Official Packers 2023 Free Agency Thread

[RashanGary]

Lazard would be worth 5. But someone will give him more.

[Bretsky]

Again with the trading shit, run pMc? I say again, Rodgers' contract is great BECAUSE it for all practical purposes, prevents a trade. He is strongly likely to be the Packers QB for the three years, which is a Good thing - make that a GREAT thing. Hopefully, he gets extended well beyond that.

I don't mean to pick on you, because others have been far more idiotic about the Rodgers situation.

Aaron got what Sharon wanted

He was the assistant GM for that contract. He strung Gutebag up from a telephone post by the balls, told him how to write the contract, and laughed all the way to signing

[Bretsky]

Unrestricted Free Agents (with 2022 cap hit in parentheses):

Allen Lazard (4 million)
Jonathan Abram (1 million)
Sammy Watkins (1.8 million)
Elgton Jenkins (4.7 million)
Dallin Leavitt (1.2 million)
Rudy Ford (1 million)
Eric Wilson (700K)
Keisean Nixon (965K)
Corey Ballentine (482K)
Justin Hollins (375K)

Free agents with void years added (with 2023 cap hit if cut):

Adrian Amos (8 million)
Dean Lowry (1.9 million)
Mason Crosby (1 million)
Marcedes Lewis (1 million)
Robert Tonyan (500K)
Jarran Reed (1.5 million)
Randall Cobb (1.4 million)

Restricted Free Agents (with 2022 cap hit in parentheses):

Yosuah Nijman (965K)
Krys Barnes (895K)
Tyler Davis (895K)
Jake Hanson (825K)

Of the Unrestricted guys, I'd like them to keep Elgin Jenkins and I do like Rudy Ford who won't break the bank. I'll take Nixon back for specials. The rest....whatever

Would like to see Amos return. Maybe Tonyan if it's cost effective. THe rest...whatever

[bobblehead]

You either suck at math, or you are clueless about the current NFL CBA.

Per the CBA, each team must spend at least 89% of the cap over a 4 year period, or any player on that team over that period of time gets free frogskins up to the 89% threshold. Moreover, all NFL teams as a whole must, on average, spend at least 95% of the cap over the 4 year period. Otherwise, free frogskins to the players.

Thus, there is no such shit as “the problem comes when 19 other teams DON'T do it and de facto have more room…” The current CBA forces the pig owners to spend frogskins on players or be penalized. “Dead money” is inevitable.

Again, dead money is money already spent. And the Cap is NOT constant. With soaring revenues, revenue sharing and a CBA that forces the pigs to spend, Jerry Jones with 40M in dead money ain’t at a disadvantage competitively against Mike Brown with only, say, 3M in dead money. Do the math.

So answer me this hotshot. If you spend SOOOO much over 4 years (because you be cookin) and then the next 4 years you fall short of the 89% because its dead money that was spent previously do you get penalized? If not then you're fact about the CBA is incorrect, but if so then you are limited in the amount of cooking you can do. Which is it?

[bobblehead]

First of all, wait to step up, APB - defeating the king of Facts with what? FACTS!

Yes, bobblehead, you can continue to carry dead money and kick it down the road so you are "even" currently almost indefinitely. Glad you agree. You shoulda stopped right there.

Is it 19 teams that don't do that? Where did you get that number? Yeah, if true, they might be more competitive in free agency. But how many of those teams have been better than the Packers over the past decade or two or three? How many have better personnel now? And how many do you realistically foresee being better than the Packers over the next decade or so?

Also, it seems like you're conflating dead money with void years. Void years is a strategy in "cooking the cap"/beating the system. Dead money happens when somebody you invest in turns out to be a bust or gets a long term injury or some other unforeseen badness. It would, for example, take something monumentally stupid like trading or cutting Rodgers to get a shit ton of dead money. The can kicking I referred to is mainly but not limited to void years or prorated bonuses. If things procede normally or as expected, that works out just fine. It would even without the massive cap increase over time, but with that, even more so.

I'll leave your math skills to our resident CPA to dispute. I'll just ask you, if you know the difference between static analysis and dynamic analysis? As your posts here and elsewhere say you have a bit of a problem with that.

You guys exhaust me. I give up. Their is no cap. Players totally owned management in the CBA by eliminating it. I just don't understand why Jerry Jones doesn't buy the best 5 players on the market every month since winning IS his main goal and the money isn't an issue to him.

You like to say things that make no sense, such as "how many of those teams have been better than the Packers over the past decade or two or three" as if that doesn't prove MY point. Until about 4 years ago TT was careful NOT to get in cap hell. Gutes has gotten us in cap hell in a matter of 4 seasons. We now have a losing record. Thank you for making my point.

[bobblehead]

With respect to the cap and FA, I'll be very interested to see what they do with Kenny Clark, Elgton Jenkins, David Bahktiari, Preston Smith, and Aaron Jones. I think they want to sign Jenkins to a long term contract and I think they need to do some maneuvering to make that happen. Exercising the 5th year option on Savage looks really bad right now; they could use that money elsewhere.

Devondre Campbell is probably safe for next season but I could see them cutting him or restructuring his contract eventually as well.

No run, none of that will happen. They can just cook it to balance and sign everyone and lose no one ever.

[bobblehead]

Lazard is on pace for about 800 yards and 7 TD's. Any reason he shouldn't have a market value at least as great as MVS? ( 3 years, 30 million). How much should Gute offer him?

10 years 5 billion since there is no cap.

[George Cumby]

10 years 5 billion since there is no cap.

Ah.........Texas Math.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

You guys exhaust me. I give up. Their is no cap. Players totally owned management in the CBA by eliminating it. I just don't understand why Jerry Jones doesn't buy the best 5 players on the market every month since winning IS his main goal and the money isn't an issue to him.

You like to say things that make no sense, such as "how many of those teams have been better than the Packers over the past decade or two or three" as if that doesn't prove MY point. Until about 4 years ago TT was careful NOT to get in cap hell. Gutes has gotten us in cap hell in a matter of 4 seasons. We now have a losing record. Thank you for making my point.

The team in a salary cap hell is able to make its QB1 the highest paid QB in the league; its CB1 the highest paid corner in the league; able to sign its top ILB and 3rd corner to competitive contracts; it offered to make its former #1 WR the highest paid rock catcher in the league; it has no problem paying a wanker Yokozuna $18M a year for 3 sacks and subpar productivity game after game after game- all with the “abnormality” stressing revenues.

We know you, Bobble, perceive yourself as the smartest man at Packerrats. But it’s ok to admit that there are billions of things in this world one does not understand. I, for example, do not understand the chemistry of intimate love. You, on the other hand, do not understand the dynamics of the NFL salary cap.

Btw: check out the current richest pigs on earth list. None of the NFL pigs made the top 10. Only the Walton heirs made the top 20. Point being? Jerry Jones doesn’t “buy the best 5 players on the market every month” b/c doing so would fuck with his bottom line. Profit is still the name of the game.

Btw 2: The Cap has nothing to do with the Packers sucking this season. It has everything to do with the German Shepherd’s incompetent personal decisions. Do you honestly believe this team would be 4-8 with DK Metcalf, AJ Brown and Jonathan Taylor instead of Savage, Fucking Center and Love?

[run pMc]

10 years 5 billion since there is no cap.

Ah.........Texas Math.

These are GOLD. LMAO

There is a cap despite what some assert. COVID screwed up GB's assumptions of the cap based on contracts they have.
Packers are, at a minimum, tettering on the edge of cap hell. They will have to make cuts or readjustments to make things fit.
Aaron Rodgers has a $59M option, he is the highest paid guy in the building and essentially Gute's boss and MLF's boss (if not their equals).
He has their cap and thus the team held hostage.

Maybe that's Murphy's fault, or Ball's fault. Either way, they have a lot of roster decisions and some of them will be based on their cap space/contract, not performance. Aaron Jones might be gone even though he's the engine of the offense because of his contract, for example. They've already put void years on almost every contract they have, they have played the best cards in their hand and going forward it could get ugly.

When you have the 2nd in the league in cap space devoted to the defense and they still are in the 20's by DVOA, combined with a QB taking up 25% of the cap and then Bahktiari and Jones' contracts, there's not a lot left for guys like Lazard or Jenkins. Unless they get bounceback years from Rodgers and the young players under contract next year they will need a transformational draft to stay relevant and there's a < 1% of that happening.

I'll still be cheering for them win or lose, but the music at this party is about to end. I expect the roster to look younger/different next year and there to be at least 5-6 new starters on Off & Def combined.

[bobblehead]

The team in a salary cap hell is able to make its QB1 the highest paid QB in the league; its CB1 the highest paid corner in the league; able to sign its top ILB and 3rd corner to competitive contracts; it offered to make its former #1 WR the highest paid rock catcher in the league; it has no problem paying a wanker Yokozuna $18M a year for 3 sacks and subpar productivity game after game after game- all with the “abnormality” stressing revenues.

We know you, Bobble, perceive yourself as the smartest man at Packerrats. But it’s ok to admit that there are billions of things in this world one does not understand. I, for example, do not understand the chemistry of intimate love. You, on the other hand, do not understand the dynamics of the NFL salary cap.

Btw: check out the current richest pigs on earth list. None of the NFL pigs made the top 10. Only the Walton heirs made the top 20. Point being? Jerry Jones doesn’t “buy the best 5 players on the market every month” b/c doing so would fuck with his bottom line. Profit is still the name of the game.

Btw 2: The Cap has nothing to do with the Packers sucking this season. It has everything to do with the German Shepherd’s incompetent personal decisions. Do you honestly believe this team would be 4-8 with DK Metcalf, AJ Brown and Jonathan Taylor instead of Savage, Fucking Center and Love?

What you describe here is the REASON we are not winning games and are now in cap hell. We lost a top 3 center, 2 versatile experienced OL, our deep threat WR, the best pass rushing OLB on the team, Jamaal Williams (who is playing pretty good ball in Detroit). These aren't guys on their last legs in the NFL we lost, they are guys who are productive and help a team win.

As to your point 2, Its easy to play what if. No, I don't think the packers would suck if they in fact picked the absolute best possible pro with each pick they had. Great point, you should be a GM.

[bobblehead]

These are GOLD. LMAO

There is a cap despite what some assert. COVID screwed up GB's assumptions of the cap based on contracts they have.
Packers are, at a minimum, tettering on the edge of cap hell. They will have to make cuts or readjustments to make things fit.
Aaron Rodgers has a $59M option, he is the highest paid guy in the building and essentially Gute's boss and MLF's boss (if not their equals).
He has their cap and thus the team held hostage.

Maybe that's Murphy's fault, or Ball's fault. Either way, they have a lot of roster decisions and some of them will be based on their cap space/contract, not performance. Aaron Jones might be gone even though he's the engine of the offense because of his contract, for example. They've already put void years on almost every contract they have, they have played the best cards in their hand and going forward it could get ugly.

When you have the 2nd in the league in cap space devoted to the defense and they still are in the 20's by DVOA, combined with a QB taking up 25% of the cap and then Bahktiari and Jones' contracts, there's not a lot left for guys like Lazard or Jenkins. Unless they get bounceback years from Rodgers and the young players under contract next year they will need a transformational draft to stay relevant and there's a < 1% of that happening.

I'll still be cheering for them win or lose, but the music at this party is about to end. I expect the roster to look younger/different next year and there to be at least 5-6 new starters on Off & Def combined.

The year after Gutes took over and spent all the cap space TT had been using on "our own" to sign Turner, Amos and the law firm of Smith & Smith I said "hey, all the people who begged TT for this got their way. Lets see how it works out". It wasn't all bad. We had a monster 3 year run. Now its time to pay the piper. Its simple math. We can't compete with younger teams that have managed the cap better for at least 2023. We need a reset now. Its one way to do it. I'm not a fan of it, but we had 3 legit chances at an Owl. If Love is good and we reset the cap we will maybe have more. I just hope Gutes manages the cash a little better going forward.

[SudsMcBucky]

What you describe here is the REASON we are not winning games and are now in cap hell. We lost a top 3 center, 2 versatile experienced OL, our deep threat WR, the best pass rushing OLB on the team, Jamaal Williams (who is playing pretty good ball in Detroit). These aren't guys on their last legs in the NFL we lost, they are guys who are productive and help a team win.

As to your point 2, Its easy to play what if. No, I don't think the packers would suck if they in fact picked the absolute best possible pro with each pick they had. Great point, you should be a GM.

I think we're finding out why no one is hiring APB to their accounting staff.

[texaspackerbacker]

You guys exhaust me. I give up. Their is no cap. Players totally owned management in the CBA by eliminating it. I just don't understand why Jerry Jones doesn't buy the best 5 players on the market every month since winning IS his main goal and the money isn't an issue to him.

You like to say things that make no sense, such as "how many of those teams have been better than the Packers over the past decade or two or three" as if that doesn't prove MY point. Until about 4 years ago TT was careful NOT to get in cap hell. Gutes has gotten us in cap hell in a matter of 4 seasons. We now have a losing record. Thank you for making my point.

Well, for one thing, Jerry Jones is like a modern day George Halas - not a whole lot of wealth outside of the team. That Denver guy and a couple of others would be more like what you're saying.

It's wrong, of course, to say "there is no cap". As APB and I both said, you can stretch it and manipulate it, but there's obviously a limit to that.

What I "said" was actually a question hahahaha, rhetorical I suppose because the answer is obvious, none or very very few better. You also got it right about Ted not pushing the cap to the limit - one reason I didn't like him. We were good in his time primarily because of Favre and then Rodgers. His handling of things - not maximizing the cap - arguably were why we didn't have more Super Bowls during those great winning seasons.

You say "Gutes has gotten us in cap hell"; No, that's just not true. The only way it is anything close to that is if Rodgers was cut or traded - either of which would be monumentally STUPID and are very very unlikely to happen.

Yeah, there's no getting around that we have a losing record. But there are a helluva lot of other reasons for that than the salary cap.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

What you describe here is the REASON we are not winning games and are now in cap hell. We lost a top 3 center, 2 versatile experienced OL, our deep threat WR, the best pass rushing OLB on the team, Jamaal Williams (who is playing pretty good ball in Detroit). These aren't guys on their last legs in the NFL we lost, they are guys who are productive and help a team win.

As to your point 2, Its easy to play what if. No, I don't think the packers would suck if they in fact picked the absolute best possible pro with each pick they had. Great point, you should be a GM.

The Packers coulda re-signed all the players you mentioned if they wanted to. The Ohio State center is a more than capable replacement for Lindsey. The German Shepherd correctly chose Aaron Jones over Williams. Ditto, P-Smith over Z-Smith. $10M/yr for a one trick pony in MVS ain’t a wise investment. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Harlan Fucking Huckleby! Arguing about the cap with you is as pointless as myself listening to the Coldplay smash hit, “Let Somebody Go” over and over again, which I do because Coldplay is awesome and Serena Gomez is hot. When Chris Martin and Serena sing, “When we called the mathematicians and we asked them to explain/They said love’s only equal to the pain,” I have no idea what they’re talking about because I do not understand the chemistry of imitate love.

You, obviously, do not understand the dynamics of the salary cap. No team in a cap hell would be able to afford A-Rod AND J-Alex AND still have frogskins left over to waste on Cletidus Clark.

The Packers suck due mainly to the German Shepherd’s failure to find a capable replacement for Adams.