What is the Main Reason GB has not won a Super Bowl in the past 12 years ?

[King Friday]

I agree entirely on the second contract really determining if a drafted player was impactful and a great draft pick…at least for most positions. RB is a tough call, as few players at that position will be worthy of a second contract. To me, a guy like Dillon can be a great pick even if he is only around for 4 years.

If you say that a team needs 2 great/impactful picks a year, Gute’s drafts have been lacking. I’ll give him a slight pass in that he’s been picking very late most of the time, which certainly adds to the degree of difficulty. I’ll say that Jaire, Jenkins, Gary and Dillon were all great picks. Jury is still out on Runyan, Stokes and Love. To me, Love is going to have to become a Pro Bowl caliber starter to justify his selection given what it has now cost the Packers in cap space issues and opportunity cost in immediately improving a title contender. I don’t see Myers or Savage as being great picks. They are both reasonable contributors, but those are picks that any GM can fall into by just throwing darts at a board.

2021 was a poor draft, and that more than anything else is what caused the team to regress when some FAs flew the coop.

[call_me_ishmael]

I just stumbled across this on Reddit. Somebody else did a data analysis on Gooter that concluded he is the worst drafter. I wouldn’t go that far as when he hits, he gets a home run.

https://www.reddit.com/r/GreenBayPackers/comments/1155ewn/analyzing_brian_gutekunsts_performance_compared/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

[ThunderDan]

I just stumbled across this on Reddit. Somebody else did a data analysis on Gooter that concluded he is the worst drafter. I wouldn’t go that far as when he hits, he gets a home run.

https://www.reddit.com/r/GreenBayPac...tm_name=iossmf

From the article you quoted.

TLDR

Who knows if this means anything. It's all pretty contingent on how much stock you have in this wAV metric from PFR. But at least based on this data and methodology, Gutey has performed worst than most other Packers GMs and is tied for worst among GMs in the NFL with a similar tenure.

[sharpe1027]

The GM doesn't control the coaches. Gute doesn't have total control over the football operations that Thompson and Wolf did. He can't fire MLF. And all indications are MLF hires his assistants.

I didn't realize this. Thanks!

[bobblehead]

I just stumbled across this on Reddit. Somebody else did a data analysis on Gooter that concluded he is the worst drafter. I wouldn’t go that far as when he hits, he gets a home run.

https://www.reddit.com/r/GreenBayPac...tm_name=iossmf

I could spin this 10 ways. I could also simply say its a miracle they won more games than all those other GMs.

[call_me_ishmael]

I could spin this 10 ways. I could also simply say its a miracle they won more games than all those other GMs.

Aaron Rodgers.

[bobblehead]

Now you're starting to sound like Tex. When we win, its all Aaron Rodgers, when we lose its because no one got Rodgers enough help.

[Bretsky]

Now you're starting to sound like Tex. When we win, its all Aaron Rodgers, when we lose its because no one got Rodgers enough help.

I admit I give Rodges a ton of Credit for putting the team on his back with the MVP seasons and that blew our record up

and

I give him a ton of blame for his shit play when we needed him most on several, several playofff losses.

I don't think it's that off to say Rodgers took at 9=10 win team to 13 wins. Add in often our division is complete shit and maybe our "regular season" record was way better than our overall talent

[call_me_ishmael]

Now you're starting to sound like Tex. When we win, its all Aaron Rodgers, when we lose its because no one got Rodgers enough help.

Aaron and Devante then. They stunk this year because the top heavy team lost a top heavy player and another fell off among several other reasons off course. But those are the big ones.

[bobblehead]

I admit I give Rodges a ton of Credit for putting the team on his back with the MVP seasons and that blew our record up

and

I give him a ton of blame for his shit play when we needed him most on several, several playofff losses.

I don't think it's that off to say Rodgers took at 9=10 win team to 13 wins. Add in often our division is complete shit and maybe our "regular season" record was way better than our overall talent

A 9-10 win team is a far stretch from "worst drafting GM in the league"

[texaspackerbacker]

As so often happens, you're both pretty much correct/the truth is somewhere between the extremes. Hell yeah, Aaron Rodgers, the GOAT, indeed is primarily responsible for the greatness generally over the past decade and a half, just as Favre was primarily responsible for the greatness the decade and a half before that. And Gutekunst indeed is far from the worst drafting GM. I'd even put him pretty far up into the upper half. LUCK, however, has a lot to do with that. Hardly any Super Bowl wins in that thirty year period? A big whatever about that. LUCK had a lot to do with that too.

[sharpe1027]

Crap teams have more opportunities for mediocre draft picks to play. Teams with a decent existing base of talent will have a higher bar for immediate contributions from draft picks. This skews analysis based on early player production towards shitty teams.

[call_me_ishmael]

A 9-10 win team is a far stretch from "worst drafting GM in the league"

Not my words, to be clear, but I think you are ignoring that analysis and not doing basic finger counting. The second contract guys aren’t there. The girls never came, the girls never came.

[bobblehead]

As I said, I'm not going all in on gutes. Just don't get the hate. Bottom line 2023 will likely tell the story

[call_me_ishmael]

As I said, I'm not going all in on gutes. Just don't get the hate. Bottom line 2023 will likely tell the story

I mean you’re totally right that if Love is a stud he will get extended and remain in GB for quite a while. But if he’s a bust or not great I think there is a very good chance the next owner wants to bring in their own guy. Thus my grand theory of then keeping ARod through Murphg’s last two years.