More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[George Cumby]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Cheesehead Craig]

Funny how many NBA players are getting tested. $$$ buys better health care.

[texaspackerbacker]

Can you not honestly work out why the annual flu is different from a "novel virus"? I mean there are 4 BIG things that the words "annual flu" and "novel virus" tell you without having to do any research. Just use your noodle.

Community spread has already begun. China got word out late. Sheltered elderly are already being infected at their places of care. Tex, you are about 6 weeks behind. According to Johns Hopkins database, mortality rate now, without widespread testing, is 1.3%. That number will likely come down, but its going to get worse before it gets better.

What 6 weeks behind? The figures I gave were as recent as yesterday when I posted them last night. Yes, it's spreading within "communities" - most notably those nursing homes. Keeping it out of any of those after the earliest ones would have been a great idea, but that ship has sailed. Confining it to those places and saving as many people there is about the best you can do now. The point is, anybody below age 60 or 70 who doesn't have some serious underlying condition has very light or no symptoms. And no, the mortality rate is not gonna get worse before it gets better. Just several days ago, it as about 2.5%; Now, 1.3% - your figure, almost certainly on downward from there.

There is absolutely ZERO indication that depriving people of spectator sports or shutting down schools is gonna have any benefit for sick and old people getting the virus and dying of it. And if a lot of young and/or healthy get it, so what. The symptoms are so mild, often nonexistent that they are meaningless anyway in comparison to the enforced sacrifice and suffering we are having inflicted on us.

[QBME]

There are also currently more deaths from Covid than there were total cases of SARS. So the scales are different too.

A very insightful observation. If anybody is paying attention to the stuff that matters.

[call_me_ishmael]

Funny how many NBA players are getting tested. $$$ buys better health care.

Also sort of incredible how the NBA led, and was frankly more prepared, then the federal government here. Crazy.

[texaspackerbacker]

There are also currently more deaths from Covid than there were total cases of SARS. So the scales are different too.

Not quite true. There were 8,000 SARS cases in the U.S. and thankfully, just 30 deaths. But how about H1N1 aka Swine Flu - more than 12,000 American deaths? Or Hong Kong flu - I couldn't find a figure for the U.S., but the death toll was between 25 and 50 million worldwide. You conveniently left out those geometrically worse events which didn't bring any hysterical overreaction like we've seen for this corona thing.

[QBME]

Not quite true. There were 8,000 SARS cases in the U.S. and thankfully, just 30 deaths. But how about H1N1 aka Swine Flu - more than 12,000 American deaths? Or Hong Kong flu - I couldn't find a figure for the U.S., but the death toll was between 25 and 50 million worldwide. You conveniently left out those geometrically worse events which didn't bring any hysterical overreaction like we've seen for this corona thing.

8,000 cases worldwide, not US :https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...-sars-outbreak

A whopping 8 cases confirmed in US.

Go check your toilet paper and ammunition stock piles.

[Joemailman]

Sent in renewal of my Gold package season tickets earlier this week. Wouldn't rule out that they'll have to refund my money eventually.

[QBME]

Not quite true. There were 8,000 SARS cases in the U.S. and thankfully, just 30 deaths. But how about H1N1 aka Swine Flu - more than 12,000 American deaths? Or Hong Kong flu - I couldn't find a figure for the U.S., but the death toll was between 25 and 50 million worldwide. You conveniently left out those geometrically worse events which didn't bring any hysterical overreaction like we've seen for this corona thing.

And this from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html

Go take a stroll in the fresh air.

[texaspackerbacker]

I have to give you that one hahahahaha. What have you got to say about the comparison to H1N1, Hong Kong Flu, Spanish Flu, regular unnamed flu, traffic accidents, murders, drug overdoses, etc.? We didn't panic and shutdown sports or schools or restaurants or much of anything else for those.

[pbmax]

What 6 weeks behind? The figures I gave were as recent as yesterday when I posted them last night. Yes, it's spreading within "communities" - most notably those nursing homes. Keeping it out of any of those after the earliest ones would have been a great idea, but that ship has sailed. Confining it to those places and saving as many people there is about the best you can do now. The point is, anybody below age 60 or 70 who doesn't have some serious underlying condition has very light or no symptoms. And no, the mortality rate is not gonna get worse before it gets better. Just several days ago, it as about 2.5%; Now, 1.3% - your figure, almost certainly on downward from there.

There is absolutely ZERO indication that depriving people of spectator sports or shutting down schools is gonna have any benefit for sick and old people getting the virus and dying of it. And if a lot of young and/or healthy get it, so what. The symptoms are so mild, often nonexistent that they are meaningless anyway in comparison to the enforced sacrifice and suffering we are having inflicted on us.

The post I was responding to had no figures in it.

I was responding to the idea that slowing the spread in the general population did not help those at risk. Its not just retirement communities and nursing homes that have to be closed off. People come into contact with the compromised and elderly everywhere. Say, in your own home. You can't close a limited number of those institutions and slow the spread. You have to act widely to have an impact.

So that means the largest gatherings are the first places to stop.

[pbmax]

There is absolutely ZERO indication that depriving people of spectator sports or shutting down schools is gonna have any benefit for sick and old people getting the virus and dying of it. And if a lot of young and/or healthy get it, so what. The symptoms are so mild, often nonexistent that they are meaningless anyway in comparison to the enforced sacrifice and suffering we are having inflicted on us.

Here are some details on your zero indication. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51915302

1. It's just the flu!: The modelling projected that if the UK did nothing, 81% of people would be infected and 510,000 would die from coronavirus by August.

2. Mitigation (some social distancing mainly of the vulnerable): would still result in about 250,000 deaths and completely overwhelm intensive care in the NHS.

3. Suppression (what Wisconsin is doing* plus possible closure to non essential travel): The report concludes "suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time". It is hoped deaths could be limited to the thousands or tens of thousands.

The analysis estimated the limits of intensive care would be "exceeded by at least eight-fold" even under the most optimistic mitigation plans.

As for the "its just the flu crowd".

They said coronavirus was the most serious public health threat seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 flu pandemic - known as the Spanish flu. The Spanish flu, first diagnosed in Kansas on a military base, is thought to have originated elsewhere. Britain, France and China being the most commonly named.


* Don't know where other states are with this, but Wisconsin has closed all schools and college campuses. Restaurants are doing curbside and takeout only, bars malls and churches are closed and gatherings are limited to 10 people.

More details on that Imperial College report here: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-re...b2b7c1b50.html

[George Cumby]

I actually don't gaf if certain folks dgaf and won't protect themselves. Unfortunately, they jeopardize everyone else in the process.

It's a really weird, nihilistic and very dangerous I DONT CARE ABOUT YOU, FUCK YOU! mindset.

[mraynrand]

what's happening in South Korea today

Try running the models assuming the virus was a month ahead of what they are showing. Then at least 10 million in the US have already been infected and recovered.

It's entirely possible that the distinctions we're seeing are due to different country demographics. For example, in China (and other countries) the rate for elderly death is dramatically higher (as much as 10-20x) for men. Not surprisingly, men in those countries smoke much more than women. Also, countries with ten times higher air pollution than the US, with endemic emphysema, and other respiratory ailments are seeing higher incidents of RESPIRATORY complications to what is a respiratory flu virus.

Yes, this is another flu virus, which has a specific preferred target, both biologically and demographically. If China lied about when it originally got out (early December as opposed to early January), then the estimates of spread are totally off, and what we're seeing now are the second wave effects of a virus that millions have already been exposed to, and we're seeing a focus on the most acute cases in the most susceptible places and on the most susceptible demographic.

174 have died in the US so far, and millions may have been exposed. In the past three weeks, 2000 have died from typical seasonal flu.

[mraynrand]

It's a really weird, nihilistic and very dangerous I DONT CARE ABOUT YOU, FUCK YOU! mindset.

hey, you noticed! (this is nothing new, we're just getting an opportunity to see it). Maybe a good question to ask is what has changed in the past decades to increase nihilism and solipsism.