Packers WR's vs Other Teams

[run pMc]

If we're just talking about this season, I'd trade for ARI, DET, SEA, STL, maybe NO, maybe CAR, and maybe DAL on the NFC side. On the AFC side, I'd trade for DEN, IND, NE, CIN, and probably NYJ. That's 12 teams I'd at least consider...so that probably puts GB's WR squad in the middle of the league as far as talent. I do agree that (God forbid) if something happens to DD the passing game will be be in big trouble.

(I didn't count KoRo as being on the squad.)

Any news on how the rookies are practicing thus far? All I heard was that Jones had a nice TD catch.

[Fritz]

Part of the differences of opinion come from how you value the future. If you want talent just for this season, you'd go with Dallas, featuring TO and T. Glenn. But if you are looking more to the future you'd go with Detroit, who has Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. Given that, I like Green Bay's situation - in 08 and 09, when Jennings, Jones, and Clowney ought to be developing nicely and Driver ought to still be playing at a high level. But for this year, yeah, it looks a little skinny.

As for GB's situation, well, it is full of "ifs." But what team's siutation isn't? NE should be great - IF Tom Brady stays healthy (which he has historically), and if Randy Moss doesn't sabotage the team and if he returns to form(which he didn't after getting moved from Minny to Oakland).

Noboldy really knows. That's part of the fun.

[The Leaper]

Leaper, we have a difference in opinion. Spouting off bullshit like I didn't read your post, I didn't do any research, or best yet, I am insane, is childish and ridiculous.

I read your post, I did research, and I come to a different opinion. My opinion is no less reasonable than yours.

You certainly did not read my first post. You clearly asked how I could rank the rookie WRs...WHEN I CLEARLY EXPLAINED HOW I RANKED THEM in my original post. If you had read it completely, you would have known...that is simply a fact.

In my opinion, you are overrating the other teams' guys and underrating our own. Based upon draft position---which is NOT the only way to evaluate young players; what about college production?---you give completely unproven guys gaudy ratings based upon potential alone.

College production is different. A guy may put up lesser numbers, but play in a much harder conference. Putting up 1500 yards and 15 TDs in the WAC is a hell of a lot different than putting up 1500 yards and 15 TDs in the SEC.

The bottom line is that all rookies have right now is potential, and I would like to see some EVIDENCE on your part as to why my rankings are lame. To this point, you haven't offered much of anything in terms of analysis...while I have.

If this is your mode of thinking, why don't you have Fergie rated as our 3rd receiver with a rating similar to that of Greg Jennings?

Why should I? He's never put up stats comparable to Jennings' last year on a conistent basis...and has only been over 400 yards once in his career. He is routinely injured. He had FIVE WHOLE CATCHES last year. How that equates to a similar rating as Jennings is beyond me. Care to explain...or are you simply going to continue to dismiss my analysis with no real explanation to back it up?

Lemme guess ... because he's older and always injured? But so is Eric Johnson, and you conveniently ignore that fact with him. Sure, Johnson put up better numbers last year than Bubba Franks---barely---but what did Johnson do the season before last? Oh that's right---nothing! He was injured for the entire year.

Johnson put up better numbers than Franks last year PART TIME as a #2 TIGHT END!! So how the hell are you going to sit here and argue that I'm an idiot for saying that Johnson is a better receiver as a TE? Yes, he missed a couple years due to injury. That is why I rate him WELL BELOW the point of being a reliable receiver. However, when healthy, the guy is clearly a very capable receiver who can easily put up 45 catches and 500 yards. There isn't a chance in hell Bubba gets anywhere near those numbers again.

I might be wrong, but you might be too. No need to act like you are the only one who can read and do research. Get over yourself.

No, I'm just acting like I'm the only one WHO DID RESEARCH, because it is a fact. I didn't just come into the discussion and claim that Green Bay's receivers were just about as good as anyone else's without providing some detailed reasoning behind it.

My rankings aren't genius...they are merely based solely on the information available that show pretty easily how Smith is better than Driver. To think otherwise is CONTRARY to the vast majority of NFL observers and personnel. I pointed out the facts to prove it...in less playing time over the prior 2 years, he racked up more yards and 50% more TDs. In my world, and in the world of most other objective observers, that means Smith is a bigger playmaker and better receiver...especially when you consider that I would feel that Favre is a better QB than Delhomme.

So, other than simply stating "I think Driver is better", how do you back up your assertion? WHY do you think Driver is better? WHAT EVIDENCE is there that Driver is better? To this point, you haven't offered ANYTHING in that regard.

[the_idle_threat]

Whatever, dude.

It's abundantly clear that we have both looked at the history on these players, and we have differences of opinion. I think your numerical "ratings" are arbitrary and meaningless, and you think the same about my arguments. Looks like a stalemate to me. Are you mature enough to come to the same realization?

Apparently not.

You continue to insist I haven't read your posts and I haven't done any research, when in fact it is plainly obvious that I have done both. You don't want to admit it, but it is possible to do these things and still disagree with you.

Time to move on to another thread.

[esoxx]

For god sakes idle, just read the damn posts! :P

[the_idle_threat]

For god sakes idle, just read the damn posts! :P

No matter how many times I read them, they still don't make any damned sense! :P :P

[The Leaper]

I think your numerical "ratings" are arbitrary and meaningless, and you think the same about my arguments.

Fine.

You think Driver, with 200 less yards and 7 less TDs over a 2 year period, is better than Steve Smith.

You think Bubba Franks is as good of a receiver as Eric Johnson, even though Franks did less in that capacity last year than Johnson...despite the fact that Johnson wasn't even a full-time starter in SF behind Vernon Davis.

If being able to post better stats than another player over a 16 or 32 game period isn't enough to change your mind, then don't mind me...just keep drinking the kool-aid and expecting Bubba Franks to light it up with 50 catches and 8 TDs this year.

[the_idle_threat]

I didn't say Driver was clearly better than Smith ... I invite you to go back and re-read my post. Better yet, I'll cut and paste what I wrote:

Carolina is probably a little better than us at #1, although that is debatable.

I said it was debateable that Smith is clearly better than Driver.

I find it interesting and very telling that you look at the past 2 years for Driver vs. Smith (because last year alone favors Driver) and only last year alone for Franks vs. Johnson (because the last 2 years favors Franks).

The numbers can lead to different conclusions depending upon where you draw the lines, and you are drawing your lines very carefully.

Incidentally, if Bubba scores 8 touchdowns next year, he will have scored more touchdowns in one season than Eric Johnson has scored in his entire career (7). That's a fact, which you can look up here if you don't believe it.

Of course, Bubba scored 9 touchdowns in 2001, 7 touchdowns in 2002 and 7 more touchdowns in 2004. Source.

I don't expect Bubba to score 8 touchdowns this season---that is something you made up---but it seems to me that Bubba has a far greater chance of doing that then Johnson does.

[The Leaper]

I find it interesting and very telling that you look at the past 2 years for Driver vs. Smith (because last year alone favors Driver) and only last year alone for Franks vs. Johnson (because the last 2 years favors Franks).

How is it interesting? In fact, I clearly noted these very points in my first post...showing where players missed time. If a guy misses a season due to injury, OF COURSE his stats will be less. That is why Bubba has better stats (only VERY slightly) than Johnson over 2 years.

Hell, if you want to take it to an average per game played, be my guest. It will only make the disparity between Driver and Smith even greater...and prove just how anemic Bubba's stats really are.

I don't expect Bubba to score 8 touchdowns this season---that is something you made up---but it seems to me that Bubba has a far greater chance of doing that then Johnson does.

I disagree. Johnson is a decent receiving TE when healthy...much better than Franks. If he does stay healthy, he will be playing on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL and probably will put up much better stats than Bubba. Remember, most of Johnson's career (when healthy) has been spent on horrible offensive teams...his one good season was with Garcia on an OK team. Bubba's great seasons were with strong offensive teams. Now that the team has struggled on offense in recent years, his production has gone into the crapper. I don't see how 2007 will be any different in that regard.

I certainly agree that Johnson is a much greater health risk than Bubba. However, I think I would much rather take the health risk when I know the guy could put up solid numbers when healthy...which Johnson has. Bubba has been fairly healthy the last two years...and has nothing to show for it.

[the_idle_threat]

If you wanna compare apples to apples, compare Driver and Smith in the 5-year period from 2002 to 2006, since both Driver and Smith became starters for the first time in 2002. You will find the overall numbers actually favor Driver, no matter how you break them down. Smith had 1 great season, and has not been better than Driver otherwise.

One huge difference in opinion between us is that I don't excuse a player for being injured. I put a premium on 16-game players, and I think teams should not count on guys who prove to be injury-prone.

An injured player continues to get paid, and he leaves the team with a big hole in the starting lineup that has to be filled by a lesser player. It's one thing if a guy gets hurt once, maybe even twice. But when it becomes a pattern, you have to discount the guy's expected production by the amount of time he will probably miss due to injury.

Bubba looked pretty bad for much of last year, but at least he has a chance of improving and doing something to help the team when he is on the field, as opposed to a guy like Johnson who spends too much time standing around on the sideline in street clothes. He can't catch any balls or score any touchdowns there!

Bubba missed six games in 2005, but has played in all 16 games in his other 6 seasons, for a career attendance of 95% (106 of 112). Johnson has played in 57 of 96 games in his career (59%).

Incidentally, this is the one big reservation I have about Justin Harrell. I think he will be a guy who makes the defense a lot better when he plays, but then leaves the team vulnerable when he inevitably sits down for a few games. That's why we need a good rotation there that includes guys like Corey Williams, who are less talented players but can do well as a spot starters when needed.

[Packgator]

Re: Packers WR's vs Other Teams

What NFC teams would you make that deal with? (Packers top 5 WR's straight up for theirs with no salary cap considerations).

Why stop there.......

What teams in the entire league would you make that deal with?

This time of year you have to project the top five. But all the talk makes it sound like the Packers would love to have what most teams already have. The reality may actually be quite different.

I would trade top 5 WRs with nearly ANY team in the NFL.

Let's be real here. Driver is fabulous, but is getting to the point where age will have a negative effect. He has 2-3 good years left. Jennings is a solid prospect, but he's not a playmaker. No one else on the roster has proven anything on the field yet.

I don't have time to go 5 deep on every roster and break it down...but I would guess that there are at least 24 of 32 teams that I would trade straight up for, and the only reason the number isn't higher is Driver. Take the #1 WR out of the equation, and Green Bay may have the most unproven group of WRs in the NFL.

That doesn't mean they will turn out to be crap. I'm hoping Jones and Clowney become studs. I'm not going to bet on it though.

Still feel that way?

[Bretsky]

ah, the dreaded the thread was dead six months ago so I'm bumping it for the I told you so effect.

I'm sure we all would now agree that our top 5 WR's are among the top of the NFL. Maybe NE and the Colts would be better. Not sure about any others.

Lots of people ate crow this season and we are more than happy to do it.

[The Leaper]

Re: Packers WR's vs Other Teams

Still feel that way?

Nope. I was wrong. Jones has been a huge surprise. I thought he'd be in way over his head. Jennings has been able to stay healthy and has made a ton of plays as well.

However, I don't think our WRs are heads and shoulders above most NFL teams. They work hard and have a great relationship with Favre, which is the main reason why they are all so successful. They are certainly an above-average group...but by themselves they are not elite. There is a reason Favre wanted a guy like Moss in the offseason.

The bottom line is that our passing game is successful because of #4. If you put Jason Campbell out there, there is no way that our WRs would look anywhere near as good as they do. They are a very solid group of WRs, but Favre is what allows them to be great. His ability to read defenses and direct the WRs on what to do is second to none.

I still think there are probably 10-12 teams who have a better set of receivers talent-wise than we do in terms of the top 3. Most of them just don't have one of the greatest QBs of all-time tossing them the ball. That is the difference. We certainly have the DEEPEST corp at WR in the league...I'm not sure if it is the most TALENTED. We just have three solid "B grade" receivers behind our starters...which few teams can claim.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Re: Packers WR's vs Other Teams

I still think there are probably 10-12 teams who have a better set of receivers talent-wise than we do in terms of the top 3.

I don't think so. Driver is a top 12 receiver. Jennings has to be one of the best #2 receivers. Jones or Robinson would rank in the top 10 3rd receivers.

[The Leaper]

Re: Packers WR's vs Other Teams

I still think there are probably 10-12 teams who have a better set of receivers talent-wise than we do in terms of the top 3.

I don't think so. Driver is a top 12 receiver. Jennings has to be one of the best #2 receivers. Jones or Robinson would rank in the top 10 3rd receivers.

Well, I'm including good TEs as a top 3 receiver.

I'll take NE with Moss, Welker and Stallworth.
I'll take ARI with Fitzgerald, Boldin, whoever
I'll take CIN with Johnson, Housh, whoever
I'll take IND with Harrison, Wayne, Clark
I'll take CLE with Edwards, Bryant, Winslow
I'll take DAL with Owens, Witten, Glenn

Those six are definites in my mind. Then there are probably 6-8 teams that are toss ups. I guess I'll give GB the benefit of the doubt though based on production. They are a top 8 team in terms of their top 3 receivers. I'm doing this as if everyone is healthy...in terms of right now this season, Green Bay moves up because some of these teams ahead of them are beat up while the Packers are relatively healthy at WR/TE.

I don't see Driver as a top 12 receiver. He's not a red zone threat whatsoever. Personally, I think it is hard to put Driver in the top 15 receivers in the league in terms of talent. 63 catches...2 TDs. That isn't very good. Out of the top 40 receivers in yardage right now, only guys like Cotchery, Hilliard and Randel El have found paydirt less often. He's strictly a possession receiver.

To me, Jennings is probably about the same talent level as Driver...not as consistent, but can make huge plays. 40 catches...9 TDs. That is production. I see both of these guys as around the 25th-30th spots as receivers. Driver has the consistency, but can't score. Jennings isn't overly consistent, but makes plays when needed anywhere on the field. They are a great combo, but alone they don't have the complete package.

Jones intrigues me. His development will be interesting to watch. He has tremendous hands. He's more like Driver than Jennings...probably a great replacement for Driver in 2-3 years. Arguably a top 50 guy right now.

Koren is an enigma. He's got the talent to be in the top 50, but after being out of the league for a year he has some work to do to get back in form. He's the best #4 WR in the league though. Lee has made some plays, but he isn't anywhere near the top 50 as a receiver.