And you all thought Ryan Grant sucked...

[pbmax]

67 carries - 337 yards against St. Louis, Detroit & Cleveland

41 carries - 158 yards again Chicago, Cincinatti, & Minnesota.

So what that tells me is Grant is good against poor teams, and average to below average against good teams.

Numbers don't always tell you the real truth...unless you break it down like this.

41 for 158 is a 3.85 yard per carry average. I think its more the number of attempts against these good teams that worries me. That's an average of just under 14 a game.

I have become convinced that McCarthy is not going to change his run calling strategy. He is going to run a certain percentage for each down and distance situation. And if its 3rd and medium or longer, you are getting a pass 100% of the time (except for clock killing purposes).

So since they are completing a high percentage of passes, the only way attempts are going up regularly is keeping down and distance nice and normal. And that means penalties and sacks must stop.

[Brandon494]

Grant
77 carries - 337 yards against St. Louis, Detroit & Cleveland (4.38 ypc)
41 carries - 158 yards again Chicago, Cincinatti, & Minnesota. (3.85 ypc)

Adrian Peterson
54 carries - 335 yards vs. St. Louis, Detroit, & Cleveland (6.20 ypc)
84 carries - 352 yards vs. Baltimore, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, & San Fran (4.19 ypc)


Totals
138 carries - 687 yards - 5.0 ypc - 8 TD in 7 Games for AP
118 carries - 495 yards - 4.2 ypc - 3 TD in 6 Games for Grant


Peterson had 2 less yards, on 23 less carries against the 3 "bad" teams.

We all know Ryan Grant is not a top back so whats the point of comparing him to the best back in the game?

[ND72]

Grant
77 carries - 337 yards against St. Louis, Detroit & Cleveland (4.38 ypc)
41 carries - 158 yards again Chicago, Cincinatti, & Minnesota. (3.85 ypc)

Adrian Peterson
54 carries - 335 yards vs. St. Louis, Detroit, & Cleveland (6.20 ypc)
84 carries - 352 yards vs. Baltimore, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, & San Fran (4.19 ypc)


Totals
138 carries - 687 yards - 5.0 ypc - 8 TD in 7 Games for AP
118 carries - 495 yards - 4.2 ypc - 3 TD in 6 Games for Grant


Peterson had 2 less yards, on 23 less carries against the 3 "bad" teams.

We all know Ryan Grant is not a top back so whats the point of comparing him to the best back in the game?

Maxie told me too...

[Partial]

67 carries - 337 yards against St. Louis, Detroit & Cleveland

41 carries - 158 yards again Chicago, Cincinatti, & Minnesota.

So what that tells me is Grant is good against poor teams, and average to below average against good teams.

Numbers don't always tell you the real truth...unless you break it down like this.

41 for 158 is a 3.85 yard per carry average. I think its more the number of attempts against these good teams that worries me. That's an average of just under 14 a game.

I have become convinced that McCarthy is not going to change his run calling strategy. He is going to run a certain percentage for each down and distance situation. And if its 3rd and medium or longer, you are getting a pass 100% of the time (except for clock killing purposes).

So since they are completing a high percentage of passes, the only way attempts are going up regularly is keeping down and distance nice and normal. And that means penalties and sacks must stop.

Where are you getting the down and distance data. That would be interesting to peek at.

[ND72]

67 carries - 337 yards against St. Louis, Detroit & Cleveland

41 carries - 158 yards again Chicago, Cincinatti, & Minnesota.

So what that tells me is Grant is good against poor teams, and average to below average against good teams.

Numbers don't always tell you the real truth...unless you break it down like this.

41 for 158 is a 3.85 yard per carry average. I think its more the number of attempts against these good teams that worries me. That's an average of just under 14 a game.

I have become convinced that McCarthy is not going to change his run calling strategy. He is going to run a certain percentage for each down and distance situation. And if its 3rd and medium or longer, you are getting a pass 100% of the time (except for clock killing purposes).

So since they are completing a high percentage of passes, the only way attempts are going up regularly is keeping down and distance nice and normal. And that means penalties and sacks must stop.

I agree with this 100%. I think my bigger problem is McCarthy's running game is so damn predictable, espcially against certain teams. When we play Minnesota, it's like McCarthy is so bent to show we can run righ tat them, that when we can't, he just throws it.

PLUS...watch closely sometime. When we run a zone play, Grant is at 7 yards, any pass play, or any other running play, he is at 5 yards....YES, I decided to actually break down packer tape when I was working on some football stuff. When we run a play action pass, Grant is ALWAYS at 4 yards. And, when we run a zone, we will always run away from the TE, every time. If we are in a double tight set, we will motion one of the TE's away, and run again, away from the TE's...EVERY time.

[pbmax]

67 carries - 337 yards against St. Louis, Detroit & Cleveland

41 carries - 158 yards again Chicago, Cincinatti, & Minnesota.

So what that tells me is Grant is good against poor teams, and average to below average against good teams.

Numbers don't always tell you the real truth...unless you break it down like this.

41 for 158 is a 3.85 yard per carry average. I think its more the number of attempts against these good teams that worries me. That's an average of just under 14 a game.

I have become convinced that McCarthy is not going to change his run calling strategy. He is going to run a certain percentage for each down and distance situation. And if its 3rd and medium or longer, you are getting a pass 100% of the time (except for clock killing purposes).

So since they are completing a high percentage of passes, the only way attempts are going up regularly is keeping down and distance nice and normal. And that means penalties and sacks must stop.

Where are you getting the down and distance data. That would be interesting to peek at.

Its all inference from two of his press conferences. Especially the answer that Bedard tagged as "defensive" this past week. He spoke of running like it was beyond his control in some way, that he would like to do it but was being governed by some other deciding factor that the team had to control, not him. Since its not the score in any of our games so far (except perhaps 3rd Quarter @ Minnesota), it seems to me to be down and distance.

McCarthy seems like he is a numbers guy to me. He talks the field position game, points per possession and down and distance all the time. He also talks about turnovers and Special Teams and how that affects field position and the likelihood of scoring. Not TOP, controlling the clock, a specific pass to run ratio (Dan Henning, I think [maybe Ray Handley], used to put in writing in the play book for Parcells team's that they wanted a 60-40 run-pass split) or one specific set of plays that they must be able to run at all times (like the slant or the screen or Lombardi's sweep).

He plays probabilities. Over the course of the season, this works in your favor. But it can put you in positions where you are not skilled in the specific challenge before you. Like short yardage in 06 and 07. He has addressed these things (for instance a shorter passing game for the Detroit game) but its not the start of his design of his offense.

He runs when his numbers tells him it will be most likely to lead (or get him closer to) a first down. Or a score.

[gbgary]

it's not grant against the better teams...it's the o-line against the better teams. grant doesn't run softer or hit the holes slower against the better teams...it's that the holes are smaller and fewer in number. improve the line and you'll improve the run stats.

[pbmax]

67 carries - 337 yards against St. Louis, Detroit & Cleveland

41 carries - 158 yards again Chicago, Cincinatti, & Minnesota.

So what that tells me is Grant is good against poor teams, and average to below average against good teams.

Numbers don't always tell you the real truth...unless you break it down like this.

41 for 158 is a 3.85 yard per carry average. I think its more the number of attempts against these good teams that worries me. That's an average of just under 14 a game.

I have become convinced that McCarthy is not going to change his run calling strategy. He is going to run a certain percentage for each down and distance situation. And if its 3rd and medium or longer, you are getting a pass 100% of the time (except for clock killing purposes).

So since they are completing a high percentage of passes, the only way attempts are going up regularly is keeping down and distance nice and normal. And that means penalties and sacks must stop.

I agree with this 100%. I think my bigger problem is McCarthy's running game is so damn predictable, espcially against certain teams. When we play Minnesota, it's like McCarthy is so bent to show we can run righ tat them, that when we can't, he just throws it.

PLUS...watch closely sometime. When we run a zone play, Grant is at 7 yards, any pass play, or any other running play, he is at 5 yards....YES, I decided to actually break down packer tape when I was working on some football stuff. When we run a play action pass, Grant is ALWAYS at 4 yards. And, when we run a zone, we will always run away from the TE, every time. If we are in a double tight set, we will motion one of the TE's away, and run again, away from the TE's...EVERY time.

Wow. I am impressed and worried. I am going to watch the game with this post on the computer. Its seems to be inviting a beatdown by opposing scouting. He must have counters to each of these plays, or is that the role of the cutback run?

[MJZiggy]

It comes back to the question of whether Grant improved last week, the o-line improved last week, or the Browns were incredibly that bad.

[pbmax]

It comes back to the question of whether Grant improved last week, the o-line improved last week, or the Browns were incredibly that bad.

The Browns run D is terrible so far. But Grant doesn't need to break away for TDs. We need 4 yards a carry and the passing game will do the rest. I truly believe that if we can cut down on sacks and penalties, M3 will be in a down and distance to run more. And that will make first downs easier to come by; and that will give the passing game a chance to throttle people.

[pbmax]

67 carries - 337 yards against St. Louis, Detroit & Cleveland

41 carries - 158 yards again Chicago, Cincinatti, & Minnesota.

So what that tells me is Grant is good against poor teams, and average to below average against good teams.

Numbers don't always tell you the real truth...unless you break it down like this.

41 for 158 is a 3.85 yard per carry average. I think its more the number of attempts against these good teams that worries me. That's an average of just under 14 a game.

I have become convinced that McCarthy is not going to change his run calling strategy. He is going to run a certain percentage for each down and distance situation. And if its 3rd and medium or longer, you are getting a pass 100% of the time (except for clock killing purposes).

So since they are completing a high percentage of passes, the only way attempts are going up regularly is keeping down and distance nice and normal. And that means penalties and sacks must stop.

Where are you getting the down and distance data. That would be interesting to peek at.

In direct answer to your question, I don't have data on down and distance. I have never even found a reliable source for short yardage info. The only place where I believe it would be found is the Premium Package at Football Outsiders. You get a copy of their database when you sign up for their pay service.

[ND72]

It comes back to the question of whether Grant improved last week, the o-line improved last week, or the Browns were incredibly that bad.

The Browns run D is terrible so far. But Grant doesn't need to break away for TDs. We need 4 yards a carry and the passing game will do the rest. I truly believe that if we can cut down on sacks and penalties, M3 will be in a down and distance to run more. And that will make first downs easier to come by; and that will give the passing game a chance to throttle people.

[retailguy]

If this thread isn't a flashing billboard screaming "stats aren't the entire answer/picture", I don't know what is.

If Grant is a top 10 back, then I'm Brad Pitt.

There is nothing about this offense that is "top 10 anything" right now. Back to back games against Detroit and Cleveland will help you pad those stats.

I'll take the wins, that's for sure, but it doesn't ease my worries about this team at all.

Let's see what the stats from Sunday's game look like on Monday, ok? If those stats look good, and we get another W, then I'll start believing.

TJ Lang against Jared Allen, is a lot different than TJ Lang against Wimbley/Coleman....

I agree RG, stats don't mean shit Truthfully though, just like I said in the other thread they do matter. Maybe not the entire story, but they matter. For 2 weeks MM has committed to the run a bit more, Grant and the OL has been able to catch a rythm and suddenly things look a lot brighter.

Is RG a top 10 back....probably not, but he is obviously capable of getting the job done when the blocks are there. He also has hands of stone. And like someone said, we don't split carries at all.

All of the information is telling, but stats do matter and those of us (myself to an extent) who said RGrant SUCKS have to backpeddle a bit. Is he a stud...no, but he obviously can still get 'er done when the carries are there and the line is adequate.

Like you said, this week will tell us a lot. I actually expect to win a tough one, maybe lose a tough one, but we will be in this game the whole way without any doubt on my part. And I stand by what I said earlier, we are a top 10 team, but not a top 5 team.

I didn't say "stats suck" in either thread. I said they don't tell the whole picture. Ryan Grant is not the 6th best back in the NFL. Stats say he is performing that way in a couple of categories.

You don't get into the NFL without talent. NFL worthy talent. Grant has that. Grant isn't, nor will ever be, top 10 NFL talent. Adrian Peterson, Barry Sanders, and Walter Payton, did not need quality offensive lines to be successful. Ryan Grant, along with 9/10ths of the backs to ever play the game, DO need a good line.

We don't have that right now. True to form this line will probably improve as the season goes along. That doesn't make it a good line. It won't be until we play consistently. We aren't. For 3 years in a row, we haven't.

We must be careful in using stats to say "there! It is working!"

It is NOT working yet. This line has a long, long way to go. Ryan Grant will be COMPETENT when that happens. He'll never be GREAT. I'll be happy with COMPETENT. Right now, Grant isn't the problem. After we have a line, then we'll see if he's the problem. He does miss a lot of cuts though, and sometimes is slow as hell. So, a good line might expose him. But, first things first.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

It comes back to the question of whether Grant improved last week, the o-line improved last week, or the Browns were incredibly that bad.

The Browns run D is terrible so far. But Grant doesn't need to break away for TDs. We need 4 yards a carry and the passing game will do the rest. I truly believe that if we can cut down on sacks and penalties, M3 will be in a down and distance to run more. And that will make first downs easier to come by; and that will give the passing game a chance to throttle people.

Pretty much got it PB.

Much as we may dislike it, MM is like andy reid. Going to want to pass more than run. Nothing wrong with that.

I tend to agree. I an average line and average penalties would change things dramatically. We can suffer one, but not both.

[Brandon494]

Pretty much got it PB.

Much as we may dislike it, MM is like andy reid. Going to want to pass more than run. Nothing wrong with that.

I tend to agree. I an average line and average penalties would change things dramatically. We can suffer one, but not both.

I wouldn't mind it either but if your going to be like Andy Reid atleast get a RB who can catch out of the backfield. Doesnt have to be Brian Westbrook but thats something this offense could really use. Brandon Jackson was suppose to be that type of back but looks like he will be nothing more than a 3rd stringer.