minnesota - almost their entire offense was two plays. If the Packers convert on a couple more plays the game is probably more of an easy breather for fans.

I prefer the run threat to empty backfield. 3rd and long (5-10) may be an issue, but it didn’t come up that often to actually be a critical element of the game.

I don’t think they’re that far away from a well running offense. Especially because it looks like they can get better at the LG position. Concerns in this order: empty backfield/shotgun, Rodger’s tunnel vision for Adams, having seeing quick/underneath options under pressure (this last one isn’t so much for conversion of downs but for not taking sacks from holding the ball).

[pbmax]

Very nice thread here on Packer O versus Vikings. Including the suggestion that the first deep play to Adams was a check.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2019/film-room-green-bay-offense

Soaking in the game in its entirety, it feels more like LaFleur came into the contest with a fantastic game script rather than a functional game plan. Once both teams settled in, LaFleur reverted back to all the tendencies that plagued his Tennessee offense last year and did not have any answers to remedy the passing attack's constipation. If that is what LaFleur's offense is going to look like every time a decent defense settles in against them, the Packers are going to be in for a long, low-scoring season.

[pbmax]

Hmmm. If you had told me the numbers suggest the Packers blocked the pass rush better than rushed the passer so far this year, I'd have seriously doubted you.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

Top 10 DE/OLB Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Khalil Mack, Bears, 38%
2. Matt Judon, Ravens, 33%
3. Josh Allen, Jaguars, 32%
4. Marcus Davenport, Saints, 32%
5. Takkarist McKinley, Falcons, 30%
6. Brandon Graham, Eagles, 30%
7. Dante Fowler, Rams, 28%
8. T.J. Watt, Steelers, 28%
T9. Derek Barnett, Eagles, 27%
T9. Arden Key, Raiders, 27%

Top 10 DT Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Grady Jarrett, Falcons, 32%
2. Chris Jones, Chiefs, 29%
3. Aaron Donald, Rams, 24%
4. Corey Peters, Cardinals, 21%
5. Michael Bennett, Patriots, 19%
6. Maliek Collins, Cowboys, 18%
7. Kawann Short, Panthers, 17%
8. Ed Oliver, Bills, 16%
9. Michael Brockers, Rams, 16%
T10. Quinton Jefferson, Seahawks, 15%
T10. Mike Daniels, Lions, 15%
T10. Daron Payne, Redskins, 15%


Top 10 OT Pass Block Win Rate

1. La'el Collins, Cowboys, 100%
2. Mike McGlinchey, 49ers, 100%
3. Greg Robinson, Browns, 97%
4. Tyron Smith, Cowboys, 97%
5. Brian O'Neill, Vikings, 97%
6. Trent Brown, Raiders, 96%
7. Nate Solder, Giants, 96%
8. Brandon Shell, Jets, 96%
T9. David Bakhtiari, Packers, 96%
T9. Jack Conklin, Titans, 96%

Top 10 OG Pass Block Win Rate

1. Joel Bitonio, Browns, 100%
2. Joe Thuney, Patriots, 100%
3. Tytus Howard, Texans, 100%
4. Will Hernandez, Giants, 98%
5. Billy Turner, Packers, 98%
6. Lane Taylor, Packers, 97%
T7. Zack Martin, Cowboys, 97%
T7. Joe Dahl, Lions, 97%
9. Larry Warford, Saints, 96%
T10. David DeCastro, Steelers, 96%
T10. Jamil Douglas, Titans, 96%

Top 10 C Pass Block Win Rate


1. Brandon Linder, Jaguars, 98%
2. Trey Hopkins, Bengals, 98%
3. Ryan Jensen, Bucs, 98%
4. Ted Karras, Patriots, Bucs, 97%
5. Rodney Hudson, Raiders, 97%
6. Mike Pouncey, Chargers, 96%
7. JC Tretter, Browns, 96%
8. A.Q. Shipley, Cardinals, 96%
9. Corey Linsley, Packers, 96%
10. Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers, 95%


Top 10 team Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Ravens, 64%
2. Falcons, 63%
3. Eagles, 61%
4. Buccaneers, 60%
5. Rams, 57%
6. Bears, 56%
7. Steelers, 56%
8. Saints, 51%
9. Cardinals, 50%
10. Seahawks, 46%


Top 10 team Pass Block Win Rate

1. Browns, 74%
2. Packers, 70%
3. Cowboys, 68%
4. Giants, 68%
T5. Colts, 67%
T5. Titans, 67%
7. 49ers, 65%
T8. Bills, 64%
T8. Patriots, 64%
10. Bears, 64%

ESPN Analytics: https://www.espn.com/analytics/

[gbgary]

Very nice thread here on Packer O versus Vikings. Including the suggestion that the first deep play to Adams was a check.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/fi...en-bay-offense

yes...MLF's offense has built-in options on every play. they really sold run on that too.

[pbmax]

yes...MLF's offense has built-in options on every play. they really sold run on that too.

I don't know this guy, but I suspect this was not a check to a pass, but a protection call.

I take it back, I think it was a check.

[pbmax]

I think we will need this before the season is out.

[Fritz]

2nd Half!

(13:49) A.Jones left end to GB 34 for 9 yards (D.Hunter).
(13:06) A.Jones left end pushed ob at GB 33 for -1 yards (E.Wilson).
Timeout #1 by GB at 12:22.
(12:22) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short middle to D.Adams to GB 45 for 12 yards (A.Harris). P15
(11:55) PENALTY on GB, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at GB 45 - No Play.
(11:35) J.Williams right end to GB 43 for 3 yards (E.Kendricks).
(10:56) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to J.Williams pushed ob at GB 47 for 4 yards (T.Waynes).
(10:17) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 42, RECOVERED by MIN-H.Mata'afa at GB 42.

(9:12) A.Jones up the middle to GB 36 for 11 yards (E.Wilson). R16
(8:45) (No Huddle) A.Jones right end to GB 45 for 9 yards (D.Hunter).
(8:00) J.Williams right guard to GB 47 for 2 yards (T.Waynes). R17
(7:17) J.Williams left end to 50 for 3 yards (E.Kendricks; E.Griffen).
(6:33) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to D.Adams [D.Hunter].
(6:26) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at GB 40 for -10 yards (D.Hunter).
(5:41) J.Scott punts 48 yards to MIN 12, Center-H.Bradley, fair catch by C.Beebe.

(:51) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to A.Jones to GB 16 for 15 yards (H.Smith).
(:10) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to A.Jones.
(15:00) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to M.Valdes-Scantling (J.Kearse).
4-6-GB 20 (14:52) J.Scott punts 47 yards to MIN 33, Center-H.Bradley. C.Beebe MUFFS catch (T.Summers).

(11:48) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to J.Williams [I.Odenigbo].
(11:44) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to J.Graham to GB 28 for 6 yards (A.Harris) [I.Odenigbo].
PENALTY on GB-J.Graham, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at GB 22 - No Play.
(11:23) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at GB 4 for -8 yards (L.Joseph).
(10:36) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short middle to J.Kumerow to GB 16 for 12 yards (X.Rhodes).
Penalty on GB-G.Allison, Offensive Holding, declined.
(10:21) J.Scott punts 59 yards to MIN 25, Center-H.Bradley. C.Beebe ran ob at MIN 40 for 15 yards (A.Amos).

(5:10) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to M.Valdes-Scantling (T.Waynes).
(5:03) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to A.Jones (E.Kendricks) [E.Wilson].
(4:57) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 28 for 8 yards (J.Kearse) [E.Griffen].
(4:14) J.Scott punts 48 yards to MIN 24, Center-H.Bradley, fair catch by C.Beebe.

(3:14) A.Jones left guard to GB 23 for 2 yards (E.Kendricks).
(2:27) A.Jones right end to GB 36 for 13 yards (H.Smith; A.Harris). R19 Timeout #1 by MIN at 02:19.
(2:19) A.Jones right end to GB 40 for 4 yards (D.Hunter).
(2:00) A.Rodgers pass short middle to D.Adams to GB 47 for 7 yards (A.Harris). P20 Timeout #2 by MIN at 01:53.

(1:53) A.Jones up the middle to GB 49 for 2 yards (A.Harris; E.Wilson).
Timeout #3 by MIN at 01:47.
(1:47) J.Williams right guard to 50 for 1 yard (E.Kendricks).
(1:02) J.Williams left end to MIN 47 for 3 yards (L.Joseph).
(:14) (Pass formation) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.
(:13) R.Tonyan reported in as eligible. J.Scott punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-H.Bradley, Touchback.

16 passes. 13 runs. 3 deep throws.

Conclusion: Deep ain't the problem. Its not great, especially from shotgun, but its not the big issue. It has definitely changed from Rodgers past, but its not the play calling challenge here. Plus, if you reduce deep throws more, the short game gets tougher (see all drives after 3 scores). And you might be missing the opening score.

More concerning are penalties and turnovers. Turnovers killed two drives. Penalties killed three drives. Penalties on Clark and JA helped extend the first Vikings drive for a score.

I don't think the Rodgers version of the shotgun works with this receiving group and his current accuracy. But the pass game is fine from under center.

The big play calling issue is what to do about third and long.

One quick observation after reading the list of plays and results: the drop off from Aaron Jones to Jamaal Williams is a cliff or a canyon. Holy cow. Williams seems the very definition of pedestrian.

[RashanGary]

Packers have 4 of their 5 lineman in the top 5 pass block win rates and Bulaga can’t be far behind.

[gbgary]

Hmmm. If you had told me the numbers suggest the Packers blocked the pass rush better than rushed the passer so far this year, I'd have seriously doubted you.

makes the passing game failures even more frustrating.

[RashanGary]

makes the passing game failures even more frustrating.

Yep. Forced deep balls while we have the lead. Again. McCarthy and now Lafleur. We just cant find the right coach. Gonna have to start looking again.

[Radagast]

Very nice thread here on Packer O versus Vikings. Including the suggestion that the first deep play to Adams was a check.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/fi...en-bay-offense

Outstanding link, more please?

[pbmax]

Yep. Forced deep balls while we have the lead. Again. McCarthy and now Lafleur. We just cant find the right coach. Gonna have to start looking again.

3 deep throws is hardly being forced. I would argue the reverse.

A better deep passing game would help immensely.

The ideas that Rodgers is not what he once was and that the WR corp is undermanned are not mutually exclusive.

[Fritz]

Yep. Forced deep balls while we have the lead. Again. McCarthy and now Lafleur. We just cant find the right coach. Gonna have to start looking again.

Damn straight. Rashan, you're one proactive poster. Why wait until The Flower suffers a loss as a head coach? Why wait to see how the offense develops? That crap is for losers and babies.

Fire the Flower, Now! We demand not only wins, but wins that look dominant!

[texaspackerbacker]

Hmmm. If you had told me the numbers suggest the Packers blocked the pass rush better than rushed the passer so far this year, I'd have seriously doubted you.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

Top 10 DE/OLB Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Khalil Mack, Bears, 38%
2. Matt Judon, Ravens, 33%
3. Josh Allen, Jaguars, 32%
4. Marcus Davenport, Saints, 32%
5. Takkarist McKinley, Falcons, 30%
6. Brandon Graham, Eagles, 30%
7. Dante Fowler, Rams, 28%
8. T.J. Watt, Steelers, 28%
T9. Derek Barnett, Eagles, 27%
T9. Arden Key, Raiders, 27%

Top 10 DT Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Grady Jarrett, Falcons, 32%
2. Chris Jones, Chiefs, 29%
3. Aaron Donald, Rams, 24%
4. Corey Peters, Cardinals, 21%
5. Michael Bennett, Patriots, 19%
6. Maliek Collins, Cowboys, 18%
7. Kawann Short, Panthers, 17%
8. Ed Oliver, Bills, 16%
9. Michael Brockers, Rams, 16%
T10. Quinton Jefferson, Seahawks, 15%
T10. Mike Daniels, Lions, 15%
T10. Daron Payne, Redskins, 15%


Top 10 OT Pass Block Win Rate

1. La'el Collins, Cowboys, 100%
2. Mike McGlinchey, 49ers, 100%
3. Greg Robinson, Browns, 97%
4. Tyron Smith, Cowboys, 97%
5. Brian O'Neill, Vikings, 97%
6. Trent Brown, Raiders, 96%
7. Nate Solder, Giants, 96%
8. Brandon Shell, Jets, 96%
T9. David Bakhtiari, Packers, 96%
T9. Jack Conklin, Titans, 96%

Top 10 OG Pass Block Win Rate

1. Joel Bitonio, Browns, 100%
2. Joe Thuney, Patriots, 100%
3. Tytus Howard, Texans, 100%
4. Will Hernandez, Giants, 98%
5. Billy Turner, Packers, 98%
6. Lane Taylor, Packers, 97%
T7. Zack Martin, Cowboys, 97%
T7. Joe Dahl, Lions, 97%
9. Larry Warford, Saints, 96%
T10. David DeCastro, Steelers, 96%
T10. Jamil Douglas, Titans, 96%

Top 10 C Pass Block Win Rate


1. Brandon Linder, Jaguars, 98%
2. Trey Hopkins, Bengals, 98%
3. Ryan Jensen, Bucs, 98%
4. Ted Karras, Patriots, Bucs, 97%
5. Rodney Hudson, Raiders, 97%
6. Mike Pouncey, Chargers, 96%
7. JC Tretter, Browns, 96%
8. A.Q. Shipley, Cardinals, 96%
9. Corey Linsley, Packers, 96%
10. Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers, 95%


Top 10 team Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Ravens, 64%
2. Falcons, 63%
3. Eagles, 61%
4. Buccaneers, 60%
5. Rams, 57%
6. Bears, 56%
7. Steelers, 56%
8. Saints, 51%
9. Cardinals, 50%
10. Seahawks, 46%


Top 10 team Pass Block Win Rate

1. Browns, 74%
2. Packers, 70%
3. Cowboys, 68%
4. Giants, 68%
T5. Colts, 67%
T5. Titans, 67%
7. 49ers, 65%
T8. Bills, 64%
T8. Patriots, 64%
10. Bears, 64%

ESPN Analytics: https://www.espn.com/analytics/

That's about as big a crock of misleading stats as I've seen for quite a while - both D and O.