Green was OK at best last year

[Partial]

only 1.1% of his runs went for 20 yards or more where as 4.1% of Morency's runs went for 20 or more yards.

I am defining a big run as 20 yards or more.

Jamal Lewis - 3.6 YPC, .96% big runs
Willis McGahee - 3.8 YPC, 1.54% big runs
Rudi Johnson - 3.8 YPC, 1.47% big runs
Reuben Droughns - 3.4 YPC, .45% big runs
Tatum Bell - 4.4 YPC, 3.00% big runs
Ron Dayne - 4.1 YPC, 0.00% big runs
Wali Lundy - 3.8 YPC, 3.22% big runs
Joseph Addai - 4.8 YPC, 1.13% big runs
Maurice Jones-Drew - 5.7 YPC, 4.21% big runs
Fred Taylor - 5.0 YPC, 2.60% big runs
Larry Johnson - 4.7 YPC, 4.16% big runs
Ronnie Brown - 4.2 YPC, 2.49% big runs
Corey Dillion - 4.1 YPC, 1.50% big runs
Leon Washington - 4.3 YPC, 1.32% big runs
LaMont Jordan - 3.8 YPC, 1.75% big runs
Willie Parker - 4.4 YPC, 3.56% big runs
LaDainian Tomlinson - 5.2 YPC, 3.45% big runs
Travis Henry - 4.5 YPC, 3.33% big runs
Edgerrin James - 3.4 YPC, 0.00% big runs
Warrick Dunn - 4.0 YPC, 2.44% big runs
DeShaun Foster - 4.0 YPC, 1.32% big runs
DeAngelo Williams - 4.1 YPC, 4.13% big runs
Thomas Jones - 4.1 YPC, 1.35% big runs
Julius Jones - 4.1 YPC, 1.87% big runs
Marion Barber - 4.6 YPC, 2.96% big runs
Kevin Jones - 3.8 YPC, 2.76% big runs
Chester Taylor - 4.0 YPC, 1.98% big runs
Deuce McCallister - 4.3 YPC, 2.46% big runs
Tiki Barber - 5.1 YPC, 3.36% big runs
Brian Westbrook - 5.1 YPC, 3.00% big runs
Frank Gore - 5.4 YPC, 4.81% big runs
Shaun Alexander - 3.6 YPC, .79% big runs
Steven Jackson - 4.4 YPC, 2.61% big runs
Carnell Williams - 3.5 YPC, 1.78% big runs
Clinton Portis - 4.1 YPC, 2.36% big runs
Ladell Betts - 4.7 YPC, 2.45% big runs


Ahman Green Averages
2003 - 5.3 YPC, 4.22% big runs, 117.69 YPG
2004 - 4.5 YPC, 2.31% big runs, 77.53 YPG
2005 - 3.3 YPC, 0.00% big runs, 51.00 YPG
2006 - 4.0 YPC, 1.10% big runs, 75.64 YPG

Ahman Green has played in 34 of 48 possible games over the past three years, routinely sitting out for the 4th quarter and on MOST critical third down plays.

David Martin has played in 32 of 48 possible games over the past three years.



------------------------

Analysis:
When you look at Greens trend line, even ignoring the many games he has missed, it is very evident he is a declining back who is likely to be average at best next year.

For a team ran by the public, I am glad TT did not waste money paying up to 8 million this year for a back that can be replaced with similiar effectiveness for 1 million.

Also, when you look at other starting caliber running backs around the league, it is evident that he is not premiere, and certainly in the lower half statistically. He has a relatively decent YPC average at 4.0 YPC, but he is near the bottom of the league in big plays. If he is not making big plays, he is certainly not worth big money.

While one could argue it was poor offensive line play that made Green's averages so poor, I disagree. While they young line certainly did not help, the fact is he has lost too much speed over the years and a surgerically repaired quadricep later and doesn't have excellent vision to excel in a zone blocking system. He will do fairly well for a year down in Texas, probably comparable to what he did this year, but after that he will be overpaid big time.

By the time the packers are ready to compete and have restocked their cupboards so to speak, Green will be 32-33 years old and at the end of the line. Right now he smells of stopgap solution to me.

Clearly, the Packers need to do something to address the running back situation as I don't feel Morency is an every down back. If I were the coach, i'd take a long and hard look at Travis Henry. I'd bring him in for a year as a stop-gap, and split the carries between him and Morency. Vernand seems to have some shake to him and could do quite well in a 15 touch per game role.

Then, come the 2008 NFL draft ( supposed to be the deepest ever for running bakcs ), I'd look into finding a franchise back. I don't believe that Marshawn Lynch (whom will likely be available this year) is the answer and is a player they should stay away from. He looks great in the highlight reel, but if you have actually seen two or three cal games you would understand what I am talking about. He just doesn't have "it", plus his intangibles are awful.

-----------------------------------------

What are you thoughts?

[Noodle]

Well, there are lies, damn lies, and, with apologies to Patler, statistics. As much as I appreciate the insight that stats can bring, you would have to be out of your friggin mind to rate Green a declining back based on stats alone.

Our OL has been a trainwreck the last two years as far a run blocking. At the end of last year, they started to get it together, but prior to that the RBs were usually having coffee talk with 2 or 3 DL before they even hit the LOS. I saw Green make positive yardage out of absolute crap more times than I can count last year. Doesn't show up in the stats, but I know what I saw.

I'd agree that Green didn't hit the backside as much as he could have last year, but that's in some ways just the way he plays. He dosen't commonly hit a cut back until after he breaks the LOS. Green thinks like this -- first get 3, then look for the home run. Other backs think differently, but I prefer the guy who's going to keep the chains moving and who won't put me in bad down/distance situations.

You also have to factor in that Green was coming back from what has been for many players a career ending injury. My sense is that Green will be a more explosive and fit RB next year, when he has a year of solid training under his belt instead of rehab.

I for one am very sad to see him go. He was a great Packer who brought a toughness to the team that it has often lacked in recent years. Of course, that doesn't show up in stats either.

[Partial]

I will agree early in the season he made 1 yard gains into 3-4 yard gains with his power, but how much longer can he keep doing that?

The fact of the matter is this: Green couldn't stay on the field in recent history. Not only is he a MASSIVE injury liability, but he also is a two down back if that. He'll have a good run, take a player off, repeat.

Morency gave more big plays on less runs.

While I like Green, it is evident he is declining and a liability. He isn't earning his paycheck sitting on the sideline, now is he?

I predict he has averages about 55 yards per game he plays in this year if he starts. Which is average production, but I certainly would not pay the big bucks for that when by the time the team is ready to compete green won't be around anymore.

[Partial]

i. Nothing personal, Joe Horn. But as nice as it'd be to pay for sentimentality, teams that do that in a cap era are asking for trouble. If you're paying for a player today, you've got to pay for one thing -- performance. And Horn was just too beat up the last couple of years for the Saints to go out on a financial limb for him.

4. I know the Texans desperately wanted to make a splash in free agency, but Ahman Green? Paying Ahman Green $8 million in 2007? At age 30? Having missed 13 games due to injury the last two years? Having averaged 3.8 yards per carry over the last two years? I'm not saying he can't have a 1,300-yard year in 2007. I'm saying the odds are against it, and Dominic Rhodes or T.J. Duckett, to me, would have been better, and cheaper, options.

[Patler]

Well, there are lies, damn lies, and, with apologies to Patler, statistics.

[wist43]

Forget the stats... look at the tapes. Green played extremely well last year - this definitely hurts the Packers.

If Favre had not returned, I probably wouldn't care much one way or the other...

But Favre did return; the defense (passive scheme notwithstanding) is significantly improved; and the hope is that the young guys on the line will improve enough to at least provide an average line.

Now, with all of those positives working for them, TT throws a monkey wrench in the works and leaves himself bankrupt at a critical position - and over what??? a couple of million bucks, when he's flush with cash???

After Favre retires, they're done... and even though the chances of them going very far this year weren't real good either - at least they have Favre, and Favre gives them "a punchers chance".

This definitely sets them back... the only vet back that might come available that could come close to Green would be Lamont Jordan, but as of now, he's still property of the Raiders.

[Partial]

Forget the stats... look at the tapes. Green played extremely well last year - this definitely hurts the Packers.

If Favre had not returned, I probably wouldn't care much one way or the other...

But Favre did return; the defense (passive scheme notwithstanding) is significantly improved; and the hope is that the young guys on the line will improve enough to at least provide an average line.

Now, with all of those positives working for them, TT throws a monkey wrench in the works and leaves himself bankrupt at a critical position - and over what??? a couple of million bucks, when he's flush with cash???

After Favre retires, they're done... and even though the chances of them going very far this year weren't real good either - at least they have Favre, and Favre gives them "a punchers chance".

This definitely sets them back... the only vet back that might come available that could come close to Green would be Lamont Jordan, but as of now, he's still property of the Raiders.

Travis Henry has a shitty line and managed to outperform Green.

Green performed fine when he was on the field. Problem is he cannot be counted on to be on the field for 8 million dollars.

Also, how do you attribute the lack of big plays to the line when his back-up ran behind the same line and had a higher percentage of big plays? You say you work as a chemist, so how can you, a man of science, ignore such emperical evidence?

[CaptainKickass]

I heard that GB is "high" on Arliss Beach.

Weren't they also "high" on that Walt Williams?

I never heard of him until he had to play in place of Green/Davenport a couple seasons ago.

Whatever happened to that guy?

[pittstang5]

I'm sad to see Ahman go. I'm not going to question TT's judgement over this. In fact I'm surprised the Texans offered so much - especailly the first year of 8 mil, which has to be the big selling point as to why Green accepted.

Am I upset, yes. Will I survive...yes. Time heals all.

Partial - Those stats don't show the veteran leadership that Ahman brings to this team, which is the biggest reason I wanted him back. Please don't take this personally, I'm not going to argue against statistics or am I trying to burn you, but IMO, money aside and the current state of the Packers, they are a better team with Green, then without him.

[Partial]

I'm sad to see Ahman go. I'm not going to question TT's judgement over this. In fact I'm surprised the Texans offered so much - especailly the first year of 8 mil, which has to be the big selling point as to why Green accepted.

Am I upset, yes. Will I survive...yes. Time heals all.

Partial - Those stats don't show the veteran leadership that Ahman brings to this team, which is the biggest reason I wanted him back. Please don't take this personally, I'm not going to argue against statistics or am I trying to burn you, but IMO, money aside and the current state of the Packers, they are a better team with Green, then without him.

Probably a little bit better. Not for 8 mil, though.

[prsnfoto]

seems to me that those stats also show the guys that are the youngest with the freshest legs get the most big runs which leads me to think with Morency it may be a mistake to take a high profile young cahnge of pace guy in the draft. We need a powerful steady bruiser that gets 2-5 yards every carry there are several of those guys out there for cheap. And what the hell Wist I am one of the few who share your hate for Barnett and your view he is average but you want to give 6 million a year to an aging average back?

[Freak Out]

I guess now we'll get a good look at Morency.....but he will never be an Ahman Green class of RB. I'll withhold judgment on TT to see what he has up his sleeve regarding the RB situation…..but if he leaves the team without a running game after Favre decided to come back the fucker should be shot.

[Partial]

seems to me that those stats also show the guys that are the youngest with the freshest legs get the most big runs which leads me to think with Morency it may be a mistake to take a high profile young cahnge of pace guy in the draft. We need a powerful steady bruiser that gets 2-5 yards every carry there are several of those guys out there for cheap. And what the hell Wist I am one of the few who share your hate for Barnett and your view he is average but you want to give 6 million a year to an aging average back?

Yep, it should be noted that the two league leaders in big run % were both second round picks.

[woodbuck27]

I guess now we'll get a good look at Morency.....but he will never be an Ahman Green class of RB. I'll withhold judgment on TT to see what he has up his sleeve regarding the RB situation…..but if he leaves the team without a running game after Favre decided to come back the fucker should be shot.

It still seems to me that most of Ted Thompson's moves are much to do just with that.

Getting Favre to let go through discouragement.

If the forum members can't see that. Your in denial.

If OUR offense was much less than steller last season, then it's worse after losing Ahman Green.

[wist43]

seems to me that those stats also show the guys that are the youngest with the freshest legs get the most big runs which leads me to think with Morency it may be a mistake to take a high profile young cahnge of pace guy in the draft. We need a powerful steady bruiser that gets 2-5 yards every carry there are several of those guys out there for cheap. And what the hell Wist I am one of the few who share your hate for Barnett and your view he is average but you want to give 6 million a year to an aging average back?

I didn't want to give Green $6 mil/yr... My recommended number was at $4 mil/yr... Had they offered him that, with a similar signing bonus, he'd still be a Packer.

As everyone knows, the only number that matter is guarenteed money... $6 mil signing bonus - two productive years??? Even if he falls off the face of the earth after the 2nd year, you cut him after June 1st and he then only counts $1.5 against the next two caps.

Unless the Packers land someone like Lamont Jordan - who at this point would be at the top of my wish list - they're definitely going to rue the day the let Green walk - over what, $1.5 mil/yr???

I guess the bottom line is I hold Green in higher standing than most of you guys - damn good back.

That said, all bets are off for Greens production in Houston - terrible team, terrible organization.