BELLICHEK THE GENIUS.....Gone insane or Calculated ???

[Bretsky]

Many watched one of the great games of the season with the Patriots playing at Indy.

The media has torn Bill Bellichek, greatest NFL coach I've witnessed, to shreds in the past week.

Not sure I'd have had the stones to do it but........I AGREE WITH BILL BELLICHEK


Consider the circumstances

3rd and 2 at their own 29...incomplete pass
4th and 2 at their own 29

Do you go for the jugulars or do you punt ?

I SAY GO AND THIS IS WHY


ESPN reported under BB New England has converted 64% of their fourth down calls of 4th and 2 or more

Indianapolis had went down for two straight TD's with the ease that reminded me of the Vanilla Bob Days

Payton Manning was 7 or 8 for 101 yards and two TD's in the past two drives
The New England Patriots Defense was winded


Bellichek played the odds but it just didn't work. Consider this.

If there is say, a 60% chance that NE converts on the first down...odds are they will run the time down or out and win

If they fail, my guess is there is about a 90% chance Payton Manning drives his team 29 yards for the win, as he did.

Let's say they punt and give Manning the ball with 65 yards to go and a couple timeouts for the win.

I'd say his odds of putting the dagger in New England himself are at least 50% and if you were watching the game and feeling the momentum turn one might argue 75%.

So which do you choose ????????????????///


What Bill Bellichek did was show us he had stones in trying to win with his team's strength
He made the right call but it just didn't work.

EXACT OPPOSITE OF MIKE SHERMAN on 4th and 1 Versus Phily in the Playoffs in puting the game in the hands of the weaker side of the ball

[Bretsky]

I will say this

Bellichek knew he was going for it on 4th and 2

With that being the case, his mistake was not running on 3rd and two to give his squad better odds at converting if they didn't make the first down on that down

[retailguy]

I will say this

Bellichek knew he was going for it on 4th and 2

With that being the case, his mistake was not running on 3rd and two to give his squad better odds at converting if they didn't make the first down on that down

the real question is what would ted do? mccrappy woulda ordered a pizza, and then punted.

[Lurker64]

Well, what the Pats were attempting to do in that situation amounted to approximately a 2 point conversion, as the Colts had only one time out and the Pats would have been able to run out the clock. Historically, teams at the 30 yard line with 2 minutes to go needing a TD to tie or win get it approximately 53% of the time (though this could be higher for the Colts offense). The NFL percentages for completing a 2 point conversion (which is basically what the Pats wanted to do) is right around 45%.

So by going for it, the Pats have a winning percentage of:

(0.45 * 1) + (0.55 * (1-0.53)) = .7085

A punt from the 28 yard line typically nets about 38 yards, which would leave the Colts at their own 34. So the question really comes down to "Are the Colts chances of driving 66 yards in two minutes with one time out and scoring a TD better than .2915."

Personally, I would have punted.

[mraynrand]

I would have punted and then on 4th and 26, I would have blitzed instead of playing off in quarters.

[The Leaper]

It was a very stupid decision IMO...because of one key reason that few discuss.

Everyone says that the Pats win if they convert...but that is NOT true. The Colts still had all 3 timeouts plus the 2 minute warning...so the Pats would have to get ANOTHER first down to actually take a knee and win.

In other words...you MAKE the 4th and 2. Now the 2 minute warning hits and it is 1st and 10 at your own 30. You run 3 plays and the Colts call 3 timeouts. Now there is 1:45 on the clock, and it is 4th down again.

I agree with Belichick's call IF and ONLY IF the conversion is more or less the end of the game...i.e. you are able to run out the clock by taking knees. In this case, converting the fourth down did not mean the game was over. You still faced the potential of giving the ball back to Manning, albeit without the timeouts.

So, in that position, I punt every time without question...because the risk is not worth the reward.

[gex]

Against any other team a punt would have been the right decision, But like Bretsky said the way Manning walked down the field the last 2 drives, I think going for it was an ok decision.
Summary = any other team-punt, Peyton Manning led team - go for it.

[pbmax]

Re: BELLICHEK THE GENIUS.....Gone insane or Calculated ???

The media has torn Bill Bellichek, greatest NFL coach I've witnessed, to shreds in the past week.

Bill Walsh, Don Shula, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells. At least Walsh had the decency to look like he knew what he was doing when he drafted Montana in the 3rd round. Not even Belicheck can claim to have valued Brady that much by getting him in the 6th. That is a good deal of luck. They were terrible with Bledsoe under Belicheck.

But there is also the matter of wasting a timeout before first down of this drive. If we are going to harpoon McCarthy because of the failed challenge on Nelson, then Belicheck deserves to be knocked as well. His QB called his timeout for the same reason McCarthy said he was going to call timeout before the Nelson challenge. It could have come in VERY handy with only a slight variation in the outcome of his 4th down call OR when the Pats got the ball back down by one. Belicheck's error was more egregious in some ways, as his Offense was ill prepared coming out of a change of possession timeout. At least McCarthy was waiting for a coaching booth call on the challenge.

ESPN reported under BB New England has converted 64% of their fourth down calls of 4th and 2 or more

Not all of those chances came against the Colts' defense.

Let's say they punt and give Manning the ball with 65 yards to go and a couple timeouts for the win.

Indianapolis had only one timeout left. Had NE run on 3rd down, they leave Indy with no 2:00 warning or no timeouts. If Indy is smart, they call a TO fast after the run (assume there is no first down) with about 2:05 on the clock. After the kick, Indy is going 65 yards with no timeouts and no two minute warning.[/quote]

EXACT OPPOSITE OF MIKE SHERMAN on 4th and 1 Versus Phily in the Playoffs in puting the game in the hands of the weaker side of the ball

Sherman had seen 4th and 1 not work earlier in the game. That had to have some bearing on his decision. Belicheck had not been in this spot in this game.

[digitaldean]

At first glance or to anyone who wasn't watching the previous Colt drives, Bellcheck's move looked unwarranted at best.

He must have seen that his D was gassed and couldn't stop Manning from 79 yards away, let alone 29 yards.

He rolled the dice and it came up snake eyes. If they would have made that and eventually ran out the clock somehow, we'd be hearing about the genius of that move.

As of now, some people are treating him like Elmer Fudd.

[Bretsky]

It was a very stupid decision IMO...because of one key reason that few discuss.

Everyone says that the Pats win if they convert...but that is NOT true. The Colts still had all 3 timeouts plus the 2 minute warning...so the Pats would have to get ANOTHER first down to actually take a knee and win.

In other words...you MAKE the 4th and 2. Now the 2 minute warning hits and it is 1st and 10 at your own 30. You run 3 plays and the Colts call 3 timeouts. Now there is 1:45 on the clock, and it is 4th down again.

I agree with Belichick's call IF and ONLY IF the conversion is more or less the end of the game...i.e. you are able to run out the clock by taking knees. In this case, converting the fourth down did not mean the game was over. You still faced the potential of giving the ball back to Manning, albeit without the timeouts.

So, in that position, I punt every time without question...because the risk is not worth the reward.

Unless my memory is wrong they did not have three TO's left

[Guiness]

one way or the other, the media, who he's been flat out nasty to, has had a field day panning him for this!

[pbmax]

The Colts had one timeout left and while I have not been as dialed into Sport Talk radio as usual this week, what I have heard has been 60/40 too smart for his own good/right call. I don't think the condemnation is universal, but its an easy column because the distance between turning the ball over and the Colts scoring is just a few plays. Plus it goes against conventional wisdom, so the column writes itself.

[Pugger]

If any other coach besides BB had done this he would've been blasted big time. But because Belichick has been so successful he gets a pass by most. I had to laugh watching BSPN earlier on Wednesday night. They were saying how the Patriot players weren't saying anything negative about their coach's decision but what NE is gonna say anything negative about his HC??

[gex]

http://www.fantasyindex.com/content_sections/display_entry/1927

When Bill Belichick's gamble at the end of the Patriots/Colts game didn't pan out for New England, I could see what was coming next. I don't mean Peyton Manning's pass to Reggie Wayne, although that wasn't surprising. I don't even mean the Colts' excellent use of clock management, which was very different than the Buccaneers' poor use of the clock that gave the Dolphins a chance to win. I expect good teams to use good strategies (and poor teams to use poor ones).

No, when Kevin Faulk bobbled a pass that couldn't be challenged, I knew the commentators were lining up to attack the decision. And after the game, when the Colts had kept their record perfect and New England looked suddenly flawed, every talking head did what they do best: use 20/20 hindsight to earn their paycheck. Everyone knew you have to punt in that situation. It made no sense to risk the game like that. You have to show confidence in your defense, you have to lengthen the field for Manning and you have to make them drive for the winning score. Conventional wisdom was nearly unanimous, and everyone knew what Belichick should have done.

And the more I heard people say what a bad decision it was, the more it seemed like a pretty good move. If everyone thinks you have to do something, it's often a good time to consider doing something else. How many of Belichick's critics would have praised his "gutsy call" if it had paid off?

Going for fourth down wasn't a bad call. Punting wouldn't have been a bad call, either. If you're the type to play it safe, you punt. If you're the type to grab the brass ring, you go for it. Tony Dungy is the type of coach who would punt, so I don't fault him for his criticism. Even if it paid off I think Dungy would have criticized the call. But Belichick is different, and he went for it. Either way, you have to live with your decision.

[channtheman]

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