Official 2023 NFL Draft Thread

[jklowan]

I think it would be better if they traded down to 19 -20 and picked up another 2nd rounder to address that issue, but I love the draft and would not be unhappy with that haul and the extra 2nd fr a edge rusher

[Deputy Nutz]

When I try to pin point this draft or any draft for the matter with the view point from the Packers front office, I look at players currently on the roster or former players that were productive their offensive and defensive systems. I also compare the size and athletic attributes of former athletes drafted or on the roster. This is the best I could come up with

QB - Athletic players, that look to throw the ball down field and that have the ability to break down defenses. Ideal measurables are 6'2" or greater, 215 lbs. Love was the exception in terms of arm accuracy especially his senior year. Love was drafted more for his potential than his numbers in college.

RB - High RAS score. Measurable are all over the place. Probably their most flexible position in terms of size

OT - Interesting because I think in the Wide Zone scheme of LaFluer they value very high RAS scores in their offensive linemen. I don't think height factors in unless a player is shorter than 6'4". They have to be able to move and be able to reach defenders outside of them. The Packers will fill a need early in the draft if they have a hole. Currently the Packers have some big dudes on the roster listed at tackle with 7 dudes 6'5" or taller. Bak and Toms are the only ones that are 6'4".

IOL - Same for offensive tackles. RAS scores above almost anything else. Centers have to be the second smartest player on the field for the Packers and they put an added value on this, but will not reach on a guy just because he went to Princeton but has a Fred Flintstone build. Again they will look to early rounds to fill a hole but they will wait and try to find a diamond in the rough that they can polish. Measurable again will determine on RAS scores but they will rarely take a player under 6'3" and under 300 pounds.

WR - RAS and size is key. They use their receivers a lot in the run game to block and mess with the defensive personnel. Doubs is 6'2", and Watson is 6'4". Even though Amari Rodgers was 5'9" he was 215 pounds, I think the Packers thought they could turn him into a poor man's Debo Samuels. Watson doesn't seem to be much of a blocker but look for the Packers to covet big strong receivers with high RAS scores in the later rounds. In the 2023 draft look for the Packers to draft an early slot type receiver and then look to add depth in the form of an Allen Lazard type.

TE - They have held on to Mercedes Lewis for a long time because they require their inline TEs to block like a 6th offensive lineman. Size and RAS score are the key. IF a TE can't make hay downfield in the pass game they better be able to block. Packers require versatility in their TE position, so to be exact in their measurables might be a bit difficult, Deguara was drafted in the 3rd round and is 6'2" 238 pounds. I think they see him more as an H-Back type in their offense. I would say the Packers prototypical pick would be 6'5" 250 pounds.

DT - Athletic and 300 pounds. If you can't move they don't want you at this point. Things could change but they rarely draft a big run stuffer type like BJ Raji. Raji was a freak and its too bad his career ended early. They want guys that win with leverage and rarely go after DTs taller than 6'4". Long arms should be a value but I don't see them giving too many cares about this.

Edge/OLB - Happy to use super athletic defensive ends as their stand up edges and outside linebackers. minimum of 6'3" and 250 pounds. I think they would prefer guys that are 6'5" and 265 pounds and can run silly times in their underwear. They don't do a lot of dropping into coverage, Barry's defense doesn't seem very complicated for these guys.

LB - Again its seems redundant, but the Packers want optimal size and RAS scores, sure they want instincts but they don't want to overvalue instincts because I think it requires expert eyes while watching game tape and for some reason they would rather put more trust in the RAS score. Quay Walker is one of the least instinctive LBs I have seen in a while but it didn't matter to the Packers when drafting him over the likes of Nakobi Dean or Devin Lloyd. Quay made some bone headed decision but I don't think he is a bad guy and he was second in the NFL for tackles by a rookie. 6'3" 240 pounds would be their ideal. They will only play with two at the most.

Saf - If I sound like a broken record I apologize, but they prefer high RAS scores. I wish they would prefer high intellect and instincts at safety but not sure if they will go this route. The real truth is they don't seem to really value this position in the draft. The highest drafted safety was Savage under Gute in the first round but you really can't find another one drafted until basically the late rounds if at all. Outside of Savage the Packer's safety position is mostly all guys that are over 6'0" and 200 pounds.

CB - RAS SCORE!!! Alexander is obviously one of the best selections the Packers have made in the first round in quite a while. Alexander is 5'10" on a good day, so that would seem the minimum of the height standards in Green Bay, and Stokes was 6'0" so that is only a matter of inches. Stokes's RAS score was 9.38, and Alexander's was 9.54. so really their is your connection. Packers want athletic corners, that they also expect to be physical.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Good post, Nuts! I do have some thoughts on what GB looks for in players.

QB Solid mobility and accuracy. They have not drafted a QB under 6'2' 220 since TT took over. They have not drafted a QB with hands smaller than 9 1/4".

RB They draft mostly bigger RBs. Franklin was drafted in 2013 at 205 pounds. Jones was drafted in 2017 at 208 pounds. That's as small as they've gone. 40 doesn't seem that important, but they generally stay with RBs better than 7.33 in the 3 cone and better than 120" in the broad jump. Scheme fit would be RBs that are good in the zone scheme.

WR They mostly like bigger WRs. The only WRs under 6' that they've drafted are Jennings, Cobb, and Amari Rodgers. Jennings was almost 200 pounds. Rodgers was 212 pounds. Cobb is the big outlier at 5'10" 191 pounds. They seem to be particular about the 3 cone. They stay under 7.19.

TE 3 Cone and Broad seem to be important. Threshold seems to be about 7.23 on the 3 cone and 111" on the broad. I've read that 32" min vertical and 110" min broad indicate NFL success.

OT They like athletes. GB will draft smaller OTs (Bakh, Kyle Murphy, Van Lanen, and Tom were all on the smaller side). They haven't drafted an OT with sub 33" arm length, but they have moved guys inside that had smaller arms (Madison, Stepaniak, Rhyan). Bulaga, Murphy, and Tom were the shortest arms at 33 1/4" that stuck at OT. GB has generally stayed under 5.32 in the 40, 4.75 in the 3 cone, and 7.71 shuttle. I've read that 5.09 40, 4.65 3 cone, and 7.84 shuttle indicate NFL success.

IOL Again, athletes. They will draft smaller IOLs. Linsley, Colledge, Moll, Barbre were all 300 lbs or less. Runyan (306), Hanson (303), and Amichia (302) were also smaller. GB doesn't seem to have a 40 threshold, but they do seem to have a 4.68 shuttle and 7.93 3 cone threshold. I've read that 7.84 3 cone indicates NFL success.

DE They look for size, length, and athleticism. 6'3" with 32 1/2" arm length is the norm. T-Rex Dean Lowry was the outlier. 7.65 3 Cone seems to be the threshold. The last DE above 7.55 3 cone was C.J. Wilson back in 2010. Everbody since Wilson also were 4.46 or less in the shuttle.

DT Most have been 6'3" or taller and 310+ lbs. All have had at least 32" arms. All have had 102"+ broad. There doesn't seem to be a noticeable threshold in the other measurements. They've drafted a guy with 5.00 shuttle (Ford), 7.94 3 cone (Pennel), 26.5" vert (Boyd).

OLB Size. Clay Matthews is the outlier at 6"3 240, but that was back in 2009. Since then, their edges have generally been 6'3"+ 255+ pound. Vince Biegel was the outlier, but that didn't turn out well. They actually don't seem to care about 40 time much. Enagbare ran 4.87. Garvin ran 4.82. They generally draft big edges with a bit of explosiveness (speed to power). Ricky Elmore was an outlier, but the other guys have all jumped at least 117" in the broad since Elmore.

CB Size. They almost always draft CBs that are 5'11"+ and 192+ lbs. They haven't drafted a CB with arms shorter than 30 1/4" since TT took over. Jaire was an outlier, but he tested off the charts in the measurables. Shermar Jean-Charles was the HUGE outlier. He was short and unathletic. I wonder if he was drafted primarily for special teams. Otherwise, his selection made little sense. The rest have had a 7.10- in 3 cone (generally less than 7.00), 34" vert. I've read that 7.00 max 3 cone, 36" min vert, and 4.54 max 40 indicate NFL success.

S Darnell Savage was the smallest they've drafted since they went to a 3-4 at 5'11" 198 lbs. I think they generally like 4.22- for shuttle, 7.16- for 3 cone, 33"+ vert, and 118"+ broad. I've read that 4.59 max 40, 4.05 max shuttle, 7.10 max 3 cone, and 36" min vert indicate NFL success.

This was really getting into the weeds, but these are some thresholds that I look for to see if a player meets the Packers thresholds.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I forgot LBs. They used to have a 233 min lb threshold, but they went under that for McDuffie in 2021 at 227 lbs. They haven't drafted a LB over 4.71 in the 40 and 4.32 in the shuttle since D.J. Smith in 2011. You'd think there are some more thresholds, but Blake Martinez in 2016 was a huge outlier in most other measurables.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I was watching a PFF podcast this morning, and they had an interesting exercise. They each filled out a starting lineup from this year's draft class. I'd like to take it further. I'm going to do a 53 man roster from this year's draft class, and I'll do it with the Packers scheme in mind. That will rule out some players that I may have ranked higher than guys that make this team. Some examples are Zay Flowers (doesn't meet size threshold), O'Cyrus Torrence (doesn't meet athletic threshold, gap scheme fit), Calijah Kancey (doesn't meet size threshold), Nolan Smith (doesn't meet size threshold), Joey Porter (not a scheme fit, press man CB who isn't good in zone).

QB Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson
RB Bijan Robinson (all around RB), Jahmyr Gibbs (3rd down RB/KR), Roschon Johnson (pass pro), Devon Achane (KR)
WR Quentin Johnson (X), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Z or Y), Jonathan Mingo (Y), Jordan Addison (PR), Jalin Hyatt (deep threat), Cedric Tillman
TE Dalton Kincaid (Flex), Michael Mayer (Combo), Luke Musgrave (backup Flex), Darnell Washington (backup Y)
OL Paris Johnson (LT), Peter Skoronski (LG), John Michael Schmitz (C), Steve Avila (RG), Darnell Wright (RT), Cody Mauch (backup OG), Joe Tippmann (backup OC), Broderick Jones (backup LT), Matthew Bergeron (backup RT)
DL Jalen Carter, Mazi Smith, Bryan Bresee, Keeanu Benton, Zacch Pickens
OLB Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy, Lukas Van Ness, Isaiah Foskey
ILB Drew Sanders, Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson, Daiyan Henley
CB Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon (OCB/SCB), Deonte Banks, Julius Brents, Darius Rush
S Brian Branch (SCB), Sydney Brown (SS), Antonio Johnson (FS/SCB), Jordan Battle (backup FS), Jammie Robinson (backup SS)

Pick whomever for K, P, and LS.

Zach Charbonnet vs. Roschon Johnson was a tough one. I have Charbonnet ranked a little higher, but I want my third guy to be the best in pass pro.

Kind of a waste of time, but kind of fun.

[Fritz]

I was watching a PFF podcast this morning, and they had an interesting exercise. They each filled out a starting lineup from this year's draft class. I'd like to take it further. I'm going to do a 53 man roster from this year's draft class, and I'll do it with the Packers scheme in mind. That will rule out some players that I may have ranked higher than guys that make this team. Some examples are Zay Flowers (doesn't meet size threshold), O'Cyrus Torrence (doesn't meet athletic threshold, gap scheme fit), Calijah Kancey (doesn't meet size threshold), Nolan Smith (doesn't meet size threshold), Joey Porter (not a scheme fit, press man CB who isn't good in zone).

QB Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson
RB Bijan Robinson (all around RB), Jahmyr Gibbs (3rd down RB/KR), Roschon Johnson (pass pro), Devon Achane (KR)
WR Quentin Johnson (X), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Z or Y), Jonathan Mingo (Y), Jordan Addison (PR), Jalin Hyatt (deep threat), Cedric Tillman
TE Dalton Kincaid (Flex), Michael Mayer (Combo), Luke Musgrave (backup Flex), Darnell Washington (backup Y)
OL Paris Johnson (LT), Peter Skoronski (LG), John Michael Schmitz (C), Steve Avila (RG), Darnell Wright (RT), Cody Mauch (backup OG), Joe Tippmann (backup OC), Broderick Jones (backup LT), Matthew Bergeron (backup RT)
DL Jalen Carter, Mazi Smith, Bryan Bresee, Keeanu Benton, Zacch Pickens
OLB Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy, Lukas Van Ness, Isaiah Foskey
ILB Drew Sanders, Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson, Daiyan Henley
CB Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon (OCB/SCB), Deonte Banks, Julius Brents, Darius Rush
S Brian Branch (SCB), Sydney Brown (SS), Antonio Johnson (FS/SCB), Jordan Battle (backup FS), Jammie Robinson (backup SS)

Pick whomever for K, P, and LS.

Zach Charbonnet vs. Roschon Johnson was a tough one. I have Charbonnet ranked a little higher, but I want my third guy to be the best in pass pro.

Kind of a waste of time, but kind of fun.

This can be said about Packerrats, in general.

[RashanGary]

I think Peter skoronsky is gonna be our guy. Top 10 game tape with late first height and arm length dropping him to 15. This is Bakhs last year. Time to lock down that LT spot. And he could easily start at guard his first year too, if you want to get instant impact from that pick.

[Deputy Nutz]

I am not sure the Packers will find value with an offensive lineman in the first round. Second Round, when they have to.

[run pMc]

I think Skoronki would be a dynamite replacement for Runyan Jr., or maybe at LG if you bump out Jenkins to LT. Not sure he's a OT because of size/length, but he's a good technician.
if he becomes the next Zach Martin there's long-term value, but that's a big IF and I agree you really don't want to drop the #15 pick on an OG.

I think after about pick 12 it's kind of a crapshoot and value will be in the eye of the beholder (and the team's scheme fit). I think there's some value at OT at 15. I'm a fan of Darnell Wright and like him a little better than Broderick Jones, although I think Wright is a RT and Jones is a LT prospect.

The logical part of my brain tells me they're most likely going OL or EDGE, but that only means Gute finally takes a WR or that Keion White guy (yuck) at 15.

[Deputy Nutz]

Taking Keion White with the 15th pick would be a total Gute move.

[run pMc]

I'd consider White at 45. Maybe. I can think of 5 players who will probably be there at 45 off the top of my head I'd take before him (if I were Gute) though. Round 3 you can talk me into White, that's the crazy/bust round anyway.

I just think there are better prospects out there. Dude turned 24 in January and is still very raw. How much more upside are you really going to get before he's 30?
Makes a lot more sense to pick a prospect who is still raw if they are 21 or 22.

Will scream at the TV if he goes at 15 to GB.

[Joemailman]

Packers visiting with OT Kadeem Telfort. Big, talented guy with a checkered past. Packers probably want to get a sense of his attitude/commitment.

Overall, Telfort is a bit of a work in progress and there are some effort and character concerns that need to be vetted but there is no denying his physical talent and upside. He could develop into a lower-level starter at either left or right tackle in the right situation.

At his pro day, Telfort measured 6-7 and 322 pounds, with 36″ arms and a 86″ wingspan. He ran the 40-yard dash in 5.45 seconds, hit 24.5″ in the vertical leap, covered 8-0 in the broad jump, finished the short shuttle in 5.10 seconds and the three-cone in 8.70 seconds and completed 19 reps in the benchpress. His Relative Athletic Score is 1.59 out of 10.0.

[run pMc]

Most recent visits (not the full list, see previous page for earlier visits):
17. TE Ben Sims, Baylor
18. TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
19. OL Atonio Mafi, UCLA
20. CB Tyrique Stevenson, Miami
21. WR Cole Tucker, NIU
22. TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati
23. DB Jartavius ‘Quan’ Martin, Illinois
24. OLB Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State
25. WR Ryan Miller, Furman
26. WR Rashee Rice, SMU
27. OT Kadeem Telfort, UAB

[Arctic Fox]

Should we draft a back up QB or wait until someone releases a back up?

[Arctic Fox]

I Like Mayer, Mafi and Rashee Rice