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Mock draft No. 7
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
Note: Pat Kirwan will update his mock draft each week between now and the April 28-29 draft.
Kirwan's mock drafts: March 4 | March 12 | March 19 | March 22 | March 28 | April 3
(April 9, 2007) -- If nothing else, working up a mock draft every week demonstrates the volatility in the draft process. Every free-agent signing and trade has an effect on the draft. Every workout by a draft eligible athlete can change the direction of one team selecting and that in turn changes what a number of teams will do.
This is my seventh mock draft, and even though most of the names selected as first-round players six mock drafts ago remain the same, the teams in the vicinity of choosing the players has changed. Free agency and trades will still affect the first round of this draft. Michael Turner appears to be the player to change the course of the first round the most if he gets traded. Some observers think Randy Moss has the clout to reconfigure the first round, but most insiders believe that even when he redoes his contract for a new team, he has a better chance of changing how the second round unfolds than the first round.
Note: Changes from the sixth mock draft are marked with an asterisk.
1. **Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- The Raiders have lots of needs, but as long as quarterback is one of them, they have to respond by selecting the guy with the great deep ball, JaMarcus Russell.
As I said last week, the Raiders are pushing forward to trade for Josh McCown. The compensation the Lions rejected was a fifth-round pick, but it appears they could move up a pick in the first round to close the deal. The Lions aren't going to give McCown away, but a quarterback that has one year left on his deal and didn't play a down last year can't be worth more than a fourth-round pick.
I'm sure the Raiders would love to have McCown in a Raiders uniform to start the season until Russell is ready. The biggest point about the Raiders' intentions to use the mobile McCown until Russell is ready and then make the switch is that Oakland is not looking to renegotiate McCown's $2 million salary to make the trade happen.
2. **Detroit: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin -- The Raiders will leave Detroit in the second spot and that will have great value with Calvin Johnson still on the board. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions and Bucs have already considered compensation to switch spots or have Detroit select Johnson and then trade him to Tampa much like the Chargers and Giants did with Eli Manning. Detroit winds up with Thomas, although Brady Quinn would be my pick.
3. **Cleveland: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- With JaMarcus Russell, gone the Browns would be wise to just take Quinn. Getting Trent Green in a trade wouldn't solve their long-range problems at the most important position in football. Arizona at No. 5 could call the Browns in an attempt to get Joe Thomas if he's available. The problem could be that Tampa's threats to take Brady Quinn if Johnson is gone would leave Cleveland a spot below Tampa if they traded with the Cardinals.
4. **Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- There would be no reason for the Bucs to move up if Calvin Johnson goes at the top spot, but this week it looks like Johnson will be there. Some how, some way Tampa Bay announce Calvin Johnson as their first-round selection.
5. **Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson -- The Cardinals need Joe Thomas more than any other player, but unless they move up, he will be gone. Taking Levi Brown, the Penn State left tackle, isn't a bad idea. They could entertain a call from the Vikings at the No. 7 spot to move down and get Brown there because Minnesota could really use Gaines Adams. Or the Cardinals stay right where they are and take Adams with his 28 sacks and 44 tackles for a loss. The Cardinals would love to move down and pay less if Brown is their second choice.
6. Washington: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- There are a lot of rumors that the Redskins will trade out of this spot if they can get their hands on Chicago linebacker Lance Briggs. The Briggs trade appears dead for the time being, but agent Drew Rosenhaus will get it moving again in a week or two. If they stay in the No. 6 spot, the Redskins could take Alan Branch, but his stock has dropped slightly. For now, Washington stays put and takes Okoye. Washington may try to move down a few spots but Okoye will not disappoint.
7. **Minnesota: LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- It appears the Vikings would have to move up for Quinn or Adams, but if they stay put then Landry is a solid pick. He's a 'matchup' player who can help in many ways.
8. **Atlanta: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State -- The Falcons sit in the No. 8 spot instead No. 10 spot after trading Matt Schaub to Houston. LaRon Landry should be gone, so the discussion will be about Levi Brown and maybe Adrian Peterson. Atlanta selects BROWN and plugs him in at left tackle for the next10 years.
9. **Miami: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan -- With the Falcons taking Levi Brown, who would have given Miami the perfect player to finally fill the shoes of Richmond Webb, the Dolphins turn to defense and select Branch. The big defensive lineman will clog up the running game, protect the middle linebacker and help collapse the pocket.
10. Houston: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- Houston moved down two spots in the Schaub trade and probably lost the chance to take Levi Brown, so the Texans call Peterson's name. Even though they signed Ahman Green, Peterson is the highest-rated player on their board at this point. Tampa Bay would sure like a call from Houston to move up. Michael Turner, the Chargers running back who is a restricted free agent, could affect this pick. If Turner ever became a Texan, then Houston could take a corner.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Carriker is a great fit for coach Mike Nolan and his desire to build a solid 3-4 defense with high-character players. He plugs in as a rookie and holds his spot for eight to 10 years. Some talk about the top wide receivers left on the board will be very tempting, but good receivers will still be on the board when the Niners pick at No. 42 -- defensive ends won't be.
12. Buffalo: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Willis is the best middle linebacker in the draft, and the Bills lost London Fletcher in free agency and traded Takeo Spikes to the Eagles. Willis ran under 4.4 in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day and is a tackling machine. Willis can play the Will position and Angelo Crowell can play the Mike. Don't be surprised if Buffalo tries to move down a few spots and save some money with its pick.
13. **St. Louis: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- Signing Lenny Walls and Mike Rumph has not solved the Rams' secondary issues. They probably regret letting defensive tackle Ryan Pickett go and this pick offers a chance to recover, but unless the Rams get ahead of the 49ers to get Adam Carriker, they select Revis. There might be some discussion about fast-rising defensive tackle Justin Harrell from Tennessee, who just demonstrated he's healthy from his bicep injury with 31 reps on the bench-press test.
14. Carolina: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (Fla.) -- If the Panthers wanted Willis, they would have moved up, but the Carolina decision-makers seem very impressed with Olsen. The Panthers need a linebacker but this crop does not impress them enough. Olsen would help solve Carolina's third-down problems and also help Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson. Olsen is coach John Fox's kind of player and this pick makes a lot of sense.
15. **Pittsburgh: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee -- Harrell is now weighing in at 314 pounds and his workout has NFL people talking first round. He can play defensive end in the 3-4 scheme and can always move to tackle in the 4-3 if the Steelers ever go in that direction down the road.
16. **Green Bay:
Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas -- There is downward pressure on the running backs in this draft and running back Marshawn Lynch suffers because of things out of his control.
A receiver like Dwayne Bowe would give Brett Favre another big target, but both the running back and receiver positions have talent in the second round.
A safety like Reggie Nelson is intriguing, but Anderson's got a better grade than any of the players mentioned and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is no longer in the plans.
Comment woodbuck27:
Lots of talent below this #16 pick, thus opportunity to trade down.
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17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- Deon Grant is gone, so a starting safety is needed. There will be discussions about other safeties like Michael Griffin, but Nelson's personal workout should make him the choice. The Jaguars could embrace the idea of taking Lawrence Timmons at this spot.
18. **Cincinnati: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- The Bengals want a corner or a safety. Hall is a solid pick and the Bengals will love the 'solid citizen' as much as the player. There will be some discussion about the linebackers left on the board and there is also some disappointment the Steelers took Harrell.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Drew Bennett is gone and offensive coordinator Norm Chow needs a few of his "own guys." Jarrett scores touchdowns and is a very big target in the red zone. Some people have Jarrett out of the first round, but here's a guy who scored a touchdown once every five receptions. Running back Marshawn Lynch looks real tempting at this spot.
By addressing their linebacker needs in free agency, the Giants can take Dwayne Bowe.
20. **N.Y. Giants: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- Everyone is talking linebacker to the Giants, especially with Paul Posluszny and Lawrence Timmons still on the board. The Giants need one, and with Cato June signing with the Bucs, the free-agent market is lean. But the Giants completed a transaction to acquire Kavika Mitchell, the Kansas City free-agent linebacker, so they can pick a receiver. Plaxico Burress can't be a long term answer when he rarely shows up in the offseason and Amani Toomer is coming off an injury.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos lost out in their pursuit of Patrick Kerney, so Moss makes some sense at this spot. I would be concerned about Moss' strength, but he does flash pass-rush skills.
22. **Dallas: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee -- The signing of veteran safety Ken Hamlin changes the thinking in Dallas. Terrell Owens has a big roster bonus due after the draft, and whether they pay it or release him, he is not a long-term answer for QB Tony Romo. If Meachem is gone, then one of the other quality wideouts will be there.
23. Kansas City: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- The Chiefs really want a great defensive tackle at this spot but the draft board says wait -- because the best are gone. A move up for Okoye is too difficult to get done and the late rise of Harrell hurt their ace in the hole, so the pick here is Ginn. If Ginn does fall to the Chiefs, it will be a big day for the Chiefs offense. He will push the field and create underneath lanes for tight end Tony Gonzalez. He also has eight touchdowns on kick returns, and Dante Hall isn't the player he once was.
24. **New England: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The Pats are working out all the top corners and Asante Samuels is starting to talk about a trade. Ross is too hard to pass up at this point.
25. **N.Y. Jets: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- The Jets need help in the secondary, the defensive line and tight end. With Olsen gone, the Jets discuss the remaining corners and take Houston, who has match-man skills.
26. **Philadelphia: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State -- The Eagles set up their trade with the Bills by signing free agent Monte Reagor so they could trade Darwin Walker, so now they will turn to a cornerback or safety or linebacker. They will discuss a corner like Marcus McCauley, who has the talent but there are lingering questions about a concussion he had last season.
27. **New Orleans: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State -- The Saints would love a tight end like Greg Olsen, a corner like Chris Houston or a defensive tackle, but picking down at No. 27 is a new experience for the Saints franchise. They will have to move up to get those players, so they could make a call to Dallas because Jerry Jones loves to make trades on draft day and the No. 22 spot ensures a corner could be had. If they stay put, then it could be Posluszny.
28. New England: Ryan Kalil, C, USC -- With two first-round picks and a very aggressive offseason in the free-agency market, the Patriots can afford to take the highest-rated center and not worry about the position for a very long time.
29. Baltimore: Anthony Spencer, LB/DE, Purdue -- The Ravens lost Adalius Thomas and are prepared to play with the guys they have on the roster, but Spencer might fall to them and he is a perfect fit as a pressure player. Joe Staley could fit at guard right now and be the replacement for Jonathan Ogden when he finally retires.
30. **San Diego: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- The wide receivers were hit pretty hard with five selected in the first round already. Griffin is a solid player and there's a better chance of finding a quality receiver at the No. 62 spot than a safety like Griffin. Of course, trading Michael Turner would put San Diego in a position to get both things done. I think they like USC receiver Steve Smith.
31. Chicago: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami (Fla.) -- Lance Briggs could be traded to Washington. Even if he's not, it doesn't look like Chicago ever intends to do a long-term deal with him. A wide receiver is a possibility, but Beason would solve a more immediate problem. Left tackle Joe Staley is also still on the board and he will be hard to resist.
32. **Indianapolis: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami -- The Colts could have excellent players to look at down at the bottom of the round. There's no doubt they could use a safety like Meriweather with Mike Doss gone. They might also consider Marshawn Lynch to replace the role Dominic Rhodes played, reach for a defensive tackle like Tank Tyler, or they could replace linebacker Cato June.
Players who could easily hear their names called in the first round but were not part of this mock draft include OT Joe Staley, RB Marshawn Lynch, OG Ben Grubbs, DE Charles Johnson and CB Marcus McCauley.
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