PIMPING STOCKS

[call_me_ishmael]

How are you all thinking about AI and the impact on jobs? Man, IDK what to think. I think it's very clear that most companies are overstaffed and AI makes that more clear. It seems like most digital work can be done very cheaply.

If companies reduce headcount substantially, there will be higher margins + lots of people looking for an opportunity. That means that more competition will be created which means more jobs.

I am somewhat convinced that a given market cap size has a relatively fixed number of employees to the total addressable make. There's no world where some company making 50% margin won't get that eaten away by competitors over time. You would need an incredibly rare product like the iPhone.

I have a back-up plan for when software jobs get eaten. But it would be nice to not have to do that in the next 5 years or so.

[bobblehead]

Ish, the term K shaped economy is trending but I was on this awhile back. I said from late 2022 we are in a recession, but AI spending and government debt spending make it look like we aren't (there is growth in GDP but inflation and the bottom 70% of the economy are in a big time recession. If not for people feeling good about the inflated value of their house (which means nothing, we all need a place to live) sentiment would have been in the basement. Furthermore an inflated housing market leaves those who rent in an even bigger recession.

So what does this mean? Free market economics is always the answer, but oftentimes the short term pain can't be avoided. Any attempt to curtail the short term pain usually comes at the expense of long term gain. Mad, this is economics not politics just for the record, but if you disagree delete my post and tell me.

There is going to be some tough times for those who work in areas that AI disrupts the most and for them it sucks. However stock market gains and efficiency gains will help the "haves" a bunch. I don't have answers except that if you think you are in such a job then start having a plan B. The best news is that AI disruptions will affect the lowest paying jobs first and work its way up. Just the nature of what AI can accomplish right now vs. 5 years out. The easiest job to replace for a person is the crap job they want to replace anyway. Also the flip side is that some businesses won't invest to replace those jobs as its not worth it. Think of it this way. The first places to invest in "self checkout" were the grocery stores with unionized checkout people. Why? Because they were over paying for a menial job and it was worth the investment. Walmart was one of the last to implement this tech because they paid those jobs the least. Eventually however the tech got cheaper and better.

So yes, I worry about the bottom of the economy as I always have. However getting into actual solutions DOES involve politics so I'll leave it at that.

[Bretsky]

So anybody doing some end of the year buying or selling of stocks ? Always curious.

Anybody, love or hate the following stocks (on my watchlists)

Navitas Semiconducter

Applovin

Coreweave

Circle Internet

[call_me_ishmael]

Nope, not really. I'm down a lot the past couple months from the highs. I feel my stuff is very well positioned. It's unclear why crypto tanked so much.

I don't have any cash to buy stuff, but if I did I would likely buy something AI adjacent like Micron or similar. RAM is becoming a serious bottleneck and prices are very high right now.

[bobblehead]

Nope, not really. I'm down a lot the past couple months from the highs. I feel my stuff is very well positioned. It's unclear why crypto tanked so much.

I don't have any cash to buy stuff, but if I did I would likely buy something AI adjacent like Micron or similar. RAM is becoming a serious bottleneck and prices are very high right now.

Its unclear to me why crypto ever skyrocketed. What is the EPS on bitcoin? Cash flow? Operational growth?

[bobblehead]

So anybody doing some end of the year buying or selling of stocks ? Always curious.

Anybody, love or hate the following stocks (on my watchlists)

Navitas Semiconducter

Applovin

Coreweave

Circle Internet

I made money on Applovin but got out too soon. I should have known it would run. It was my Micron trade before Micron. Similar profile, but not the same company in the micron is established with the best memory chips in the business. I think Coreweave has a bumpy ride up. I was in it but when it showed weakness before earnings I sold off (news always leaks). If you have the stomach for it, I think coreweave doubles easy in 3 years, but be ready for a roller coaster. I'm not overly familiar with the other 2, but quick glace shows me that they aren't turning a profit so I wouldn't put any money into them.

[Bretsky]

Nope, not really. I'm down a lot the past couple months from the highs. I feel my stuff is very well positioned. It's unclear why crypto tanked so much.

I don't have any cash to buy stuff, but if I did I would likely buy something AI adjacent like Micron or similar. RAM is becoming a serious bottleneck and prices are very high right now.

F"CK PAYPAL

I cleared out of that shit and rolled the money to buy more Symbotic Inc, which I took a half position at the same time I thought PYPL. My mistake.

We'll see how it works

[Bretsky]

MU...Micron earnings and revenue kicked ass today and with AI 26 future looks bring. Get on Board )

[call_me_ishmael]

Its unclear to me why crypto ever skyrocketed. What is the EPS on bitcoin? Cash flow? Operational growth?

Scarcity It is a more practical gold

[bobblehead]

MU...Micron earnings and revenue kicked ass today and with AI 26 future looks bring. Get on Board )

Yep. I've upped my price target significantly. I won't be exiting at $300 after all. I could easily see $500 by end of next year. To quote a famous immortal....what a rush!!

[Bretsky]

Yep. I've upped my price target significantly. I won't be exiting at $300 after all. I could easily see $500 by end of next year. To quote a famous immortal....what a rush!!

Doesn't the high growth AI stuff feel good

Now how do I get you to join me in the aventures of a high growth stock that's still losing money .....lol..........

[bobblehead]

Doesn't the high growth AI stuff feel good

Now how do I get you to join me in the aventures of a high growth stock that's still losing money .....lol..........

I was in and then out of tech right after people insisted THIS time tariffs would tank the economy for sure. I still invest where the growth to valuation makes sense. I can't make sense of a company spurting cash from an artery and losing money according to GAAP at the same time. If I could be sure one of the big 4 will solve quantum I would invest in it in a heartbeat even if it were losing money right now.......but what happens when Google is the one to solve it?

edit: Micron is high tech in a sense, but its one of only 2 real suppliers of memory chips to all those hyperscalers. When it comes to chips we have AMD, NVDA, MRVL, AVGO, QCOM and Intel. They are all fighting to stay ahead. Micron and Samsung are the only 2 games in the high end memory business and Samsung recently cranked up its prices leaving a lot of room for Micron to steal market or improve margins. Micron is THE play in the tech world right now imho.

[Bretsky]

any thoughts on Sentinal One Stock ??? I was in on Crowdstrike early.

Thinking this one can grow a ton.

[bobblehead]

any thoughts on Sentinal One Stock ??? I was in on Crowdstrike early.

Thinking this one can grow a ton.

I know literally nothing about it. Just looking at analyst projections and factoring in their historical accuracy its not for me.

[Bretsky]

I know literally nothing about it. Just looking at analyst projections and factoring in their historical accuracy its not for me.

Coreweave has taken a beating lately; would you bless a but at current levels ?