PIMPING STOCKS

[bobblehead]

I don't either, I wish I got out of SaaS sooner and more into AI. You all made a bunch of money while I watched my bag dwindle. I have been doing good on MU. Pretty happy you shared that one. It really was a no brainer in retrosepct.

I think MU still has legs. Notice AVGO and NVDA have rallied nicely since I said so a mere 5 days ago. The common man doesn't know how to value a stock. They get scared of fast runups when they are justified and get excited and jump onto fast runups that aren't. For whatever reason AVGO and NVDA stagnated for over 6 months, but they didn't stop growing earnings. Those are the things that make winners. And then I have significant stakes in pipelines and preferred shares through PFFA that pay my bills and dump cash every month. When I'm ready to exit those tech plays again I'll have more income than I ever really expected to have.

[call_me_ishmael]

There will be a near infinite demand for RAM for the foreseeable future and nobody is stepping up to make it the way chip makers like Google are for GPUs. At least AFAIK.

[bobblehead]

There will be a near infinite demand for RAM for the foreseeable future and nobody is stepping up to make it the way chip makers like Google are for GPUs. At least AFAIK.

HBM is the real demand, but the difference is subtle. And the key, at least for now, is that the price of HBM compared to a GPU is miniscule so no one feels the need to step in even when prices are doubling and tripling. If they continue to price up that could change, but by then MU could be a $1000 stock. People are acting like nothing has changed and this is just a normal memory supercycle that wanes and leaves a ton of inventory laying around while Micron has serious regression in earnings, and while I hate the phrase I'm going to say it anyway. This time is different.

[Bretsky]

I think TSM still has legs as well

[bobblehead]

I think TSM still has legs as well

If you hold TSM for several years I doubt you will be disappointed, but I like to get really nice entry points and TSM is just a tad high for me right now.

[call_me_ishmael]

My stock guy is now all over Micron with the rest of us.

[Bretsky]

My stock guy is now all over Micron with the rest of us.

He's just about 300 points late ))

Motely Fool just altered their Magnificent Seven. I really enjoy reading all their freebee articles via MSN

They bumped Applie and Tesla and replaced them with Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor.

[bobblehead]

My stock guy is now all over Micron with the rest of us.

His timing is a bit late. This is where the "risk" starts being baked in. Micron was a no brainer from about $180 to here. But now the question is, do we get an oversupply issue in a year or 2. I'm still staying in, but I'm up huge. Its a little shakier to initiate now.

[Bretsky]

Bobble, you have any Micron type prospects you are looking at now ? I got lucky and got in really early on MU. And then added shares in the 370s. I'm always hunting for the next biggie )

[bobblehead]

Bobble, you have any Micron type prospects you are looking at now ? I got lucky and got in really early on MU. And then added shares in the 370s. I'm always hunting for the next biggie )

Its rare to find something so disjointed from facts on the ground. I have several nice plays. OMC, MRK, ABBV all have reasonable growth for their current prices. KKR definitely has been oversold on the SaaS panic since they have little exposure. Understand that I don't swing for 100% returns often because the attempt almost always comes with massive risk. MU was a major mistake by the old guard that failed to recognize the bottleneck and assumed that while the chip market was explosively growing for some unexplainable reason the memory market was the same as it always was. No rational for that thought process yet most of the investing world made the mistake (and continues to). I'm a guy who grinds out over 10 consistently and has for decades. That compounds nicely. I have BJ tables to gamble at.

If you want to broaden the memory/storage play (and I have started to) a new ETF called DRAM is heavy in the big 3 memory makers: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung. You can't invest in the 2 korean companies generally speaking and this fixes that problem. Then they have a smaller stake in the big 3 storage: Seagate, Sandisc and Western Digital. Its a really nice ETF for a simple bet on the bottlenecks. Just came out April 1st roughly. I'm sure you know what Sandisc has done, and its not finished either. This could be the beginning of a 5 year run or it could fizzle in the next 18 months. I expect the run. But I'm watching it daily, reading constantly so if it fizzles I won't miss it.

I'll add in that i'm winding down NVDA some. Maybe all the way, time will tell. GOOG, AMZN, MSFT all have begun designing their own chips that are specialized for their own tasks. That could really dampen NVDA earnings....of course if they can start shipping to China again look out. $400/share would be on the table, but thats not happening for a bit.

So in summary you don't see the MU story very often. Last time I saw a hanging curveball like that was when some foolish pundits convinced the world that Apple had nowhere left to go because everyone had an iPhone already so the stock plummeted to something like a 10x P/E in 2016. All its done since then is 1100%. But its been a decade. Suffice it to say these obvious opportunities are rare. And I'm not going to bet on Palantir to justify 200x earnings.

[call_me_ishmael]

I don't think you can go wrong investing in energy or data center stuff right now. I would personally probably just put your money in MU. Did you see their EPS estimates for next year? They're insane. The ram shortage is super real.

Anything related to AI build out and/or powering data centers is still very well suited. I think URA is gonna run a lot further still.

[call_me_ishmael]

I can't edit my post AFAICT, but I honestly like TSLA a lot if you can wait for a few years for it to play out. It's not all about the money for me, I think what Elon is doing to reduce his own dependency on TSMC and Taiwan will enable them to do the same thing for all of America.

Outside the box idea that I have no idea how to execute but I'd love to be a part of it: Buy SpaceX on secondary markets

[Bretsky]

IONQ could make a lot of speculators rich