More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[pbmax]

With further reading, CDC started to screen travelers in mid January, but this was with the flawed test. By the time the test was fixed, the virus was here. Positively identified in Washington State. Without testing, you don't know where else it's gotten to. Each specialist I have read said travel bans were not going to keep the virus out. You needed a mitigation strategy for when it did arrive.

And so...

"Without testing, you have no idea how extensive the infection is. You can't isolate people. You can't do anything," he says. "And so then we're left with a completely different set of choices. We have to shut schools, events and everything down, because that's the only tool available to us until we get testing back up. It's been stunning to me how bad the federal response has been."

~ Mike Ryan, World Health Organization's head of emergencies

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not

[Fosco33]

XFL canceling regular season. After the first wknd -does anyone watch? I was in STL this week and people were pretty hyped about their local team.

[ThunderDan]

XFL canceling regular season. After the first wknd -does anyone watch? I was in STL this week and people were pretty hyped about their local team.

I thought it already went bankrupt and was cancelled.

[Fosco33]

I thought it already went bankrupt and was cancelled.

Paying players for rest of season and may still do playoffs. STL avg 25k fans a game. Not so much for LA.

[Fosco33]

Masters postponed.

[sharpe1027]

Tell me more.

Everything is cyclical. The bull market had to correct at some point. The correction was triggered and worsened by the virus, but it was going to happen eventually. Here's one take: https://www.tradersmagazine.com/am/i...-market-crash/

[call_me_ishmael]

Tell me more.

Funny, you and Howard were saying it was from Saudi lowering the price of oil just like week bruh.

[call_me_ishmael]

Agreed. Probably more like 20% to 60% without any precautions.

I think 60% is probably closer than 20%, but I tend to think that's even a little low based on some quick napkin math and pretending I know what I'm talking about. Let's say 20% have it. Based on exponential spreading now reason to think two weeks later 80% wouldn't be exposed to it. There's no natural immunity yet AFAIK, so one would think exposure would lead to sickness. Of course, not all exposure would be new exposure per say, so that has to be accounted for as well.

[sharpe1027]

Its always wise to extrapolate from one test case, from someone "fairly old" and of unknown medical history.

The travel ban slows down the spread. Its was not thorough enough (was only worried about China for too long) or discriminating enough (it was a questionnaire, not a medical test) to stop it. But if you delay the spread of the disease at all, you have more time to find and implement a test and other precautions. Testing has been problematic in the US because the first test kit ran into trouble right away (it has a component failure and manufacturing was slow). Last I read, two days ago, it still wasn't being produced in mass quantities.

Without widespread testing, you are guessing at the total numbers and relying on private facilities or researchers (Cleveland Clinic and the group in Seattle) to develop tests for part of a local populace. You don't know what you don't know. Those facilities are not everywhere and they can't manufacture at scale.

So limiting large scale events with people is another measure you take to slow the spread of the disease.

This thing has overrun medical facilities in other modern countries. You don't want that to happen and should act now to prevent it.

I know someone that was in a car crash without their seatbelt. They didn't get more than small abrasions. From this I conclude car crashes are no worse than stubbing your toe and people wearing seatbelts is an unnecessary overreaction.

[call_me_ishmael]

Good post, Peanut Butter. The big rumor going around today is this is going to be last day of Wisconsin public schools for awhile. We'll see if it comes to fruition. It makes sense if you're cancelling everything else.

[mraynrand]

I know someone that was in a car crash without their seatbelt. They didn't get more than small abrasions. From this I conclude car crashes are no worse than stubbing your toe and people wearing seatbelts is an unnecessary overreaction.

This is an interesting analogy, considering that we tolerate tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of injuries and yet continue using these dangerous devices.

[mraynrand]

Everything is cyclical. The bull market had to correct at some point. The correction was triggered and worsened by the virus, but it was going to happen eventually. Here's one take: https://www.tradersmagazine.com/am/i...-market-crash/

So you're saying the 'correction' was in response to the virus.

[mraynrand]

Funny, you and Howard were saying it was from Saudi lowering the price of oil just like week bruh.

Howard mentioned that it was a dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia. What brought it on?

[mraynrand]

Did anyone notice that the virus has essentially run it's course in China? They had 8 new cases yesterday and 15 the day before. Maybe the NBA can finish their season over there, if they allow infected Americans to come into their clean country.

[sharpe1027]

This is an interesting analogy, considering that we tolerate tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of injuries and yet continue using these dangerous devices.

The analogy was with reference to using a single incident to make policy.

Your point is different and the analogy may not fit as well. That's how analogies often work.

It's a cost benefit analysis. Stopping all personal auto travel forever is not a trade-off people are willing to make.

If there were no adequate mitigation for Corona, we'd just live with it.