Official Packers Offseason/Free Agency Thread

[RashanGary]

The downside of void years and push ahead contracts is that the team eventually has to cut ties with players and they won

[jklowan]

Jones’ Restructure Creates Massive 2023 Problem
It is hardly a surprise that the Packers decided to rework the payout of Jones’ contract given how limited they were on in-house restructure options. Pushing money down the road into future seasons is one of the easiest ways for teams to keep together a quality roster, as they demonstrated during the 2021 offseason. The problem with restructuring Jones’ deal, though, is how quickly the cost of keeping him will rise.
While the Packers have reduced Jones’ cap hit by about $3.08 million for the upcoming year, the consequence is that Jones will now carry a massive $20.013 million cap hit for the 2023 season — which is nearly triple his original cap hit and would be the largest cap hit of any NFL running back. That’s an absurd amount of money for a running back, especially with a 2020 second-rounder in AJ Dillon waiting in the wings to become the primary starter.
Now, that doesn’t mean the Packers couldn’t figure out a way to keep Jones beyond the 2022 season, but it also means there can be no indecision with him in 2023. They will need to either sign him to a new extension that reduces his overall cap charge or move on from him altogether, the latter of which could save them between $10.4 million and $16 million depending on if/when they release him during the 2023 offseason.

[jklowan]

Nothing is for free, so Jones will be gone after next year, all to keep the DramaLama around to loose another round one playoff game, sounds like a good trade right tex, you'll get your 10-12 wins LOL

[King Friday]

Nothing is for free, so Jones will be gone after next year, all to keep the DramaLama around to loose another round one playoff game, sounds like a good trade right tex, you'll get your 10-12 wins LOL

If we go the Tex route, in 3 years just about everyone on the roster will be gone, and the Packers will be one of the worst teams in the league. You can't kick the can down the road forever, and the Packers started kicking it well before now. Pretty soon you are staring at a crazy amount of dead money, and you wind up where the Saints are. Your coach leaves. You have no future.

If Rodgers played worth a damn in the postseason, it might be worth it. His inferior postseason play means it would be more prudent to move on.

[call_me_ishmael]

Cap Gurus - what is the deal with this contract?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/josh-allen-25102/

Is this a new thing where money other than signing bonus is truly guaranteed? Perhaps I am missing something but given that he has only a 6M signing bonus, how is there 100M in dead money at certain points in the contract?

[NewsBruin]

Cap Gurus - what is the deal with this contract?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/josh-allen-25102/

Is this a new thing where money other than signing bonus is truly guaranteed? Perhaps I am missing something but given that he has only a 6M signing bonus, how is there 100M in dead money at certain points in the contract?

I'll take a stab before my betters arrive: He has minimal salary the first season (2021). The signing bonus is $16M, paid now, split into $3.3M chunks across the cap for the next five seasons. He has an extra $3M in signing bonus ($6M total) in 2021, which must have been the last part of his rookie contract's signing bonus. The rest of the bonus money is gigantic roster bonuses in 2024 and 2025, which can be converted to signing bonuses if the Bills' cap is tight. A roster bonus or a reworked signing bonus: the check would deposit the same in Allen's account, but the cost against the cap could be split out across five seasons if it becomes a signing bonus.

His salary for the next two seasons (2022 & 2023) and roster bonus for the season after that (2024) is already guaranteed, so that's already on the cap for those seasons. Half of his 2024 salary is guaranteed this spring/summer (2022), so that'll get slapped onto the 2024 books. The other half gets guaranteed next spring/summer (2023). They'll do the same guarantee thing with his 2025 salary in 2024.

2022 and 2023 don't have roster bonuses, but large guaranteed salary. The Bills don't have the option of splitting those up onto later years' caps as a reworked signing bonus, but they have the real-world luxury of paying it out in game checks, rather than a lump sum in the summer.

It looks like all the in-advance guarantees are done after 2025, so 2026-2028 are purely pay-as-you-go (probably voidable), with maybe some of the roster-turned-signing bonuses being counted against the cap on those later seasons if 2021-2025 has some tight cap years.

2026-2028 numbers are just there to give folks something to look at, but those will change with contract extensions depending on those seasons' Cap, Allen's talent/health and any other QB drama between now and then.

[NewsBruin]

There's nothing that prevents NFL teams from guaranteeing any part of a contract ahead of time; they just don't do it, and nobody wants to be the first one to fart in church.

I think Kirk Cousins was the first (and only?) player to get a fully guaranteed multi-season contract when he signed with the Vikings. For everyone else, it's a matter of how much is guaranteed and how far in advance the guarantees kick in.

[bobblehead]

OK, granted it didn't mention those two there. I think I was referring to the Basaraki thing in YouTube that did include those two.

It's becoming clear, this article and the YouTube thing plus what I say plus everything coming from the mouth of LaFleur and Gutekunst are saying it CAN be done, and probably without serious consequences down the line, and on the other side of the argument, you have most of the media dipshits as well a lot of posters in here who just don't comprehend the cap saying the opposite. I'll take that split hahahaha.

I comprehend math and finances just fine. And I'll discount what the brass says, because they can't say anything else for a multitude of reasons I shouldn't have to go over. If you restructure the list of guys in that article, the salary becomes bonus and is spread over the remaining deal. For every $ you save in 2022 you lose it going forward. Every time you do that it weakens your ability to bring in talent in future seasons. That is fact and its indisputable.

[bobblehead]

Andrew Brandt just said this on Twitter

Have noticed this both while working for a team and since:
Fans and media worry a lot more about NFL teams' Cap issues than the teams do themselves.

That is because I will be a fan in 2029, but if they don't win NOW most teams leadership will be gone in 2 years. Look at Brian Flores. The dolphins went FULL rebuild. Traded anyone and everyone. He won 7 of his last 8 as it was paying off with a lot of young talent. He got fired.

Every coach and GM has incentive to mortgage the future because the future is ALWAYS now for them. Only a few teams approach it differently and sustain a winning team. They tend to win the same # of titles without being forced to go into the tank. Teams like TB, Denver and the Rams all went the tank and find a QB after we have a talented young roster approach. It works to win titles, but you end up with 4 win seasons in there. TB has cap issues now. KC is feeling the Maholmes contract. The rams might win 2 games in 2023. Denver has done the rebuild of talent after going through the cycle full circle. But the Manning and Brady scenario only offer themselves up every so often. And when you fail to land them you get shitty seasons and no rings.

[bobblehead]

Clark restructured. Save 10.8 million on 2022cap.

Translation. Take 3.5 million away from 2023, 2024 and 2025 cap.

See tex, I understand how it works just fine.

[bobblehead]

Packer fans were so disappointed in the playoff loss, the common sentiment was to blow it up and give up on Rodgers.

But as time churns on, I think that looks more and more an emotional swing.

Running it back and taking another shot seems most reasonable. By the time the cap catches up to us, Rodgers will be 41 or 42 years old and it will be time to find a new one anyway. A couple losing seasons would be good for finding a QB in the draft.

Go all in now and rebuild after Rodgers. That has to be the plan.

If you believe that Love isn't the answer AND you don't have a bunch of young talent, yes. If you have yound studs at LT (and all across the OL) both CB, Edge, RB....I'm not so sure.

Also, if I hadn't seen what actually happened in the last 2 playoff games. Seeing Rodgers call a timeout to get his RB on the field for ONE PLAY a season after seeing us abandon the run the minute Jones got hurt....Well, I no longer have faith in winning an Owl with Rodgers.

[bobblehead]

Jones’ Restructure Creates Massive 2023 Problem
It is hardly a surprise that the Packers decided to rework the payout of Jones’ contract given how limited they were on in-house restructure options. Pushing money down the road into future seasons is one of the easiest ways for teams to keep together a quality roster, as they demonstrated during the 2021 offseason. The problem with restructuring Jones’ deal, though, is how quickly the cost of keeping him will rise.
While the Packers have reduced Jones’ cap hit by about $3.08 million for the upcoming year, the consequence is that Jones will now carry a massive $20.013 million cap hit for the 2023 season — which is nearly triple his original cap hit and would be the largest cap hit of any NFL running back. That’s an absurd amount of money for a running back, especially with a 2020 second-rounder in AJ Dillon waiting in the wings to become the primary starter.
Now, that doesn’t mean the Packers couldn’t figure out a way to keep Jones beyond the 2022 season, but it also means there can be no indecision with him in 2023. They will need to either sign him to a new extension that reduces his overall cap charge or move on from him altogether, the latter of which could save them between $10.4 million and $16 million depending on if/when they release him during the 2023 offseason.

And his base salary is 8.1 million which means you keep him for $20 million against the cap, or you cut him for 12 million against the cap. Tex, am I understanding how this works?

[Upnorth]

Translation. Take 3.5 million away from 2023, 2024 and 2025 cap.

See tex, I understand how it works just fine.

This year we have 8.2 million in dead money. Most of it from last year's all in. That's 4% of the cap burnt. That's an Amos level.player not on the roster.
So far next year is almost 0 dead cap.
How bad do we make it???

[bobblehead]

This year we have 8.2 million in dead money. Most of it from last year's all in. That's 4% of the cap burnt. That's an Amos level.player not on the roster.
So far next year is almost 0 dead cap.
How bad do we make it???

Here's my final thought on the issue. If you rebuild now, you take advantage of another GM who is "all in" and must give up too much for a 39 year old QB. Since you accept a bad year, you can tag and trade Adams as well.

Then you start to rebuild with a ton of quality picks and a good base of players.

If you stretch it out another year (and thats about all we can at this point.), you MIGHT win a ring, but then you face several years of declining results. You still have Rodgers who you had to commit to for a new contract, probably still have Adams for awhile, but you can't really keep much of anyone young. You will lose a Cory Lindsly here and a D Campbell there. You will continue to decay slowly. Like I said, the Saints from 2018 to present. They tried to hold on. They didn't win. Now they have ZERO chance of winning and lose a nice player or 2 each season. Then the stud WR becomes a malcontent because he isn't getting a shiny new contract he wants. The coach reads the writing on the wall and darts. Now you are in full rebuild without the assets.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Here's my final thought on the issue. If you rebuild now, you take advantage of another GM who is "all in" and must give up too much for a 39 year old QB. Since you accept a bad year, you can tag and trade Adams as well.

Then you start to rebuild with a ton of quality picks and a good base of players.

If you stretch it out another year (and thats about all we can at this point.), you MIGHT win a ring, but then you face several years of declining results. You still have Rodgers who you had to commit to for a new contract, probably still have Adams for awhile, but you can't really keep much of anyone young. You will lose a Cory Lindsly here and a D Campbell there. You will continue to decay slowly. Like I said, the Saints from 2018 to present. They tried to hold on. They didn't win. Now they have ZERO chance of winning and lose a nice player or 2 each season. Then the stud WR becomes a malcontent because he isn't getting a shiny new contract he wants. The coach reads the writing on the wall and darts. Now you are in full rebuild without the assets.

Zero chance? Zero chance is my odds of mating with Jennifer Lawrence or Jennifer Hudson. The Aints, without their “stud” WR, single-handily annihilated our beloved Packers last season. They had a chance of “winning” until Winston was lost for the season.

Brees’ contract wasn’t intended to plug the Aints into a “cap hell.” Normally, via rapidly increasing revenues in the NFL, the cap would increase large enough annually that Brees’ contract woulda been immaterial within the Aints books.

The NFL is a monopoly with favorable tax exemptions, ever-soaring revenues and titanic TV contracts. There’s no such fuck as a cap hell anymore. But let’s be delusional like alotta uncool NFL fans out there and pretend that cap hells do exist. There’s only one logical reason for why the Aints are dwelling in the cap hell, and that reason is an abnormality.

The….(see Onion thread in FYI).