Wisconsin Primary

[SkinBasket]

I think the only thing that can save her now is dirt on Obama.

If you mean killing him and burying him, you may be right. Even some unsavory history probably isn't enough to get the job done at this point.

[Patler]

The only group Hillary has left is white women. Last night in Virginia, 57% of the voters in the Dem primary were women, and Hillary still got clobbered.

Clinton's hold on a large portion of the white-female voting group has always been a bit tenuous, almost as if many were looking for a reason not to vote for her. Some polls indicate a strong, consistent shift toward Obama among white females. Your stats from Virginia give credence to that, although I'm not sure that Virgina was ever considered a strongly pro-Clinton area.

I think Clinton is starting to panic, not emotionally, but politically. She shelved Bill and replaced her campaign manager. Clearly she felt that what she was doing was failing, and significant changes were needed. That usually is not good for any campaign in midstream.

[Harlan Huckleby]

dp

[Harlan Huckleby]

I think Clinton is starting to panic, not emotionally, but politically. She shelved Bill and replaced her campaign manager.

shelving Bill is not a panic move. the shift in leadership is no giant deal either, she had two senior campaign leaders that were in conflict.

I don't think the problem is strategy, they are simply outresourced by the Obama people. Obama has more volunteers and paid staff. That is a reflection of his popularity, but also the passion of his true beleivers.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Obama is making inroads in every demographis. The only group Hillary has left is white women.

I think you are overreacting to the Potomoc primaries, a region where Obama is wildly popular.

I wouldn't bury the old girl yet. If she gets a large margin in the big three states, she can pull ahead. Who knows what kind of edge she can get in the Super Delegates? 100? 200? A lot of party regulars think Hillary would make a more effective president than Barack. And lastly, don't be shocked if there is a vote in Florida & Michigan, two states where she is likely to pick up net delegates. They really need to deal with that situation.
(And I've heard that much of the committee leadership in the Democratic Party,like the credentials committee, consists of former Clinton Administration people. Sweet. )

I still give Clinton a 30% chance of getting the nomination.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Clinton will still win Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania. But I doubt she'll get the margins she needs, I think all the positive publicity Obama is generating with these February wins will reduce her future margins. But we don't know.

If she wins those three how does she NOT get the nomination, or at least create a brokered convention? Granted, most Dem primaries aren't winner take all, but if she takes those big three what's left at this point for Obama?

Hillary is fucked in texas, Harlan. They split the delegates by county or district or whatever little units they use down there in Texas. The black people are going to vote Obama. The black people live in the heavily populated areas with more delegates. Hillary may win the majority of the land mass, but ol' Barak's taking home more Texas delegates than she is. In fact, it may be a southern slaughter for Hillary's white House dreams.

ever hear of hispanics? they are sort of like negroes, but talk faster.

[Patler]

I think Clinton is starting to panic, not emotionally, but politically. She shelved Bill and replaced her campaign manager.

shelving Bill is not a panic move. the shift in leadership is no giant deal either, she had two senior campaign leaders that were in conflict.

I don't think the problem is strategy, they are simply outresourced by the Obama people. Obama has more volunteers and paid staff. That is a reflection of his popularity, but also the passion of his true beleivers.

Silencing her husband, a former President, as a key campaigner is a fairly drastic step.

Every candidate always has several senior advisers, and smart candidates have advisers of differing viewpoints between which they pick and choose in outlining strategy. However, replacing the one "in charge" is a definite significant event, especially if, as you say, the two were in conflict.

So why does Clinton lag Obama in paid staff? For a long time she outpaced him in contributions, and has raised over $100 million. Paid staff should be no problem.

Volunteer staff is another issue. If a major candidate can't drum up volunteer support, it is a definite indication of a failing campaign.

[MJZiggy]

Clinton will still win Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania. But I doubt she'll get the margins she needs, I think all the positive publicity Obama is generating with these February wins will reduce her future margins. But we don't know.

If she wins those three how does she NOT get the nomination, or at least create a brokered convention? Granted, most Dem primaries aren't winner take all, but if she takes those big three what's left at this point for Obama?

Hillary is fucked in texas, Harlan. They split the delegates by county or district or whatever little units they use down there in Texas. The black people are going to vote Obama. The black people live in the heavily populated areas with more delegates. Hillary may win the majority of the land mass, but ol' Barak's taking home more Texas delegates than she is. In fact, it may be a southern slaughter for Hillary's white House dreams.

ever hear of hispanics? they are sort of like negroes, but talk faster.

She pissed off the hispanics when she switched campaign managers.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Silencing her husband, a former President, as a key campaigner is a fairly drastic step.

he's travelling and speaking as much as ever, he just plays nice.

Every candidate always has several senior advisers, and smart candidates have advisers of differing viewpoints between which they pick and choose in outlining strategy. However, replacing the one "in charge" is a definite significant event, especially if, as you say, the two were in conflict.

I don't think the replaced woman (hispanic lady) was senior to the "new" gal. The new gal has been Hillary's chief of staff since Arkansas days. The hispanic woman and african american woman were in a co-leadership role.

So why does Clinton lag Obama in paid staff? For a long time she outpaced him in contributions, and has raised over $100 million. Paid staff should be no problem.

Clinton spent like the election would be won Feb 5. I read this is the reason that the Hispanic woman was demoted, she had her finger more on the finances. Hillary found out that the finances were shaky after New Hampshire. Also, Obama has been raising more money in 2008.

Volunteer staff is another issue. If a major candidate can't drum up volunteer support, it is a definite indication of a failing campaign.

Its not a case that Clinton is doing a bad job with volunteers or enthusiasm. It's more that the Obama Machine is a real phenomena that is hard for mere mortals to match.

[Patler]

Clinton spent like the election would be won Feb 5. I read this is the reason that the Hispanic woman was demoted, she had her finger more on the finances. Hillary found out that the finances were shaky after New Hampshire. Also, Obama has been raising more money in 2008.

Interesting on the Clinton finances. I had not heard that slant on the "demotion".

The amount of money pouring in to both campaigns, and particularly to Obama recently, is really quite staggering.

[MJZiggy]

They should pour some into my campaign. I won't even make promises I can't keep. I promise.

[swede]

Tyrone will vouch for you there, Zig.

[Harlan Huckleby]

She pissed off the hispanics when she switched campaign managers.

nah, that was just a little dust-up. I found it kind of funny that an African-American woman wins a power struggle with an Hispanic woman, and questions of ethnic descrimination are in the air.

IT reminded me of that Monty Python movie "Life of Brian" where the Judean People's Revolutionary Front are in a deadly power struggle with the People's Revolutionary Front of Judea.

[SkinBasket]

Clinton will still win Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania. But I doubt she'll get the margins she needs, I think all the positive publicity Obama is generating with these February wins will reduce her future margins. But we don't know.

If she wins those three how does she NOT get the nomination, or at least create a brokered convention? Granted, most Dem primaries aren't winner take all, but if she takes those big three what's left at this point for Obama?

Hillary is fucked in texas, Harlan. They split the delegates by county or district or whatever little units they use down there in Texas. The black people are going to vote Obama. The black people live in the heavily populated areas with more delegates. Hillary may win the majority of the land mass, but ol' Barak's taking home more Texas delegates than she is. In fact, it may be a southern slaughter for Hillary's white House dreams.

ever hear of hispanics? they are sort of like negroes, but talk faster.

And they live in the rural areas moreso than blacks. She can get a bazillion rural hispanic votes and it won't get her shit in delegates. That and Hispanics don't like Hillary nearly as much as she likes to think.


AHOY! It be the SS Hillary!

[Harlan Huckleby]

That and Hispanics don't like Hillary nearly as much as she likes to think.

They vote for her about 70%. That's affectionate enough.