Revolving door GM???

[wist43]

I see most everyone is fairly giddy over day 1, but...

I like the Brohm pick, but that has as much to do with the fact that I don't like Rodgers - in general I give GM's a pass on QB's - they're next to impossible to project.

Anyway, the Nelson and Lee picks are troubling to me - Nelson b/c TT creates another log jam situation, and Lee b/c he seems to fit the Packers preferred template for evaluating college CB's - raw physical ability, little experience, and virtually no production. PFW's write up of Lee sounds eeirly like Ahmad Carroll... Carroll, Antwan Edwards, et al... the Packers don't have a very good track record of evaluating college corners.

The Nelson pick speaks to another problem - building a bloody team. This is two years in a row... The Harrell pick pushed Williams off the roster - will the Nelson pick push Jennings off the roster after '09???

So how does this make the team better??? Harrell clearly isn't better than Williams, so not only did we lose a better player at a position of strength already, we wasted a 1st round pick that could have been used at another position.

So here comes Nelson... let's say he's a hell of a player - ok, great. A lot of people are already projecting Jennings to a big payday in '10 FA and what are the odds that TT will pay him? probably not good; so, we let Jennings walk, Driver will be strictly a possesseion guy by then; James Jones showed some ability last year, I'd imagine Jones won't be happy as a 4th receiver and will make up his mind fairly quickly to bolt as soon as FA allows.

TT created a mess at DT last year and not only wasted a 1st round pick, he ran off a damn good player in Williams. Now he drafts Nelson, and will likely run off Jennings, Jones, or both.

The Brohm and Rodgers picks could also be used as object lessons in Teddism... We're told Rodgers was "a steal", "too much value to pass up", blah, blah, blah - does anyone really think the guy will lead us to a SB??? Of course not.

Either way you slice it - one of the two of them is a wasted pick. If Brohm becomes the starter, then TT wasted the '05 1st round pick. If Rodgers stays the starter (something I seriously doubt) and Brohm rides the bench, the best we could hope for would be a trade in 3-4 years - so did we spend a 2rd rd pick this year essentially to trade it for a future 2nd or 3rd round pick. More wheel spinning than team building.

I think Brohm has a much better chance than Rodgers so I'm not viewing the day as a total loss, but the drafting of Nelson, regardless of whether he turns out to be a player or not, speaks to what I consider to be a fundamentally debilitating flaw in TT - complete and total tunnel vision with respect to each and every player, regardless of position, and without any regard to building a roster.

In the end, TT's philosophy seems to be self-torpedoing... draft the highest rated guy on your board, regardless of whether that means you have to move another good guy off your roster on the other end.

I've said this before - I think it is entirely possible that TT is a great talent evaluator, that can continually supply a franchise with good talent, but will likely never be able to build a championship team.

[red]

i'll agree with you on the logjam problem and the loss of williams because of the harrell pick not leaving us in a better position

and what you said about the wr's i also agree with and fear. after reading that jones isn't happy, i could see him walking or asking to be traded. he has way to much talent to be a #4. in the nfl these days its all about money for the players. if he gets stuck at #4 he won't get the numbers, and he won't get the big payday.

he could go somewhere else and be a #2 and put up very nice numbers, and get a huge payday because of it

and the jennings thing really scares me, cause i love the guy, but you're right. TT will not give him what he's worth if he has a lot of talent already. just like williams

[SkinBasket]

Re: Revolving door GM???

Lee b/c he seems to fit the Packers preferred template for evaluating college CB's - raw physical ability, little experience, and virtually no production. PFW's write up of Lee sounds eeirly like Ahmad Carroll... Carroll, Antwan Edwards, et al... the Packers don't have a very good track record of evaluating college corners.

I hope Mike Sherman isn't evaluating college corners for us anymore.

[The Shadow]

I don't think it likely that Driver will play till he's 50.

[Bretsky]

Last year I noted almost immediately the drafting of Harrell was the beginning of the end for Williams. We ended up getting Brian Brohm for Corey Williams I think.

But I don't think Nelson's selection is a pre cursor to Jennings leaving.

Jennings is developing into a true star in the NFL; you can't let those guys go.
If he does many in here will have every right to flame TT

[Tony Oday]

Im under the impression that anything that Wist doesnt like is good for the Packers

Wist hates Barnett...career year last year...I think we may have just drafted the next Dieon Sanders and Jerry Rice

[KYPack]

Wist, I know you like to accentuate the negatory, but this post borders on the ridiculous. What is TT doing? his job. He's adding talent to the roster. Every GM manages 3 teams:

The guys that are leaving because of value, contract or talent issues.
The guys on the current roster
The guys that are being added.

Look at the roster Thompson inheirited in Jan of 2005, look at the current roster and tell me if he's doing his job.

The current draft looks good to me, but nobody really knows.

This line from your post put me over the edge...

If Rodgers stays the starter (something I seriously doubt) and Brohm rides the bench, the best we could hope for would be a trade in 3-4 years - so did we spend a 2rd rd pick this year essentially to trade it for a future 2nd or 3rd round pick. More wheel spinning than team building

That is some stupid shit, Bud.

You don't think Rodgers can start?

Gimme a break.

[wist43]

Wist, I know you like to accentuate the negatory, but this post borders on the ridiculous. What is TT doing? his job. He's adding talent to the roster. Every GM manages 3 teams:

The guys that are leaving because of value, contract or talent issues.
The guys on the current roster
The guys that are being added.

Look at the roster Thompson inheirited in Jan of 2005, look at the current roster and tell me if he's doing his job.

The current draft looks good to me, but nobody really knows.

This line from your post put me over the edge...

If Rodgers stays the starter (something I seriously doubt) and Brohm rides the bench, the best we could hope for would be a trade in 3-4 years - so did we spend a 2rd rd pick this year essentially to trade it for a future 2nd or 3rd round pick. More wheel spinning than team building

That is some stupid shit, Bud.

You don't think Rodgers can start?

Gimme a break.

QB position is a different animal... given the Packers offensive system - they can't win a championship w/o a pro bowl calibur QB. Is Rodgers a pro bowl calibur QB??? I seriously doubt that, and even if he had the talent, he's certainly got huge question marks wrt durability.

Can Rodgers start in the NFL??? Probably. Can he carry a team and stay healthy??? Probably not.

I have higher hopes for Brohm... as I said, I don't mind the Brohm pick b/c if the Packers don't have the QB on the roster that can carry them to a championship, which they don't, then they have to keep bringing guys in.

Brohm may prove to be a bust, in which case I don't have a problem with investing in QB's in the draft... I may like, or dislike a guy for any number of reasons, but one thing is for sure - projecting QB's from college to the pros is an absolute crap shoot, much more so than other positions IMO. Psychological makeup, leadership skills, etc, play a huge part in the success of a QB, and it's very difficult for us to get a feel for those things from watching them on film or in an interview.

As for my larger point... I think there's a difference between creating competition at a given position and creating log jams. Did he create competition for the #3 position with Jones??? Jones is tailor made as a #3 WR in a WCO - you have the position filled - now you bring in Nelson, who may be better, but now you've demoted a guy who was comfortably slotted on your roster, pissed him off, and created another log jam.

If the politics of this work out to where Jennings walks after '10, and Jones is disgruntled with his role for the next 2-3 years, how does that appreciably improve the team??? Just as, how did the pick of Harrell and the walking Williams improve the team???

Projecting Jennings to walk is pure speculation of course, but TT has set the table again making it more of a possibility. If he extends Jennings, and Driver is phased out in favor of Nelson, with Jones staying in the mix as the #3, then I'm a happy camper.

I have a hard time seeing TT breaking open his checkbook for Jennings when he has Nelson waiting in the wings though... If Jennings waliks, then I don't like the Nelson pick at all. Even if he proves to be a good player - b/c TT will have accomplished with Nelson and Jennings what he accomplished with Harrell and Williams.

[pbmax]

The beginning of the end for Williams was the market for his services as a pass rusher. And that was easy to deduce before Harrell was picked. After seeing him log serious starting minutes last season and see the D Line wear down, do you really think he's worth that cash? And he clearly wasn't in the mood for a same team discount.

The issue of how do you build a complete team is a good one, but look at it in reverse. The Patriots filled all their holes last year in FA with good and relatively young talent. Exception might be linebacker. And what did that get them? No title.

The Giants had a logjam at DE, a mismatched set of LBs and a lot of young CBs and RBs. But their talent took the game. It didn't have anything to do with the beauty of roster construction, which is probably more important in 162 games of baseball than football's 16.

Churning two thirds of the roster with young players means they will have a better shot at finding special players rather than pay big money to limited players. It means you get upside rather than down and probably better health overall.

Jennings likely qualifies as a number one guy after Driver retires or slows down. Who is number two right then? The WR corp is deep, but not hugely talented. Jones maybe? Not Martin, and Robinson is probably short term as well.

No idea if Brohm is the guy and wist may be right about Lee. But there is no position on the Packers that doesn't need upgrading or depth.

[Packnut]

Jennings

No way will TT let Jennings walk. He's the crown of Teddy's drafts.

I've agreed a lot with what Wist has said in the past especially about Harrell. That was a dumb stupid pick cause reggie Nelson would have solved our saftey problem for the next 10 years. It was a pure BONEHEAD pick. and anyone who disputes the Nelson vs Harrell debate is a football moron.

However, as bad as Harrell was, Jennings was pure genious.

It's pretty amazing that Thompson brings out such strong emotions in fans. Some hate him and some worship him with blinders on. The truth is more in the middle like I've been saying. He's batting above .500 the way I see it which ain't bad. This franchise is in better shape now with Teddy than it was before he got here..........

[pbmax]

And if Driver is limited or retired by '10, a healthy Jennings is likely going to get his contract. Not guaranteed, but likely.

[GrnBay007]

Re: Jennings

It's pretty amazing that Thompson brings out such strong emotions in fans. Some hate him and some worship him with blinders on. The truth is more in the middle

Statement of the year!!!!

[RashanGary]

Decent analysis, Wist.

I said something very similar with the QB's. Favre retired now we have to start sifting till something sticks. It's a bad situation because teams have to keep spending recources (picks) until something sticks. It might not stop at Rodgers and Brohm. It might take another first or 2nd or more. As far as I'm concerned, it was a good pick, but who knows if it will pan out. IF it doesn't, oh well. They have to start trying.

I agree with your analysis on Patrick Lee as well. I've been saying he's a raw athlete that has proven very little and those guys don't tend to all of a sudden go from bench warmer in college to starter in the NFL.

I'm mildly concerned in the short term about the log jam at WR as well. I know Driver will be declining to a lesser role soon, but right now you have 4 really good WR's. If you have Brett Favre, you can play all 4 and make teams pay. When you have Aaron Rodgers and no threat for the run it might just be a big waste. I love the pick. In the short term, I don't think it does much but in the long term, I think it really helps us at WR.

[cpk1994]

Decent analysis, Wist.

I said something very similar with the QB's. Favre retired now we have to start sifting till something sticks. It's a bad situation because teams have to keep spending recources (picks) until something sticks. It might not stop at Rodgers and Brohm. It might take another first or 2nd or more. As far as I'm concerned, it was a good pick, but who knows if it will pan out. IF it doesn't, oh well. They have to start trying.

I agree with your analysis on Patrick Lee as well. I've been saying he's a raw athlete that has proven very little and those guys don't tend to all of a sudden go from bench warmer in college to starter in the NFL.

I'm mildly concerned in the short term about the log jam at WR as well. I know Driver will be declining to a lesser role soon, but right now you have 4 really good WR's. If you have Brett Favre, you can play all 4 and make teams pay. When you have Aaron Rodgers and no threat for the run it might just be a big waste. I love the pick. In the short term, I don't think it does much but in the long term, I think it really helps us at WR.

Are you on crack? What do you mean no threat for the run? Did you forget Ryan Grant? Secondly, you only have 2 really good recievers in Jennings and Driver before you even get to Nelson. Martin and KRob are expendable and Jones is no lock. Driver is getting much older. Hardly a log jam.

[RashanGary]

You might be right. I do like Driver, Jennings AND Jones though. Jones showed great hands and very good short area burst to get open and get YAC. I think he's a player - a solid #2 WR.

Nelson might be reserved to a backup/ST role in year one and two. Maybe that's not such a bad thing. We shouldn't be counting so heavily on rookies anyway. In the long term, Driver goes and Nelson steps in. I did say I liked the pick long term. Acctually, I love the pick. I think he's going to be a great Packer. Maybe it's not even bad short term if you buy into the "rookies shouldn't be counted on as starters" thing. I know a lot of coaches prefer letting rookies earn the starting role over a year or two, not just handing it to them on day one.

I've tried to figure out how to use everyone, and it's hard to imagine Rodgers running a spread offense in the NFL. It's a lot of pressure. Maybe I shouldn't be thinking about how to get a rookie on the field right now. Maybe I should just chill out and let him work his way in with ST's, a reserve role and injuries.