STOP THE INSANITY RANT---THE CASE OF THE OVERPAID POSITION OF QUARTERBACK

[pbmax]

Now reading the entire post I ask you. If the Titans got Blake on a 3 year deal at $1 million a year with an $8 million signing bonus and a clause saying its forfeit if he ever holds out but still isn't released from contract...would that be better than Ryan Tannehill at 31 years old and 29.5 million a year. Tell me honestly, which way would you rather go?

Fair question. But I am not sure I know Tannehill's upside. I still remember the injured guy in Miami and I did not watch him in Tenn. I suspect he and Blake are close but Tannelhill did not play that way last year in relief. He seems like he was lights out.

[bobblehead]

Ryan Tannehill best season:

2015 16 364 587 62.0 4210 7.17 24 12 88.8

Bortles:

2015 16 355 606 58.6 4428 7.31 35 18 88.2

bortles is only 27. Tannehill re surged with a team that was much smarter than Miami and had a great run game. Put Bortles in same scenario and I bet you get a similar result.

[bobblehead]

GMs worry too much what the fan base says. Could you imagine if Carolina had signed bortles to a modest contract and stated "he is our guy". Yet the media hype is around Teddy so he gets the gig and the fans are placated. BTW, Sean Peyton has said Taysom Hill is his QB of the future.

[Bretsky]

Ryan Tannehill best season:

2015 16 364 587 62.0 4210 7.17 24 12 88.8

Bortles:

2015 16 355 606 58.6 4428 7.31 35 18 88.2

bortles is only 27. Tannehill re surged with a team that was much smarter than Miami and had a great run game. Put Bortles in same scenario and I bet you get a similar result.

Tannehill's upside may be Kirk Cousins; are those guys 30 Million Dollars a year QB's ? I don't think so

[call_me_ishmael]

Except the Ravens model, which refuses to pay a QB a ton has won 2 with Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer. Many avg. to below avg QBs win Owls.

Ravens made Joe Flacco highest paid player in the NFL though after the super bowl.

[Bretsky]

Ravens made Joe Flacco highest paid player in the NFL though after the super bowl.

Yup, and they definitely regretted that move.

It will be interesting to see how many of these teams win a SB in the next ten years who have QB's who have ruined their cap.

It'll be harder for KC if Mahommes is getting paid 40 MIL as opposed to his rookie deal.

[pbmax]

GMs worry too much what the fan base says. Could you imagine if Carolina had signed bortles to a modest contract and stated "he is our guy". Yet the media hype is around Teddy so he gets the gig and the fans are placated. BTW, Sean Peyton has said Taysom Hill is his QB of the future.

GMs don't worry directly about fans. Owners do.

[pbmax]

Ryan Tannehill best season:

2015 16 364 587 62.0 4210 7.17 24 12 88.8

Bortles:

2015 16 355 606 58.6 4428 7.31 35 18 88.2

bortles is only 27. Tannehill re surged with a team that was much smarter than Miami and had a great run game. Put Bortles in same scenario and I bet you get a similar result.

Let's stipulate that Tannehill's best season is 2015 (I'd say 2014 but nevermind). His passer rating in 2015 was 88.8. His QBR was 46.3. With dumb Miami, he has surpassed that PR three times (2014, 2016, 2018). He has surpassed that 2015 QBR four times (2012, 13, 14, 16)

Bortles has surpassed his PR and QBR from 2015 once (QBR in 2017).

If we have judged their timeline correctly, looks like Tannehill's ceiling is better and that is ignoring last year's results.

I don't think you can judge Bortles the more valuable QB based on passing results. He is younger, bigger and did not miss a year with a bad injury. If you sign him, its because of cost, age and injury.

But here is where Tannehill earned his monster deal: 2019 relief appearances

                                                     
Year      G GS  Cmp  Att Cmp%   Yds  TD Int Y/A  Rate
2019*    12 10  201  286 70.3  2742  22   6 9.6 117.5

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/29/2020.

Jake Jortles has never come close to that. Maybe it was a smarter Tennessee. But Tannehill did it. Bortles did not.

[bobblehead]

Ravens made Joe Flacco highest paid player in the NFL though after the super bowl.

and then the roster suffered, and then they moved on. Will be very interesting to see what happens with Jackson down the line.

[bobblehead]

Yup, and they definitely regretted that move.

It will be interesting to see how many of these teams win a SB in the next ten years who have QB's who have ruined their cap.

It'll be harder for KC if Mahommes is getting paid 40 MIL as opposed to his rookie deal.

They just had to franchise Chris Jones. If they lose him its a huge step back for that defense.

[bobblehead]

I don't think you can judge Bortles the more valuable QB based on passing results. He is younger, bigger and did not miss a year with a bad injury. If you sign him, its because of cost, age and injury.
.

And I am not judging him as more valuable. Maybe not even AS valuable. Simply saying if I were a GM and I could pay bortles the $1 million he got last year, or I could pay Tannehill the 29.5 million with $62 million fully guaranteed...well, its not even a choice. Offer Blake that 3 year deal with team protections against a holdout and sign 2 marquee defensive studs, or OL with the change. Hell, keep Conklin.

[bobblehead]

Jake Jortles has never come close to that. Maybe it was a smarter Tennessee. But Tannehill did it. Bortles did not.

And again, he was in a way superior position. You want to take a 10 game starters sample vs. an 8 year career and pay $62 million fully guaranteed. I don't.

[pbmax]

And again, he was in a way superior position. You want to take a 10 game starters sample vs. an 8 year career and pay $62 million fully guaranteed. I don't.

I am inclined to agree with you about the approach. Unless you are convinced he is also a game changer.

Frankly, if I am Tennessee, I am more worried about his injuries than the cost. According to OTC, after two years they can get away almost scott free.

[run pMc]

I don't think of Bortles or Tannehill as guys who can carry a team, so $30M is too rich IMO. TEN didn't appear to have many other good options so if they keep Tannehill and Henry and can get out of those contracts in 2 years that will be good. I think Henry will wear down and Tannehill will wear out his welcome in TEN.

If I was an owner, I'd be very reluctant to exceed $25M annually for a QB that was basically a game manager/caretaker type; once you get to $30M you expect that player to be good enough to carry a team like Rodgers, Brees, et al. have in past seasons.

[pbmax]

I don't think of Bortles or Tannehill as guys who can carry a team, so $30M is too rich IMO. TEN didn't appear to have many other good options so if they keep Tannehill and Henry and can get out of those contracts in 2 years that will be good. I think Henry will wear down and Tannehill will wear out his welcome in TEN.

If I was an owner, I'd be very reluctant to exceed $25M annually for a QB that was basically a game manager/caretaker type; once you get to $30M you expect that player to be good enough to carry a team like Rodgers, Brees, et al. have in past seasons.

It sounds insane, but a good long test drive of a QB you know works in the system for $60 mil is probably not nuts.

The yearly seems high even if you fob off some of the bonus/guarantees into the third year of the cap hit, but its not gong to cause them to have to rebuild if it doesn't work out. Part of the reason his guarantee is so high is because its a two year starting gig only.

Stafford's deal was more of a handicap because of the length.

The only irony is that the Jags, who had Bortles, and Tennessee, who could have had him, are two franchises that were building offenses that could have worked with modest QBs.