Pickett at DE / Pickett gone after a year

[Gunakor]

If he's the backup NT, not a starting NT or DE, then he's only seeing 5-10 snaps per game.

You think a backup NT only plays 5-10 snaps per game? Seriously?

Yeah, I do. I expect Raji in on first and second down every time. Every last time, if he's healthy. How many opportunities do you think that leaves for his backup? Pickett would be in with Raji in nickel as the 2 interior down linemen, but he'd come back off in dime since he's not much of a pass rusher. So I don't expect him to be in for every 3rd down even.

IF he can play DE - and that's a HUGE if - he might see the field enough to warrant the money he's making. But if he can't, he won't see the field very much at all. Barring injury, of course.

DTs and NTs need to be rotated in to keep them fresh. Backups play about 35-40% of the snaps or so and that equates to about 22-25 plays per game. You can't just make blanket statements about when Raji and Pickett will be in as it never works out that way. To think that Pickett will only see the field for 5-10 snaps is a ridiculous statement.

That's funny, considering NT's are only on the field for 60% of the total defensive snaps to begin with. If they split time evenly, the backup is on the field for 30% of the total defensive snaps. But they won't split time evenly. Raji is the better talent, better physical specimen with bigger upside. He's the starter and will see the majority of the snaps.

If they split time at NT, I'd imagine it'll be closer to 70-30 in favor of Raji. That leaves around 10-15 snaps for Pickett at NT, around 30-35% of the 35-40 or so snaps I expect the NT to be on the field for overall. 5 snaps is a bit low, I concede that. But it won't be a whole lot more than 10 if he's not the starter.

[Patler]

I think you are all missing the point. I am every bit as concerned with how much money our backup NT is making as I am that we have a servicable backup NT. I think we can find a servicable backup NT for half of what Pickett is making.

As was mentioned earlier, Pickett stands to make around 5 million per year in FA when his contract expires. If Pickett is just a rotational player, is he worth that much money? Why pay Pickett like a starter if he's not starting? Or is everyone so certain that Pickett will remain a starter?

If Raji wins the starting job, offer Pickett a healthy backup's salary. Something like 2.5 million per, maybe with incentives on top of it in case Raji misses a large chunk of time and Pickett is asked to play full time. If he accepts, great to have him still. If he feels he can still be a regular starter for someone and make a starters salary, let him go get that money from someone else. Draft or sign a new backup NT next offseason at an appropriate salary for the job he's asked to do.

No, I get that completely, and I would be willing to pay Pickett that much if he is good enough. NT is important, and I would be happy to pay for two high quality ones while saving somewhere else with younger, less expensive players.

$5 million won't be all that much when the average salary will be above $2 million.

[Patler]

NT's are only on the field for 60% of the total defensive snaps to begin with. If they split time evenly, the backup is on the field for 30% of the total defensive snaps. But they won't split time evenly. Raji is the better talent, better physical specimen with bigger upside. He's the starter and will see the majority of the snaps.

If they split time at NT, I'd imagine it'll be closer to 70-30 in favor of Raji. That leaves around 10-15 snaps for Pickett at NT, around 30-35% of the 35-40 or so snaps I expect the NT to be on the field for overall. 5 snaps is a bit low, I concede that. But it won't be a whole lot more than 10 if he's not the starter.

That's where I think you are wrong, because I don't think Raji will play only the "nose tackle snaps". I think he will be on the field when GB is in a 4-3, and for some passing downs as well, which means Pickett will get more of the pure 3-4 snaps in base formations. I would expect at least one of them to be on the field for most downs, and occasionally both at the same time. On 3rd and very long, or in prevent defenses neither might be there, but not all that many downs would be without either one.

[pbmax]

Pickett will not be the first choice for the DT slot opposite Raji on passing downs. As it has in years past, that position will go to Jenkins. Pickett may get some snaps in that formation, but he won't be the first choice.

[Gunakor]

NT's are only on the field for 60% of the total defensive snaps to begin with. If they split time evenly, the backup is on the field for 30% of the total defensive snaps. But they won't split time evenly. Raji is the better talent, better physical specimen with bigger upside. He's the starter and will see the majority of the snaps.

If they split time at NT, I'd imagine it'll be closer to 70-30 in favor of Raji. That leaves around 10-15 snaps for Pickett at NT, around 30-35% of the 35-40 or so snaps I expect the NT to be on the field for overall. 5 snaps is a bit low, I concede that. But it won't be a whole lot more than 10 if he's not the starter.

That's where I think you are wrong, because I don't think Raji will play only the "nose tackle snaps". I think he will be on the field when GB is in a 4-3, and for some passing downs as well, which means Pickett will get more of the pure 3-4 snaps in base formations. I would expect at least one of them to be on the field for most downs, and occasionally both at the same time. On 3rd and very long, or in prevent defenses neither might be there, but not all that many downs would be without either one.

Looking down the road, though, I do think Raji will play the majority of the nose tackle snaps. Pickett isn't going anywhere this year regardless, we were talking about the need to resign him at the end of his contract. So, looking a couple seasons ahead, do you still see Pickett getting more snaps in base 3-4? I couldn't imagine that being the case.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to have him this season. I just feel his value to us only goes down after this year.

[bobblehead]

I love april, when all rookies are going to start and have an impact.

[Patler]

Looking down the road, though, I do think Raji will play the majority of the nose tackle snaps. Pickett isn't going anywhere this year regardless, we were talking about the need to resign him at the end of his contract. So, looking a couple seasons ahead, do you still see Pickett getting more snaps in base 3-4? I couldn't imagine that being the case.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to have him this season. I just feel his value to us only goes down after this year.

Pickett is a good DT, whether he is as good at NT remains to be seen. I think it will be easy to find 20-30 snaps a game for him in situations both with and without Raji on the field, and hopefully Raji will get more. Besides, on 3rd and short or in goal line situations wouldn't the two of them side-by-side look darn good?

[Gunakor]

I love april, when all rookies are going to start and have an impact.

This year it's a hope. Next year, at least in the case of Raji and Matthews, it becomes more of an expectation.

[Patler]

Pickett will not be the first choice for the DT slot opposite Raji on passing downs. As it has in years past, that position will go to Jenkins. Pickett may get some snaps in that formation, but he won't be the first choice.

I agree, but in running situations, or even in some base situations if the Packers go with a 4-3 once in a while, both could be there.

[Gunakor]

Looking down the road, though, I do think Raji will play the majority of the nose tackle snaps. Pickett isn't going anywhere this year regardless, we were talking about the need to resign him at the end of his contract. So, looking a couple seasons ahead, do you still see Pickett getting more snaps in base 3-4? I couldn't imagine that being the case.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to have him this season. I just feel his value to us only goes down after this year.

Pickett is a good DT, whether he is as good at NT remains to be seen. I think it will be easy to find 20-30 snaps a game for him in situations both with and without Raji on the field, and hopefully Raji will get more. Besides, on 3rd and short or in goal line situations wouldn't the two of them side-by-side look darn good?

Sure, provided Pickett is still a reliable DT a couple years from now. But if he isn't in for the base 3-4, he's a situational player. Situational players aren't worth 5 million dollars per season IMO, no matter how good they are.

It reminds me KGB getting his massive contract extension. Save 2007, his production went down afterwards. He became a situational player after the fact. If we know that Pickett is going to be a situational player before offering a contract extension, why spend that much on him?

I guess the difference is that, after this season, I expect Pickett to be a situational player only in our defense. I am not as high on him in our new defense as most here. I don't mind having him, but don't think he's worth 5 million dollars per season to us.

[Lurker64]

I really think that expecting Raji to start over Pickett is really unreasonable. Pickett is a significantly better 2-gap player (and hence run stopper) at this point since Raji, like all DTs who come out of college, has trouble playing his gap instead of his man. Pickett has more experience playing in the A-gap than Raji, and is significantly better against a double team. With experience and NFL coaching, Raji could be outstanding at all these things, but as a rookie he's an unfinished project. I very much see Pickett over Raji in all run-downs, at least early in the season.

[Gunakor]

I really think that expecting Raji to start over Pickett is really unreasonable. Pickett is a significantly better 2-gap player (and hence run stopper) at this point since Raji, like all DTs who come out of college, has trouble playing his gap instead of his man. Pickett has more experience playing in the A-gap than Raji, and is significantly better against a double team. With experience and NFL coaching, Raji could be outstanding at all these things, but as a rookie he's an unfinished project. I very much see Pickett over Raji in all run-downs, at least early in the season.

I expect to see at least as much of Pickett as I do Raji this year. I've said that. This year isn't what I'm talking about, as Pickett isn't going anywhere this year anyway. Forget about this year.

When Pickett's contract expires, and he's due for an extension or FA, things will be different I expect. The question is, if he isn't starting at that time, do we resign him to a new 5 million per year contract?

[Patler]

Sure, provided Pickett is still a reliable DT a couple years from now. But if he isn't in for the base 3-4, he's a situational player. Situational players aren't worth 5 million dollars per season IMO, no matter how good they are.

It reminds me KGB getting his massive contract extension. Save 2007, his production went down afterwards. He became a situational player after the fact. If we know that Pickett is going to be a situational player before offering a contract extension, why spend that much on him?

I guess the difference is that, after this season, I expect Pickett to be a situational player only in our defense. I am not as high on him in our new defense as most here. I don't mind having him, but don't think he's worth 5 million dollars per season to us.

If he isn't reliable anymore there is nothing to discuss; however, I seen no reason for him to disappear after 2009. There are a lot of old DTs that play very well, even after careers with a lot more injuries than Pickett has had. he has been quite reliable, actually.

Even if Raji becomes the better NT of the two, and even if Raji becomes a star, I can still envision a scenario in which Pickett is a lot more than just a "role player". First, Raji will not play 100% of the snaps in the 3-4. Second, there will be 4 man fronts in which both will be in. MM seems to think that there may even be 3-4 situations in which both could be in. (That will surprise me if it is more than just a few.)

The Packers could carry just 6 or 7 DLs. There will be plenty of snaps for all of them. I think Pickett could very well earn his salary even if Raji becomes a star. With the cap at about $130 million, or no cap at all, $5 million to Pickett can be handled easily, if Pickett remains as capable as he has been.

[Gunakor]

Sure, provided Pickett is still a reliable DT a couple years from now. But if he isn't in for the base 3-4, he's a situational player. Situational players aren't worth 5 million dollars per season IMO, no matter how good they are.

It reminds me KGB getting his massive contract extension. Save 2007, his production went down afterwards. He became a situational player after the fact. If we know that Pickett is going to be a situational player before offering a contract extension, why spend that much on him?

I guess the difference is that, after this season, I expect Pickett to be a situational player only in our defense. I am not as high on him in our new defense as most here. I don't mind having him, but don't think he's worth 5 million dollars per season to us.

If he isn't reliable anymore there is nothing to discuss; however, I seen no reason for him to disappear after 2009. There are a lot of old DTs that play very well, even after careers with a lot more injuries than Pickett has had. he has been quite reliable, actually.

Even if Raji becomes the better NT of the two, and even if Raji becomes a star, I can still envision a scenario in which Pickett is a lot more than just a "role player". First, Raji will not play 100% of the snaps in the 3-4. Second, there will be 4 man fronts in which both will be in. MM seems to think that there may even be 3-4 situations in which both could be in. (That will surprise me if it is more than just a few.)

The Packers could carry just 6 or 7 DLs. There will be plenty of snaps for all of them. I think Pickett could very well earn his salary even if Raji becomes a star. With the cap at about $130 million, or no cap at all, $5 million to Pickett can be handled easily, if Pickett remains as capable as he has been.

You could be right, of course.

I guess I just don't see Pickett playing a major part in this defense in a couple years. I don't think that highly of him in a 3-4 except as a NT, but I can see him in short yardage/goal line situations. I don't see him playing in the nickel. I really don't think he'll be on the field as much as you think he's going to be in just a few year's time. I see the number of 4-3 looks decreasing over time as well, taking away even more opportunity for him to contribute.

But we shall see. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

[Patler]

I guess I just don't see Pickett playing a major part in this defense in a couple years. I don't think that highly of him in a 3-4 except as a NT, but I can see him in short yardage/goal line situations. I don't see him playing in the nickel. I really don't think he'll be on the field as much as you think he's going to be in just a few year's time. I see the number of 4-3 looks decreasing over time as well, taking away even more opportunity for him to contribute.

Out of curiosity to define our differing views about this, how any downs/game do you expect Raji to play when the Packers are fully committed as a 3-4 team, and how many do you think the Packers will line up for without either Raji or his NT backup? How will they line up for those downs when neither are in?

If Harrell can get healthy, Jenkins can stay healthy, and Jolly can stay out of jail; the group of Pickett, Raji, Jenkins, Jolly, Harrell, someone 1 and someone 2 could be a very good rotation for all situations, yet use only 7 roster spots to do it. You might even be able to eliminate "someone 2" and do it with just 6 players.