More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[bobblehead]

Is there a metric (chart) showing relative levels of output year over year from China. Did someone do a comparison to previous years and also previous Body burning increases in China, like when they’ve pulverized bodies in the past?

I think China has about 7 million death/year. That’s around 20,000/day. Depending on the percent bodies normally incinerated, the increase due to a few thousand corona deaths might not even appear as a blip. However, it’s possible most of their dead are processed into Soylent Green to feed the Uyghurs so maybe you could see the increase after all....

I should have been clearer. We are just talking about Wuhan. Their population is 20 million I believe.

[bobblehead]

Just read that latest death rate in U.S. is standing at 1.25%. My guess is thats why we want to test everyone and their brother. The more confirmed cases, the lower the death rate.

[sharpe1027]

I have to give you that one hahahahaha. What have you got to say about the comparison to H1N1, Hong Kong Flu, Spanish Flu, regular unnamed flu, traffic accidents, murders, drug overdoses, etc.? We didn't panic and shutdown sports or schools or restaurants or much of anything else for those.

Good point. shutting down schools really cuts down on traffic accidents.

[sharpe1027]

Just read that latest death rate in U.S. is standing at 1.25%. My guess is thats why we want to test everyone and their brother. The more confirmed cases, the lower the death rate.

You want to test so you can identify the carriers and slow the spread so hospitals have a chance at treating everyone. Otherwise, the death rate will be pretty high.

[mraynrand]

You want to test so you can identify the carriers and slow the spread so hospitals have a chance at treating everyone. Otherwise, the death rate will be pretty high.

Assuming the Imperial College models are correct

[mraynrand]

I should have been clearer. We are just talking about Wuhan. Their population is 20 million I believe.

That’s still 50-100/day and they get seasonal flu too., which kills a lot more than corona, and would be spiking about the same time. So unless they’re burning the bodies in one big outdoor pile like Jawas, I’m skeptical.

[sharpe1027]

Assuming the Imperial College models are correct

Partially. Italy is providing a pretty good test case. Also, even if the models are pretty far off, we'd still run out of ICU space.

[pbmax]

I am not sure about calling corona less deadly than flu. What I have read about its virology is that its one of three of the worst viral pathogens* to outbreak this century behind only the Spanish Flu in 1918. And I am not sure deadly its the most important metric now given that hospitals are getting overrun and in some countries there have been death preventable by basic medical interventions. We'll know much more after the fact. But even with top line numbers, we aren't done yet. I read yesterday that the total dead is still doubling every 3 days, same as in the UK. And that Just Wolfers tweet I linked to yesterday indicated that cases are increasing faster and later in the timeline than other countries.

Given the more widespread testing is still being prioritized to the symptomatic, that doesn't seem to be good news. Also,

1. There is no history of immunity (there might be immunity out there but limited testing so far probably hasn't teased that out)
2. There is no vaccine.
3. There was precious little preparation (health system)
4. There was no anticipation among vulnerable

But most importantly

5. States are taking extreme precautions to lower infection rates.

And a question

6. Without widespread testing, are people dying who are not known to have had corona? Seems practical that testing would also be prioritized for the living.


* I will go look for the link, but the two others were not recent.

[mraynrand]

Partially. Italy is providing a pretty good test case. Also, even if the models are pretty far off, we'd still run out of ICU space.

Italy is a terrible test case. They had a huge Chinese population working there. They are extremely old with median age of death over 80. Of the people dying about 50% had 3 or more other illnesses, 25% had 2 and only a low percent had none. They smoke like hell over there too, and air pollution is bad. All these thing exacerbate a respiratory virus.

Corona viruses are cold viruses that attack cells in the airways. Probably a number of compromised people have increased levels of ACE2 which is associated with hypertension etc. (I confess I’ve forgotten how that works).

Anyway, it a mutated cold virus that’s more severe than the common cold but is causing specific flu symptoms and is going after the weakest in society. Unlike Other flu viruses however, it’s much much less virulent towards the very young, which was a problem With SARS, which infected 60 million and killed 12,000 - 17,000 in the US.

[mraynrand]

6. Without widespread testing, are people dying who are not known to have had corona? Seems practical that testing would also be prioritized for the living..

It will be hard to tease this out, especially since the flu incidence this year is relatively low. We’ve only had 22,000 flu deaths this year (2,000 in the past three weeks). Highly unlikely that these are due to corona because corona presents differently because it’s respiratory with dry cough. We are at tail end of flu season. So all this social distancing may reduce common flu and colds. I don’t think that’s worth an economic depression, but silver linings, silver linings.

[mraynrand]

Also, carefully read this. Italian doctors are listing every death of a patient with corona virus as a corona caused death, even if its from another illness.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

[pbmax]

Even if Italy makes a poor example, the over-running of hospitals has been seen elsewhere. So it could be repeated without non-common flu like mitigations, making the distinction between death by corona versus death by lack of treatment for other respiratory complications academic.

South Korea still is registering a mortality rate much huge than season flu. Though I have not seen an updated number reported. John Hopkins puts it at 1.1% from public data.

[mraynrand]

Even if Italy makes a poor example, the over-running of hospitals has been seen elsewhere. So it could be repeated without non-common flu like mitigations, making the distinction between death by corona versus death by lack of treatment for other respiratory complications academic.

South Korea still is registering a mortality rate much huge than season flu. Though I have not seen an updated number reported. John Hopkins puts it at 1.1% from public data.

It could be that bad. But that’s public data from skewed testing of positive cases. Compare total cases, total fatalities with total flu cases and total cases and fatalities from other outbreaks. At least that gives you a frame of reference. If this thing burns out in a month like it should, there should be far fewer total fatalities and cases than seasonal flu and other outbreaks like swine flu. Of course there’s statistical error in the numbers so we won’t know for a while yet. I’m still hoping the antibody testing (which will reveals not just active infection but people who have been exposed and ‘recovered’ - or never had it) will show a far larger exposure and we can end this madness sooner than later.

[pbmax]

Total positive cases are also skewed by the madness. I look forward to what will likely look like flu-prevention measures (vaccine, anti-virals, more comprehensive testing and data) to prevent the madness in the future.

The antibody info would, if available, fill in a lot of the gaps.

[Joemailman]

Looking more and more likely that the Summer Olympics will have to be at least postponed. Not because of the situation in Japan, but because the situation is getting worse in so many other countries. It'a already causing havoc with training and qualifying, with training facilities being closed.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) executive board announced Sunday that the group has decided to step up scenario-planning for the 2020 Tokyo Games in reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The options that the IOC are currently considering include modifying operational plans to allow the games to begin on schedule on July 24 as well as changing the start date for the games.

The IOC says this scenario-planning will allow for the best decision in the interest of the athletes and everyone else involved.

The IOC executive board decided that cancellation of the Tokyo Games would not solve any problems or help anybody, and thus decided cancellation is not on the agenda.

The IOC points out that conditions in Japan have improved significantly, though globally there has been a dramatic increase in Covid-19 cases.