Nelson or Jones

[Scott Campbell]

Last year Jennings' drop rate was 6.52% of the balls thrown to him, Jones' was 13.8% of the balls thrown to him. Last year James caught 69.0% of the passes Aaron threw to him, Greg caught 60.6% of the passes Aaron threw to him. You decide which is more important to the team. This trend held true in 2007 too, Jones led the WR's in catch %.

Isn't this misleading if you aren't taking into consideration where the catches are being made (e.g. did Jennings have a bigger percentage of deep balls thrown his way, where you'd expect the catch % to be lower)?

I think Jennings presents a bit smaller target. And I think Waldo is making the case that Jones body control allows him to get his hands on a greater number of poorly thrown balls. I buy that.

I can't help thinking about Jones and the 2 fumbles against the Bears in 07. He's got to get that under control.

[Waldo]

Last year Jennings' drop rate was 6.52% of the balls thrown to him, Jones' was 13.8% of the balls thrown to him. Last year James caught 69.0% of the passes Aaron threw to him, Greg caught 60.6% of the passes Aaron threw to him. You decide which is more important to the team. This trend held true in 2007 too, Jones led the WR's in catch %.

Isn't this misleading if you aren't taking into consideration where the catches are being made (e.g. did Jennings have a bigger percentage of deep balls thrown his way, where you'd expect the catch % to be lower)?

Sure, I guess it is a little, Jones catches a fair # of deep balls too though. Greg is OK at catching passes, but he drops a few and isn't a "tough catch" guy. If the QB throws a ball to Greg that is darn near uncatchable, Greg won't catch it. I don't know that there is a Packer fan that would argue otherwise.

Perhaps Jordy is a better example. Ultra low drop rate. He worked the same area of the field that Jones often does (actually more underneath, Jones' YPR was identical to Driver's in '08 and darn close in '07, Jordy's was lower) Jones' catch % was 69.0% in '08, Jordy's was 62.3%.

[Waldo]

I can't help thinking about Jones and the 2 fumbles against the Bears in 07. He's got to get that under control.

He's fumbled 3 balls in his career and lost 2 of them, both in the same game. It isn't like they were dropped, they were ripped from his arms by the best DB in the NFL at ripping balls from guys arms.

I just can't buy that something is a problem that occurred in a small part (a quarter) of one game, during a guys rookie year. He's played in about 100 quarters of professional football, and fumbled twice in one quarter, within 3:40 on the clock of each other.

Fans latch on to one bad thing like an obsession. Jones could go through his whole career and never fumble again, 5 years from now people would still be harping on his fumbling problem. He had a bad 5 minutes thanks to Peanut.

It isn't just body control. It isn't always easy for WR's to find the football. Jones is really good at this, and being able to project the landing spot of a ball just leaving the QB's hands.

[Scott Campbell]

Fans latch on to one bad thing like an obsession.

Understandably - it was against the Bears, and his poor play single-handedly took them out of that game IMO. After that happened, he didn't seem to be the same player. And his number seemed to get called much less. And then he spent most of last year dinged up.

IMO, he still hasn't fully rebounded from that one outing.

[Scott Campbell]

Sure, I guess it is a little, Jones catches a fair # of deep balls too though. Greg is OK at catching passes, but he drops a few and isn't a "tough catch" guy. If the QB throws a ball to Greg that is darn near uncatchable, Greg won't catch it. I don't know that there is a Packer fan that would argue otherwise.

Perhaps Jordy is a better example. Ultra low drop rate. He worked the same area of the field that Jones often does (actually more underneath, Jones' YPR was identical to Driver's in '08 and darn close in '07, Jordy's was lower) Jones' catch % was 69.0% in '08, Jordy's was 62.3%.

I agree on Jennings. He seems to routinely get great separation.

[Waldo]

Fans latch on to one bad thing like an obsession.

Understandably - it was against the Bears, and his poor play single-handedly took them out of that game IMO. After that happened, he didn't seem to be the same player. And his number seemed to get called much less. And then he spent most of last year dinged up.

IMO, he still hasn't fully rebounded from that one outing.

Drive 1 - GB TD (7-0)
Drive 2 - Chi Punt
Drive 3 - Jones Fumble
Drive 4 - Chi Punt
Drive 5 - Jones Fumble
---end of Q1---
Drive 6 - Chi Punt
Drive 7 - GB Punt
Drive 8 - Bears TD (7-7)

Play by play

Saying Jones "single handedly took them out of the game" is a bit of a stretch. GB led through both of them, Chi got zero points off of them, and GB had another chance after both of them before Chicago had a drive that put points on the board.

GB was up 17-7 at the half. GB did nothing in the second half and let Chicago put 20 on the board, with Brett throwing 2 interceptions in the second half, including one that hit Urlacher in the numbers with no WR in the area.

[Scott Campbell]

Saying Jones "single handedly took them out of the game" is a bit of a stretch.

That's why I said IMO.

[CaptainKickass]

So after reading all of this, and recalling the games...

I'm still undecided as to which player I like better.

Seems like it's one of those "happy problems" where you have 2 very qualified guys with slightly different strengths battling for the same position. Oh woe is the Pack for having such a problem.

I'm pretty damn sure it will sort itself out this season. Either by performance or "other".


.

[sharpe1027]

Last year Jennings' drop rate was 6.52% of the balls thrown to him, Jones' was 13.8% of the balls thrown to him. Last year James caught 69.0% of the passes Aaron threw to him, Greg caught 60.6% of the passes Aaron threw to him. You decide which is more important to the team. This trend held true in 2007 too, Jones led the WR's in catch %.

I am a Jones fan, but I am not sure I buy this entirely. It would seem that many factors that have little to do with the WR go into that stat. Did they play the same positions, come in during the same situations or run similiar routes? I would think that all of those factors contribute as much or more than Jones' ability to get to badly-thrown balls.

I would also say that Jennings has quicker feet than Jones. So given the same off-the-mark pass, Jones may have to stretch and make an outstanding catch when Jennings could get himself into position and make the catch look relatively ordinary.

That being said, I have to agree that what I saw on the field was Jones consistently making plays that threaten the defense, whereas Nelson's catches were more mundane plays.

[Waldo]

Last year Jennings' drop rate was 6.52% of the balls thrown to him, Jones' was 13.8% of the balls thrown to him. Last year James caught 69.0% of the passes Aaron threw to him, Greg caught 60.6% of the passes Aaron threw to him. You decide which is more important to the team. This trend held true in 2007 too, Jones led the WR's in catch %.

I am a Jones fan, but I am not sure I buy this entirely.

If you don't than why are you a Jones fan? It is by far his best trait, the one thing that he is truly elite at. The guy can catch garbage, stuff that none of our other WR's have a chance to catch.

Like I said:

Perhaps Jordy is a better example. Ultra low drop rate. He worked the same area of the field that Jones often does (actually more underneath, Jones' YPR was identical to Driver's in '08 and darn close in '07, Jordy's was lower), Jones' catch % was 69.0% in '08, Jordy's was 62.3%.

[Scott Campbell]

...........whereas Nelson's catches were more mundane plays.

They were mundane plays, but not necessarily mundane situations. I'll leave it to the stat guys to correct me, but it seemed that Jordy was a frequent 3rd down target. Moving the chains may not be sexy, but it's critical to sustaining drives.

[sharpe1027]

If you don't than why are you a Jones fan? It is by far his best trait, the one thing that he is truly elite at. The guy can catch garbage, stuff that none of our other WR's have a chance to catch.

Like I said:

Perhaps Jordy is a better example. Ultra low drop rate. He worked the same area of the field that Jones often does (actually more underneath, Jones' YPR was identical to Driver's in '08 and darn close in '07, Jordy's was lower), Jones' catch % was 69.0% in '08, Jordy's was 62.3%.

Meh, I like him for the reasons I said, he threatens the defense more with big plays getting open downfield or making a play with the ball in his hand. I disagree that his garbage catching is necessarily his best trait, but I think you are perfectly reasonable to believe it is. Perhaps, though, you can see my point that it is also reasonable to believe that it is not, far and way, his best trait.

I guess my point is this. I think that the stat is simply too weakly correlated to prove or disprove your point, i.e., there too many variables unaccounted for to claim that all things being equal, Jones would catch more balls. If my math is correct, two bad passes by Rodgers last year would have resulted in Jones also being at 62%. Moreover, it could be any combination of bad passes, wrong routes, great defensive plays or other things I can't think of right now. Odds are, all things were probably not equal.

I realize you made some general observations about routes and such, but we are talking about a difference of only two passes. Maybe those two passes were the result of Jones making great plays on the ball where Nelson would not have; however, maybe it was just a better pass by Rodgers.

[sharpe1027]

...........whereas Nelson's catches were more mundane plays.

They were mundane plays, but not necessarily mundane situations. I'll leave it to the stat guys to correct me, but it seemed that Jordy was a frequent 3rd down target. Moving the chains may not be sexy, but it's critical to sustaining drives.

Absolutely. IMO, the big question is whether or not you believe that had Jones been given the same oppurtunity, he would have made those 3rd down plays. If so, Jones should be the clear choice. If not, then you have two complimentary players, but not a single complete player.

[Scott Campbell]

...........whereas Nelson's catches were more mundane plays.

They were mundane plays, but not necessarily mundane situations. I'll leave it to the stat guys to correct me, but it seemed that Jordy was a frequent 3rd down target. Moving the chains may not be sexy, but it's critical to sustaining drives.

Absolutely. IMO, the big question is whether or not you believe that had Jones been given the same oppurtunity, he would have made those 3rd down plays. If so, Jones should be the clear choice. If not, then you have two complimentary players, but not a single complete player.

I got the impression that Jordy's play kept Jones from being able to get back on the field much.

[Patler]

Jones and Nelson will be receivers "3a" and "3b". If both are healthy, I don't expect either one to separate himself form the other. Each will be the third receiver in some situations.