F/A JENKINS UPDATE

[Bretsky]

Is Jenkins really in a position to demand that much money annually yet ?

Put a First Round Tender on him.

Then offer him a fair deal now or sign him for the year and see how he develops.

[MJZiggy]

Wasn't the deadline for that yesterday? Or was that just franchise tags and stuff like that?

[PackerPro42]

When a player is a RFA there is a maximum to how much you can offer him, with that maximum comes a specific tender. When a team is interested in the player, they can offer him whatever they want plus the tender the team has set. After you find a team that is willing to place the tender on him and give him a generally large contract, the Packers can either chose to match the offer or take the tender in exchange for him.

So when you guys are saying that Jenkins is demanding so much money, it's incorrect because he doesn't have a say so into the amount of money he gets until another team offers him a contract.

[wist43]

KGB is a good case in point...

He got OVER-paid, b/c Sherman was too cautious and underestimated his value on the restricted market, and tagged him too low. Those of us arguing to lock him up now, in effect, are arguing that we DO NOT overpay him.

Jenkins doesn't have much leverage right now... even if they tender him at the 1st round rate, he'd still only be getting a 1 year deal - the logic goes that these guys haven't been paid big yet, they don't have lifetime security, a blown out knee later... these guys will take a discounted contracted against their potential payday on the open market a year down the line.

It would seem that those of you arguing against signing him simply don't see his value... trust me, if he hits the RFA market for anything less than the 1st round tender - he will be signed by another team to an offer sheet. He may even receive an offer if they tender him at the 1st round rate.

Jenkins was mishandled and misused under Sherman, but his potential was there for anyone to see... he's the quickest DL the Packers have, he's quick, has good speed - he's got a lot of value, and teams will pay for him.

[red]

Wow. All I can say is "wow"!

12 months ago half the people here thought it was crazy if Kampman was offered more than $2 million/year. Now they want to give Jenkins 4- 5 million.

Jenkins has shown FLASHES, not consistency at all. He was considered a liability at DT in the run game, which is why he never got more playing time than he did. Yes, he looked like he was better then KGB those last four games at DE, BUT it was only four games. His career stats look like Kampman's for 2005 alone, the year before he signed.

Kampman showed much, much more in potential and actual production in his first three years than Jenkins has, yet Kampman was tendered for his 4th year and was still signed longterm for his 5th. GB should do the same thing with Jenkins.

Jenkin's value is what it was December 1. Four games didn't make it go up by a factor of three.

What the tender cost is doesn't really matter for 2007. GB can afford it. What they can't afford is having him be in 2009 what KGB is now.

finally, backup. others that don't think he's been an all pro his whole career

where they hell were you yesterday morning?

i don't ever see him being an elite DE, demanding big money. i see him as possibly being a solid starter, not much more

IMO, he wants solid starter money right now, and i don't think we've seen enough to know if he is there yet.

give him the tender like i've been saying, and let him play this year. if he does well for maybe the first 6 or 8 games, then give him that solid starter money he wanted. i don't think he's going to set the world on fire, so his value shouldn't go up that much, if any

and to whoever said, who cares we can afford it. if we make a bunch of careless moves like i think this would be right now, and some of these players turn out to not be worth the money and we have to cut them, you'd see our cap situation go down the drain really fast

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

KGB is a good case in point...

He got OVER-paid, b/c Sherman was too cautious and underestimated his value on the restricted market, and tagged him too low. Those of us arguing to lock him up now, in effect, are arguing that we DO NOT overpay him.

Jenkins doesn't have much leverage right now... even if they tender him at the 1st round rate, he'd still only be getting a 1 year deal - the logic goes that these guys haven't been paid big yet, they don't have lifetime security, a blown out knee later... these guys will take a discounted contracted against their potential payday on the open market a year down the line.

It would seem that those of you arguing against signing him simply don't see his value... trust me, if he hits the RFA market for anything less than the 1st round tender - he will be signed by another team to an offer sheet. He may even receive an offer if they tender him at the 1st round rate.

Jenkins was mishandled and misused under Sherman, but his potential was there for anyone to see... he's the quickest DL the Packers have, he's quick, has good speed - he's got a lot of value, and teams will pay for him.

Well if thats true, then I say let a team have him for a first. The frist round is deep this year and you could get an awesome player with that pick.

[wist43]

If Jenkins had been a 1st round pick last year, and he had put up the numbers he did, and showed the upside that he did, all of you would be singing his praises and what a great pick he was.

At some point you have to put a name to the value of a draft pick...

[Lurker64]

I'm not sure if this case is analogous to the KGB one. All indications are that Thompson is a much better evaluator of football playing talent than Sherman is. Since TT has seen a hell of a lot more of Jenkins than I have, he's probably a much better judge of how much he's worth. Sherman showed that he was more than willing to throw a pile of money at a player whose playing ability (as opposed to measurables) is questionable. Thompson has not.

If TT has seen enough of Jenkins in liminal football stuff to determine that his performance in the last four games is an honest indication of his potential, then he probably deserves a bit more money than most of us are willing to throw at him (since we're fans.) If he hasn't, then Jenkins probably won't get as much (from us) as he wants or alternatively, we'll get some draft picks.

But as to how much he should get paid? I have no idea, I don't know the guy, I've only seen him on the football field. I don't yet have a good sense about whether that player is who he is all the time, or if he was just playing with his head on fire for a stretch last year.

*edit: you saw nothing*

[Scott Campbell]

I saw nothing.

[Packnut]

Info

Well, now we know he wants a shorter term contract so he can hit the market 1 more time. As hard as I try to understand the pay him side, I still believe it would be a terrible move to pay a guy on what ifs and may-be. 4 games does not a career make.

The over-riding factor is that the system in place regarding RFA's is there to protect the team. The Packers would be foolish not to use the system cause the players sure the hell do when it's to there advantage.

1 more important point to consider which I believe makes this a no-brainer. Right now, neither side has a clue as to what would be a fair contract. His own agent says it's hard to figure out starter money with nothing in the past to base it on. So let's say the Packers pay him a middle of the road deal now and he picks right up where he left off. We all know how these guys are. He's gonna want to re-negotiate after the 2007 season. Why risk going through that?

The problem is NO ONE has a clue as to what his real worth is. Only way to find out is to let the guy PROVE himself. Then give him a fair deal that Jenkins will be happy with. Hey, if the guy gets 15 sacks and holds up against the run for a full season, I have no problem giving him Kampman money.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Lock him up for 5-6 years, so the kid you have confidence in him, watch him succeed.

How did that work with KGB? He showed much more value than Jenkins when he signed his contract.

How much would you have been willing to pay Jenkins on December 9, 2006?

I knew I shouldn't have typed that last sentence as I figured people would rather focus on that and ignore the rest of the post.

We're not talking about what he would have made on 12/9/06 and I'm not getting involved in a hypothetical argument like that.

Also, it is assumed that he will get an 11M signing bonus, that is the MAX from an opinion in the article. Since that is what the naysayers are going with, I will only go with the 8M bonus on a 6 year deal as that was also the number given in the article, that is an extremely manageable cap figure, especially given the Packers very flush cap situation. 8M is a very good bargain for a player with Jenkins' upside.

If one is willing to put the 1st round tender on him and guarantee him 1.85M in salary, one must think he is very valuable and is going to start. If that is the case, why would one not pay him a relatively reasonable salary for a starting DE with a multi-year deal?

[Packnut]

Deal

Lock him up for 5-6 years, so the kid you have confidence in him, watch him succeed.

How did that work with KGB? He showed much more value than Jenkins when he signed his contract.

How much would you have been willing to pay Jenkins on December 9, 2006?

I knew I shouldn't have typed that last sentence as I figured people would rather focus on that and ignore the rest of the post.

We're not talking about what he would have made on 12/9/06 and I'm not getting involved in a hypothetical argument like that.

Also, it is assumed that he will get an 11M signing bonus, that is the MAX from an opinion in the article. Since that is what the naysayers are going with, I will only go with the 8M bonus on a 6 year deal as that was also the number given in the article, that is an extremely manageable cap figure, especially given the Packers very flush cap situation. 8M is a very good bargain for a player with Jenkins' upside.

If one is willing to put the 1st round tender on him and guarantee him 1.85M in salary, one must think he is very valuable and is going to start. If that is the case, why would one not pay him a relatively reasonable salary for a starting DE with a multi-year deal?

His agent wants a 3 or 4 year deal which would cut that signing bonus down.

[red]

a 3 year deal with a 5 or 6 million dollar SB i have no problem with

i think that would be resonable

[woodbuck27]

Re: Cash

What makes this choice difficult is we all still feel the sting of the KGB debacle. How can you put fair value on a guy that only had 4 solid games? I think the safest way is to make him prove how good he is this season BEFORE handing him a lot of cash. I'd rather pay more for a sure thing then a lot for may-be's and could be's.

He is developing with upside. If we can get him wrapped now, why give him a season to reach his best market potential and possibly lose him to a very high bid ? There's too many questions and developmentle time with the first and second round compensatory pick.

I say sign him ASAP.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Everybody points to KGB's signing. Well, he was pretty solid for a number of years. His production went down when they started playing him 80% of the snaps. $5M/year for a good pass rusher isn't ridiculous. I'd venture to guess that if they cut him right now, KGB could get close to what he's getting paid.

To me Jenkins, like Kampman, would be a safe signing. He's not the type to rest on his laurels. He was undrafted, and he's always carried that chip on his shoulder. He works hard, he's young yet, he has plenty of improving to do yet. If he's asking for $8M/year (which I highly doubt), then first or second round tender him, and see how he does. He could become a lot more expensive after this upcoming season though. If he demands are reasonable, then sign him long-term. I see guys like Robert Geathers and E.J. Henderson got $5M/year with $10M signing bonus, and he seems about in that range.

BTW, Jenkins may have done it against bad teams, but he played RE, so he went up against solid LTs in those games. McKinnie, Backus, Tait, and Jennings may not be elite, but it wasn't like he was going up against stiffs, rookies, or backups.