Trade Down Scenarios

[wist43]

How is that my view is much more mainstream on Milwaukee sports talk radio... but a voice in the wilderness in here??? Silverstein, McGinn, Ellerson... not just me fella's.

That said... you guys seem to forget that I regard TT as a decent talent evaluator. Just don't see how his approach lands us SB's.

In another thread, don't remember who said it, or the exact quote, but I agree in general with the statement that TT simply doesn't use all of the tools available to him.

1250 has been playing a clip where TT says, "we don't draft for need"... he says it and you guys say, "nah, he really doesn't mean it", when 4 years of evidence suggests that he is shooting straight with that statement.

When you're draft 647 guys every year, you're bound to draft guys at positions of need... but drafting a DE in the 4th round is a far cry from dealing multiple draft choices to move up and draft a guy like Mario Williams (and good gravy, don't take that example literally and start going off about how Williams was unattainable - just throwing a name out there as an example of a difference maker, as opposed to a Jeremy Thompson.

[sharpe1027]

How is that my view is much more mainstream on Milwaukee sports talk radio... but a voice in the wilderness in here??? Silverstein, McGinn, Ellerson... not just me fella's.

That said... you guys seem to forget that I regard TT as a decent talent evaluator. Just don't see how his approach lands us SB's.

In another thread, don't remember who said it, or the exact quote, but I agree in general with the statement that TT simply doesn't use all of the tools available to him.

1250 has been playing a clip where TT says, "we don't draft for need"... he says it and you guys say, "nah, he really doesn't mean it", when 4 years of evidence suggests that he is shooting straight with that statement.

When you're draft 647 guys every year, you're bound to draft guys at positions of need... but drafting a DE in the 4th round is a far cry from dealing multiple draft choices to move up and draft a guy like Mario Williams (and good gravy, don't take that example literally and start going off about how Williams was unattainable - just throwing a name out there as an example of a difference maker, as opposed to a Jeremy Thompson.

How is it no matter what evidence is shown against your rationale, you hold fast to your position?

Look, you and all those others might be right that TT is not the answer. Most everyone acknowledges that. However, your arguments consistently rely upon vague generalizations and when confronted with the facts you shift your argument. You are the one trying to prove something, most of the rest of us are pointing out that it is not so cut-and-dried.

Your current position is that unless the Packers trade multiple draft picks to move up for one player the team will never win a SB? I think history says exactly the opposite.

[wist43]

My position is pretty consistent... I have no problem with TT building primarily thru the draft; in fact, I'm an advocate of building thru the draft.

However, at some point you have to take your shots at difference makers... TT has fleshed out the middle of the roster pretty well, but where are the difference makers???

As I said, Jeremy Thompson and AJ Hawk, or Mario Williams??? Certainly, it would take more than a 4th rounder to move up to get a guy like that, but Williams has proven that he would have been worth giving up some choices... of course, TT would never have done that, and he never will do it. So we're stuck with guys like Thompson and Hawk...

So, AJ Hawk, Mike Montegomery, Johnny Jolly (who I like, if he can stay out of jail), Jeremy Thompson, etc... those are the guys we're going to win a championship with??? TT's philosophy says that if he has enough darts, he's bound to hit on some guys... where are those guys??? Just Jennings.

Does it say that TT lacks confidence to stick his neck out and go after a guy, and that he finds safety in numbers??? I don't know, but in the end, after 4 years, we're 6-10, the defense has been scrapped, the OL is still a mess, we need OT's, CB's, LB's, DL etc... tons of young guys on the roster, and tons of holes too.

As I've said, I'm the minority voice in the Green and Gold lovefest you guys have going on in here, but in the rest of Packer nation, TT is a pariah. Hell, 1250 even did a segment a few weeks ago talking about how TT has divided the Packer fan base... I find it somewhat interesting that there aren't more dissenting voices on here, but I suspect the homers on here drove most of those guys away during the 13-3 season - during which time I was predisposed with a messy divorce... In fact, I didn't even watch a single game that year... only snippets here and there.

Really can't explain why the views on this board are so one sided though... TT is a sub .500 GM, that's a fact; he drove off some good players and mishandled Favre, that's a fact; he missed on Harrell, and Hawk is what I feared, i.e. JAG, those are facts... not sure why there's so much love for TT in here.

[Bretsky]

Wist,

I'm with you more than you will think; I just don't have the energy to fight.
I agree that TT doesn't seem to be willing to take the risk to use all avenues
I'd also agree that his draft strategy of quantity will often recycle the bottom third of our roster
TT has a nice strategy to keep us decent for a long time; but is it really one to win a Super Bowl with ?

[sharpe1027]

My position is pretty consistent... I have no problem with TT building primarily thru the draft; in fact, I'm an advocate of building thru the draft.

Your position is consistent, the specific details of your reasoning shift as people poke holes in it. And yes, every GM builds through the draft.

However, at some point you have to take your shots at difference makers... TT has fleshed out the middle of the roster pretty well, but where are the difference makers???

Maybe. I think the Packers have players that are good enough to win, we'll see soon enough.

As I said, Jeremy Thompson and AJ Hawk, or Mario Williams??? Certainly, it would take more than a 4th rounder to move up to get a guy like that, but Williams has proven that he would have been worth giving up some choices... of course, TT would never have done that, and he never will do it. So we're stuck with guys like Thompson and Hawk...

Hindsight is 20/20. The facts remain that you can always find what-ifs looking back. You conveniently ignore all the other picks that fail and then try to compare two picks that do not have the benefit of hindsight and compare them to your ideal pick. You can do the same thing with any GM and make them look just as bad.

So, AJ Hawk, Mike Montegomery, Johnny Jolly (who I like, if he can stay out of jail), Jeremy Thompson, etc... those are the guys we're going to win a championship with??? TT's philosophy says that if he has enough darts, he's bound to hit on some guys... where are those guys??? Just Jennings.

How about Woodson? How about Pickett? How about Kampman? How about Rodgers? How about Collins? How about Jenkins? How about Driver? How about Grant?

Does it say that TT lacks confidence to stick his neck out and go after a guy, and that he finds safety in numbers???

No. It says the guys he liked were likely to be available at a lower position.

I don't know, but in the end, after 4 years, we're 6-10, the defense has been scrapped, the OL is still a mess, we need OT's, CB's, LB's, DL etc... tons of young guys on the roster, and tons of holes too.

You are a huge pessimist.

As I've said, I'm the minority voice in the Green and Gold lovefest you guys have going on in here, but in the rest of Packer nation, TT is a pariah.

Hell, 1250 even did a segment a few weeks ago talking about how TT has divided the Packer fan base...

He divided them how? Because of Favre? What specifically has he done that is so bad that Packer fans are divided and the sky is falling? Christ wist, what GM, player or coach hasn't had the Packer fan base divided at one point or another?

I find it somewhat interesting that there aren't more dissenting voices on here, but I suspect the homers on here drove most of those guys away during the 13-3 season - during which time I was predisposed with a messy divorce... In fact, I didn't even watch a single game that year... only snippets here and there.

Look, you are trying to prove the Packer organization will fail. When are you going to realize that you can't prove it. It is just your opinion, based upon a vague notion of 'difference makers' that sounds awful familiar...

Really can't explain why the views on this board are so one sided though...

You don't get it. You are trying to prove something that is unknowable. Maybe the Packers organization as it currently stands will not win a SB. Of course, maybe they will. You continue to preach and act as if what you say is irrefutable. Frankly, it is not much more than a generalized opinion based upon some rather loose ideas.

TT is a sub .500 GM, that's a fact; he drove off some good players and mishandled Favre, that's a fact; he missed on Harrell, and Hawk is what I feared, i.e. JAG, those are facts... not sure why there's so much love for TT in here.

Yep, sub .500 GM so far. But he is still only a year removed from going to the NFC championship game and there are plenty of reasons for last years performance, not the least of which is the loss of ah HoF QB.

Every GM drafts JAGs.

[wist43]

Wist,

I'm with you more than you will think; I just don't have the energy to fight.
I agree that TT doesn't seem to be willing to take the risk to use all avenues
I'd also agree that his draft strategy of quantity will often recycle the bottom third of our roster
TT has a nice strategy to keep us decent for a long time; but is it really one to win a Super Bowl with ?

You said it in brief better than I've been saying it at length... lol

[Rastak]

So, AJ Hawk, Mike Montegomery, Johnny Jolly (who I like, if he can stay out of jail), Jeremy Thompson, etc... those are the guys we're going to win a championship with??? TT's philosophy says that if he has enough darts, he's bound to hit on some guys... where are those guys??? Just Jennings.

How about Woodson? How about Pickett? How about Kampman? How about Rodgers? How about Collins? How about Jenkins? How about Driver? How about Grant?

Well, talking about TT here:

Woodson worked out great. Very good pickup.

Pickett was a good signing too, although didn't have a great year last year from what I read.

Kampman? TT had nothing to do with him.

Rodgers? Good pick, although considering where he got him compared with where he was projected not a completely unexpected move. It was against the grain though and looks to be a great pick.

Collins? One good year and a new defense coming up.

Jenkins? Looks good, but hurt alot.

Driver? TT has nothing to do with him.

Grant? Great year with Favre, OK year with Rodgers. I think most Packer fans want to see what year 3 shows. Jackson seemed to outplay him from what I read.

I don't know, but in the end, after 4 years, we're 6-10, the defense has been scrapped, the OL is still a mess, we need OT's, CB's, LB's, DL etc... tons of young guys on the roster, and tons of holes too.

You are a huge pessimist.

The fact remains, although you choose to ignore it.

I find it somewhat interesting that there aren't more dissenting voices on here, but I suspect the homers on here drove most of those guys away during the 13-3 season - during which time I was predisposed with a messy divorce... In fact, I didn't even watch a single game that year... only snippets here and there.

Look, you are trying to prove the Packer organization will fail. When are you going to realize that you can't prove it. It is just your opinion, based upon a vague notion of 'difference makers' that sounds awful familiar...

Completely agree, although you do seem to gloss over the overall record.

Really can't explain why the views on this board are so one sided though...

You don't get it. You are trying to prove something that is unknowable. Maybe the Packers organization as it currently stands will not win a SB. Of course, maybe they will. You continue to preach and act as if what you say is irrefutable. Frankly, it is not much more than a generalized opinion based upon some rather loose ideas.

In wists's defense, you claim the unknowable, that things are on the right track. 6-10? How can you know more than he does?

By the way, I am almost always optimistic with my team so I don't think your position is bad. Just realize your side isn;t for sure right either.

TT is a sub .500 GM, that's a fact; he drove off some good players and mishandled Favre, that's a fact; he missed on Harrell, and Hawk is what I feared, i.e. JAG, those are facts... not sure why there's so much love for TT in here.

Yep, sub .500 GM so far. But he is still only a year removed from going to the NFC championship game and there are plenty of reasons for last years performance, not the least of which is the loss of ah HoF QB.

A guy he friggen traded! The loss of a HF QB? You make it sound like he quit. (LOL, I mean later in the year.....)

[run pMc]

Other than the oddball picks I don't have too much trouble with TT's strategy. Most of the FA's are retreads or overpriced.
Canty is a decent player, but is he better than everyone on the defense such that he would be the highest player? 3-4 DE's are needed for the roster, but they aren't the playmakers...overpaying for a JAG-type of spot would make waves in the locker room and wreck the salary cap. You think Tramon and Collins wouldn't be paying attention?

I'd rather TT save the cap money to resign or extend GB's players -- Jennings, etc.

I agree with the post that all picks are both BPA and need picks.
I'd expect that TT drafts this way, but when looking at BPA/need he's looking at getting the best value. The guy's got an MBA for pete's sake, I'm sure he looks at the opportunity cost involved with picking a DT vs. a safety in R1 (or going the FA route). Some spots are harder to fill than others as you get later in the draft. If he can get a comparable quality of player at the same position with a lower pick (later round or via trade down), why wouldn't he?

The cost to sign a top-10 pick who might not pan out can be crippling. Too many people expect those picks to start on Day 1 and play like All-Pros. I wouldn't be surprised if TT traded down a few spots (DEN? PHI's R1 picks?).

Meh, whatever TT does will probably work out fine. I agree there are many positions that need upgrading or where the youngsters need to step up. GB lost a lot of close games last year (including 2 in OT), so maybe they aren't that far off. Time will tell.

[sharpe1027]

Pickett was a good signing too, although didn't have a great year last year from what I read.

He was still pretty good last year and was the best DT by far.

Kampman? TT had nothing to do with him.

Sorry, not true. The Packers choose to resign him and made sure there was the cap to do it.

Rodgers? Good pick, although considering where he got him compared with where he was projected not a completely unexpected move. It was against the grain though and looks to be a great pick.

So, if it is expected that effects the value of it somehow? Why bring that up at all? Doesn't seem relevant in the least...

Collins? One good year and a new defense coming up.

Yep, but he was a difference maker last year. Besides according to Wist it is a win now league, why should we care about the next year?

Jenkins? Looks good, but hurt alot.

Yep, but he was a difference maker when he played.

Driver? TT has nothing to do with him.

Same as Kampman

Grant? Great year with Favre, OK year with Rodgers. I think most Packer fans want to see what year 3 shows. Jackson seemed to outplay him from what I read.

Sure, I want to see what year 3 shows. No way Jackson outplayed him. Not even close. Jackson came in for spot duty at very favorable run downs, not first and ten when the line was stacked against him.

The fact remains, although you choose to ignore it.

Sorry, to spell it out more clearly, IMO, wist is overstating the condition of the roster. I won't quibble about whether an upgrade would be helpful, but saying almost ever position is a huge need is pessimistic.

Completely agree, although you do seem to gloss over the overall record.

In wists's defense, you claim the unknowable, that things are on the right track. 6-10? How can you know more than he does?

By the way, I am almost always optimistic with my team so I don't think your position is bad. Just realize your side isn;t for sure right either.

With all due respect, I never said they were on the right track. It seems you have the same proble as wist. You assume that you either have to hate TT or love the guy. Either he is ruining the team or he is a savior.

No.

A guy he friggen traded! The loss of a HF QB? You make it sound like he quit. (LOL, I mean later in the year.....)

A guy who did plenty to warrant the trade including demanding an outright release and doing everything he could to force a trade when he wasn't given special treatment. Please, there is no need to kick that decomposed horse.

[Guiness]

Rodgers? Good pick, although considering where he got him compared with where he was projected not a completely unexpected move. It was against the grain though and looks to be a great pick.

So, if it is expected that effects the value of it somehow? Why bring that up at all? Doesn't seem relevant in the least...

Rodgers certainly appears to be a great pick to me, and was a good move by TT. Sure, he was projected higher (whatever projected means) but plenty of other teams, many who had more QB needs than GB, passed on him. No one would've blinked if GB had passed and allowed him to continue to drop.

[packers11]

BUMP... A lot of teams interested in Sanchez... Could the #9 slot be the lucky spot were teams want to jump in front of SF?

pft.com

Will The Jets Trade Up To Land Sanchez?
Posted by Aaron Wilson on April 16, 2009, 11:05 a.m.

USC quarterback Mark Sanchez is rapidly becoming the wild card of the NFL Draft with projected destinations ranging throughout the top 15 picks.

Could the New York Jets be tempted to trade up for Sanchez to address their quarterback issue?

According to Rich Cimini of the New York Daily News, Sanchez is likely to be picked between the eighth and the 13th overall selections. With the Jets holding the 17th overall selection, they would likely need to move up to land him.

“If the Jets are convinced he’s the real deal, they could trade up for him,” Cimini writes.

Sanchez met with Jets team owner Woody Johnson and other team officials during the NFL owners meetings, and Sanchez was encouraged about a private workout he conducted with the AFC East franchise at his high school.

Besides Johnson, Sanchez has met with coach Rex Ryan, General Manager Mike Tannenbaum, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh.

“I think they were really impressed with everything that went on,” Sanchez said during a promotional tour for Sprint phones in New York earlier this week. “I think they got a great feel for me out of the helmet finally, to see what this kid is all about.

“It was great. I was very comfortable with them. I threw it really well I was spinning it all day … I knocked down all the throws. It was great.”

According to Sanchez, his agent has been talking with the Jets quite regularly since that workout

Mike Mayock of the NFL Network believes the Broncos are “crazy” if they don’t do what it takes to draft USC QB Mark Sanchez.

Sanchez Redskins’ Radar
Posted by Aaron Wilson on April 15, 2009, 4:26 p.m.

It’s no secret that Washington Redskins team owner Daniel Snyder has grown enamored of USC quarterback Mark Sanchez, according to Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post.

[chain_gang]

I still feel that the Broncos will be our trading partner if we trade down.
With the most likely scenario being Denver giving us their #12 pick and 3rd round they received from the Bears #84(pending Sanchez is on the board). I really like that idea trading down only 3 spots and picking up an extra 3rd rounder. We may have to swap picks with them in a late round, but I'd still do it. As is the TVC favors Green Bay a bit. We're giving up 1350 and receiving 1370 according to the chart, but like I said if Sanchez is there I don't think Denver would hesitate.

Another one with Denver could be their #18 and #48 pick in the 2nd for GB's #9, this one favors Denver a little. 1350 to 1320, but I think this is highly unlikely due to the fact that the Broncos wouldn't have a 2nd round pick then.


The first scenario I'm all in favor of. We'd only drop 3 spots, and the odds are greater that we could snag someone that fell out of the top 10.

[digitaldean]

Was reading on PFT earlier today that ALL of the top 10 teams reportedly were looking to trade down at one time or another.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/04/16/mayock-nfl-draft-is-lopsided/

This has got to be the final straw for the NFLPA. They need to get their heads out of the behinds and state they'll trade a rookie salary cap for some other owner concession. In no other profession, does a snot-nosed newbie first round pick make multiple times more than a proven veteran.

This situation will only get worse if nothing gets done.

As for the Packers trading down, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Packers trade down if Sanchez is still available for someone to trade up with us. If Thompson has Smith (Alabama) or Oher available if they still trade down a few slots, Ted would be all over that. If he does that and a BPA like Crabtree is there, I'd seriously cringe at that.

Since they are not real players in FA, TT has to get his first round pick to make absolute contributions NOW. Otherwise, another Justin Harrell debacle will help grease the skids out of town if the Packers don't make the playoffs.

[Guiness]

Didn't most people consider Smith to be the best of the bunch, until he "lost focus"?

Yes, I think he was widely considered the top OT prospect, so was expected to go #2 at the lowest.

I commented in another thread how much money he 'gave' to the other Smith.