PIMPING STOCKS

[Tony Oday]

We are staying at the Cosmo for the first time. Wife is a Diamond Flyer on Delta so we have some free 1st Class vouchers she said so she gets the flights, I got the suite and have my gambling money Still have around $6k in XRP too and it just hit $3.30

[call_me_ishmael]

You guys own Eli Lily? I'm not sure how it's valued right now but the data for Retatrutide is so compelling I'm convinced everyone will take Tirzepatide and then Retatrutide in a few years, and we'll all be much healthier and happier for it.

I'm sure all the big pharmaceutical cos are working on similar stuff but so far none of the next-gen stuff from NVO is even close to Retatrutide in safety or results.

I legitimately think there is a possibility in 15 years when there is a generic of this that everyone micro-doses it to stay lean and healthy and live longer.

[bobblehead]

You guys own Eli Lily? I'm not sure how it's valued right now but the data for Retatrutide is so compelling I'm convinced everyone will take Tirzepatide and then Retatrutide in a few years, and we'll all be much healthier and happier for it.

I'm sure all the big pharmaceutical cos are working on similar stuff but so far none of the next-gen stuff from NVO is even close to Retatrutide in safety or results.

I legitimately think there is a possibility in 15 years when there is a generic of this that everyone micro-doses it to stay lean and healthy and live longer.

I agree wholeheartedly on your first point. Mountjaro (spelling?) is a game changer for those of us who like to eat too much. Retatrutide looks even better. Where I disagree is that you can guess what things will look like in 15 years. These will be relics and we will have something that changes the game even more. Think of a combo that helps reduce fat but also acts like an anabolic steroid to increase lean mass while rebuilding joints.

As for Eli I can help you out a bit. Its bloated to a 56x P/E which is huge, but the growth supports it. Analysts who are pretty accurate on this stock expect 74, 27, 20% growth the next 3 years which means a 3 year p/e of 25x would be reasonable. Think stock price of somewhere around $850. For my taste betting on growth to get like a 5% annual run rate isn't worth it, but it seems unlikely to lose money on Eli. There are just WAY better places to put your money imo.

[call_me_ishmael]

I agree wholeheartedly on your first point. Mountjaro (spelling?) is a game changer for those of us who like to eat too much. Retatrutide looks even better. Where I disagree is that you can guess what things will look like in 15 years. These will be relics and we will have something that changes the game even more. Think of a combo that helps reduce fat but also acts like an anabolic steroid to increase lean mass while rebuilding joints.

As for Eli I can help you out a bit. Its bloated to a 56x P/E which is huge, but the growth supports it. Analysts who are pretty accurate on this stock expect 74, 27, 20% growth the next 3 years which means a 3 year p/e of 25x would be reasonable. Think stock price of somewhere around $850. For my taste betting on growth to get like a 5% annual run rate isn't worth it, but it seems unlikely to lose money on Eli. There are just WAY better places to put your money imo.

No doubt things will look substantially different in 15 years. The weird thing about highly regulated stuff like pharmaceuticals (I have never invested in one before, so I could be way off) is that you can get a pretty clear long term projection (at least relative to tech) because of clinical trials and the very long runaway of development. I feel very confident that retatrutide will be the market leader once it's available for at least the 6 years following that, for example. We would have data that would suggest otherwise by this point if that wasn't true, and we don't

The open question in like 6 years, I guess, would be will people pony up for retatrutide for big bucks, when they can get generic semaglutide and in 8 years generic tirzepatide? I do wonder if they will find a way to extend the patents since it's such a valuable drug, but on the other hand will the government recognize it's cost savings for medicare that maybe they won't want to play ball? All speculation here.

Either way, the future is going to be pretty awesome.

[Fosco33]

Glad I held Palantir.

Now I’m at a loss of what to do… sell 20% to guarantee a 2x. This stock is so weird. Up 8-9x for me in 18mo.

Fresh works was a stock a lot of whales moved into from Palantir.

[Bretsky]

I bought 1000 shares of Palantir at 13.87 and it’s up to 76… thinking of selling 30% to at least double my initial investment. But others are saying to hold. Also bought Freshworks as lots of big investors have dropped Palantir for them. Idk

You still into Freshworks ? Researching lately and it seems to be at a nice buy in price.

[call_me_ishmael]

I am deeply skeptical of my employe5rs ability to execute and make things happen, but $XYZ is looking really appealing at these prices. 7% free cash flow right now is bananas, and could grow to 15% pretty easily. PYPL is in the same boat. Both will have their day eventually. Now is a great time to buy. I wish I had more money right now.

[Bretsky]

Has the news changed on PYPL at all ?

[call_me_ishmael]

Still a great value. Slam dunk to double in the next 3 years IMO.

[bobblehead]

Still a great value. Slam dunk to double in the next 3 years IMO.

for it to double it needs to trade at about 22x earnings or 15x cash flow. Both pretty big numbers. The profile isn't bad, but double strikes me as unlikely (or at least unjustified). However I could see 50% over the next 3 which is nothing to sneeze at.

For my money, there are a lot better values that pay me to wait.

[bobblehead]

I am only in town briefly, and only have a minute, but let me shed some sanity on Palintir. Mind you I love Peter Thiel and he is a genius, but this stock is so insanely valued there is no planet it should be trading at $68. This doesn't mean it can't go to 100, as the stock market is a popularity contest in the short term, but let me just throw some numbers at you.

There are 20 really sharp analysts covering Palantir. They know the ins and outs of this company really well. They are projecting 25 and 22% growth over the next 2 years. Cool, sounds good. The company currently makes about 38 cents a share. Thats a P/E of about 179X. If the company grows by 100% for the next 3 years it could be worth close to what its trading for today.(.38 to 76 to 1.52 to 3.04 would give it a 22x which would be in line with forward 20% growth). Its not projected to grow anywhere near that and trying to see the stock market future beyond 3 years in the tech world is a fools errand.

I can't tell you when the house of cards falls, or even IF it will. The company could suddenly show you a breakout tech and earnings could go up 1000% in 2028.... But that is exactly what you are betting on if you own this stock and that's a really risky bet. Its just as likely other companies enter the exact area and hamstring Palantir causing it to be a player in a big market. If that happens you are looking at a company with great leadership that probably makes you about 1% for the next 5 years before stabilizing into a decent investment. I'd rather own something like Amgen that has done it for decades, has projected 5% average growth for the next 3 years with a 3.6% dividend trading at 13.5X (should be about 15X). If it reverts to the mean (which it always has historically) I am going to make almost 12% compounding for the next 3 years and its really predictable.

Chasing Palantir may work out but it comes with a LOT of risk and reasons to doubt it. Buying Amgen is almost a lock to get you 10% plus for a long time.

Since J9th: Palantir 67 to 84 (now at 195x) Amgen 262 to 324 (now at 16.25x) Palantir 25% Amgen 24%. One is irrational exuberance, the other was justified by fundamentals. Palantir will come down to earth barring something unforeseen. Amgen will trudge along barring something unforeseen. Speculating vs. investing.

[bobblehead]

My faves have actually popped lately, but still have some room to run. I also don't "gamble" with much money at all. Talking like .5% of my portfolio. That being said, I have mentioned that biotech and biopharma are the real breakthrough techs on the horizon. AI is 20 years from doing the things investors are dreaming about today. When we cracked the genome investors had the same dreams, but comp speed wasn't up to the task. Well, in 25 years computers aren't even recognizable to those of 1998. Running a gene model that took 5000 days then takes 5 days now. So what does that mean? Some companies could have some stupid breakthroughs in the next several years.

I think I mentioned RPRX here before. They buy drug patents (some already on the market, some as early as stage 2 trials). This is a brilliant model and the stock was trading at 6.3x just yesterday (today naturally as I type this it announced some corporate moves and popped 12%). This is a no brainer 15x stock imo so you should have a stranglehold on 10% with very possible double or more in the next few years.

NRXP is a true gamble. I bought it at $1.50 with about .2% of my net worth. Thats how risky it is, but in just over a month its up to $4.80. Too late?? Depends on the time line. I expect $15 within a couple years if they move forward on the partnerships they are building with some bigger companies. Sometimes even though a stocks technicals are beyond my knowledge base (they are working on some neurotherapies) I can look at the leadership and how savvy they are at building partnerships. These guys are good. If they deliver on PTSD therapies a 400% return is almost a lock. But remember, if they fail zero is also possible.

ARDX is a stock I'm not in yet, and might still buy. Going for just over $5 a share and showing no profit, analysts (who are not bad for a stock like this) project near a $1 profit per share within 3 years (triggered by 400% growth in 2026). Stock has been around for a long time and was $25 in 2014 (which is where a lot of AI stocks are now and which is what I was saying about biotech pricing in 20 year promises back in 2000). I haven't done enough research yet, but they work on affecting how we absorb nutrients (yes, the bad ones especially) within our digestive tract. If you think the semiglutides are big, wait until a company can simply stop you from absorbing sodium or cholesterol. Again, I have no skin in this game yet and may not ever.

I'm generally a little early on things, and hedgefunds aren't in biotech right now, but that doesn't mean they won't be, and if/when big money piles into these stocks instead of reaching "fair" valuations of 15-25x the hype could drive them to stupid values like 50x. Just think if you buy a stock with 400% return to fair value and it then goes another 300% from that point. Problem is I'll start bleeding as they reach fair value and never actually get the 12 bagger. Its just my nature.

RPRX was the only non total speculation stock here. The others were penny stocks. For reference on why I don't speculate much RPRX went 29 to 33 since J10th.

NRXP went 4.85 to 2.17. ARDX went 5.07 to 5.30.

Slow and steady on established companies that are undervalued and pay a dividend while you wait has worked for 100 years. Gambling wildly on speculative valuations works in bursts but when it fails....ooof. I lived through the dot com bubble.

[call_me_ishmael]

for it to double it needs to trade at about 22x earnings or 15x cash flow. Both pretty big numbers. The profile isn't bad, but double strikes me as unlikely (or at least unjustified). However I could see 50% over the next 3 which is nothing to sneeze at.

For my money, there are a lot better values that pay me to wait.

They already have 20B earmarked for buybacks at a 70B market cap. They'll do another 20 over the next two years most likely based on free cash flow. I suspect growth will resume again. I think it will double. It will take some time during this market correction but now is the time to buy IMO. Lots of great deals.

[wootah]

Ouch. I see no coming back from this, so get out while you can.

[bobblehead]

Woot, your politics are carrying over....unless you want to make a similar statement about Palantirs over valuation or any of a number of other stocks. Now, myself....I've been saying Tesla is overvalued for years. I pointed out that they had no possible path to justify a price of $250 back in 2020ish. Based on fundamentals it should be a $100 stock right now, but leftist told me I was stupid back then cuz elon would change the world. Now it seems you have a different vision of the company that hasn't changed one bit since then.

Let me help you. Palantir is currently valued at about 190 P/E with barely better growth than Tesla. It should be about a $25 stock. Do you agree with me??