PREDICT JORDAN LOVE'S NEXT CONTRACT

[bobblehead]

Kicks dirt.

I was wrong about Russell Wilson. The Broncos' cap hit came from his signing bonus and 2024 salary (offset by the veteran minimum that the Steelers will pay him). I thought Rodgers' final Packers contract always had him one season further guaranteed, but that might have just been the tine between the Super Bowl and the upcoming season.

NFL contracts can be fully guaranteed; it's just that no team wants to be the one to fart in church and do it. I remember reading like 10 years ago, there were three distinctions for salary guarantees (or releasing): skill, injury, and cap. If someone can get all three, that season is considered "fully guaranteed."

Currently, Kirk Cousins has had two multi-year fully guaranteed contracts (Minnesota and Atlanta), because he was a free agent with multiple suitors and was considered safe enough to last for a few years. Deshaun Watson is also fully guaranteed for 5y/$230M because both he and the Texans had leverage and the Browns are a thirsty clown factory of sadness.

That about sums up the Watson situation. He may have killed guaranteed contracts for 100 years. To be honest, Cousins is really smart dude without certain ego restrictions. The deals he signed were similar to most deals which can't realistically be gotten away from for 3 years. He got the same deal without the year 4 drama of when will I be cut. If you sign a guy for 4 years that can't really be escaped for 3 of them and almost certainly won't see year 4 is it really different than Cousins 3 year fully guaranteed?

[smuggler]

I almost have to think the Browns got shoehorned into making that deal by the league. Watson was a good player, but not some sort of generational marvel. How many hands does a man have to sexually assault before it outweighs that kind of talent?

[Joemailman]

I almost have to think the Browns got shoehorned into making that deal by the league. Watson was a good player, but not some sort of generational marvel. How many hands does a man have to sexually assault before it outweighs that kind of talent?

I don't think the NFL was happy at all with Watson getting that deal. They would have preferred Watson just quietly go away. This was just another bad NFL team with a meddling owner making a bad decision. The same owner who made Mike Pettine insert Johnny Manziel into the starting lineup as a rookie.

[NewsBruin]

That about sums up the Watson situation. He may have killed guaranteed contracts for 100 years. To be honest, Cousins is really smart dude without certain ego restrictions. The deals he signed were similar to most deals which can't realistically be gotten away from for 3 years. He got the same deal without the year 4 drama of when will I be cut. If you sign a guy for 4 years that can't really be escaped for 3 of them and almost certainly won't see year 4 is it really different than Cousins 3 year fully guaranteed?

It's pretty much the same for the player, but the extra years help reduce the team's annual signing -bonus cap charge. If the team and the agents let the player know what's up, he can keep himself in the 3-years-guaranteed mindset.

If the surface-level reporters, reaction pundits, bloggers, podcasters, and message boards go through the "Will he be cut?" dance, leave that to be their problem.

EDIT: If the agent's cut is off the total contract value, I'm sure they're thrilled for the extra years.

[smuggler]

I don't think the NFL was happy at all with Watson getting that deal. They would have preferred Watson just quietly go away. This was just another bad NFL team with a meddling owner making a bad decision. The same owner who made Mike Pettine insert Johnny Manziel into the starting lineup as a rookie.

They also weren't happy with him sitting with his thumb up his ass getting paid, which is a terrible precedent for the league to allow for players. It worked out for the Texans - good for them.

[Joemailman]

Ari Meirov
@MySportsUpdate
Tua Tagovailoa gets $53.1M per year on average and a whopping $167M guaranteed. Huge money and a long-term commitment from Miami.

5 years, 275 million, 175 million guaranteed sounds about right for Love.

[King Friday]

He doesn’t want a five year deal, or this would be done already.

[Joemailman]

He doesn’t want a five year deal, or this would be done already.

Actually, I posted this a couple of months ago:

An extension will be signed before preseason games start. 4 years, 230 million.

[bobblehead]

All that being said, by the end of June he will be the highest paid QB in the game with a deal that tops Burrow. Not the way I would play it, but its what will happen. I have a good track record with this stuff. I said "we won't trade Rodgers" the year we didn't. Then I said "he gone" before we did. I even predicted the cutting of Ryan Grant when everyone thought I was bonkers.

This kind of thing is easier to predict than actually predicting a player will pan out or not. I am all in that Morgan will be a stalwart OL for a decade, but I could be wrong on that. This....no, Love is getting his and he is getting it soon.

I stand corrected. It was only equal to Burrow.

[Fritz]

Next contract will by half again this one and twice as long. People will be babbling about him being a Packer for life. And then . . . well, we know what comes after that.

[SudsMcBucky]

Next contract will by half again this one and twice as long. People will be babbling about him being a Packer for life. And then . . . well, we know what comes after that.

Yep, traded to the Jets.

[MadtownPacker]

I’m starting to worry AaaRon has burned that bridge.

[MadScientist]

I’m starting to worry AaaRon has burned that bridge.

You'd think even the Jets would learn eventually.

[Fritz]

You'd think even the Jets would learn eventually.

You'd think . . . but that's why they're the Jets!

[sharpe1027]

You'd think . . . but that's why they're the Jets!

It's spelled "Jests".