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Packers hope Grant will be more than a one-hit wonder
Posted: Dec. 8, 2007
Bob McGinn
Green Bay - Just how good is Ryan Grant?
The Green Bay Packers will know more after today, the next three Sundays and the playoffs. Then they will have to make the critical decision on Grant that will determine their strategy in free agency and the National Football League draft.
After passing up a trade for Michael Turner this year, general manager Ted Thompson will have the financial wherewithal to make a run at the San Diego Chargers running back when he hits the unrestricted free-agent market in March.
The group of senior running backs in this draft class couldn't be much worse. However, the top running backs usually declare a year early, and as many as five underclassmen appear to have the talent to interest the Packers with their late first-round selection if they go for a back.
Assuming he comes out, Arkansas' Darren McFadden could be the first running back selected No. 1 since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995.
According to four executives in personnel for NFL clubs, some other juniors with definite first-round ability are Oregon's Jonathan Stewart, Illinois' Rashard Mendenhall, Arkansas' Felix Jones and Central Florida's Kevin Smith.
Two months ago, it appeared as if the Packers would be forced to take a back. Back then, they were limping along with unexciting rookie Brandon Jackson, run-of-the-mill veteran Vernand Morency and rookie DeShawn Wynn, the quintessential tease.
Then Wynn got hurt early in Denver and Grant got the call. Since then, Grant has received 88.5% of the carries given to the team's running backs. He has responded with 561 yards in 115 carries (4.9-yard average) and four touchdowns.
Asked Friday if he hoped Grant would be his starter in 2008, coach Mike McCarthy replied: "I hope so."
"Thing I like about him, he improves every chance he gets," continued McCarthy. "I haven't just cut this guy loose and run him 25 or 30 times, but I think he can be a 20 to 25 rush a game guy. He's only going to get better.
"Just the little things he keeps getting more comfortable with. Screens. Check-downs. And all that."
Is Grant a legitimate starting running back?
"I think he can be," McCarthy said. "I think he needs to get a little stronger. He has the frame to do it.
"It was a great trade, especially at that time (Sept. 1). You usually don't hit those. Great kid, too. Class act. Smart. Tough."
Grant, who will celebrate his 25th birthday tonight with perhaps a career-high number of carries against Oakland, did next to nothing in his first two NFL seasons as an undrafted free agent for the New York Giants. A scout for one of the teams in the NFC East Division rated Grant better than any of the senior running backs but still isn't sold on him.
"Grant is doing well for them, but I don't think by any means is he a legitimate starting running back in the NFL," the personnel man said. "He's a crease runner. Runs hard in a crease and has some strength. But I think if you're going into next year saying, 'This is our guy,' I don't think many people will be scared of you."
Another personnel man who has studied almost all of Grant's games on tape also expressed reservations.
"He's probably better than I thought," the scout said. "But he's run through some giant holes. He doesn't have to face many eight-man fronts. I think Ted has to get a back."
The Packers' last first-round foray on a running back was for the forgettable Darrell Thompson in 1990. John Brockington was an instant hit in 1971, but the Packers failed with Barty Smith in '74 and Brent Fullwood in '87 and ran into buzzard's luck with Eddie Lee Ivery in '79.
Presently, Green Bay has six selections, sending its sixth-rounder to the Giants for Grant. Having lost Ahman Green and David Martin in unrestricted free agency against the signing of only Frank Walker, the club can be expected to receive a compensatory choice when they're announced in late March.
Thompson offered incontrovertible proof in April with the selection of defensive tackle Justin Harrell that he doesn't draft early for need. At some point, however, the Packers will be looking to improve in several obvious areas.
As of now, they don't have a guard any better than average. Guards Ben Grubbs, Davin Joseph and Logan Mankins all went to teams late in the first round of the past three drafts and excelled, but guard looks like the worst position in the draft, so there won't be a player like that waiting for Green Bay with its first pick.
On the other hand, the tackle position is as deep as it has been in years. As many as six seniors and three juniors, all of whom are expected to declare, could make the first round, and the Packers need successors to Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton.
At tight end, where the Packers might be looking for two players to join Donald Lee, the expected influx of juniors makes it a representative group.
The Packers should be fine in the defensive line even if Corey Williams departs as a free agent, and with Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk in the fold, linebacker isn't a major area of concern. The defensive backfield, however, is a much different proposition.
"I still have questions about the secondary," one personnel man said. "(Charles) Woodson is year to year. (Al) Harris is probably done."
It's a so-so year at cornerback and much worse at safety, where the Packers remain unsettled. They also still need a return specialist.
Here's a look at how the 2008 draft is shaping up based on interviews with scouts:
RECEIVERS
"The senior class is not a great group," one scout said. "It really isn't. And, really, the junior wide receivers aren't that great, either."
Given the weak senior class, it wouldn't surprise if five juniors declare and then become the first five selected. The list includes Oklahoma's Malcolm Kelly (6 feet 3 1/2 inches, 220 pounds), California's Desean Jackson (5 feet 11 1/2 inches, 177 pounds), Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey (6-1 1/2, 205), Indiana's James Hardy (6-6, 215) and Michigan's Mario Manningham (6-0, 180).
"He's Teddy Ginn with more athletic ability," one scout said, referring to Jackson. "Big-time speed. Very thin. Terrific punt returner."
Kelly has big speed. Heyward-Bey is a third-year sophomore and needs seasoning. Hardy caught 16 touchdown passes. Manningham, according to one scout, "was inconsistent. Every game I've seen him he's dropping balls and pouting. I'd be surprised if he came out."
Probably the best senior, Texas' Limas Sweed (6-4 1/2, 220), was limited to four games by a wrist injury. In no way can he be compared to Roy Williams, another former Longhorn WR.
At tight end, Notre Dame's John Carlson (6-5, 255) is a fairly complete player, Southern California's Fred Davis (6-3 1/2, 247) and Missouri's Martin Rucker (6-4 1/2, 247) are dynamic receivers and California's Craig Stevens (6-3 1/2, 251) might be the best blocker.
"There's no Greg Olson-type player," one scout said. "They all have holes. They're either receivers or blockers."
As a group, the top five juniors are better than the top seniors. The list includes Oklahoma State's Brandon Pettigrew (6-6, 260), Missouri's Chase Coffman (6-5 1/2, 254), Florida's Cornelius Ingram (6-3 1/2, 230), Wisconsin's Travis Beckum (6-3, 225) and Texas A&M's Martellus Bennett (6-6 1/2, 275).
Coffman is the son of former Packers tight end Paul Coffman.
"He's got size, toughness, hands better than his dad," one scout said. "Faster than his dad. He's as reckless running after the catch as his dad."
Ingram and Beckum are stretch-the-field types that could figure as wide receivers. Bennett played two seasons of basketball and almost declared for the NBA before trying football.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Michigan's Jake Long (6-7, 320) gets most of the publicity, but most scouts view him strictly as a right tackle.
"He's not a great athlete," one scout said. "He likes to get rough like some of the Michigan guys have in the past. I just don't see an offensive lineman in the top 15 picks. I just don't see that top-notch Joe Thomas guy."
Pittsburgh's Jeffrey Otah (6-6, 339), a native of Nigeria who played just one year of high school ball, has left-tackle athleticism, as does Vanderbilt's Chris Williams (6-6, 317). Others seniors with first-round potential are USC's Sam Baker (6-5, 314), a four-year starter, and Texas-El Paso's Oniel Cousins (6-4, 300).
"If Williams turned it up a notch as far as his nastiness, he'd be a top-five pick," one scout said. "Top, top athlete. Smart. Strong. More of a finesse blocker."
Boise State's Ryan Clady (6-6, 315), Oklahoma's Phil Loadholt (6-7, 350) and Mississippi's Michael Oher (6-5 1/2, 320), the top junior tackles, all are projected to declare.
Wake Forest's Steve Justice (6-3 1/2, 283) heads a group of competent centers, but there simply are no guards unless Oklahoma junior Duke Robinson (6-5, 335) declares. Even then, he's just a big mauler.
"People are talking about moving tackles into guard," one scout said. "We don't have any (guards), particularly first-dayish."
QUARTERBACKS
With no juniors in the picture, the only seniors in the first round look like Boston College's Matt Ryan (6-5, 221) and Louisville's Brian Brohm (6-3, 227).
"Everybody is going to take Ryan first," one scout said. "He's not as athletic as Jay Cutler. He probably is smarter in terms of seeing stuff and being competitive. I think Brohm was (a disappointment in '07). He's a silver-spoon guy. I don't think he's tough."
Another scout said Ryan was more talented than Matt Leinart and better than Brady Quinn or Aaron Rodgers. A third scout categorized him as a "system" QB, questioned his improvisational skill and gave him a second-round grade.
Kentucky's Andre' Woodson (6-4 1/2, 220) has a rifle for an arm but is viewed more as a project.
"He's got that long, exaggerated delivery like Kerry Collins," one scout said. "He will disappoint you at times by making bad decisions. Doesn't run very (fast). You'd like to have him at the top of the second, but so many teams need quarterbacks I think he goes in the first."
At this point, no one else has a shot at the first round.
RUNNING BACKS
"Terrible, terrible," one scout said, referring to the seniors. "My best grade now might be a fourth-round grade. You can have (Michigan's) Mike Hart. Little, small and slow. That doesn't play too good in the NFL."
The five leading juniors plus a few more appear set to turn a thin position into a strong one. The top dog is McFadden (6-1 1/2, 218).
"McFadden is better than (Adrian) Peterson, and Peterson is rookie of the year," one scout said. "He's a little bit bigger than Peterson and he can just flat-out run. Unlike Peterson, he hasn't had injuries. He has it all. Darren is just a natural football player."
Stewart (5-10, 230), according to another scout, "is a power runner with good feet and quickness and maneuverability."
Mendenhall (5-10 1/2, 225), a combination of talent and toughness, exploded for 1,526 yards (6.2) as a junior. Smith (6-0, 210) led the nation with 2,448 yards (5.9) and 29 TDs.
"Smith plays like Mendenhall," one scout said. "He's got the quick feet and will bounce it outside."
Jones (5-11 1/2, 205), the best kickoff returner in the draft, rushed for 1,117 yards (9.1) as McFadden's backup.
"He's maybe a step faster than McFadden," another scout said. "Not as big. You give him 15 touches a game. With him, Brett Favre would want to play a couple more years."
Rutgers' Ray Rice (5-8 1/2, 200), compared by one scout to Joe Morris, is a powerful little back and also might declare.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Virginia's Chris Long (6-3 1/2, 274), the son of former Raider Howie Long, is the top senior defensive end and a top-10 pick.
"You can tell Howie's been working with him for a long, long time," one scout said. "Great effort guy. Knows how to rush the passer. Very productive. People can compare him to Aaron Kampman."
Pushing Long at the position will be three juniors, all of whom are due out: Ohio State's Vernon Gholston (6-4, 260), Clemson's Phillip Merling (6-5, 295) and Florida's Derrick Harvey (6-4, 260).
"Gholston is a physically gifted athlete who can play with speed or power," one scout said. "Unlike guys from Clemson, Merling's motor goes all day long. Some guys like Harvey more than Jarvis Moss."
Georgia Tech's Michael Johnson (6-6 1/2, 250), who has been compared to Jevon Kearse, Louisiana State's Tyson Jackson (6-4 1/2, 295) and Miami's Calais Campbell (6-7 1/2, 285) are other juniors with first-round ability.
Perhaps the most athletic senior DE is Wake Forest's Jeremy Thompson (6-5, 262), the brother of Orrin Thompson, a tackle on the Packers' practice squad.
The pick of the litter at defensive tackle is LSU's Glenn Dorsey (6-1 1/2, 313), who played on a bad knee almost all season.
"He's a top-five player," one scout said. "He can beat a guy one-on-one. He'll demand a double-team. He's got great effort, team leader."
Other first-round tackles figure to be USC's Sedrick Ellis (6-1, 307), a nose tackle with fine quickness, and North Carolina's Kentwan Balmer (6-5, 295), who made his senior season by far his best.
LINEBACKERS
James Laurinaitis (6-2 1/2, 245), the successor to A.J. Hawk at Ohio State, probably will declare and be a top-15 pick.
"He's not as natural as Hawk," one scout said. "If you run the ball between the tackles, he's tough. If you stretch it to the sidelines, he's not as effective as Hawk was."
A group of four other inside players, including USC's Rey Maualuga (6-2 1/2, 255), LSU's Derry Beckwith (6-0 1/2, 235), Oklahoma's Curtis Lofton (6-0, 240) and Tennessee's Jerod Mayo (6-1, 230), all would fall in the first two rounds if they declare.
"(Maualuga) came out and said he wasn't coming out," one scout said. "But I don't know what that's worth. Tough, athletic and fast. First round."
It isn't as good outside, where USC's Keith Rivers (6-3, 237) and Penn State's Dan Connor (6-3, 230) are the top seniors. The top juniors, Penn State's Sean Lee (6-2, 235) and USC's Brian Cushing (6-3 1/2, 235), probably will be back in school.
"Rivers is hit or miss," one scout said. "He will play an athletic game but he will get out of position. Connor is a solid player. Dan easily could be a middle backer."
SECONDARY
"I don't think you'll have a top-five corner like you see in a lot of drafts," one scout said. "Last year was a pretty good group of safeties. This year is not going to be that group."
At cornerback, the probable first-round seniors would be South Florida's Mike Jenkins (5-10 1/2, 200) and Troy's Leodis McKelvin (5-10 1/2, 186).
"Jenkins has big-time speed and big-time quickness," one scout said. "All he plays is press man. McKelvin has a lot of production and is one of the best punt returners in the draft."
If they declare, four juniors would have a shot at the first round: Ohio State's Malcolm Jenkins (6-0 1/2, 200), Oklahoma's Reggie Smith (6-0 1/2, 200), Wisconsin's Jack Ikegwuono (5-11 1/2, 200) and Kansas' Aqib Talib (6-1 1/2, 205).
"Ikegwuono will be right there in the mix," one scout said. "He can man up and run with receivers, and he's got height, weight, speed. He'll probably end up being in the second round."
Said another scout: "He should stay. He's not very good."
Added a third: "We've got to do some research on his character. He's fast and has all the skills. The first round would depend on his workout."
Kenny Phillips (6-1, 200), a junior from Miami, declared Friday and could be the best of a weak corps of safeties. Malcolm Jenkins, Reggie Smith and Talib all might project to safety.
"Phillips hasn't had a great year but nobody did there," one scout said. "Kind of an elite-type athlete. After that, it's just a bunch of third-, fourth-, fifth-round guys."
Posted: Dec. 8, 2007
Bob McGinn
Green Bay - Just how good is Ryan Grant?
The Green Bay Packers will know more after today, the next three Sundays and the playoffs. Then they will have to make the critical decision on Grant that will determine their strategy in free agency and the National Football League draft.
After passing up a trade for Michael Turner this year, general manager Ted Thompson will have the financial wherewithal to make a run at the San Diego Chargers running back when he hits the unrestricted free-agent market in March.
The group of senior running backs in this draft class couldn't be much worse. However, the top running backs usually declare a year early, and as many as five underclassmen appear to have the talent to interest the Packers with their late first-round selection if they go for a back.
Assuming he comes out, Arkansas' Darren McFadden could be the first running back selected No. 1 since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995.
According to four executives in personnel for NFL clubs, some other juniors with definite first-round ability are Oregon's Jonathan Stewart, Illinois' Rashard Mendenhall, Arkansas' Felix Jones and Central Florida's Kevin Smith.
Two months ago, it appeared as if the Packers would be forced to take a back. Back then, they were limping along with unexciting rookie Brandon Jackson, run-of-the-mill veteran Vernand Morency and rookie DeShawn Wynn, the quintessential tease.
Then Wynn got hurt early in Denver and Grant got the call. Since then, Grant has received 88.5% of the carries given to the team's running backs. He has responded with 561 yards in 115 carries (4.9-yard average) and four touchdowns.
Asked Friday if he hoped Grant would be his starter in 2008, coach Mike McCarthy replied: "I hope so."
"Thing I like about him, he improves every chance he gets," continued McCarthy. "I haven't just cut this guy loose and run him 25 or 30 times, but I think he can be a 20 to 25 rush a game guy. He's only going to get better.
"Just the little things he keeps getting more comfortable with. Screens. Check-downs. And all that."
Is Grant a legitimate starting running back?
"I think he can be," McCarthy said. "I think he needs to get a little stronger. He has the frame to do it.
"It was a great trade, especially at that time (Sept. 1). You usually don't hit those. Great kid, too. Class act. Smart. Tough."
Grant, who will celebrate his 25th birthday tonight with perhaps a career-high number of carries against Oakland, did next to nothing in his first two NFL seasons as an undrafted free agent for the New York Giants. A scout for one of the teams in the NFC East Division rated Grant better than any of the senior running backs but still isn't sold on him.
"Grant is doing well for them, but I don't think by any means is he a legitimate starting running back in the NFL," the personnel man said. "He's a crease runner. Runs hard in a crease and has some strength. But I think if you're going into next year saying, 'This is our guy,' I don't think many people will be scared of you."
Another personnel man who has studied almost all of Grant's games on tape also expressed reservations.
"He's probably better than I thought," the scout said. "But he's run through some giant holes. He doesn't have to face many eight-man fronts. I think Ted has to get a back."
The Packers' last first-round foray on a running back was for the forgettable Darrell Thompson in 1990. John Brockington was an instant hit in 1971, but the Packers failed with Barty Smith in '74 and Brent Fullwood in '87 and ran into buzzard's luck with Eddie Lee Ivery in '79.
Presently, Green Bay has six selections, sending its sixth-rounder to the Giants for Grant. Having lost Ahman Green and David Martin in unrestricted free agency against the signing of only Frank Walker, the club can be expected to receive a compensatory choice when they're announced in late March.
Thompson offered incontrovertible proof in April with the selection of defensive tackle Justin Harrell that he doesn't draft early for need. At some point, however, the Packers will be looking to improve in several obvious areas.
As of now, they don't have a guard any better than average. Guards Ben Grubbs, Davin Joseph and Logan Mankins all went to teams late in the first round of the past three drafts and excelled, but guard looks like the worst position in the draft, so there won't be a player like that waiting for Green Bay with its first pick.
On the other hand, the tackle position is as deep as it has been in years. As many as six seniors and three juniors, all of whom are expected to declare, could make the first round, and the Packers need successors to Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton.
At tight end, where the Packers might be looking for two players to join Donald Lee, the expected influx of juniors makes it a representative group.
The Packers should be fine in the defensive line even if Corey Williams departs as a free agent, and with Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk in the fold, linebacker isn't a major area of concern. The defensive backfield, however, is a much different proposition.
"I still have questions about the secondary," one personnel man said. "(Charles) Woodson is year to year. (Al) Harris is probably done."
It's a so-so year at cornerback and much worse at safety, where the Packers remain unsettled. They also still need a return specialist.
Here's a look at how the 2008 draft is shaping up based on interviews with scouts:
RECEIVERS
"The senior class is not a great group," one scout said. "It really isn't. And, really, the junior wide receivers aren't that great, either."
Given the weak senior class, it wouldn't surprise if five juniors declare and then become the first five selected. The list includes Oklahoma's Malcolm Kelly (6 feet 3 1/2 inches, 220 pounds), California's Desean Jackson (5 feet 11 1/2 inches, 177 pounds), Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey (6-1 1/2, 205), Indiana's James Hardy (6-6, 215) and Michigan's Mario Manningham (6-0, 180).
"He's Teddy Ginn with more athletic ability," one scout said, referring to Jackson. "Big-time speed. Very thin. Terrific punt returner."
Kelly has big speed. Heyward-Bey is a third-year sophomore and needs seasoning. Hardy caught 16 touchdown passes. Manningham, according to one scout, "was inconsistent. Every game I've seen him he's dropping balls and pouting. I'd be surprised if he came out."
Probably the best senior, Texas' Limas Sweed (6-4 1/2, 220), was limited to four games by a wrist injury. In no way can he be compared to Roy Williams, another former Longhorn WR.
At tight end, Notre Dame's John Carlson (6-5, 255) is a fairly complete player, Southern California's Fred Davis (6-3 1/2, 247) and Missouri's Martin Rucker (6-4 1/2, 247) are dynamic receivers and California's Craig Stevens (6-3 1/2, 251) might be the best blocker.
"There's no Greg Olson-type player," one scout said. "They all have holes. They're either receivers or blockers."
As a group, the top five juniors are better than the top seniors. The list includes Oklahoma State's Brandon Pettigrew (6-6, 260), Missouri's Chase Coffman (6-5 1/2, 254), Florida's Cornelius Ingram (6-3 1/2, 230), Wisconsin's Travis Beckum (6-3, 225) and Texas A&M's Martellus Bennett (6-6 1/2, 275).
Coffman is the son of former Packers tight end Paul Coffman.
"He's got size, toughness, hands better than his dad," one scout said. "Faster than his dad. He's as reckless running after the catch as his dad."
Ingram and Beckum are stretch-the-field types that could figure as wide receivers. Bennett played two seasons of basketball and almost declared for the NBA before trying football.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Michigan's Jake Long (6-7, 320) gets most of the publicity, but most scouts view him strictly as a right tackle.
"He's not a great athlete," one scout said. "He likes to get rough like some of the Michigan guys have in the past. I just don't see an offensive lineman in the top 15 picks. I just don't see that top-notch Joe Thomas guy."
Pittsburgh's Jeffrey Otah (6-6, 339), a native of Nigeria who played just one year of high school ball, has left-tackle athleticism, as does Vanderbilt's Chris Williams (6-6, 317). Others seniors with first-round potential are USC's Sam Baker (6-5, 314), a four-year starter, and Texas-El Paso's Oniel Cousins (6-4, 300).
"If Williams turned it up a notch as far as his nastiness, he'd be a top-five pick," one scout said. "Top, top athlete. Smart. Strong. More of a finesse blocker."
Boise State's Ryan Clady (6-6, 315), Oklahoma's Phil Loadholt (6-7, 350) and Mississippi's Michael Oher (6-5 1/2, 320), the top junior tackles, all are projected to declare.
Wake Forest's Steve Justice (6-3 1/2, 283) heads a group of competent centers, but there simply are no guards unless Oklahoma junior Duke Robinson (6-5, 335) declares. Even then, he's just a big mauler.
"People are talking about moving tackles into guard," one scout said. "We don't have any (guards), particularly first-dayish."
QUARTERBACKS
With no juniors in the picture, the only seniors in the first round look like Boston College's Matt Ryan (6-5, 221) and Louisville's Brian Brohm (6-3, 227).
"Everybody is going to take Ryan first," one scout said. "He's not as athletic as Jay Cutler. He probably is smarter in terms of seeing stuff and being competitive. I think Brohm was (a disappointment in '07). He's a silver-spoon guy. I don't think he's tough."
Another scout said Ryan was more talented than Matt Leinart and better than Brady Quinn or Aaron Rodgers. A third scout categorized him as a "system" QB, questioned his improvisational skill and gave him a second-round grade.
Kentucky's Andre' Woodson (6-4 1/2, 220) has a rifle for an arm but is viewed more as a project.
"He's got that long, exaggerated delivery like Kerry Collins," one scout said. "He will disappoint you at times by making bad decisions. Doesn't run very (fast). You'd like to have him at the top of the second, but so many teams need quarterbacks I think he goes in the first."
At this point, no one else has a shot at the first round.
RUNNING BACKS
"Terrible, terrible," one scout said, referring to the seniors. "My best grade now might be a fourth-round grade. You can have (Michigan's) Mike Hart. Little, small and slow. That doesn't play too good in the NFL."
The five leading juniors plus a few more appear set to turn a thin position into a strong one. The top dog is McFadden (6-1 1/2, 218).
"McFadden is better than (Adrian) Peterson, and Peterson is rookie of the year," one scout said. "He's a little bit bigger than Peterson and he can just flat-out run. Unlike Peterson, he hasn't had injuries. He has it all. Darren is just a natural football player."
Stewart (5-10, 230), according to another scout, "is a power runner with good feet and quickness and maneuverability."
Mendenhall (5-10 1/2, 225), a combination of talent and toughness, exploded for 1,526 yards (6.2) as a junior. Smith (6-0, 210) led the nation with 2,448 yards (5.9) and 29 TDs.
"Smith plays like Mendenhall," one scout said. "He's got the quick feet and will bounce it outside."
Jones (5-11 1/2, 205), the best kickoff returner in the draft, rushed for 1,117 yards (9.1) as McFadden's backup.
"He's maybe a step faster than McFadden," another scout said. "Not as big. You give him 15 touches a game. With him, Brett Favre would want to play a couple more years."
Rutgers' Ray Rice (5-8 1/2, 200), compared by one scout to Joe Morris, is a powerful little back and also might declare.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Virginia's Chris Long (6-3 1/2, 274), the son of former Raider Howie Long, is the top senior defensive end and a top-10 pick.
"You can tell Howie's been working with him for a long, long time," one scout said. "Great effort guy. Knows how to rush the passer. Very productive. People can compare him to Aaron Kampman."
Pushing Long at the position will be three juniors, all of whom are due out: Ohio State's Vernon Gholston (6-4, 260), Clemson's Phillip Merling (6-5, 295) and Florida's Derrick Harvey (6-4, 260).
"Gholston is a physically gifted athlete who can play with speed or power," one scout said. "Unlike guys from Clemson, Merling's motor goes all day long. Some guys like Harvey more than Jarvis Moss."
Georgia Tech's Michael Johnson (6-6 1/2, 250), who has been compared to Jevon Kearse, Louisiana State's Tyson Jackson (6-4 1/2, 295) and Miami's Calais Campbell (6-7 1/2, 285) are other juniors with first-round ability.
Perhaps the most athletic senior DE is Wake Forest's Jeremy Thompson (6-5, 262), the brother of Orrin Thompson, a tackle on the Packers' practice squad.
The pick of the litter at defensive tackle is LSU's Glenn Dorsey (6-1 1/2, 313), who played on a bad knee almost all season.
"He's a top-five player," one scout said. "He can beat a guy one-on-one. He'll demand a double-team. He's got great effort, team leader."
Other first-round tackles figure to be USC's Sedrick Ellis (6-1, 307), a nose tackle with fine quickness, and North Carolina's Kentwan Balmer (6-5, 295), who made his senior season by far his best.
LINEBACKERS
James Laurinaitis (6-2 1/2, 245), the successor to A.J. Hawk at Ohio State, probably will declare and be a top-15 pick.
"He's not as natural as Hawk," one scout said. "If you run the ball between the tackles, he's tough. If you stretch it to the sidelines, he's not as effective as Hawk was."
A group of four other inside players, including USC's Rey Maualuga (6-2 1/2, 255), LSU's Derry Beckwith (6-0 1/2, 235), Oklahoma's Curtis Lofton (6-0, 240) and Tennessee's Jerod Mayo (6-1, 230), all would fall in the first two rounds if they declare.
"(Maualuga) came out and said he wasn't coming out," one scout said. "But I don't know what that's worth. Tough, athletic and fast. First round."
It isn't as good outside, where USC's Keith Rivers (6-3, 237) and Penn State's Dan Connor (6-3, 230) are the top seniors. The top juniors, Penn State's Sean Lee (6-2, 235) and USC's Brian Cushing (6-3 1/2, 235), probably will be back in school.
"Rivers is hit or miss," one scout said. "He will play an athletic game but he will get out of position. Connor is a solid player. Dan easily could be a middle backer."
SECONDARY
"I don't think you'll have a top-five corner like you see in a lot of drafts," one scout said. "Last year was a pretty good group of safeties. This year is not going to be that group."
At cornerback, the probable first-round seniors would be South Florida's Mike Jenkins (5-10 1/2, 200) and Troy's Leodis McKelvin (5-10 1/2, 186).
"Jenkins has big-time speed and big-time quickness," one scout said. "All he plays is press man. McKelvin has a lot of production and is one of the best punt returners in the draft."
If they declare, four juniors would have a shot at the first round: Ohio State's Malcolm Jenkins (6-0 1/2, 200), Oklahoma's Reggie Smith (6-0 1/2, 200), Wisconsin's Jack Ikegwuono (5-11 1/2, 200) and Kansas' Aqib Talib (6-1 1/2, 205).
"Ikegwuono will be right there in the mix," one scout said. "He can man up and run with receivers, and he's got height, weight, speed. He'll probably end up being in the second round."
Said another scout: "He should stay. He's not very good."
Added a third: "We've got to do some research on his character. He's fast and has all the skills. The first round would depend on his workout."
Kenny Phillips (6-1, 200), a junior from Miami, declared Friday and could be the best of a weak corps of safeties. Malcolm Jenkins, Reggie Smith and Talib all might project to safety.
"Phillips hasn't had a great year but nobody did there," one scout said. "Kind of an elite-type athlete. After that, it's just a bunch of third-, fourth-, fifth-round guys."
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