Official Packers at Buccaneers NFC Championship Game Thread

[Sparkey]

The great thing about a conspiracy is that it can never be proven false. Everything is just vague enough to prove nothing while obfuscating everything.

A conspiracy's biggest enemy is common sense.

Unfortunately, common sense seems to be lacking these days.

[run pMc]

What are we talking about? NFL games are fixed? LMAO

If that were true it would have leaked already.
Think about how hard it is to keep a surprise birthday party a surprise. Now imagine that, but ongoing for years, and with thousands more people (including ex-employees) keeping their mouths shut. Yeah, people are too gossipy for that to be real.

Honestly, people just make shit up because it fits something they want to believe.

[sharpe1027]

What are we talking about? NFL games are fixed? LMAO

If that were true it would have leaked already.
Think about how hard it is to keep a surprise birthday party a surprise. Now imagine that, but ongoing for years, and with thousands more people (including ex-employees) keeping their mouths shut. Yeah, people are too gossipy for that to be real.

Honestly, people just make shit up because it fits something they want to believe.

I read it on the Internet, and it makes me feel smart to know something that's supposed to be a secret. You must be wrong.

[RashanGary]

I bet on the games being rigged and win.

[sharpe1027]

I bet on the games being rigged and win.

Correlation is not causation.

[RashanGary]

Correlation is not causation.

Maybe. I by no means call you guys stupid and think I know it all like some others do. That’s possible. But I’ll make a likely to be rigged thread next year and call shots and see if you buy in after seeing it happen over and over

[sharpe1027]

Maybe. I by no means call you guys stupid and think I know it all like some others do. That’s possible. But I’ll make a likely to be rigged thread next year and call shots and see if you buy in after seeing it happen over and over

How do you determine which way it's rigged?

[Upnorth]

How do you determine which way it's rigged?

Entrails and bribes.

[RashanGary]

How do you determine which way it's rigged?

Games that seem like easy money, like all bettors going one way.... I go the other.

[RashanGary]

Media going in.... Everyone says one thing
Recent history.... Points one direction
Vegas odds look too good to be true


I go the opposite of extreme momentum and it's been a winning formula.

[RashanGary]

Suspicious NFL people

Refs: Hussey, Kemp, whoever reffed the last two bucs games

Ariens, Gruden




All refs are sus on some level. Games with betting lines that seem too good to be true are always sus.

[sharpe1027]

Media going in.... Everyone says one thing
Recent history.... Points one direction
Vegas odds look too good to be true


I go the opposite of extreme momentum and it's been a winning formula.

What you're describing seems to closely align with a betting strategy sometimes referred to as the contrarian method. It's not very good evidence of rigging.

Why do you think the odds to good to be true indicate rigging? Is it your opinion that is the bookies playing games to get lopsided bets on side to make more money? I am no expert, but those situations seem to occur as a result of too many people betting on the other side. The model of sports books is to get even money on each side.

[GB-Brandon]

What you're describing seems to closely align with a betting strategy sometimes referred to as the contrarian method. It's not very good evidence of rigging.

Why do you think the odds to good to be true indicate rigging? Is it your opinion that is the bookies playing games to get lopsided bets on side to make more money? I am no expert, but those situations seem to occur as a result of too many people betting on the other side. The model of sports books is to get even money on each side.

He’s a rookie sports bettor obsessed with this method! While they are times to move in this direction it is not as simple as you describe. There are several other components needed to use and master this strategy.

[RashanGary]

He’s a rookie sports bettor obsessed with this method! While they are times to move in this direction it is not as simple as you describe. There are several other components needed to use and master this strategy.

I use other components. I don’t do it often, only when it looks like the best setup. And when momentum is a certain level. They mix it up enough that you really have to have a feel to get away with it. But I do. Certain refs, certain types of betting momentum.

Sometimes I bet half my stack on -1000 ML. But I'm more likely to do that a week or two after a big upset.

[RashanGary]

And often times I bet the spread on the upset team not the ML. It's a lot of variables that I have to consider, how might they fuck the most bettors and I go there.