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Originally posted by MJZiggy
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And you're probably right. We gotta do something to pass the time!
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Problem is, he's been hurt a lot since his fantastic sophomore season. It'll be interesting to see how soon someone takes a chance on him.Originally posted by Lurker64
I can't run no more
With that lawless crowd
While the killers in high places
Say their prayers out loud
But they've summoned, they've summoned up
A thundercloud
They're going to hear from me - Leonard CohenComment
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P.J. Hill at 222 is a shocker to me as well. I still believe that if Hill is going to make it in the NFL it will be as a fullback rather than as a tailback. I just don't think he has the speed or the shiftiness to make it as a tailback.Originally posted by Harlan HucklebyComment
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MJ WHO?!Originally posted by MJZiggy
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Greg Bedard posted just before he left Indy that the Packers really, really should take Andre Smith right off the draft board. If they pick him at #9 after all the stuff that's been said - and I expect there's more that hasn't been published (as Bedard wrote, "Trust me on this") - I will simply begin to cry.
But based on TT's history, he wouldn't do that.
Don't start with that kinda crap now, TT."The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."
KYPackComment
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Brian Orakpo is an animal.70% of the Earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by Al Harris.Comment
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raks moving up and i think maybin will be moving down after their 40 timesOriginally posted by 3irty1Comment
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40 isn't that important, as long as it's "good enough" (4.80)
Same with the bench, doesn't matter a whole lot unless they can't put it up 20 times.
The vert is the one to watch. The studs can jump high.
Connor Barwin's stock currently has several solid rocket boosters sending it upwards, and Everette Brown has an anchor attached to his.
Barwin is the #1 3-4 OLB IMO, Brown is a DND.
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raji is looking good today
just looking on paper though waldo, what looks much more impressive
a guy who's 265 and runs a 4.6
or a guy thats 250 and runs a 4.8
what did brown do? i missed himComment
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He jumped 31.5". Horrible. To be considered an elite talent I'd be looking for 37-38"+Originally posted by redComment
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I've had a project going for a long time, collecting the measurables of guys, analyzing, and projecting performance. I've limited it in scope to the defensive front 7. I'm going to keep adding to this spreadsheet (updating from my working copy which is in Open Office, not Google docs).
Measurables Spreadsheet
To interpret the document:
The Master tab is just a big list of everyone with very little rhyme or reason to the order. I add stuff to that list before moving each into the correct category.
The Bench tab is a chart of the most commonly used formula to convert reps into peak, some sources list the guys strength as peak instead of 225 reps and I use that chart to convert.
Each position in either a 3-4 or 4-3 has its own tab.
Green = Elite
Yellow = Starter
Peach = Backup
Orange = Performance bust
Red = Injury bust
I listed on the right what the sort is for each page. Some pages I found failure trends and created blocks of them at the bottom. They are divided by a visible line, and the criteria for the failure block is listed to the right.
Draft is the guys from the current draft, there is almost no info as of yet.
The formulas:
KEI - Kirwan explosion index. Reps+Vert+Broad. A fairly raw # that just adds up the quantities. Developed by Pat Kirwan. Raw but effective.
40/SS - 40 time minus the short shuttle time. The greater the positive discrepancy, the better a player's change of direction ability is.
LPI - Leg Power Index. ((weight-50*(height-3))*Vert*Broad)/35000, a normalization of their jumps corrected for weight and height (slightly), 1 is good, making it possible to compare the jump of a 5'11" 300 lb guy to the jump of a 6'7" 240 lb guy and how much force their legs are generating. Not perfect, but a lot better than nothing.
API - Arm Power Index. (Arm length-16)*reps/500, a normalization of their bench reps for arm length. Again, 1 is good, representing how much power they can put into a punch. Not perfect, but a lot better than nothing.
OPI - Overall Power Index. (LPI+(API/2))/1.5, a normailization of the sum of the two indexes with the legs being twice as important as the arms. Yet again, not perfect, but better than nothing.
MA - Mass Acceleration Ability. (Weight*Weight/10yd split)/50000 or (Weight*Weight/40 time)/17500, not all guys have 10 yd split info, so the 40 has to suffice at times, generally the results are the same or very close, but the intent is to model the momentum they can rapidly generate (bullrushing power when putting their weight into it), so the 10 yd split is more accurate for the intent IMO, top end speed matters little. Very effective model for predicting DT eliteness.Comment
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Some commentary:
3-4 OLB - The OPI sort seems quite good at modeling success. Heven't really identified any too slow/too weak threshholds to pull guys out of the primary sort yet.
3-4 DE - Limited data set, just did a basic OPI sort, need to work on the position more.
3-4 NT - Again, a fairly limited data set that I've been working to expand (not a lot of 3-4 NT's in the NFL though that came into the league in the last 6 years or so (workout data is near impossible to find before that)). But it appears thus far that running at least a 5.20 40 and/or a 8.0 3 cone is important for success. Separates the athletic big men from the just big men.
3-4 ILB - Vert is about the only sort that puts the busts on the bottom. "good football players" seem to be more important than most measurables.
4-3 DE - Eye popping results here. Bottom failure group are the slow pokes that couldn't run at least a 4.8 40 or 1.7 10. Middle failure group are the guys that couldn't put up 20 reps on the bench. Top group is everybody else sorted by OPI. Note that Mark Anderson is right on the too weak line, he and Jeremy Thompson are the only non-elites.
4-3 DT - Again, eye popping results. Failure abounds when they can't run at least a 1.75 10 or 5.10 40. Faster than that and they almost always make it. Sorted by MA clusters the elites at the top.
4-3 MLB - Almost no rhyme or reason, sorted by vert since it correlates somewhat, but "good football players" appear to be more important than any measurables.
4-3 OLB - 40/SS has a strong correlation. Not much point in playing a guy anywhere but SLB if his shuttle isn't at least 0.50 seconds faster than his 40, unless he is a straight line turbo, running a sub 1.55 10 yd split. Sorted by 40/SS
There are a lot of missing 3 cones....I added the column late and haven't gone back to find all the data yet.Comment
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top official DL times
Sidbury, Jr., Lawrence 4.64
Barwin, Connor 4.66
Brown, Everette 4.73
Johnson, Michael 4.75
Sulak, Stryker 4.77
Brown, Cody 4.84
Butler, Victor 4.84
Veikune, David 4.87
Gilbert, Jarron 4.87
Orakpo is grouped with the LBers and ran a 4.70"I'd rather see the players' wives playing beach volleyball for Jello-shots in Honolulu between the division championships and the Super Bowl." SwedeComment
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Barwin, Connor 40.5Originally posted by Waldo
Johnson, Michael 38.5
Maybin, Aaron 38.0
Walker, Derek 37.5
Brown, Cody 36.5
English, Larry 36.0
Baker, Chris 35.5
Gilbert, Jarron 35.5
Sidbury, Jr., Lawrence 35.0
Orakpo, Brian 39.5"I'd rather see the players' wives playing beach volleyball for Jello-shots in Honolulu between the division championships and the Super Bowl." SwedeComment
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Good stuff. Hawk put up some good numbers.Originally posted by Waldo
4.59 40 (good)
1.56 10 (elite)
3.86 SS (elite)
40" vert (elite)
24 reps (decent)"There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted ThompsonComment
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