Excellent Analysis on Rodgers

[mraynrand]

Brett Favre put up MVP numbers his 4th year with all the TD passes, and finally started his streak of winning the award his 5th year.

Brett Favre in year 4: 90.7 passer rating, 62.4 comp%, 3882 passing yards, 6.7 y/a, 33 TDs, 14 ints, 202 rushing yds, 2 rushing TDs, 31 sacks

Aaron Rodgers in year 4: 93.7 passer rating, 63.6 comp%, 4038 passing yards, 7.5 y/a, 28 TDs, 13 ints, 207 rushing yds, 4 rushing TDs, 34 sacks

Pretty damn similar. Favre went 9-7. Rodgers was two missed Crosby FGs from going 8-8--not to mention the 5 blown leads in the final 5 minutes.

You don't remember this, but after 3 years, Packer nation was divided on Brett Favre. Early in his 4th year, probably a majority of Packer fans wanted him benched for Mark Brunell. Midway through his fourth year, the light went off. He put together a season that was similar to what Rodgers did in 2008. Until then, nobody had any reason to think Favre would be a Hall of Fame QB. Hell, most didn't even want him starting for the Packers.

It's still a bit apples and oranges, as has been said repeatedly, because of the difference in real on field experience. Look at Matt Hasselbeck - two years on the pine in GB followed by two rather pedestrian years on the field for Seattle. Then, in his fifth year - boom goes the dynamite. Again, it's that consistent pattern. Partial at least seems to have the number of years correct. 4 years in the league appears to be the normal experience required to reach the top efficiency for a QB. Rodgers had to wait a little longer sitting on the pine than most so it will likely take another year or so to see his best on the field.

[Bossman641]

Brett Favre put up MVP numbers his 4th year with all the TD passes, and finally started his streak of winning the award his 5th year.

Brett Favre in year 4: 90.7 passer rating, 62.4 comp%, 3882 passing yards, 6.7 y/a, 33 TDs, 14 ints, 202 rushing yds, 2 rushing TDs, 31 sacks

Aaron Rodgers in year 4: 93.7 passer rating, 63.6 comp%, 4038 passing yards, 7.5 y/a, 28 TDs, 13 ints, 207 rushing yds, 4 rushing TDs, 34 sacks

Pretty damn similar. Favre went 9-7. Rodgers was two missed Crosby FGs from going 8-8--not to mention the 5 blown leads in the final 5 minutes.

You don't remember this, but after 3 years, Packer nation was divided on Brett Favre. Early in his 4th year, probably a majority of Packer fans wanted him benched for Mark Brunell. Midway through his fourth year, the light went off. He put together a season that was similar to what Rodgers did in 2008. Until then, nobody had any reason to think Favre would be a Hall of Fame QB. Hell, most didn't even want him starting for the Packers.

I don't remember that. Too young.

Like I said, Favre and Rodgers both had good statistical years and were slightly above average quarterbacks then.
Here's hoping Rodgers improves. He's a smart guy, and now a big physical athlete of one. Favre was a dumb guy, but a good athlete.

We'll see. I sincerely believe that Rodgers won't improve as much as many people think.

So putting up MVP numbers is "slightly above average?" I know your definition of average is ridiculous, something like QB's 4-29 are average, but aren't you contradicting yourself?

[Patler]

I don't think "years in the league" and years starting are the same either. Maybe the light went off for Favre and many others sometime around their fourth year, but for Favre that was his third year as a starter. Four years with 40+ starts is different than four years and just 16 starts.

The example others have given of Hasselbeck is excellent. He was in GB for three seasons, and showed great potential in the last two preseasons. Went to Seattle to start his fourth season. He struggled for several years, and even lost his job as the starter for a while. Why? Not because of talent. Not because of "experience in the league", he had the same then as Rodgers did before 2008. Hasselbeck himself said he struggled at letting the game slow down and come to him. It took a lot of playing time for that to happen.

[sheepshead]

I hope Arod is all pro and wins MVP and shuts this guy up for a while---geeeez.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Can we just kill this thread? I mean what's the damn point any more?

[cpk1994]

I hope Arod is all pro and wins MVP and shuts this guy up for a while---geeeez.

It won't shut Partial up. He will do what he continues to do, find a new argument to bash Rodgers with. It doesn't matter how many times he is made to look like an idiot. He will just make a new argument why Rodgers sucks.

[Partial]

Since when does "Average to above average" or "12th best in the league" equate to suck, exactly?

[cheesner]

Since when does "Average to above average" or "12th best in the league" equate to suck, exactly?

When does it equate to MVP numbers?

Brett Favre put up MVP numbers his 4th year with all the TD passes, and finally started his streak of winning the award his 5th year.

Brett Favre in year 4: 90.7 passer rating, 62.4 comp%, 3882 passing yards, 6.7 y/a, 33 TDs, 14 ints, 202 rushing yds, 2 rushing TDs, 31 sacks

Aaron Rodgers in year 4: 93.7 passer rating, 63.6 comp%, 4038 passing yards, 7.5 y/a, 28 TDs, 13 ints, 207 rushing yds, 4 rushing TDs, 34 sacks

Pretty damn similar. Favre went 9-7. Rodgers was two missed Crosby FGs from going 8-8--not to mention the 5 blown leads in the final 5 minutes.

. . . .

Like I said, Favre and Rodgers both had good statistical years and were slightly above average quarterbacks then.

[Gunakor]

Since when does "Average to above average" or "12th best in the league" equate to suck, exactly?

When does it equate to MVP numbers?

Brett Favre put up MVP numbers his 4th year with all the TD passes, and finally started his streak of winning the award his 5th year.

Brett Favre in year 4: 90.7 passer rating, 62.4 comp%, 3882 passing yards, 6.7 y/a, 33 TDs, 14 ints, 202 rushing yds, 2 rushing TDs, 31 sacks

Aaron Rodgers in year 4: 93.7 passer rating, 63.6 comp%, 4038 passing yards, 7.5 y/a, 28 TDs, 13 ints, 207 rushing yds, 4 rushing TDs, 34 sacks

Pretty damn similar. Favre went 9-7. Rodgers was two missed Crosby FGs from going 8-8--not to mention the 5 blown leads in the final 5 minutes.

. . . .

Like I said, Favre and Rodgers both had good statistical years and were slightly above average quarterbacks then.

Truth is the game has changed quite a bit from back in 1994. There are so many QB's who are continually rasing the bar. Now that Brady has thrown 50TD's in a season and Manning 49, 35 TD's looks average. 3800 yards is nothing anymore. What won MVP 10 years ago wouldn't even earn you a starting spot in the Pro Bowl anymore in either conference.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Truth is the game has changed quite a bit from back in 1994. There are so many QB's who are continually rasing the bar. Now that Brady has thrown 50TD's in a season and Manning 49, 35 TD's looks average. 3800 yards is nothing anymore. What won MVP 10 years ago wouldn't even earn you a starting spot in the Pro Bowl anymore in either conference.

I think you are overstating the difference between 1994 and now. Maybe 1984 or 1974. However, passing yards are pretty similar. In 1994, 18 of 28 teams averaged 200 passing yards/game. In 2009, 17 of 32 teams averaged that. In 1994, three QBs had 30+ passing TDs. Same in 2009. In 1994, three QBs had 4000 passing yards. In 2009, it was six QBs, but three QBs barely hit the threshold in 2009 while one just missed the threshold in 1994. Just because a few guys have had record breaking seasons doesn't mean the overall game has changed that dramatically.

BTW, in 1974 only one team averaged over 200 passing yards/game. Washington led the league at 200.1 passing yards/game.

[Partial]

Since when does "Average to above average" or "12th best in the league" equate to suck, exactly?

When does it equate to MVP numbers?

Brett Favre put up MVP numbers his 4th year with all the TD passes, and finally started his streak of winning the award his 5th year.

Brett Favre in year 4: 90.7 passer rating, 62.4 comp%, 3882 passing yards, 6.7 y/a, 33 TDs, 14 ints, 202 rushing yds, 2 rushing TDs, 31 sacks

Aaron Rodgers in year 4: 93.7 passer rating, 63.6 comp%, 4038 passing yards, 7.5 y/a, 28 TDs, 13 ints, 207 rushing yds, 4 rushing TDs, 34 sacks

Pretty damn similar. Favre went 9-7. Rodgers was two missed Crosby FGs from going 8-8--not to mention the 5 blown leads in the final 5 minutes.

. . . .

Like I said, Favre and Rodgers both had good statistical years and were slightly above average quarterbacks then.

I was incorrect about Favre's 1994 numbers... 1995 is when he really started tearing it up..

Game changing: Yep, definitely. We've seen rules come around to favor the offense and the higher scoring games to promote ratings. Brady's year was all time, though, and 35 TDs is still unreal and wicked good!

[Gunakor]

Truth is the game has changed quite a bit from back in 1994. There are so many QB's who are continually rasing the bar. Now that Brady has thrown 50TD's in a season and Manning 49, 35 TD's looks average. 3800 yards is nothing anymore. What won MVP 10 years ago wouldn't even earn you a starting spot in the Pro Bowl anymore in either conference.

I think you are overstating the difference between 1994 and now. Maybe 1984 or 1974. However, passing yards are pretty similar. In 1994, 18 of 28 teams averaged 200 passing yards/game. In 2009, 17 of 32 teams averaged that. In 1994, three QBs had 30+ passing TDs. Same in 2009. In 1994, three QBs had 4000 passing yards. In 2009, it was six QBs, but three QBs barely hit the threshold in 2009 while one just missed the threshold in 1994. Just because a few guys have had record breaking seasons doesn't mean the overall game has changed that dramatically.

BTW, in 1974 only one team averaged over 200 passing yards/game. Washington led the league at 200.1 passing yards/game.

Forget about team comparisons. Favre had approximately 3800 yards and 33 TD's in 1994. Where would that rank him compared to today's quarterbacks? Because back then those kind of numbers made you eligible for the MVP race. As I said, now it doesn't even earn you a starting spot in the Pro Bowl in either the AFC or the NFC. You'd be lucky to even get an invite with those numbers if playing in the AFC. Obviously something changed.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Forget about team comparisons. Favre had approximately 3800 yards and 33 TD's in 1994. Where would that rank him compared to today's quarterbacks? Because back then those kind of numbers made you eligible for the MVP race. As I said, now it doesn't even earn you a starting spot in the Pro Bowl in either the AFC or the NFC. You'd be lucky to even get an invite with those numbers if playing in the AFC. Obviously something changed.

Favre's 3882 passing yards were 5th in the NFL in 1994. It would have ranked him 8th in 2009.

Favre's 33 TDs were 2nd in the NFL in 1994. In 2009, it would have ranked him 3rd, but just one behind the co-leaders (Brees and Rivers each had 34).

I think 1994-1995 were the two years where you saw passing really change.

In 1993, only two QBs threw for more than 3500 yards.
In 1994, seven QBs threw for more than 3700 yards.
In 1995, ten QBs threw for more than 3800 yards.

In 1993, only three QBs threw 22+ TDs.
In 1994, seven QBs threw 22+ TDs.
In 1995, nine QBs threw 24+ TDs.

[Gunakor]

Forget about team comparisons. Favre had approximately 3800 yards and 33 TD's in 1994. Where would that rank him compared to today's quarterbacks? Because back then those kind of numbers made you eligible for the MVP race. As I said, now it doesn't even earn you a starting spot in the Pro Bowl in either the AFC or the NFC. You'd be lucky to even get an invite with those numbers if playing in the AFC. Obviously something changed.

Favre's 3882 passing yards were 5th in the NFL in 1994. It would have ranked him 8th in 2009.

Favre's 33 TDs were 2nd in the NFL in 1994. In 2009, it would have ranked him 3rd, but just one behind the co-leaders (Brees and Rivers each had 34).

I think 1994-1995 were the two years where you saw passing really change.

In 1993, only two QBs threw for more than 3500 yards.
In 1994, seven QBs threw for more than 3700 yards.
In 1995, ten QBs threw for more than 3800 yards.

In 1993, only three QBs threw 22+ TDs.
In 1994, seven QBs threw 22+ TDs.
In 1995, nine QBs threw 24+ TDs.

Ah, you're right. And also that this year was a fairly down year for QB's in comparison to the recent past, especially regarding TD's. 34 being the top total in the league really doesn't seem to be all that much. I'd imagine that will pick up again this year, with Brady coming back and Manning starting the year healthy and Brees presumably having all of his weapons back to health.

[Fritz]

Johnny Unitas rocked.