Wisconsin Primary

[Freak Out]

¡Viva Obama! I like Obama as much as the next guy (his best quality may be that he's not Hillary), but this is getting to be a bit much. In the immortal words of Gertrude Stein, it makes you wonder if there's any there there.
http://www.amigosdeobama.com/

That's a top notch band Gringo! Viva Obama!

[Harlan Huckleby]

When people argue whether a candidate has experience, they usually pull-out a resume and count years in this or that role. But this is just a rough indication. The important thing is how experience has changed and matured a person. Experience should show-through in the way that a person explains their positions. It's not a question of knowing a lot of facts, it's knowing which facts matter most and why. That comes from experience.

When you hear a speech or argument from top-shelf Senators like Richard Lugar or Joe Biden, their thoughtfulness comes through like a freight train. Whether you agree with them or not, it's obvious that they have achieved some wisdom.

I formed my opinion about Barack Obama before the campaign. He's bright & likeable, but that's it. He's an empty suit.

People have compared Obama to Abraham Lincolm, who became president after just one term in Congress. The comparison is absurd. The famous Lincoln-Douglas debates showed that Lincoln brought a mature mind, he was a heavyweight.

Obama's main appeal is his electability. Maybe so.

It bothers me when people say that things will be alright because the President is surrounded by many smart advisors. That's what was said about George Bush in 2000. It's hard to remember and believe now, but Bush was also elected largely for likeability reasons, people said they'd rather have a beer with Bush than Al Gore, he had more charisma.

Presidential elections are not that different from American Idol contests.
Of course the winner of an American Idol contest is likely to be an excellent ambassador for the U.S. overseas, that is a real benefit.

I may be completely wrong about Obama, maybe he will be good. I think McCain is a far better person to handle the job. I really don't know what I will do in the fall, Obama, McCain, not vote for presidential slot. Most likely I will just pull the lever with the picture of the donkey on it.

[Freak Out]

Eeyore.

http://thomas.loc.gov/

[Harlan Huckleby]

Are you suggesting that you can judge a Senator by the number or type of bills they cosponsor? Seems like a quick & easy way for an ambitous politician to build credibility. It counts for something, though, I suppose.

I spoke to a couple people this past week who said they chose between Clinton & Obama completely on the basis of their television commercials. They both voted for Obama, one said he seemed stronger, the other said the story of his mother dying of cancer would make him better with healthcare.

[Freak Out]

Are you suggesting that you can judge a Senator by the number or type of bills they cosponsor? Seems like a quick & easy way for an ambitous politician to build credibility. It counts for something, though, I suppo

I spoke to a couple people this past week who said they chose between Clinton & Obama completely on the basis of their television commercials. They both voted for Obama, one said he seemed stronger, the other said the story of his mother dying of cancer would make him better with healthcare.

The work they did in the Senate does count for something. Should you base your decision just on that? If you want to. The old girl can still pull it off...stranger things have happened before. Any of the three remaining (sorry Huck) candidates will be an improvement over the current office holder.

But that's not saying much.

[Harlan Huckleby]

The work they did in the Senate does count for something.

Sure, but how do you evaluate it? Being a cosponsor of a bill is largely window dressing. I look at votes on big issues. Most importantly (to me) is how they express themselves on committees. But that is hard, not many people are gonna watch CSPAN.

One reason I like experienced people is they get TV time explaining positions on the various news shows. Then you get to know them. Once a campaign gets going, the politicians are too guarded to learn anything. I know this favors the estabilished politicians, but the public knowing a candidate well is a very good thing.

The old girl can still pull it off...stranger things have happened before.

I'm not sure stranger things have happened. Ohio is not that different from Wisconsin. Clinton may win some big states, but expecting several giant landslides is not credible. Obama has a huge and widening edge in advertising dollars. It's all over but the shoutin.

[The Leaper]

I formed my opinion about Barack Obama before the campaign. He's bright & likeable, but that's it. He's an empty suit.

I agree. He will face problems going against McCain...Obama's strength against Hillary among Democrats has been that he is more of a "uniting force" that will work with the Republicans.

Yet in reality, he has no credible evidence that is the case. His record is arguably more liberal than Clinton's...there is no evidence that Obama can reach across the aisle and bring together the blue and red states as he suggests.

Meanwhile, McCain's record is full of accomplishments where he did precisely what Obama claims...reached across the aisle and found compromise.

Obama is a great orator, but he might find it difficult to continue to banter about change and reconciliation when he is up against McCain...and McCain will have the ability to really call out Obama's lack of credibility on the world stage, even more so that Hillary. Barack's anti-war mantra also won't wear nearly as well against a former POW as it does against Clinton, who I think Obama has done very well against in that regard due to Clinton's initial vote of support for action in Iraq.

Obama is surging right now...but has he peaked too early? It is kind of like a sports team who is playing really well just after the All-Star break, but you wonder if they can continue that kind of run all the way through the postseason.

Obama needs to wrap this up before the convention...a convention battle would do quite a bit to damper his momentum.

[The Leaper]

Good article on the question that will face Americans this year in November...from a European viewpoint by Gerard Baker of the London Times.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article3412540.ece

"There is a caste of left-wing Americans who wish essentially and in all honesty that their country was much more like France. They wish it had much higher levels of taxation and government intervention, that it had much higher levels of welfare, that it did not have such a “militaristic” approach to foreign policy. Above all, that its national goals were dictated, not by the dreadful halfwits who inhabit godforsaken places like Kansas and Mississippi, but by the counsels of the United Nations.

Though Mr Obama has done a good job, as all recent serious Democrats have done, of emphasising his belief in American virtues, his record and his programme suggest he is firmly in line with this wing of his party."

"While he speaks of the need for Americans to move beyond partisanship (“We are not blue states or red states, but the United States” is a campaign meme), when you cut through the verbiage there is nothing to suggest he believes anything that is seriously at odds with the far Left of his party. If you think about it for a second, it's not really an accident that he has been endorsed by the likes of Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson."

I have no problem moving back to the center after 8 years of Bush. However, tipping the scales 180 degrees the opposite way IMO isn't going to make things better. In fact, especially in regards to foreign policy, they could make things a lot worse.

What we need is someone who is willing to listen to people and build a consensus on the critical issues facing this country. If you are honest and straightforward about it, the best candidate right now in that regard is John McCain...who certainly has a proven willingness to follow his own ideals and beliefs rather than a party line.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I think Obama will beat McCain in a HUGE landslide. People are really, really fed-up with Republicans, not least of all the Republicans.

I don't expect that Obama's inexperience will matter that much. There is such a fever for change, people will see that McCain is a person with more depth and still vote for Obama. The only wildcard is if there is a big terrorist incident, or some such event.

Some really smart people think that Obama will wilt next fall, they could be right. I'm just saying my gut instinct.

[Harlan Huckleby]

when you cut through the verbiage there is nothing to suggest he believes anything that is seriously at odds with the far Left of his party. If you think about it for a second, it's not really an accident that he has been endorsed by the likes of Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson."

I don't think that angle is going to work for the Republicans. Americans are ready for liberal agenda - wind down Iraq, big change in health care.

Obama is vulnerable more on personal issues, especially his judgement/toughness on national security, if things get more unsettled.

[The Leaper]

I don't think that angle is going to work for the Republicans. Americans are ready for liberal agenda - wind down Iraq, big change in health care.

I don't think most Americans favor a dramatic, immediate pull out in Iraq, as Obama advocates...and as Clinton pointed out last night, Obama's health care platform is creaky.

Americans favor a planned withdrawal from Iraq and a commitment to bipartisan health care debate and compromise on a fair plan of action. Obama's lack of evidence in terms of his ability to reach a consensus among political colleagues in terms of ANY legislation...let alone sweeping legislation such as our health care industry requires...could pose issues for him.

If I had to bet, obviously I'd take Obama over McCain right now. However, I highly doubt this election will be a landslide for Obama. The last 4 elections have all been relatively close...Clinton never won in a landslide, and obviously Bush has squeaked in twice. The country is pretty much split down the middle in terms of those who lean left and right. The difference comes in which side is more energized...and obviously the Dems have that advantage in spades right now.

However, a convention brawl would hurt that a lot IMO...which is why I believe Obama would do the Dems good by wrapping this up in TX and OH.

[Freak Out]

Though Mr Obama has done a good job, as all recent serious Democrats have done, of emphasising his belief in American virtues, his record and his programme suggest he is firmly in line with this wing of his party."

"While he speaks of the need for Americans to move beyond partisanship (“We are not blue states or red states, but the United States” is a campaign meme), when you cut through the verbiage there is nothing to suggest he believes anything that is seriously at odds with the far Left of his party. If you think about it for a second, it's not really an accident that he has been endorsed by the likes of Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson."

More fear mongering but whatever.....that's why we have a Congress and if it does it's job they don't give the President free reign. All this talk about huge tax increases and rampant liberalization is a load of BS. Don't get me wrong....I would love to see a much more liberal approach to things but it's not going to happen.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I don't think most Americans favor a dramatic, immediate pull out in Iraq, as Obama advocates..

The republicans have been making the "precipitous withdrawal" argument for 5 years. For how many years/decades can a withdrawal continue to be precipitous?

It is not going to be easy to draw-down troops now, or 5 years from now.
I suspect Obama will have 50,000 troops in Iraq 3 years from now. Maybe more troops. He is stuck between rock and hard place, as we all are, but he will be more aggressive than McCain in drawing-down.

Obama & Clinton's talk of a quick withdrawal is BS for voters. They also say more quietly that everything is contingent on developments.

Americans favor a planned withdrawal from Iraq and a commitment to bipartisan health care debate and compromise on a fair plan of action.

McCain offers nothing on either of these.

Obama's lack of evidence in terms of his ability to reach a consensus among political colleagues in terms of ANY legislation...let alone sweeping legislation such as our health care industry requires...could pose issues for him.

I think there is a strong consensus developing on healthcare.

In general, I agree. I think the notion that Obama is going to usher-in an era of bipartisian cooperation is far-fetched. I fear he is going to be a failed president like Bush, I don't trust his judgement, even if he starts with a large mandate. I will gin-up a positive attitude and hope for best once he gets in office, I always do that for any president.

[Freak Out]

Is Nader going to announce another run this weekend? I read that he was going to be on Meet the Press.

[swede]

Is Nader going to announce another run this weekend? I read that he was going to be on Meet the Press.

Nader is way right of Obama. There'll be no need for a liberal independent this year.