PIMPING STOCKS

[bobblehead]

I'm not. Personally, I think most of the AI stuff is overblown. Probably a good chance to make money short term but I prefer to buy undervalued businesses.

AI is where biotech was 15 years ago. A lot of promise, but still a long way from true planet altering application....which is the reason I stopped by today. Is anyone here working in, or knowledgeable of biotech? Biotech is actually entering an era that people THINK AI is entering right now. In a mere couple years we could see some just dizzying things. As a man who is follicularly challenged I think they are getting close to cloning hair follicles. Imagine the money for the company that pulls that one off.

Imagine a procedure simpler than cataract surgery that could change the color of your eyes if you so desired. Imagine cloning a liver. Technology curves are very flat for a long time before exploding. Think of it this way. When we have 1% of the information figured out and we increase it 15% annually its barely moving (i.e. from 1% to 1.15%). When you get to 60% after decades but you continue to improve at 15% annually that last 40% is just over 3 years away. And that 40% is where the life changing things happen. When we were mapping the genome the predictions were comical. We'll have it done in 50 years. 10 years later, we'll have it done in 11 years, 4 years later, we are 3 years away. The year after that it was done. When it was done everyone got excited "we are 5 years from cloning organs". Of course we weren't even close as it was a new tech based on the finished tech and the slow process started over again....however today we are on the cusp. That last 40% will fly. I'd love to be in some of the cutting edge biotech companies. I'm starting my research, but its not really my area of expertise. I know Bezos and Gates put some money in a startup, but I would need to go through private channels to get into that one. Even then I doubt they let me in.

[bobblehead]

I am looking at selling some square to buy some Tesla, although I do fear some that Elon has pissed off the type of folks that buy electric cars. I do think they’re gonna be the company that makes Rosie jetson a thing a though.

If you buy Tesla for car sales you are making a horrible investment anyway. They sell a fraction of the market at a small profit. It drives (pun intended) the brand, but man his fingers are in every pie. My problem with the stock is that the guy wants to change the world, not maximize my profits in ownership.

[bobblehead]

TSM seems like a no brainer buy in here; anybody else looking at Taiwin Semiconductor ??

Its been a no brainer for awhile in my book, and I own some, but I admit to some serious china fear. Although if china does anything too stupid regarding Taiwan I imagine the entire market will shit the bed hard.

[bobblehead]

and a K-1 received in a retirement account can trigger the need for a separate return to be filed by the retirement account apart from the individual, right?

correct, you never want to own an MLP in a Retirment account. I forget the name of the "special" tax, but I could look it up if I were motivated. I made the mistake in my 20's and it cost me about 1000.

[call_me_ishmael]

Perhaps, but dude, look at some of the earning reports coming out in the last two quarters of these AI driven stocks. They've truly made some F'ck you type profits and growth from 23 to 24. Some insane growth. If we get two more years of growth like this, even if it flattens out, those ignoring AI are missing out on a ton of profits. The earnings growth, in companies like NVDA, AMD, TSM (that I regrettably don't own yet) and many other stocks whose growth has been driving by AI is kinda crazy.

Sure but I don’t personally consider those AI stocks. Those are chip stocks. TSMC is the play here IMO because they will manufacture everyone’s custom silicon. I keep selling my Nvidia. I have culled in by 40% now after a 10x or so gain.

[Bretsky]

I dunno man. I think at some point they're gonna have to prove to be viable businesses and AI is _very_ expensive to run. I do think it'll get a lot cheaper though over time and commoditized. Think of all of the value that Meta has destroyed by committing to open source and open sourcing llama. I see little incentive to pay for OpenAI and their shady business practices for example when you could certainly run your own enterprise llama system for cheaper and more secure.

Perhaps, but dude, look at some of the earning reports coming out in the last two quarters of these AI driven stocks. They've truly made some F'ck you type profits and growth from 23 to 24. Some insane growth. If we get two more years of growth like this, even if it flattens out, those ignoring AI are missing out on a ton of profits. The earnings growth, in companies like NVDA, AMD, TSM (that I regrettably don't own yet) and many other stocks whose growth has been driving by AI is kinda crazy.

[call_me_ishmael]

we have to agree to disagree there well...unless you consider short term the next 5 years )

I dunno man. I think at some point they're gonna have to prove to be viable businesses and AI is _very_ expensive to run. I do think it'll get a lot cheaper though over time and commoditized. Think of all of the value that Meta has destroyed by committing to open source and open sourcing llama. I see little incentive to pay for OpenAI and their shady business practices for example when you could certainly run your own enterprise llama system for cheaper and more secure.

[Bretsky]

I'm not. Personally, I think most of the AI stuff is overblown. Probably a good chance to make money short term but I prefer to buy undervalued businesses.

we have to agree to disagree there well...unless you consider short term the next 5 years )

[call_me_ishmael]

I'm not. Personally, I think most of the AI stuff is overblown. Probably a good chance to make money short term but I prefer to buy undervalued businesses.

[Bretsky]

I am looking at selling some square to buy some Tesla, although I do fear some that Elon has pissed off the type of folks that buy electric cars. I do think they’re gonna be the company that makes Rosie jetson a thing a though.

Also considering SYM (Symbiotic).

Partial, are you heavy into research of AI stocks ? Seems there is ez money to be made there

[call_me_ishmael]

TSM seems like a no brainer buy in here; anybody else looking at Taiwin Semiconductor ??

I am looking at selling some square to buy some Tesla, although I do fear some that Elon has pissed off the type of folks that buy electric cars. I do think they’re gonna be the company that makes Rosie jetson a thing a though.

[Bretsky]

TSM seems like a no brainer buy in here; anybody else looking at Taiwin Semiconductor ??

[Patler]

To make it more complicated some BDCs pay ordinary dividends and others pay qualified dividends. To my knowledge none of the ones worth owning return capital. MLPs "return capital" and book your profits so you pay less until you have recouped 100% of the initial investment. I'm actually not sure which MSDL pays yet because they just went public. OBDC pays qualified which is nice where as ARCC pays non qualified (ordinary) so I keep it in my IRA. MAIN pay ordinary as well, but it has become overpriced (as has OBDC). ARCC and MSDL are very worth buying though.

Edit: Also BDCs don't require anything special, but MLPs mostly (all?) issue a K-1.

and a K-1 received in a retirement account can trigger the need for a separate return to be filed by the retirement account apart from the individual, right?

[bobblehead]

I have never felt confident in my understanding of my own personal tax implications and filing requirements from owning a BDC; e.g. dividends designated as qualified, non-qualified, return of capital, etc.; the pass through of earnings/losses to the owners without tax at the business level and so forth. For that reason, I have avoided owning them.

I really should put forth the effort to resolve my hesitancies. On the other hand, there are lots of things to own that I do understand!

To make it more complicated some BDCs pay ordinary dividends and others pay qualified dividends. To my knowledge none of the ones worth owning return capital. MLPs "return capital" and book your profits so you pay less until you have recouped 100% of the initial investment. I'm actually not sure which MSDL pays yet because they just went public. OBDC pays qualified which is nice where as ARCC pays non qualified (ordinary) so I keep it in my IRA. MAIN pay ordinary as well, but it has become overpriced (as has OBDC). ARCC and MSDL are very worth buying though.

Edit: Also BDCs don't require anything special, but MLPs mostly (all?) issue a K-1.

[Patler]

If anyone is into BDCs morgan stanley went public with MSDL. I subscribe to a guy who was a due diligence officer and a forensic accountant so he can actually understand their docs. He places it at a buy under $24 and a dividend that will be over 9%, but extremely likely to pay a special dividend occasionally as well.

I have never felt confident in my understanding of my own personal tax implications and filing requirements from owning a BDC; e.g. dividends designated as qualified, non-qualified, return of capital, etc.; the pass through of earnings/losses to the owners without tax at the business level and so forth. For that reason, I have avoided owning them.

I really should put forth the effort to resolve my hesitancies. On the other hand, there are lots of things to own that I do understand!