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Official Packers at Buccaneers NFC Championship Game Thread

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  • The great thing about a conspiracy is that it can never be proven false. Everything is just vague enough to prove nothing while obfuscating everything.

    A conspiracy's biggest enemy is common sense.

    Unfortunately, common sense seems to be lacking these days.

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    • What are we talking about? NFL games are fixed? LMAO

      If that were true it would have leaked already.
      Think about how hard it is to keep a surprise birthday party a surprise. Now imagine that, but ongoing for years, and with thousands more people (including ex-employees) keeping their mouths shut. Yeah, people are too gossipy for that to be real.

      Honestly, people just make shit up because it fits something they want to believe.

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      • Originally posted by run pMc View Post
        What are we talking about? NFL games are fixed? LMAO

        If that were true it would have leaked already.
        Think about how hard it is to keep a surprise birthday party a surprise. Now imagine that, but ongoing for years, and with thousands more people (including ex-employees) keeping their mouths shut. Yeah, people are too gossipy for that to be real.

        Honestly, people just make shit up because it fits something they want to believe.
        I read it on the Internet, and it makes me feel smart to know something that's supposed to be a secret. You must be wrong.

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        • I bet on the games being rigged and win.
          Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

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          • Originally posted by RashanGary View Post
            I bet on the games being rigged and win.
            Correlation is not causation.

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            • Originally posted by sharpe1027 View Post
              Correlation is not causation.
              Maybe. I by no means call you guys stupid and think I know it all like some others do. That’s possible. But I’ll make a likely to be rigged thread next year and call shots and see if you buy in after seeing it happen over and over
              Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

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              • Originally posted by RashanGary View Post
                Maybe. I by no means call you guys stupid and think I know it all like some others do. That’s possible. But I’ll make a likely to be rigged thread next year and call shots and see if you buy in after seeing it happen over and over
                How do you determine which way it's rigged?

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                • Originally posted by sharpe1027 View Post
                  How do you determine which way it's rigged?
                  Entrails and bribes.
                  All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed they must rely exclusively on force.

                  George Orwell

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                  • Originally posted by sharpe1027 View Post
                    How do you determine which way it's rigged?
                    Games that seem like easy money, like all bettors going one way.... I go the other.
                    Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

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                    • Media going in.... Everyone says one thing
                      Recent history.... Points one direction
                      Vegas odds look too good to be true


                      I go the opposite of extreme momentum and it's been a winning formula.
                      Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

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                      • Suspicious NFL people

                        Refs: Hussey, Kemp, whoever reffed the last two bucs games

                        Ariens, Gruden




                        All refs are sus on some level. Games with betting lines that seem too good to be true are always sus.
                        Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

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                        • Originally posted by RashanGary View Post
                          Media going in.... Everyone says one thing
                          Recent history.... Points one direction
                          Vegas odds look too good to be true


                          I go the opposite of extreme momentum and it's been a winning formula.
                          What you're describing seems to closely align with a betting strategy sometimes referred to as the contrarian method. It's not very good evidence of rigging.

                          Why do you think the odds to good to be true indicate rigging? Is it your opinion that is the bookies playing games to get lopsided bets on side to make more money? I am no expert, but those situations seem to occur as a result of too many people betting on the other side. The model of sports books is to get even money on each side.

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                          • Originally posted by sharpe1027 View Post
                            What you're describing seems to closely align with a betting strategy sometimes referred to as the contrarian method. It's not very good evidence of rigging.

                            Why do you think the odds to good to be true indicate rigging? Is it your opinion that is the bookies playing games to get lopsided bets on side to make more money? I am no expert, but those situations seem to occur as a result of too many people betting on the other side. The model of sports books is to get even money on each side.
                            He’s a rookie sports bettor obsessed with this method! While they are times to move in this direction it is not as simple as you describe. There are several other components needed to use and master this strategy.

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                            • Originally posted by GB-Brandon View Post
                              He’s a rookie sports bettor obsessed with this method! While they are times to move in this direction it is not as simple as you describe. There are several other components needed to use and master this strategy.
                              I use other components. I don’t do it often, only when it looks like the best setup. And when momentum is a certain level. They mix it up enough that you really have to have a feel to get away with it. But I do. Certain refs, certain types of betting momentum.

                              Sometimes I bet half my stack on -1000 ML. But I'm more likely to do that a week or two after a big upset.
                              Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

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                              • And often times I bet the spread on the upset team not the ML. It's a lot of variables that I have to consider, how might they fuck the most bettors and I go there.
                                Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

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