Packers express interest in Chris Canty

[Lurker64]

My sense - and the numbers back this up - is that TT sees the most value in the second and third rounds. Contrary to the opinion of some, TT does NOT love the 7th round best; he has in fact has more second round picks than any other, closely followed by the seventh and third rounds, I believe.

There's actually some serious scholarship to back up the utility of second and third round picks. I would refer anybody who wants to read more about this to Massey and Thaler's paper Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League, which is, as far as I can tell, no longer available for free on the internet, but if you google "Massey Thaler NFL draft" you'll get some results.

The paper's really interesting and is full of lots of data and compelling graphs like:



The important thing to look at on that graph is the "surplus" line, which is the difference between the curves, that is performance value minus compensation cost. The operative principle is that compensation falls off faster towards the end of the first round than does performance, so the maximum surplus falls between picks 25 and 75, and the surplus for third round players is actually greater than much of the first round.

That's not to say, of course, that the player picked at #30 will be better than the player picked at #1, simply that the player picked at #30 and some combination of other players who can be signed with the money you didn't have to pay the guy picked #1 will bring more total utility for your team than the #1 guy will.

The ultimate benefit of the high picks is that they offer a higher chance at picking true superstars, who are richly compensated and more than merit it with their performance (and you definitely want those guys), but based on the numbers and the probabilities, late firsts, as well as seconds and thirds are really the picks you want if you're going to stockpile.

You can absolutely win championships with a combination of late firsts, second and third round guys, and reasonably priced free agents. In fact, that's how most teams win championships these days.

[vince]

Good stuff Lurk. The Free Agent market plays out the same way except it also has trickle down effects with other players on the team that need to renew that the draft doesn't have...

Given the cost of Canty and how that signing would handcuff the rest of the signings this year and next, and the other team's current interest in Canty, and the seeming lack of current interest in Igor, I'd say the Packers would do well to pursue and sign Igor before the others who lose out on Canty turn their attention toward him.

[Fritz]

Dang, Waldo, you are the best thing that has happened to my Packer life since the internet.

dang fritz, this hurts. i didn't even merit consideration?? and after all the nice things I said about you. you have been my favorite posted in last July, but waldo comes in and sweeps you off your feet and thats the end of it...

You're a good man, Falco. A good man.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I still haven't given out hope that Harrell will play this year. If Harrell can get it together we have our starting DE's already on the team.

[Joemailman]

I still haven't given out hope that Harrell will play this year. If Harrell can get it together we have our starting DE's already on the team.

If being the operative word here. The Packers can't go into the season counting on Harrell like they did last year. If Harrell can produce this year, all the better. The packers have learned, I hope, that you can't have too much depth on the DL.

[Lurker64]

I still haven't given out hope that Harrell will play this year. If Harrell can get it together we have our starting DE's already on the team.

If being the operative word here. The Packers can't go into the season counting on Harrell like they did last year. If Harrell can produce this year, all the better. The packers have learned, I hope, that you can't have too much depth on the DL.

Yeah, counting on Harrell for this year was what got them into a lot of trouble on the defensive front last year. He could be great if he can stay healthy, but nobody's seen the "healthy" thing out of him yet.

[red]

have you guys ever seen olshansky?

lazy loafers look like this



this is olshanski



note the differences. fat lazy loafers usually don't look like that. its obvious he spends some time working out[/list]

[MJZiggy]

Dang, Waldo, you are the best thing that has happened to my Packer life since the internet.

dang fritz, this hurts. i didn't even merit consideration?? and after all the nice things I said about you. you have been my favorite posted in last July, but waldo comes in and sweeps you off your feet and thats the end of it...

Hey, I'm not getting any love here either, bud...I've been jilted.

[RashanGary]

Nice posts: Vince, Lurker, Waldo, Fritz.

[digitaldean]

[quote="Waldo"]

Something I do know:
Been watching the airport all day. At about the exact same time, 2 private jets left the GB airport, one went to Scottsdale, one went to Ft. Myers. Each one is owned by a Packers board member (2 different guys). One (the one in Ft. Myers) is known to be used by the Packers (it is the one Murphy took down to Hattiesburgh). Both had return flights flights to GB scheduled before they landed. The Arizona flight was on the ground for 25 minutes and headed back to GB. It just landed a few minutes ago. The Ft. Myers flight just canceled it's return flight flight plan. There's a good chance that there is a FA in GB right now that was picked up in Scottsdale. Hard to make out whats going on in Ft. Myers, they planned to be on the ground for 30 minutes before they landed, but that has changed.

I'd say can Vandermause from GBPG or Lori Nickel from JSO... Waldo's gonna outscoop both of them.

Waldo...has security found you and your laptop yet hiding in the dumpster while you're scoping out this information??

[Fritz]

Dang, Waldo, you are the best thing that has happened to my Packer life since the internet.

dang fritz, this hurts. i didn't even merit consideration?? and after all the nice things I said about you. you have been my favorite posted in last July, but waldo comes in and sweeps you off your feet and thats the end of it...

Hey, I'm not getting any love here either, bud...I've been jilted.

Who jilted you, MJ???

You're the Princess here, no?

[MJZiggy]

Dissed for a monkey (though a damn knowledgeable one)


(and I wouldn't go quite so far as princess--I always avoid the dudes on match who are looking for princesses)

[pbmax]

I've heard - only heard - that Olshansky is a loafer, a bad attitude guy, etc. What has anyone else heard? Anybody have any credible info?

That's the JSO blog said. Everyone I've talked to, including SD fans, disagrees with that sentiment completely. They're letting him walk since SD treats DE's like TT treats G's. They don't pay a lot so that they can pay their pass rushers and NT's alot. TT pays for his fancy tackles with cheap guards.

I've become so jaded agaisnt the JSO and GBPG that I can't even read them any more, basically assuming every word they write has an agenda, and that their "scouts" are nothing more than their beer drinking buddies. I do talk to an actual scout (not a pro scout) and several guys that played D1 college football, they always disagree with the newspapers scout's assessments.

I thought that we weren't going to be after Canty, according to their sources. The JSO is full of crap. If Igor is the next best option if we can't get Canty, why not paint him in a bad light when they know that he's a probable signing, that way they can rip on TT when he does sign him. They never, ever, ever can praise TT, and often print negative seed stories when they know something is going to happen (see the latest talk that Pickett is inadequate at NT) so that they can rip on it when it does happen.

I have no problem with the critique of the paper's sources, but the anti-TT agenda thing is going one step too far.

Wilde and McGinn (no idea on GBPG) were the only two football writers giving the Packer's side the Favre situation any run last summer (edit: overstatement-Glazer and Schefter were getting Packer info too). To the point that most radio and letter to the editor traffic (and some commenters here) thought they were acting like the press release office.

There has been a decided turn-around narrative developing since the end of the season that the locals are always hacking away at Thompson and the Packers. I don't believe this to be the case. I think they are more at the mercy of their sources more than we know. For instance, the communication floodgate was as wide open as ever (both leaks and on the record) for the Favre A Poolooza. They haven't had access to either T2 or M3 like that very often. Add that to the fact that Favre had frozen the local guys out and made the national guys his go to media outlet, their information was generally pro Packer.

That is unlike the end of this season, where both coach and GM retreated after firing several coaches. You go 6-10 and then fire the defensive staff, it looks like a clusterfudge, and in failing to say word one, that was the coverage they got (headline on McGinn story: Firings Make McCarthy Look Small).

I don't think they are seeding anything or grinding an axe. Their confusion on Canty and Igor could also be explained, as Waldo hypothesized, by a leak planted to throw people off their trail.

[RashanGary]

Interesting post, PB (although somewhat hard to decode after four glasses of Pinot). You're probably right on many counts.


My opinion:

I'd say the GBPG is better/more reliable and JSO is more interesting. When GBPG comes out with a story, I feel about twice as confident that it's true than JSO. I probably read JSO more (just because I'm looking for controversy), but I usually wait for GBPG to print something before I believe it.

GBPG is not perfect, but they usually label their stuff as rumor if it's rumor or opinion of it's opinion. JSO is much more clouded. They tend to cloud opinion and rumor with truth (it doesn't fool me so much as it annoys me because it often times gives credibility to the crazy in the name of selling papers)

[Packnut]

DL

All I know is what my eyes have seen and that is in-disputable fact that our LB's really suck at shedding blocks. Therefore, whether it's Canty or someone else, Teddy had better make a move. The only way to make this whole thing work with the LB's we have now is to have 3 BEASTS up on the line. Pickett counts as one half, so that leaves us needing 2.5 more.

You guys who throw out Harrell and Jenkins make me laugh. Neither one can stay healthy so it would be INSANE to count on them for ANYTHING. If they play at all or contribute anything is nothing more than gravy.

Sign Canty and then draft a NT at 9 who can split time with Pickett. That is about the only way out of this deep dark hole...........