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Ike and Crying Wolf

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  • Ike and Crying Wolf

    Gustav is gone with minimal harm done; Hanna is likely going to Georgia or Carolina and not doing an awful lot of human damage; But Ike is on the way, and Josephine is forming farther east. .

    They say a week from now, Ike will be in the Bahamas, a lot like Hanna. It may follow the same track up the east coast, probably not doing much harm. It could, however, not take the right turn, continue past the Florida Keys, out into the Gulf. Where from there? Anybody's guess, but New Orleans sits there as a nice fat target AGAIN.

    Yesterday, they interviewed Chertoff and a few others, bragging up the fact that they mandatorily evacuated nearly 2 million people! The question was asked, is mandatory evacuation now going to be the policy of choice for Gulf Coast hurricanes? Chertoff and others said yes.

    Well, if Ike decides to go west instead of north, and New Orleans is threatened again, the timing will be just about when these nearly 2 million evacuees get settled back in at home.

    This begs several questions--the least of which, maybe, is: who's gonna pay for all that evacuating and moving back? The more pertinent question, though, is: how many of these overly promoted false alarm hurricanes have to come and go before people get fed up with the evacuating and just ignore the orders? And then, like the story of the boy who cried wolf, what if the real thing comes along?

    Senator David Vitter was interview, and he told about when he was a kid and Hurricane Betsy came through--a Category 4 storm that went right up the Mississippi River--worse in a lot of ways than Katrina, nobody even thought about evacuating.

    I don't know what the solution is, but if I lived there, I know I'd be getting pretty pissed off about the damned government telling me what to do and not do. There is an element of politics here--the role of government, etc., but both parties seem equally gung ho about inserting themselves into people's lives in a nice do gooder way.

    What do ya'all think should be the policy of dealing with hurricane threats?
    What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?

  • #2
    I doesn't seem sustainable to evacuate all the time. I think for N.O., they have to re-think that city and they have to return to a natural delta, as much as possible. It is my understanding that the normal delta is what provided so much of a natural barrier to the effect of hurricanes. What do people in FL, MS, AL, TX do all the time? Why can't LA and N.O. follow their lead?
    "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

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    • #3
      The other option is to Nuke the hurricanes before they become a threat. I say we should detonate a nuke in the eye of Ike right now. problem solved. If there's extra radiation in the atmosphere it just means more mutations and faster evolution to a 'better' species. Win win.
      "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

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      • #4
        First of all, Florida usually doesnt get hurricanes, we just get hype. Andrew was the last really bad one in 92, charlie, a few years back did some damage to tampa. I wouldnt mind if a few hurricanes were predicted to hit, because that means no school.

        But on the matter, hurricanes can cause massive damage, that was the right move evacuating NO because Gustavo was a category 4 at one point, in the gulf. The results would have been much more different if it had been that and hit.
        I think that if its below a 2, of course it shouldnt be mandatory. But as you can see with Katrina, if its a 3-5 its time to evacuate. Far to many people died in katrina just because they were stubborn and tried to ride the 'cane out

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        • #5
          Originally posted by mraynrand
          The other option is to Nuke the hurricanes before they become a threat. I say we should detonate a nuke in the eye of Ike right now. problem solved. If there's extra radiation in the atmosphere it just means more mutations and faster evolution to a 'better' species. Win win.
          A small 50s/60s Sci-fi part of me wants to see this happen. Has anyone actually said this would be a good way to control hurricanes? Wouldn't surprise me....there was a guy that wanted to "build" harbors here in Alaska with nukes. Wacko's..
          C.H.U.D.

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          • #6
            I realize you're just joking about the nukes, but aside from that and the obvious negative consequences, I really doubt a nuke would even make a dent in a hurricane. There must be thousands, maybe millions of times more kinetic energy produced in a hurricane than in a nuclear bomb. We would merely get a lesson in how insignificant man and manmade crap is compared to nature.

            What I was really hoping for was some opinions about what the government policy should be--forcing people to evacuate on the mere threat, making it optional,and then bailing out victims who chose to stay, or making it optional, but those staying live or die by their decision. This kinda gets to the heart of a lot of pro and anti nanny-state discussions or compromises between the two.

            Is there an "American Way" here, or not so much?
            What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?

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            • #7
              Originally posted by texaspackerbacker
              I realize you're just joking about the nukes, but aside from that and the obvious negative consequences...
              TPB--WTF? Negative consequences?

              We're CONSERVATIVES, dammit. When it comes to nukes the only possible negative consequences arise when we refuse, as a nation, to consider their use.

              Report to the nearest VFW for reprogramming, buddy.
              [QUOTE=George Cumby] ...every draft (Ted) would pick a solid, dependable, smart, athletically limited linebacker...the guy who isn't doing drugs, going to strip bars, knocking around his girlfriend or making any plays of game changing significance.

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              • #8
                I'm reminded of Harry Truman, who was an old codger, long-time resident living at his lodge on Spirit Lake near Mt. St. Helens in 1980. He refused to leave. On May 18, 1980 he was buried under about half a mountain of molten rock. Should the government have rounded him up on a truck? in contrast, the governrment forced a huge number of residents to leave and allowed a bunch to go back hope to pick things up on the 16th. I guess another trip back was scheduled for the 18th, but they didn't go. Probably the best thing the government can do it inform people and offer a way to evacuate if people don't have the means. And save their sorry asses after the fact, from rooftops, as they did after Katrina, if necessary. Forced evacuations go too far.
                "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

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                • #9
                  Having (like CW and Ballhawk) lived in Florida for a number of years, there is a policy that they could undertake were they actually to think this shit through rather than pulling answers out of their asses to try to improve the public perception of their wonderful planning skills.

                  With hurricanes, you have warning. You also know which side of the storm is going to be more violent. Correct me if I'm wrong, guys (and I KNOW you will) but IIRC it's the behind the eye and to the left looking at the radar. It's the part that feeds off of the eye. The feeder bands don't get a whole lot more than nasty thunderstorms.

                  They can also predict the track and strength with relative accuracy.

                  With that information in hand, you take the expected track, look at the area that the strongest storm is likely to hit and if the storm goes above a category 3 where moderate damage is expected, then you evacuate a city like New Orleans, most of which is under sea level and has no business being populated in the first place (Yes, Ayn, the delta was a natural barrier to hurricanes until the idiot developers thought that a neighborhood would look good there). Where was I? Oh. Right. While there are 3 hurricanes churning over water out there, remember that hurricane seasons usually have an average of 14 named storms, though one year we did run out of names, but the storms make landfall all over the place and even if a few of them get into the gulf, there's no saying that they will all hit NO. They hit the Yucatan, Texas and sometimes swing back and hit Florida (though not all that often).

                  When they do evacuate NO, they have to remember to remind the boneheads who decide to stay behind that they need to have not only adequate food and water but they have to have at least a week or two supply of any medication that might be necessary for things like being alive. Many people didn't think of this minor detail during Katrina and as a result ran into the minor problem of dying of whatever disease they were treating.

                  They also need to just admit to themselves that people will be stupid, so they need to have people on call in case the stupid are numerous.

                  I hope that answers your question.
                  "Greatness is not an act... but a habit.Greatness is not an act... but a habit." -Greg Jennings

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Charles Woodson
                    First of all, Florida usually doesnt get hurricanes, we just get hype. Andrew was the last really bad one in 92, charlie, a few years back did some damage to tampa.
                    Um, what? We've had 5 major hurricanes since 2004, two of those (Wilma and Charlie) being in the top 5 costliest all-time. Charlie was in my area and it destroyed Port Charlotte. Charlie was supposed to hit Tampa, but it wobbled and hit around Port Charlotte causing a lot of damage, not to mention the damage it did on Captiva Island and Punta Gorda. Did a fair share of damage in Fort Myers and Naples, too.

                    Wilma did a good amount of damage in Marco and Naples, but then the East Coast saw the effects with a helluva lot of rain and then the gigantic screw-up with getting utilities up and running again.

                    We do get hit by the most hurricanes, that's an undeniable fact. Now, a lot of them get way overhyped. Fay was supposed to strengthen, but it could never get organized once it got over Cuba, the same thing happened to Ernesto. The good thing, though, is that we're use to dealing with hurricanes and our governors have been great dealing with crisis. Both Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist (both Republicans) have handled the events of Charley and Wilma, respectively, as well as possible. Governors in the past *cough* Blanco *cough* and future could learn from how Florida has handled these things.
                    "I've got one word for you- Dallas, Texas, Super Bowl"- Jermichael Finley

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                    • #11
                      Tyrone remembers not having power for a week due to a hurricane that didn't hit florida. PTL!!

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BallHawk
                        Um, what? We've had 5 major hurricanes since 2004, two of those (Wilma and Charlie) being in the top 5 costliest all-time. Charlie was in my area and it destroyed Port Charlotte. Charlie was supposed to hit Tampa, but it wobbled and hit around Port Charlotte causing a lot of damage, not to mention the damage it did on Captiva Island and Punta Gorda. Did a fair share of damage in Fort Myers and Naples, too.
                        That’s what I thought too. I was at the PGA at Whistling Straits in 2004 (Charley) and that was the subplot of the week……keeping an eye on Orlando as that was/is home to many of the golfers.
                        After lunch the players lounged about the hotel patio watching the surf fling white plumes high against the darkening sky. Clouds were piling up in the west… Vince Lombardi frowned.

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                        • #13
                          Maybe they could create a Crayola Color Chart for Hurricane threat levels? My guess is that we would be elevated right about now.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BallHawk
                            Originally posted by Charles Woodson
                            First of all, Florida usually doesnt get hurricanes, we just get hype. Andrew was the last really bad one in 92, charlie, a few years back did some damage to tampa.
                            Um, what? We've had 5 major hurricanes since 2004, two of those (Wilma and Charlie) being in the top 5 costliest all-time. Charlie was in my area and it destroyed Port Charlotte. Charlie was supposed to hit Tampa, but it wobbled and hit around Port Charlotte causing a lot of damage, not to mention the damage it did on Captiva Island and Punta Gorda. Did a fair share of damage in Fort Myers and Naples, too.
                            It's weird, I lived in Florida until I was 14, never once got hit by a hurricane. Got some wind and rain out of one of them, but that's about it. However, with the ocean temp rising, so are the hurricanes.

                            I believe it was Charlie that even caused alot of damage in the Orlando area where my sister lived. I think that was the first time a damaging hurricane hit central FL since David in '79.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by GBRulz
                              It's weird, I lived in Florida until I was 14, never once got hit by a hurricane. Got some wind and rain out of one of them, but that's about it. However, with the ocean temp rising, so are the hurricanes.

                              I believe it was Charlie that even caused alot of damage in the Orlando area where my sister lived. I think that was the first time a damaging hurricane hit central FL since David in '79.
                              It really doesn't have much to do with ocean temperatures rising. Higher ocean temps might raise hurricane strength by 5-10% in some cases, but it's not a main factor. It just so happened when you lived in Florida (assuming you lived there from around the 1970s and onward) that the Atlantic was in it's "down time" which lasts for about 20 years. During the time you were there the Atlantic was in a cycle which did not promote hurricane development. From about 1995 onward the Atlantic has been in a cycle which promotes hurricane development. Of course there are other factors that affect hurricanes (El Nino, the Sahara desert, wind shear) but the Atlantic is just in an upswing that'll last until about 2015.
                              "I've got one word for you- Dallas, Texas, Super Bowl"- Jermichael Finley

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