Who Should Gutey Draft At #29?

[bobblehead]

This is where we disagree. This is what I like about Radunz over some of the other guys (some who I project to be an OG or RT). I think he can play OT and I think he can play LT. He's slightly bigger than Bakh coming out. Athletically, he's tested quite a bit better in every category--except Bakh had him slightly in the 40 and bench press. (Note: Bakh's measurements came at the combine and Radunz's came at a Pro Day.) Bakh's arm were a little longer, but Radunz exceeds the OT threshold. So, he has enough size, athletic ability, and arm length to play OT. Radunz is one of the best zone run blockers in the draft. In the run game he can move, he finds people, and he looks to finish people. The question is his ability to handle power. He's light on the top end. However, the Senior Bowl answered some questions. He showed an ability to mirror. The biggest thing he showed was that he may be able to handle power. A lot of guys tried to use power moves on him and some were able to knock him back a bit, but he stalemated them because he has a strong base.

The other OTs projected to go late 1st or 2nd round also have some question marks. Jenkins might be a better fit in a power run game, Eichenberg's arm length didn't meet the LT threshold. Mayfield may not be athletic enough for MLF's scheme. Cosmi has some really good and really bad tape. Brown is raw. One guy that I want to look at more is Alex Leatherwood. He played LT for Alabama. Some project him to be an OG in the NFL, but my initial thought was that he could play OT.

I have mentioned that I like Leatherwood. He would be a fine RT. He is sort of tall for a guard. My take is something like this, and I stand by my assessment on Radunz. Radunz would be a better guard that Leatherwood would be a tackle. I see Radunz in the Mike Wahle, JC Tretter kind of mold. He doesn't look to me like he could wear 320 lbs. Leatherwood is a big dude, but doesn't have Radunz movement skills. His size will make him a decent NFL tackle and I think Radunz would be below average at tackle, but really good at guard.

So, it all goes back to Jenkins the RT for me. I can definitely live with Radunz in the 1st playing LG with Jenkins sliding to RT. The wildcard is still Yosh Nimjan. They kept him on the roster last year, so he must have taken a step. Did he work hard this offseason? Did he improve enough to start? He has LT ability and size. His skillset is elite, but elite talents have failed before. But like many things, we have NO way to know the answer.

edit: We have one way to have a hunch. They used Wagner in the playoffs. That tells me they didn't quite trust him last year.

[Fritz]

I left Caleb Farley out of the poll because I was pretty certain he would be drafted before the Packers pick. I'm starting to be less certain. We're talking about a guy who is arguably a top-10 talent, but who tore his ACL in 2017, opted out of the 2020 season, and had back surgery in March 2021. I wonder if Gute is inclined to roll the dice on a guy like this. The potential is there to have a pretty impenetrable pair of corners if you draft him.

The negatives I read about Farley really stick in my craw. I am hoping he's long gone by the time Gutes is even thinking of trading up or down.

[RashanGary]

A. The packers are really good at picking OL.
B. They brought over milt hendrickson from Baltimore two years ago who was Baltimore's OL guru and is now Gutes second in command. He helped select elgton
C. There are 5 OTs slotted around out pick


I hope it's an OL, but ill assume they really like someone else if it goes differently.

[jklowan]

PACKER TV just sent this out...

By now, Pro-Days have been completed, and Kent has been busy crunching RAS figures. With such a strong connection between who the Packers pick and that player having a high RAS, I wanted to go through position by position and list the players that meet this threshold.

While 8.0 has been the line in the sand, so to speak, I wanted to take it a step further and narrow the list down even more. So I threw out the scores that didn't qualify and averaged out the ones that did, and came to an average RAS per eligible draft pick of 9.1. This is the benchmark that I'll be using for this exercise.

By no means are these the only players on the Packers big board, there are players with a RAS below 9.1 that Green Bay will draft, and some of the players that are listed likely aren't even on the Packers' board. If you don't see your favorite player on here, keep in mind this has nothing to do with film or production; it's simply how they tested athletically, which, as we've seen, holds a lot of weight with Gutey. So I'd say chances are that there are some future Packers on this list.
Cornerback

Marco Wilson, Florida, 9.99
Paulson Adebo, Stanford, 9.56
Jaycee Horn, South Carolina, 9.99
Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia, 9.38
Nate Hobbs, Illinois, 9.61
Zech McPhearson, Texas Tech, 9.56
Patrick Surtain II, Alabama, 9.96
Brandon Stephens, Southern Methodist, 9.20
Jason Pinnock, Pittsburgh, 9.78
Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse, 9.70
Jeremy Bell, Charleston, 9.64
Greg Newsome, Northwestern, 9.66
Edge

Jayson Oweh, Penn State, 9.92
Joe Tryon, Washington, 9.30
Kwity Paye, Michigan, 9.34
Carlos Basham, Wake Forest, 9.39
Elerson Smith, Northern Iowa, 9.72
Jaelan Phillips, Miami, 9.87
Joseph Ossai, Texas, 9.49
Josh Kaindoh, Florida State, 9.59
Payton Turner, Houston, 9.74
Janarius Robinson, Florida State, 9.33
William Bradley-King, Baylor, 9.17
Interior Defensive Lineman

Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech, 9.96
TaQuon Graham, Texas, 9.68
Jonathan Marshall, Arkansas, 9.99
Bobby Brown, Texas A&M, 9.82
Safety

Jevon Holland, Oregon, 9.54
James Wiggins, Cincinnati, 9.70
Caden Sterns, Texas, 9.59
Darrick Forrest, Cincinnati, 9.69
Linebacker

Nick Niemann, Iowa, 9.51
Jamin Davis, Kentucky, 9.93
Buddy Johnson, Texas A&M, 9.22
Curtis Robinson, Stanford, 9.23
Baron Browning, Ohio State, 9.98
Pete Werner, Ohio State, 9.52
Interior Offensive Lineman

Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma, 10.0
Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater, 9.98
Drew Dalman, Stanford, 9.80
Chandon Herring, BYU, 9.84
Sadarius Hutcherson, South Carolina, 9.89
Ben Cleveland, Georgia, 9.63
Trey Smith, Tennessee, 9.91
Jordan Meredith, Western Kentucky, 9.35
Kendrick Greene, Illinois, 9.25
Offensive Tackle

Tommy Doyle, Miami (OH), 9.90
Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State, 9.74
Brady Christensen, BYU, 9.84
Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State, 9.28
Rashawn Slater, Northwestern, 9.71
Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa, 10.0
Samuel Cosmi, Texas, 9.99
Landon Young, Kentucky, 9.17
Quarterback

Feleipe Franks, Arkansas, 9.56
Running Back

Kene Nwangwu, Iowa State, 9.89
Jake Funk, Maryland, 9.76
Nathan McCrary, Saginaw Valley, 9.41
Travis Etienne, Clemson, 9.14
Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana, 9.51
Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Florida, 9.64
Brock Wright, Notre Dame, 9.20
Wide Receiver

Brandon Smith, Iowa, 9.16
Nico Collins, Michigan, 9.56
Jacob Harris, Central Florida, 9.88
Michael Strachan, Charleston, 9.22
Jalen Camp, Georgia Tech, 9.75
Tarik Black, Texas, 9.55
Simi Fehoko, Stanford, 9.18
Terrace Marshall, LSU, 9.76
BJ Emmons, Florida Atlantic, 9.22

Now that we've completed the list, I'll reiterate what I said above: RAS does not predict NFL success, and it doesn't mean that those not listed won't become excellent players. This article also doesn't mean that this is the extent of the players that the Packers could select; they will draft some players who scored below the 9.1 mark that I used. However, given how Gutekunst's first three drafts have gone, Packer fans should be aware of RAS and how it works.

[RashanGary]

jklowan,

Thanks for the list. The Packers do seem to take from the RAS list the last few years. There are guys who really develop late and end up better athletes than they tested in college. There are guys who are better football players than athletes. RAS, like you said, isn’t everything. But it does seem to be a part of the Packers equation.

[Joemailman]

Here are the RAS scores: https://relativeathleticscores.com/2...aft-class-ras/

OT: Mayfield one of the worst. All the other to guys we've talked about very good.

LB: Jamin Davis, Pete Werner, Zaven Collins and Koromoah all very good. Nick Bolton surprisingly bad.

CB: Horn, Surtain, Newsome, Adebo, Stokes, Joseph very good. Asante Samuel okay. Elijah Molden surprisingly bad.

[RashanGary]

Gute was asked to name a couple deep positions. He said OL and corner. Then he added that with players being able to opt in to another year of school, it’s a smaller class than usual. Maybe rounds 3-7 won’t be quite as impactful

[HarveyWallbangers]

jklowan,

Thanks for the list. The Packers do seem to take from the RAS list the last few years. There are guys who really develop late and end up better athletes than they tested in college. There are guys who are better football players than athletes. RAS, like you said, isn’t everything. But it does seem to be a part of the Packers equation.

I’d like to see the writer go more in depth. Each position values some traits over others—it’s not just a total RAS score. I’m going to get back to this when I have time. I’ve read articles on which tests are important at each position and I’ve tracked the Packers baseline in those tests since Ted Thompson took over

[Joemailman]

I’d like to see the writer go more in depth. Each position values some traits over others—it’s not just a total RAS score. I’m going to get back to this when I have time. I’ve read articles on which tests are important at each position and I’ve tracked the Packers baseline in those tests since Ted Thompson took over

Bakhtiari ranked only 26th among OT's in 2013. However, his agility score was good and his speed score was great. His explosion score was poor, especially vertical (broad jump was okay) and his size score was very poor. I remember analysts projecting him inside to Guard, probably because of his height, or lack thereof. Boy, were they wrong. https://relativeathleticscores.com/r...PlayerID=10479

[call_me_ishmael]

Bakhtiari ranked only 26th among OT's in 2013. However, his agility score was good and his speed score was great. His explosion score was poor, especially vertical (broad jump was okay) and his size score was very poor. I remember analysts projecting him inside to Guard, probably because of his height, or lack thereof. Boy, were they wrong. https://relativeathleticscores.com/r...PlayerID=10479

Wow, I never would have guessed he wasn't super explosive and that the scouts were saying that. I would think he would have crushed the agility drills to be so quick on his feet. Am I wrong in thinking he wins with his agility? I probably am.

[Fritz]

Gute was asked to name a couple deep positions. He said OL and corner. Then he added that with players being able to opt in to another year of school, it’s a smaller class than usual. Maybe rounds 3-7 won’t be quite as impactful

That signals that he's either going to trade those late-round picks to move up to get the guys he wants earlier...or that he thinks it's a deep draft and he's going to stockpile more late picks.

One or the other.

Ah, the NLF draft. It's like watching Spassky and Fischer play chess.

[bobblehead]

Bakhtiari ranked only 26th among OT's in 2013. However, his agility score was good and his speed score was great. His explosion score was poor, especially vertical (broad jump was okay) and his size score was very poor. I remember analysts projecting him inside to Guard, probably because of his height, or lack thereof. Boy, were they wrong. https://relativeathleticscores.com/r...PlayerID=10479

Bak figured out how to legally hold. Officials cracked down on holding for about half a season and he had a lot of flags. Now they are back to allowing his "technique" and he is great again. Bak is sort of a guy who toils and got a reputation and gets away with more than other younger guys (NBA style). If you put him next to Trent Williams or Anthony Castonzo he just doesn't look as smooth. Honestly its sort of a luck/miracle/persistence that has allowed him to become an elite LT. He is the Richard Sherman of LTs.

[Joemailman]

That signals that he's either going to trade those late-round picks to move up to get the guys he wants earlier...or that he thinks it's a deep draft and he's going to stockpile more late picks.

One or the other.

Ah, the NLF draft. It's like watching Spassky and Fischer play chess.

In 3 drafts, Gute has made a total of 1 4th round pick, and that was for J'Mon Moore. Those 2 4th round picks he has might be as good as gone.

[Fritz]

For Ted, I think the third round was his big failure. He should've traded all those away.

So on that theory, yes, trade those fourths to move up and get a guy you really like.I think I read that those two could move you up about five spots or so in the first. I wonder how far those two picks could move you in the second?

[Bretsky]

Trade all the 4ths and the dam 3rds and get into that second round.