2022 NFL Draft Talk

[run pMc]

People said Rashan Gary wasn't all that productive. Packers went with elite athleticism. Like Gary, Mafe wouldn't need to start right away.

Difference being Gary and Mafe are essentially the same age now.
I could see them taking Mafe in R2 or R3 if he's there, but I have a hard time imagining them taking him in R1. Gute likes to bet on upside, and when you're a late blooming 24 year old, you might not have much upside left before you hit 30 and your downside.

Re: Jenkins -- that's an interesting point. He was taken R2 (vs. R1) as a 23 yo (turned 24 Dec rookie season) not sure if being Day 2 vs. Day 1 mattered. I also wonder if the age thing is position relative; OL can play well into their 30's... you don't see many OLBs performing at a high level past 31 or 32.

[Joemailman]

Difference being Gary and Mafe are essentially the same age now.
I could see them taking Mafe in R2 or R3 if he's there, but I have a hard time imagining them taking him in R1. Gute likes to bet on upside, and when you're a late blooming 24 year old, you might not have much upside left before you hit 30 and your downside.

Re: Jenkins -- that's an interesting point. He was taken R2 (vs. R1) as a 23 yo (turned 24 Dec rookie season) not sure if being Day 2 vs. Day 1 mattered. I also wonder if the age thing is position relative; OL can play well into their 30's... you don't see many OLBs performing at a high level past 31 or 32.

I don't think they would take Mafe in Round 1 either. I was just pointing out that they may consider elite athleticism over college production because college production can sometimes be affected by the kind of system a player is playing in. Rashan Gary being an example.

My guess is Packers will be making a selection in the 1st half of the second round. I just don't know if they will get there by trading down from 28 or by trading up from 53.

[Bretsky]

Still pounding the table for top two picks to be WR's.

Gut got us in this horrible position and now we need to get out of it.

Draft a WR pick 22, and then trade 28 back to mid 30's and there pick Watson, Moore, Pickens...Pierce....other Bama WR.....etc.

Odds are strong those guys are gone by pick 53 so trade back some and take your pick !

[Deputy Nutz]

How did Gute get us in this horrible position? Paying your QB 50 million a year, and then having to pay your #1 receiver over 25 million dollars a year as he is close to turning 30 would put this team in a financial situation that gives them very little wiggle room. You can't trade a guy with such a large contract with so much up front money.

Having top talent that won't take team friendly numbers ala Tom Brady is what put the Packers in this position. Whether we paid Adams last year or this year wouldn't have made a difference. Last year it was all about making Arod happy.

[red]

Good lord. How long until some "expert" factors in "injury recovery speed" as a factor in evaluation?

I think there's got to be some correlation between hair color or penis length and the likelihood of success in the NFL. Somebody's just got to find it.

i've been thinking a lot late about how stupid the pre draft process has become. every body part measured, every movement timed, every psychological test in the book run. every millisecond of tape watched a thousand times

and still teams suck just as bad as always about figuring out who will make it and who will bust out

[run pMc]

I don't think they would take Mafe in Round 1 either. I was just pointing out that they may consider elite athleticism over college production because college production can sometimes be affected by the kind of system a player is playing in. Rashan Gary being an example.

My guess is Packers will be making a selection in the 1st half of the second round. I just don't know if they will get there by trading down from 28 or by trading up from 53.

Your guess is as good as anyone's, and probably better than Mel Kiper's lol.
I guess to argue against myself, it's possible they do draft a slightly older prospect because a lot of players stayed in school and are coming out as "super seniors". I'd still be a little concerned about some of those prospects depending on their production and the position they played.

Rashan Gary is a fascinating case -- I didn't like the pick (thought he was too boom-or-bust risky) and have eaten my crow there. I think the number of "freak" athletes without production who pan out is not that high. The further thing that's interesting about Gary was that I heard Gary got all the attention and double teams while Winovich got the sacks. IIRC Winovich was cut by NE this off season.

I guess if Maye or some similar older prospect is clearly getting a lot of attention/double teams/chips then that counts for something.
I won't say much more about Maye specifically or use him as an example -- I'm afraid I'll reverse jinx it and Gute will pick him lol.

For similar rated player, I will say I prefer the PSU Ebekitie kid over Maye and leave it at that.

At the end of the day, I'll root for whomever they pick. I cheer for the Packers.

[RashanGary]

With our first rounders I think its gonna be guys all the draft publications have as second rounders. And not a WR. Everyone is gonna freak out like they do every year.

I think we move up in the second for one of those high value second round receivers.

[Bretsky]

How did Gute get us in this horrible position? Paying your QB 50 million a year, and then having to pay your #1 receiver over 25 million dollars a year as he is close to turning 30 would put this team in a financial situation that gives them very little wiggle room. You can't trade a guy with such a large contract with so much up front money.

Having top talent that won't take team friendly numbers ala Tom Brady is what put the Packers in this position. Whether we paid Adams last year or this year wouldn't have made a difference. Last year it was all about making Arod happy.

Gute is responsible for the Packers WR core. He got us here by neglecting to get a true #2 WR. So when we lose Adams the loss is bigger. He picked the wrong WR last year in round 3, and nelgected the position in other drafts.

[Deputy Nutz]

How can you determine after one season that it was the wrong wr in the the 3rd round? If your expectations are that a 3rd round receiver is going to come into the league and make an impact year one you are being a bit delusional. Receiver is an over valued position anyways with the Packers. ARod and Favre make receivers special, not the other way around.

[Joemailman]

How can you determine after one season that it was the wrong wr in the the 3rd round? If your expectations are that a 3rd round receiver is going to come into the league and make an impact year one you are being a bit delusional. Receiver is an over valued position anyways with the Packers. ARod and Favre make receivers special, not the other way around.

And it sounds like Amari Rodgers played at his college weight last year and Packers want him lighter and quicker. Hope to see a more explosive player this year.

[Upnorth]

How can you determine after one season that it was the wrong wr in the the 3rd round? If your expectations are that a 3rd round receiver is going to come into the league and make an impact year one you are being a bit delusional. Receiver is an over valued position anyways with the Packers. ARod and Favre make receivers special, not the other way around.

I think we have more great players on our roster that took time to develop than great out of the gate.
I think that is true for all rosters.
Amari will be solid at the least. we link him to st, and that is an automatic down grade for us and we view him as worse because of it.
I expect him.to be a reliable (not great just good) slot receiver this season.
Who ever we take as a wr (or preferably wrs) will likely struggle and not be the main solution this year. Our main solution is likely already on the roster.

[texaspackerbacker]

How can you determine after one season that it was the wrong wr in the the 3rd round? If your expectations are that a 3rd round receiver is going to come into the league and make an impact year one you are being a bit delusional. Receiver is an over valued position anyways with the Packers. ARod and Favre make receivers special, not the other way around.

Good Post, although judging a kick/punt returner after one season is a little more valid.

[Joemailman]

To totally confuse the roster situation, Gute could draft Armani Rogers, a developmental TE out of Ohio. He was a 6-5, 225 pound running QB who played at UNLV and Ohio. Making the move to TE.

Probably won't be drafted, but Robert Tonyan had a similar career path.

[RashanGary]

3 days and we get two first round picks. Woot!

[Joemailman]

This graph shows Gutekunst places a high importance in athleticism (see RAS scores), and is more willing than many GM's to draft older players.