Receiving corps(e)

[MadScientist]

After losing Adams and MVS, nearly half of the receiving yards from last year, there is a big question of who is going to catch the ball this year. So here's a look at the Packers receiving corps (or corpse since they are mostly a collection of stiffs).

WR's
1) Lazard - has shown the ability of a 2-3 receiver so far, but he has the best combination of talent and experience in the offense the Packers have - 750 yards
2) Cobb - aging, slower and not great at getting open any more. There because Rodgers want's him - 325 yards
3) Watkins - Looked great in 2015. Since then mostly injured and ineffective. Maybe he's lightning in a bottle, but more likely piss in a specimen bottle - 400 yards
4) Rodgers - Worthless last year. Maybe the puff pieces are right, but not likely. Probably makes the roster - 100 yards (cut mid-season if nobody gets injured)
5) Watson - Most physically talented receiver in years. Only lesser college, and Rodgers demands perfection, so not too much this year - 450 yards (only if he can get a few deep ones)
6) Doubs - Rookie, but not nearly as gifted as Watson - 325 yards
7) Toure - Rookie, there for special teams - 50 yards
8) Winfree - PS, but comes up when someone gets injured - 100 yards
WR total = 2500

Tight Ends
1) Tonyan - Coming off injury that usually takes a year to heal and more to return to form - 175 yards
2) Lewis - Old cars just don't run like new ones - 125 yards
3) Deguara - Was he not fully recovered last year, or just a guy? Guessing JAG - 225 yards
4) Dafney - Can he play? Can he stay on the field? - 100 yards
5) Davis - Despite puff pieces, probably ST - 50 yards
TE total - 500

Running Backs
1) Jones - Loads of talent. Overuse (and therefore injury) biggest concern. 350 yards
2) Dillon - See Jones, but not quite as fast - 300 yards.
RB total 650

other -250
That puts the Packers at 3900 - 600 less than last year.

The receiving talent is just not there for the Packers. In order to make up for the missing yards, Rodgers is going to have to give up his demands for MM-esq pre-snap reads and fully embrace the MLF offense of motion and scheming receivers open.

[Joemailman]

Rodgers has already said that without Adams the offense will have to change. By his own admission he can be headstrong. But he's not stupid. He will change and probably relishes the opportunity to prove doubters wrong.

I expect the passing yards to be about the same as last year. Just more evenly distributed. Watkins, if he can stay healthy, has more left than people think. He was off to a good start in a neanderthal Ravens offense before he got hurt.

The Packers will move the ball. The key is whether they can improve on their #19 ranking in red zone efficiency from 2021.

[Upnorth]

I believe rodgers is one of the most underrated players in the league based on what we have seen.

It's not that he has look great or even good. It's that we have 8 or 14 total snaps at wr...
He is poor on st. Completely different animal than wr. He is on my x Factor list.
The other most under rated recieving threat we have (imo) is dillion.
Jones gets (and deserves) lots of hype but most advanced stat sites have dillion as a better pass catcher. I think he might be as good or almost as good as Jones and that is a massive complement. I expect at least 400 yards from each of our rbs. Which is going to be a postive on Watson and rodgers efficiency.

[texaspackerbacker]

Upnorth, Rodgers is "one of the most underrated players in the league"? I'm an optimist, but that's a little bit over the top hahahaha.

Joe, you didn't even include one of my favorites, Malik Taylor. At very least, he'd be above Winfrey, although I wouldn't be surprised if neither makes the 53.

I think Watson is gonna get the most yards - more than double your 450 figure. Your Lazard number is probably about right. Watkins could anywhere from getting cut to nearly a thousand yards. I'd agree, your 400 figure is about right. Doubs will get more or less depending on how bad or good Watkins is.

All in all, I think Rodgers throws for well over your 3,900 figure. I agree, he will and should do things his way in combination with a lot of LaFleur principles too. LaFleur had the good sense to subordinate his way to some extent because of Rodgers, and I expect that again. We will undoubtedly run the ball more, although still way less than passing it.

I expect 7 WRs to be kept with 2, maybe even 3 more on the practice squad.

[Upnorth]

The rodgers I refer to is amari. Not Aaron.
If watkins isnt injured he is going to touch 1000. Big if.

[MadScientist]

Tex, Malik Taylor showed nothing as a receiver in two years, and will turn 27 this year. I didn't include him as I don't think he will make the team. But he might get the yards I said Winfree would get.

Upnorth, the only Packers receiver who turned out good after having a rookie year as bad as Amari was Driver, and Driver was extremely raw when then took him in the 7th. Unless Amari has gotten much faster, and much better at getting open, I suspect he will wash out at some point this year. As for Watkins, football players rarely get healthier after several injury filled years. And even if he is healthy, I don't see him reverting back to the way he was 7-8 years ago.

As for Aaron Rodgers, he said the offense will look different, but will it just be not having one guy be the primary read all the time, or will he fully embrace the MLF offense. I hope the latter, given how SF showed his pre-snap reads can be hacked by a good defense.

I hope I'm wrong, but I really see receivers as the big weakness of this team.

[ThunderDan]

Tex, Malik Taylor showed nothing as a receiver in two years, and will turn 27 this year. I didn't include him as I don't think he will make the team. But he might get the yards I said Winfree would get.

Upnorth, the only Packers receiver who turned out good after having a rookie year as bad as Amari was Driver, and Driver was extremely raw when then took him in the 7th. Unless Amari has gotten much faster, and much better at getting open, I suspect he will wash out at some point this year. As for Watkins, football players rarely get healthier after several injury filled years. And even if he is healthy, I don't see him reverting back to the way he was 7-8 years ago.

As for Aaron Rodgers, he said the offense will look different, but will it just be not having one guy be the primary read all the time, or will he fully embrace the MLF offense. I hope the latter, given how SF showed his pre-snap reads can be hacked by a good defense.

I hope I'm wrong, but I really see receivers as the big weakness of this team.

I do too.

We really need one of the rookie WRs to come in and contribute right away somewhere in the 800 yard, 6 TD area.

[Upnorth]

Full stop wr is the biggest area of weakness, and that is our only blatant weakness
But optimistic upnorth feels like it may not be fire and brimstone bad

[MadScientist]

I do too.

We really need one of the rookie WRs to come in and contribute right away somewhere in the 800 yard, 6 TD area.

That would put them in Sharpe/Lofton territory. I don't think there have been any other Packers rookies to put up numbers like that.

[ThunderDan]

That would put them in Sharpe/Lofton territory. I don't think there have been any other Packers rookies to put up numbers like that.

I know but we need it or I really think this year is going to be a long one.

[MadScientist]

I know but we need it or I really think this year is going to be a long one.

Don't hold your breath.

They absolutely have to lean on motion and scheming receivers open. Watson is the only one with the tools to beat single coverage, but he's raw. The only way he gets those numbers is for the Packers to reduce his playbook to a few deep routes that he really does well, and scheme him to isolate him 1 on 1 with a slower our shorter back.

[RashanGary]

It

[Joemailman]

That would put them in Sharpe/Lofton territory. I don't think there have been any other Packers rookies to put up numbers like that.

Due to the players the Packers have had at the position over the last 20 years though, no Packer rookie WR has had the opportunity that a guy like Watson could have this year. Basically every year for the last 2 decades, the Packers have had entering the season, a WR who was not only a true #1, but top 10 in the NFL.

MVS had nearly 600 yards receiving as a rookie in 2018. I don't find it so hard to believe that Watson could have a better rookie year than what MVS had.

[texaspackerbacker]

The reason the passing game and the receiving corps won't be bad is, of course, Aaron Rodgers. I'm on record as saying, and I say again, Christian Watson will have a better season and MUCH better next 3-5 years playing with Rodgers than Davante Adams will have playing with Carr - because Rodgers makes receivers, including Adams great. And Watson has better tools than just about anybody else. I hadn't heard much about Doubs before the Packers drafted him, but apparently he has the makings of a good receiver too with Rodgers throwing to him.

[run pMc]

Derek Carr threw for 4800 yards last year, and has been over 4000 yards for 4 years straight with a QB rating averaging in the high 90's during that time. I think this year's version LVR's receivers are better than this year's version of GB's if you include the TEs, and it's not that close.
I also think if you are counting on a rookie WR to get more than 600 yards -- even across 17 games -- you are being very very optimistic, and APRH if you think any will outplay Davante Adams this year you are delusional. There is a modest dropoff from Rodgers to Carr, and Adams will compete with Waller, Renfrow, etc. for targets but he's the clear #1 and will get plenty of throws his way... certainly more than a rookie WR. Also consider the AFCW is going to have a lot of shootouts with the QBs in that division, whereas GB will probably run the ball a lot more since RB is more of a known strength for them with Jones/Dillon.

I think statistically we'll see Rodgers will be fine but won't be as gaudy as the last two years -- his overall yards and completion rate will likely drop and the TDs slightly. I think we'll see more close games like in MLF's first year (2019), less blowouts. I don't think the OP's 3900 yard number is that far off - Rodgers threw for 4002 in 2019.

Rookie WRs come into the league better prepared than before, but Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase are the exception and not the rule. They were very polished coming out and were part of a historic CFB offense. Watson and Doubs are nowhere close to that. MVS topped 60 yards four times in his rookie season and had 2 TDs, maybe Watson beats that but he also has to beat Lazard, Watkins, Cobb for snaps and targets. Not saying Watson won't be good, I just think a sanity check and realistic expectations are in order.