Never too early 2020 NFL Draft Thread

[Deputy Nutz]

Glad you've come around with Cephus; he's the real deal. Surprised at the compliment on Coan though. If he could throw a deep ball Cephus would have had 5 more TD's.

Coan needs to be the backup next year IMO

Mertz is a way more talented kid than Coan. I don't think anyone can deny that. My fear with the Badgers program is that they feel comfortable with "Old Reliable" as the signal caller. If the Badgers didn't have a 4 star, Elite 11 QB like Mertz waiting in the wings I think Badger fan would be thrilled with Jack Coan for another two years.

College quarterbacking is not good. Probably explains the value of a good pro NFL QB.
Re: Cephus, I watched one clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vzw3CTOCN8 and...he's ok. His routes improved over time, and he has good hands. Thicker body than I expected, but what surprised me was how few tackles he broke. Makes me think he won't give you any YAC. Agree the combine will be important for him -- he doesn't seem fast but he did run past some iffy corners on go routes. I'm inclined to think he's not very quick and has build-up speed. He's not bad but he feels like a Day 3 pick.

re: Dye, watched this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4u7RBUoUzk and he looks like a big safety...he has some speed to him but I wasn't impressed as a R2 pick. He'll need to be protected or he'll get engulfed every.single.time. Has trouble disengaging from blocks and I'm not sure how instinctive he is. Might have some coverage ability and looks like he can drop into zones, I wonder if he would be better as a 4-3 run-and-hit kind of backer. IIRC he played with a broken thumb which can affect how you play (ask Blake Martinez or Nick Perry about that) but I think he's there into R4 or 5 and could be a good ST player.

Maybe I just don't like anyone as more than a Day 3 pick today LOL.

Cephus doesn't have the juke. He is a get what you can type of receiver. When he catches the curl or the stick route he leans forward to get the most yards possible. I think a side by side comparison between Cephus and some of these other receivers you will notice not much difference in terms of athletic ability and football skill. Compare him to Mims, People-Jones, Shenault, or Aiyuk I don't think you are going to see a huge difference.

I think my comments on Dye have more to do with him being a top 5 linebacker in this draft and how shallow the pool is at linebacker. Dye isn't a world beater and I think if you had to draft him as a starter on day 1 you did something terribly wrong as a GM.

The wide zone scheme with the combination of a gap/power scheme that the 49ers used to decimate the Packers' run defense exposes the ability or lack of ability of the inside linebackers. Martinez who has started for the past 4 seasons struggled with it and was exposed, how would a mid round draft pick do in the same situation?

[pbmax]

The wide zone scheme with the combination of a gap/power scheme that the 49ers used to decimate the Packers' run defense exposes the ability or lack of ability of the inside linebackers. Martinez who has started for the past 4 seasons struggled with it and was exposed, how would a mid round draft pick do in the same situation?

Are you confident that the biggest factor is Martinez or the ILBs in general?

Because some of those clips from the playoff game look like the Northwestern guys were getting blocked before the snap (wrong alignment, wrong technique, fall down, get sealed). Hell there was a play that Montravious Adams beat a double team (was blown out of the hole at first but still got past one block) and was in his gap (roughly) and it was the best D line play of that run. Martinez was at least in his gap too but couldn't get completely free of the block. Their Guard just ran over the Nitro safety.

Its possible that in this defense or for his production, Martinez simply isn't worth the money, I get that. Especially if he is going to get north of $10-12 mil per year.

But with a safety hybrid collapsing like a card table and two D lineman just taking themselves out of the play (and Z Smith not holding an edge) mean there just aren't enough players making themselves available at the point of attack.

A speedy, run downhill and get TFLs ILB would help, but he is also going to allow big plays.

I'm just not sure what hole needs plugging most.

[Deputy Nutz]

Are you confident that the biggest factor is Martinez or the ILBs in general?

Because some of those clips from the playoff game look like the Northwestern guys were getting blocked before the snap (wrong alignment, wrong technique, fall down, get sealed). Hell there was a play that Montravious Adams beat a double team (was blown out of the hole at first but still got past one block) and was in his gap (roughly) and it was the best D line play of that run. Martinez was at least in his gap too but couldn't get completely free of the block. Their Guard just ran over the Nitro safety.

Its possible that in this defense or for his production, Martinez simply isn't worth the money, I get that. Especially if he is going to get north of $10-12 mil per year.

But with a safety hybrid collapsing like a card table and two D lineman just taking themselves out of the play (and Z Smith not holding an edge) mean there just aren't enough players making themselves available at the point of attack.

A speedy, run downhill and get TFLs ILB would help, but he is also going to allow big plays.

I'm just not sure what hole needs plugging most.

I was just speaking about the linebacker play (in a vacuum) in the San Fran game. I would be content signing Martinez to a 6 million avg per year deal, but it doesn't sound like that is going to happen. If the Packers had other options at that position I would even say to let him go for that price.

So you are going to have to fix something in the front seven. Is it drafting one or two defensive tackles and waiting for them to develop or drafting one or two linebackers and letting them develop? Either way they need to fill both spots to be more successful on defense. If the Packers are going to play with hybrid safeties then they need to specifically draft those types of players, because right now they don't have those guys. The Smiths are great against the pass, I was a bit shocked at how poorly they played against the heavy run scheme against the 49ers, but the Packers main area of need was pass rush going into the 2019 season and Gutter solved that problem. The Packers don't have a lot of money to play with in free agency, so signing a top end defensive tackle is sort of out of the question.

[Radagast]

Now is the time for GB to get ready to address it needs for the 2020 regular season. IMO, the Packers greatest needs are:

1.WR
2. ROT
3. ILB

Sign Martinez and make getting him some real help at ILB a priority.

Free agency can fill some or possibly all GB's needs, but I don't think it will. I would support trading draft picks if it would land a WR like CEE Dee Lamb from Oklahoma

[pbmax]

I was just speaking about the linebacker play (in a vacuum) in the San Fran game. I would be content signing Martinez to a 6 million avg per year deal, but it doesn't sound like that is going to happen. If the Packers had other options at that position I would even say to let him go for that price.

So you are going to have to fix something in the front seven. Is it drafting one or two defensive tackles and waiting for them to develop or drafting one or two linebackers and letting them develop? Either way they need to fill both spots to be more successful on defense. If the Packers are going to play with hybrid safeties then they need to specifically draft those types of players, because right now they don't have those guys. The Smiths are great against the pass, I was a bit shocked at how poorly they played against the heavy run scheme against the 49ers, but the Packers main area of need was pass rush going into the 2019 season and Gutter solved that problem. The Packers don't have a lot of money to play with in free agency, so signing a top end defensive tackle is sort of out of the question.

Yes, Z Smith was Matthews-like hit or miss against the run. Preston is big enough to hold an edge, but he was not there are much as Perry would be. With Preston I suspect that is a matter of focus because he seems strong and tough enough to plant himself.

Pass rush is the must have if your offense can score and, even if limited compared to other years, Packers can score. So they are going to have to get run D on the cheap.

Draft one ILB and DT at least and find some depth.

I suspect that Pettine's approach with this group is to one gap and chase upfield and play the run on the way. But a lot of the San Fran run game is designed to bury that with misdirection, motion and the power/gap game you mentioned. That offense might be kryptonite to this D.

I just don't think Lowry and Lancaster are good enough to help more.

[mraynrand]

Now is the time for GB to get ready to address it needs for the 2020 regular season.

I think they can relax for another week.

[pbmax]

Mike Renner @PFF_Mike
How I'd rank the relative strength of each position group in the 2020 draft class:

1. WR
2. OT
3. CB
4. DT
5. QB
6. RB
7. IOL
8. LB
9. Edge
10. S
11. TE

IF THIS GUY IS EVEN CLOSE TO CORRECT, NOT A BAD YEAR FOR PACKERS TO DRAFT.

[pbmax]

I think they can relax for another week.

No days off

[pbmax]

Kenneth Murray: https://packerswire.usatoday.com/202...enneth-murray/

[Deputy Nutz]

Murray is a fun guy to watch!

[mraynrand]

Why does anyone think Murray will last until the Packers pick?

[Deputy Nutz]

Any team that is desperate for a middle or inside linebacker will take Murray and Queen in the first round because there is zero depth to that positional group.

[run pMc]

Why does anyone think Murray will last until the Packers pick?

Because most believe there will be a run on QBs and OTs and probably 3 WRs taken before them in R1. There are defensive players at premium positions (Chase Young, Derrick Brown, Jeff Okudah, etc.) that will go early too, and even safeties like McKinney and Delpit.
Basically it depends on how you have your board and players ranked. Recent top 10 or top 15 ILBs have had to have special traits (Smith, Edmunds, White, Bush) and pre-combine/pro day I'm not sure they've sussed them out.
Right now it looks like Simmons will go early and Murray/Queen later in R1, if you believe the current draftniks' boards. I suppose it's possible all three could be gone by, say, pick 20, but I think at least one of Murray/Queen will be there at 30. If not, that likely means there's a good OT or WR left on the board, i.e., a BPA that fills an area of need. Even if they are there, I'm not 100% convinced Gute takes them over an OT if there's a good one there.

I will say that he's attacked areas of weakness pretty comprehensively (CB with Alexander, Jackson, Tramon; OLB with Smiths + Gary, S w/ Amos + Savage) so I'd expect him to go after ILBs and WRs pretty heavily. Based on his end of season comments I don't think he believes the problem is with the DL.

[mraynrand]

Because most believe there will be a run on QBs and OTs and probably 3 WRs taken before them in R1. There are defensive players at premium positions (Chase Young, Derrick Brown, Jeff Okudah, etc.) that will go early too, and even safeties like McKinney and Delpit.
Basically it depends on how you have your board and players ranked. Recent top 10 or top 15 ILBs have had to have special traits (Smith, Edmunds, White, Bush) and pre-combine/pro day I'm not sure they've sussed them out.
Right now it looks like Simmons will go early and Murray/Queen later in R1, if you believe the current draftniks' boards. I suppose it's possible all three could be gone by, say, pick 20, but I think at least one of Murray/Queen will be there at 30. If not, that likely means there's a good OT or WR left on the board, i.e., a BPA that fills an area of need. Even if they are there, I'm not 100% convinced Gute takes them over an OT if there's a good one there.

I will say that he's attacked areas of weakness pretty comprehensively (CB with Alexander, Jackson, Tramon; OLB with Smiths + Gary, S w/ Amos + Savage) so I'd expect him to go after ILBs and WRs pretty heavily. Based on his end of season comments I don't think he believes the problem is with the DL.

Interesting. Yea, as far as DL Gute seems (at least publicly) to think Mt. Adams will still progress too. Maybe that's pre-draft chicanery?

I wonder if Carolina will panic and sign Martinez or someone else for too much $$$ or focus on Murray or someone else and make their move in the draft.

[run pMc]

Mertz is a way more talented kid than Coan. I don't think anyone can deny that. My fear with the Badgers program is that they feel comfortable with "Old Reliable" as the signal caller. If the Badgers didn't have a 4 star, Elite 11 QB like Mertz waiting in the wings I think Badger fan would be thrilled with Jack Coan for another two years.



Cephus doesn't have the juke. He is a get what you can type of receiver. When he catches the curl or the stick route he leans forward to get the most yards possible. I think a side by side comparison between Cephus and some of these other receivers you will notice not much difference in terms of athletic ability and football skill. Compare him to Mims, People-Jones, Shenault, or Aiyuk I don't think you are going to see a huge difference.

I think my comments on Dye have more to do with him being a top 5 linebacker in this draft and how shallow the pool is at linebacker. Dye isn't a world beater and I think if you had to draft him as a starter on day 1 you did something terribly wrong as a GM.

The wide zone scheme with the combination of a gap/power scheme that the 49ers used to decimate the Packers' run defense exposes the ability or lack of ability of the inside linebackers. Martinez who has started for the past 4 seasons struggled with it and was exposed, how would a mid round draft pick do in the same situation?

I'm actually not that impressed with Aiyuk... he's ok, but doesn't seem like a Day 1 pick to me. Have to look at People-Jones, but I liked some of what I saw with Mims but Baylor and Michigan haven't produced a lot of great WRs lately. Shenault is very good after the catch. Cephus does some good things so I wasn't necessarily slagging him but if he's anything more than a Day3 pick you'd like to see more wiggle or something out of him to justify it. He has pro talent.

As for Dye, if he's picked earlier than R4 it's because the team is desperate, or he destroyed the combine. He's a developmental guy -- I'd be scared to start him Week 1, even as a replacement for Nitro safety. He could end up a good player, but I like some other ILBs better.

I wouldn't blame Martinez for all the run issues -- like pb, I saw the NW guys either get pushed out of gaps, play the wrong gap, or just end up on the ground. Blake is ok -- actually a great value given his production as a R4 pick -- but he'll struggle if he's gotta fight off an OL block and chase down Mostert before he hits the corner. That's just a limitation he has, and one Gute will likely work to fix with his ILBs. Ibraheim Campbell isn't gonna give him that much help when he's washed out of the play either.

Shanahan's offense caused havoc for a lot of defenses last year. If Pettine is any good he'll study the film and come up with some counters to it, and Gute will get him some speed.

My bigger issue with the ILBs is how the MOF has basically been wide open for QBs to make easy throws.