Oil price drop....largest in 17 years

[packinpatland]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/15/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008071516

So..................when do we see the drop at the pumps???????????

[Freak Out]

It will take some time for us to see them in the Anchorage area...longer in Rural AK but it will depend on some regional issues. Unless of course the price gets jacked up again tomorrow.

Everything that was said is old news.....the weak dollar, inflation, lower demand.

[Bossman641]

I laugh everytime I see a comment from an expert energy analyst. I'm pretty sure I could do that job. Every comment is "Oil is more expensive due to weaker dollar, growing demand, whatever international crisis is going on." Or conversely when the price falls "The price has fallen due to lower demand due to high prices." Or how about when they make their "forecasts" and then change them every month.

[retailguy]

This is the important point in the article.... if you understand math.

But in 1991, oil was trading at just $32 a barrel, so the more than $10 slide in dollar terms represented a record 33% drop. Oil fell 4.4% Tuesday, which does not even crack the top 100 price declines in percentage terms.

so, if unleaded is 4.50 a gal and prices fall 4.4%, then they'll go down over the next few days by about .19 cents....

the demand part is very true. This is a supply and demand issue. But I think Freak is right when he talks about the value of the dollar.

Many things affect the crude price, but I think this is the big one. As the dollar slides, crude will go higher, because when you devalue your currency real goods are worth more. Remember the stories of Russians and Mexicans taking a wheelbarrow load of cash for a loaf of bread?

But, truthfully, how do you prop up the dollar? You increase the cost of borrowing - raise interest rates. You constrict the supply of cash, to make it worth more. .. And what will that do to the economy? Or, better phrased, the "perception" of the economy?

Yeah. Therein lies a problem, don't you think?

[texaspackerbacker]

There was another significant drop, I think even bigger than this one, a month or two ago, and then the prices came roaring back even quicker and even more than they had dropped. So it's too early to get our hopes up.

What brought this drop on? Very likely, it was Bush's announcement of drilling on the outer continental shelf, as well as his prodding Congress to get off its ass and allow drilling in ANWAR.

[oregonpackfan]

What brought this drop on? Very likely, it was Bush's announcement of drilling on the outer continental shelf, as well as his prodding Congress to get off its ass and allow drilling in ANWAR.[/quote]

Bush's advocacy of offshore drilling as well as ANWAR most likely had little to do with the price drop. If the US started drilling both offshore and ANWAR tomorrow, the oil, refined as gasoline, would not reach American gas pumps for at least 10 years.

[retailguy]

What brought this drop on? Very likely, it was Bush's announcement of drilling on the outer continental shelf, as well as his prodding Congress to get off its ass and allow drilling in ANWAR.

Bush's advocacy of offshore drilling as well as ANWAR most likely had little to do with the price drop. If the US started drilling both offshore and ANWAR tomorrow, the oil, refined as gasoline, would not reach American gas pumps for at least 10 years.

This isn't true OPF, most likely drilling could be flowing oil off the continental shelf in a little less than 3 years.

Tex, more than likely the announcement didn't cause prices to drop because it was largely symbolic as there is still a law that prevents drilling. That's gotta go first.

it was probably a number of things. If it lasts for more than a week, then we should speculate about reasons. More than likely it'll rebound over the next few days.

Nothing I see would dictate a prolonged drop right now, and I have a lot of data available to look at, and am paid to know it and understand it. Nobody knows for sure, but I'm fairly confident.

[oregonpackfan]

What brought this drop on? Very likely, it was Bush's announcement of drilling on the outer continental shelf, as well as his prodding Congress to get off its ass and allow drilling in ANWAR.

Bush's advocacy of offshore drilling as well as ANWAR most likely had little to do with the price drop. If the US started drilling both offshore and ANWAR tomorrow, the oil, refined as gasoline, would not reach American gas pumps for at least 10 years.

This isn't true OPF, most likely drilling could be flowing oil off the continental shelf in a little less than 3 years.

I have read several credible reports that it would take at least 10 years for the setup, drilling, discovery, transportation of the crude to the refineries, the processing, and the transportation to the gas stations.

[retailguy]

What brought this drop on? Very likely, it was Bush's announcement of drilling on the outer continental shelf, as well as his prodding Congress to get off its ass and allow drilling in ANWAR.

Bush's advocacy of offshore drilling as well as ANWAR most likely had little to do with the price drop. If the US started drilling both offshore and ANWAR tomorrow, the oil, refined as gasoline, would not reach American gas pumps for at least 10 years.

This isn't true OPF, most likely drilling could be flowing oil off the continental shelf in a little less than 3 years.

I have read several credible reports that it would take at least 10 years for the setup, drilling, discovery, transportation of the crude to the refineries, the processing, and the transportation to the gas stations.

It would depend on who you find "credible". You can also find plenty of other reports that claim much less time. You need to pick who you believe, and I know who I believe and 10 years is ridiculous.

I doubt seriously it would take even 10 years to drill in ANWR and that's a logistical nightmare compared to the continental shelf.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I doubt seriously it would take even 10 years to drill in ANWR and that's a logistical nightmare compared to the continental shelf.

The critical question is not when it would affect prices. The question is will it affect prices, and the answer is no.

To affect the world wide oil maket, they would have to suck out enough crude to make a significant impact on global supply. Not going to happen.

This not a strong argument against drilling in Anwar. The point is that gas prices should not be part of the decision.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

I doubt seriously it would take even 10 years to drill in ANWR and that's a logistical nightmare compared to the continental shelf.

The critical question is not when it would affect prices. The question is will it affect prices, and the answer is no.

To affect the world wide oil maket, they would have to suck out enough crude to make a significant impact on global supply. Not going to happen.

This not a strong argument against drilling in Anwar. The point is that gas prices should not be part of the decision.

Newt says it will.

Bush says it won't.

Oh, lord..which conservative am i suppose to believe in.

[retailguy]

I doubt seriously it would take even 10 years to drill in ANWR and that's a logistical nightmare compared to the continental shelf.

The critical question is not when it would affect prices. The question is will it affect prices, and the answer is no.

To affect the world wide oil maket, they would have to suck out enough crude to make a significant impact on global supply. Not going to happen.

This not a strong argument against drilling in Anwar. The point is that gas prices should not be part of the decision.

Newt says it will.

Bush says it won't.

Oh, lord..which conservative am i suppose to believe in.

How about me?


The folks over at anwr.org seem to think they could be producing in 5 years... Maybe you should believe them?

Alternatively you could stick with your buddies at moveon.org who really really want you to ride the bus...

In the end, your choice!

[texaspackerbacker]

What brought this drop on? Very likely, it was Bush's announcement of drilling on the outer continental shelf, as well as his prodding Congress to get off its ass and allow drilling in ANWAR.

Bush's advocacy of offshore drilling as well as ANWAR most likely had little to do with the price drop. If the US started drilling both offshore and ANWAR tomorrow, the oil, refined as gasoline, would not reach American gas pumps for at least 10 years.[/quote]

Still parrotting the party line, huh, Oregon?

No way in hell it would take that long. It just isn't logical. The geological part has been done. They know where to drill. How long do you think it takes to find a pool, and then to start pumping? Days or a few weeks is about right. The only hangup would be liberals dragging their feet.

[bobblehead]

This is the important point in the article.... if you understand math.

But in 1991, oil was trading at just $32 a barrel, so the more than $10 slide in dollar terms represented a record 33% drop. Oil fell 4.4% Tuesday, which does not even crack the top 100 price declines in percentage terms.

so, if unleaded is 4.50 a gal and prices fall 4.4%, then they'll go down over the next few days by about .19 cents....

the demand part is very true. This is a supply and demand issue. But I think Freak is right when he talks about the value of the dollar.

Many things affect the crude price, but I think this is the big one. As the dollar slides, crude will go higher, because when you devalue your currency real goods are worth more. Remember the stories of Russians and Mexicans taking a wheelbarrow load of cash for a loaf of bread?

But, truthfully, how do you prop up the dollar? You increase the cost of borrowing - raise interest rates. You constrict the supply of cash, to make it worth more. .. And what will that do to the economy? Or, better phrased, the "perception" of the economy?

Yeah. Therein lies a problem, don't you think?

I always say beware of anyone who switches from hard numbers to percentages midpoint. and remember, half of all schools are below average...that disgusts me.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

I doubt seriously it would take even 10 years to drill in ANWR and that's a logistical nightmare compared to the continental shelf.

The critical question is not when it would affect prices. The question is will it affect prices, and the answer is no.

To affect the world wide oil maket, they would have to suck out enough crude to make a significant impact on global supply. Not going to happen.

This not a strong argument against drilling in Anwar. The point is that gas prices should not be part of the decision.

Newt says it will.

Bush says it won't.

Oh, lord..which conservative am i suppose to believe in.

How about me?


The folks over at anwr.org seem to think they could be producing in 5 years... Maybe you should believe them?

Alternatively you could stick with your buddies at moveon.org who really really want you to ride the bus...

In the end, your choice!

YOu missed the point...we are talking gas prices..not production.

BTW, i have never even been to moveon. But, as opposed to you and the rest of the conservs...i watch Fox....i highly doubt you go to moveon.

That is how i can tell you o'reilly thinks oil companies are making too much, coulter was "onboard" with clinton, etc.

I watch fox all the time. It gives me hope...with all those dopes (o'reilly, coulter)it makes me feel confident that change is coming.