Monday is a Big Day

[th87]

What if he hits? It's not like they would have blown a top 10 pick on him. Most picks late in the first round don't even make a Pro Bowl. But, again, what if he hits? Ron Wolf and scouts under the Wolf tree (Thompson, McKenzie, Dorsey, Schneider) have done well drafting QBs. Favre (technically, not a draft pick, but he fits here), Brunell, Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks, Rodgers, Wilson, Derek Carr, Mahomes, maybe Baker Mayfield.

In the last 10 years, franchise QBs picked in the bottom half of the first round or lower: Wilson, Cousins (debatable), Prescott, Jackson. That's 4 out of like 80 total QBs picked.

This is not worth imploding legit SB chances for.

[RashanGary]

In the last 10 years, franchise QBs picked in the bottom half of the first round or lower: Wilson, Cousins (debatable), Prescott, Jackson. That's 4 out of like 80 total QBs picked.

This is not worth imploding legit SB chances for.

Hey man, You say 3 firsts for Rodgers is like selling a super bowl shot for a chance at Sherrod, Harrell and Datone Jones, but then in the next breath, 1 1st and a 4th for Love is imploding super bowl chances. Can it really be both??

As far as Love goes, I don't think they would have picked him if they didn't think he was a good player. I don't think 6% is the correct odds.

[RashanGary]

I think the wolf GM tree does better than league average. They know something about QB play. It at least doubles the Love odds over league average.

Just like the Packers do better than average on OL or top 3 round receivers. Some GMs are better than others.

[th87]

Hey man, You say 3 firsts for Rodgers is like selling a super bowl shot for a chance at Sherrod, Harrell and Datone Jones, but then in the next breath, 1 1st and a 4th for Love is imploding super bowl chances. Can it really be both??

As far as Love goes, I don't think they would have picked him if they didn't think he was a good player. I don't think 6% is the correct odds.

Nah, I'm saying trading Rodgers now (or soon) in anticipation of Love being good is imploding SB chances. Drafting him was somewhat dumb, but survivable. Even if you use the pick on a Datone Jones, he would contribute more than Love did in 2020.

[th87]

I think the wolf GM tree does better than league average. They know something about QB play. It at least doubles the Love odds over league average.

Just like the Packers do better than average on OL or top 3 round receivers. Some GMs are better than others.

Fair point. We'll see.

[RashanGary]

Fair point. We'll see.

Yeah. I'm far from having my mind made up on that pick. I'm almost always hopeful, but I'm let down a lot too.

[call_me_ishmael]

Hey man, You say 3 firsts for Rodgers is like selling a super bowl shot for a chance at Sherrod, Harrell and Datone Jones, but then in the next breath, 1 1st and a 4th for Love is imploding super bowl chances. Can it really be both??

As far as Love goes, I don't think they would have picked him if they didn't think he was a good player. I don't think 6% is the correct odds.

The question is what is successful? Do I think he'll be Matt Stafford or Matt Ryan or a top 8ish QB? I think the odds are not very good of that, maybe 20%. I would strongly bet against.

As to your claim the Packers are better with QBs, I would push back and say where is there any evidence of that? Yes, they nailed Favre and Rodgers. That's two guys in 30 years though. I don't think that is really a big enough sample size. Lots of Packers QB draft picks have been ass and turned over very quickly - see Brian Brohm, UCLA guy, Notre Dame guy, etc.

[Freak Out]

What? you short sighted youngster.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The question is what is successful? Do I think he'll be Matt Stafford or Matt Ryan or a top 8ish QB? I think the odds are not very good of that, maybe 20%. I would strongly bet against.

As to your claim the Packers are better with QBs, I would push back and say where is there any evidence of that? Yes, they nailed Favre and Rodgers. That's two guys in 30 years though. I don't think that is really a big enough sample size. Lots of Packers QB draft picks have been ass and turned over very quickly - see Brian Brohm, UCLA guy, Notre Dame guy, etc.

Matt Hasselbeck made 3 Pro Bowls as a 6th round pick. Mark Brunell made 3 Pro Bowls as a 5th round pick. Aaron Brooks is in the Saints Hall of Fame as a 4th round pick. Patrick Mahomes is a stud. Derek Carr has made 3 Pro Bowl as a 2nd round pick. Russell Wilson is a Hall of Famer as a 3rd round pick. Baker Mayfield is solid, but just okay for where he was drafted. At least, he's not Josh Rosen. These were QBs drafted by Wolf or execs that worked under him (McKenzie, Dorsey, and Schneider). Gutebag started under Wolf too. They missed on Brohm, but in the same draft hit on a long-time solid backup in Matt Flynn in the 7th round.

I'm kind of leaning towards a trade with the Raiders. They have a couple of younger guys that I'd be interested and I think the draft picks would be higher than the Broncos. I'm actually intrigued by Derek Carr. With a good roster I think you could win a Super Bowl with him. His contract is about perfect for our situation. He has two years left at less than $20M/year, and they could cut him next year (if Love shows he's ready) without any dead cap money eaten. Carr has had some good, Pro Bowl caliber years, but I think he could really take off getting out of Las Vegas--much like Ryan Tannehill with the Titans.

[sharpe1027]

Someone arguing it's really hard to find a QB, the most important position on the field, is making a great argument for why you draft Love if you believe the 2018 version is the real deal.

[th87]

Someone arguing it's really hard to find a QB, the most important position on the field, is making a great argument for why you draft Love if you believe the 2018 version is the real deal.

Nigh impossible outside of the top 10.

Most (possibly all) busts were studs in college.

[sharpe1027]

Nigh impossible outside of the top 10.

Most (possibly all) busts were studs in college.

Exactly why you have to take a shot when you think a top 10 dropped in your lap. Aaron Rodgers sound familiar?

[th87]

Matt Hasselbeck made 3 Pro Bowls as a 6th round pick. Mark Brunell made 3 Pro Bowls as a 5th round pick. Aaron Brooks is in the Saints Hall of Fame as a 4th round pick. Patrick Mahomes is a stud. Derek Carr has made 3 Pro Bowl as a 2nd round pick. Russell Wilson is a Hall of Famer as a 3rd round pick. Baker Mayfield is solid, but just okay for where he was drafted. At least, he's not Josh Rosen. These were QBs drafted by Wolf or execs that worked under him (McKenzie, Dorsey, and Schneider). Gutebag started under Wolf too. They missed on Brohm, but in the same draft hit on a long-time solid backup in Matt Flynn in the 7th round.

I'm kind of leaning towards a trade with the Raiders. They have a couple of younger guys that I'd be interested and I think the draft picks would be higher than the Broncos. I'm actually intrigued by Derek Carr. With a good roster I think you could win a Super Bowl with him. His contract is about perfect for our situation. He has two years left at less than $20M/year, and they could cut him next year (if Love shows he's ready) without any dead cap money eaten. Carr has had some good, Pro Bowl caliber years, but I think he could really take off getting out of Las Vegas--much like Ryan Tannehill with the Titans.

This is a compelling point. But you have QB busts in Seattle under Thompson, and Gute really liked Kizer, and TT liked Hundley.

[HarveyWallbangers]

This is a compelling point. But you have QB busts in Seattle under Thompson, and Gute really liked Kizer, and TT liked Hundley.

Which QB busts in Seattle? We don't know how much Gute liked Kizer to be honest. We traded a bag of peanuts to kick the tires there (Randall had worn out his welcome here, and had proven to be a jag--and he wasn't a guy Gutebag drafted). Hundley was a 5th round pick, so TT apparently didn't like him that much.

[Jaire]

Finally watched the interview.

Rodgers is just pushing for a long term contract again where he can't be traded. Pretty clear to me that Gute has to go. He's much more replacable than Rodgers and I'm not happy with his last 2 drafts. The FO needs an overall. Brandon is right: they are clueless and arrogant.