Official 49er Playoff Week Discussion Thread

[bobblehead]

I think the key for Davis may lie in Bush. Bush could be the key for short stuff to Davis and Boldin in the middle; would like to see him be physical with these guys, like he was with Jeffery and Bennett last week. he could also help the safeties by giving Davis a shot near the line and throwing him off a bit. But VD and Boldin made some great catches in the Sept. game, many against McMillian. Hopefully the Packers do a better job of coverage and Kap continues to struggle with his accuracy. (Some of the big receiving plays came against a soft run-wary zone, so much will depend on how scared Packers are of the run, and how many risks they take running more man coverage, which is their best pass defense)

The key to our season is Bush. I agree. I also just threw up in my mouth a little.

[bobblehead]

My concern is Crabtree. Packer spent time doubling Davis in the last three games with LB in trail and safety over the top. You could double Boldin similarly unless he goes deep.

Crabtree could be a handful to man up on if healthy. I hope he hates the cold.

I hope that by the end of the game he hates Sam Shields.

[mraynrand]

I hope that by the end of the game he hates Sam Shields.

I wonder who will get him, or if they will just stick with whoever lines up across from them, as they promised to do earlier in the season. We saw T Will get abused by Boldin when it mattered most, but he's playing tougher so maybe he holds up better - at least on the outside. Shields can cover Crabtree, probably mostly without any help. Big worry there is footing.

[Maxie the Taxi]

This entire discussion will be academic if the Packers don't tackle well. The first guy to the ball carrier must go in low and wrap up. If he go in high or goes for the strip he'll get straight-armed and miss the tackle. That's been a consistent problem and a killer for this team. Playing off blockers is going to be key too. And avoiding the ever-present "communication" errors. Make the 49ers beat you. Don't hand them gifts.

[denverYooper]

Rob Demovsky @RobDemovsky 59s
McCarthy: Eddie practiced all week. Practiced well.

Mike Vandermause @MikeVandermause 1m
#Packers injury report: Brad Jones probable: Lacy probable; Matthews out; Neal DNPI probable; Perry DNP probable; Pickett limited probable.

[wist43]

No. But with one less on the field, I can put the specialist pass rushing OLB on the field. Which is the point of the nickel.

This simply comes down to worst case scenario: leak run yards or let pass plays break for big gains. Choose your poison. If the Packers were a good tackling team at safety, I would be more sanguine about the pass plays.

Bobble point about playing the run while jetting upfield is a very interesting point. You can disrupt a run game that way. You can also have a good back go for 200 against you because he is patient and waits for you to pass by. Its also how Kapernick got his first 80 yards in the playoff game. As wist has pointed out, there is some talent in the smaller D lineman so I could be convinced about this option in the 2-4 rather than for 3-3

Max, the point of the nickel is to bring in another DB in to give you more flexibility in coverage. You're taking either a DL or LB out in favor of a DB.

Capers isn't taking out a DL, b/c he only has 2 on the field most of the time anyway. Nickel is his base - as has been cited, he plays more 2-4 nickel than any team in the league.

In the 3-3, just as in the 2-4 you already have 5 DB's on the field. That's your "specialist", the DB - to match up with a 3rd WR, or assign a safety to the RB and bring a 5th on the blitz, or assign the safety to the slot guy and send the corner.

What you're talking about doing with the 2-4 is what Caper is already doing. 2DL, 4LB, 5DB's - and we know that is doing nothing but getting us run over in the run game when he does it on 2nd and 6; and we're not generating any pass rush in passing situations.

Your 4th LB is a weaker run defender, and a weaker pass rusher than my 3rd DL. That's the point.

My contention is tilt the personnel to your strengths, i.e. the DL. Instead of a bartender like Francios on the field, or weak POA defenders like Brad Jones or Hawk, you have D. Jones or Daniels on the field.

Again, it's just a subpackage - which is what both of those alignments should be anyway. Bad situation worse is when Capers goes to the 2-4 as his base more often than not. That idiot is playing 2-4 on 1st and 10, 2nd and 6, and 1st and goal from the 1 yd line!!!!

To Capers, the 2-4 is not a subpackage, it's his base. That alone is enough for me to fire him if I'm TT. If I'm TT, why in the hell did I even bother drafting any defensive linemen high in the draft if my defensive coordinator isn't going to play them??

[mraynrand]

Wist:

1) Doesn't Capers use different D-linemen in 2-4 on run and passing downs - Picket and Jolly/Raji/Boyd on run and Daniels and ???/Jones on passing downs? 2) TT drafted Perry and Neal as linemen/LBs, so in the 2-4 they should be able to run stop on obvious run downs and not get absolutely killed in coverage, no? (unless they play man when everyone else is playing zone)
2a) Do you know the frequency of 2-4 on first and ten versus 3-3 and 3-4? (I do not, but 3 down linemen seemed more frequent) Seems like that matters a lot for this discussion (I think Max has given that answer already)
3) Francois is gone for the year on IR, but wasn't he decent in pass coverage. Seemed better than Hawk and Jones - at least less stiff.

4) How would you line up on the goal line (say on the 2) with Jeffery, Marshall, Bennett, and Forte, all who can catch the ball, lined up in a passing formation? What if another WR is out there with them?

[denverYooper]

Bill Barnwell: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-playoff-games

One big key problem for the Packers: they've lost the turnover battle every time over the last 3 games.

And I don't want to suggest that the Packers are due for a takeaway against the 49ers, but it's pretty incredible that Green Bay has had so much difficulty getting the ball away from the San Francisco offense. The Packers have lost the turnover battle five to one over these three recent Green Bay–San Francisco tilts, and while that one takeaway was a Sam Shields pick-six on the opening drive of last year's playoff game, the Packers just haven't been able to create big plays on defense. It's really important to keep competitive with the 49ers in terms of the turnover margin, too. The 49ers are now 38-4-1 under Harbaugh when they win or tie the turnover battle and 1-9 when they lose it. Everyone does better when they win the turnover battle, but Harbaugh's 49ers are an extreme case.

Getting rid of Ross should help them there

[pbmax]

Your 4th LB is a weaker run defender, and a weaker pass rusher than my 3rd DL. That's the point.

Who is your third D lineman versus a 3 WR offense?

[wist43]

Who is your third D lineman versus a 3 WR offense?

Are you gonna put Brad Jones or AJ Hawk on the 3rd WR?? Of course not... unless you drop those guys into an underneath zone and a WR just happens to cross, or sit down in their zone. You're certainly not gonna match up your LB's on someone like Wes Welker - at least you shouldn't be doing that.

Again, these are all just subpackages. If Capers played 3-3 on the run/pass downs, i.e. 2nd and 4, 5, or 6; or 3rd and 3 or less - unless the offense brings out 4 or 5 wides, that would make much more sense.

As it is, Capers is playing 2-4 on downs that are as likely to be runs as pass, and when the offense does run, we're giving up big chunks of yards and 1st downs.

[wist43]

It sounds like you guys are trying to rationalize and justify Capers 2-4, when playing the 2-4 and the constant miscommunications in the back end are what is producing the dismal results, and the reason he may be fired.

Our defense was dead last in yds allowed in 2011, and set a league record for pass defense futility; improved a bit last year, but still nothing to write home about; and we're one of the worst defenses again this year. Injuries account for some of that, but at the end of the day, Capers didn't do nearly enough with the talent he was given. He needs to go.

[pbmax]

Are you gonna put Brad Jones or AJ Hawk on the 3rd WR?? Of course not... unless you drop those guys into an underneath zone and a WR just happens to cross, or sit down in their zone. You're certainly not gonna match up your LB's on someone like Wes Welker - at least you shouldn't be doing that.

Again, these are all just subpackages. If Capers played 3-3 on the run/pass downs, i.e. 2nd and 4, 5, or 6; or 3rd and 3 or less - unless the offense brings out 4 or 5 wides, that would make much more sense.

As it is, Capers is playing 2-4 on downs that are as likely to be runs as pass, and when the offense does run, we're giving up big chunks of yards and 1st downs.

Jones can rush or be in coverage, zone or man. He's not your 5th DB but he gives you options BJ Raji in a zone blitz doesn't.

Capers is playing match ups and tendencies. But teams are running on that front when they see it and its a close call. You can make it bigger, but then they are simply going to pass.

You are going to go heavy against three wides and not have your best pass protection on the field.

Note: This may not be a bad plan versus either the 49ers or Seahawks. It would be death against the Saints or Broncos.

Capers does need to adjust the scheme to the healthy talent, but 3-3 doesn't seem like the key adjustment. Might be situationally.

[pbmax]

SI Wild Card Preview:

http://nfl.si.com/2014/01/03/wild-card-playoffs-colts-chiefs-saints-eagles-bengals-chargers-49ers-packers/2/

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 4:40 p.m.)

The one number nobody can account for in this game is minus-51 — that’s the projected wind-chill factor for Lambeau Field on Sunday evening, which could render a lot of the other numbers you’re about to see null and void. The Packers would hope for any kind of change when facing Colin Kaepernick — the third-year 49ers quarterback riddled their defense for a quarterback-record 181 rushing yards in last year’s divisional round, and killed the Packers’ secondary for 412 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 of this season. More bad news — in his last six games, Kaepernick has completed 102 of 165 passes for 1,395 yards (a whopping 8.4 yards per attempt average), 10 touchdowns, and just one interception.

If Kaepernick is able to deal with the weather and play like he has of late, Green Bay will certainly struggle to deal with it. Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, the Packers’ primary cornerbacks, have each been vulnerable in coverage this season. Williams has allowed an 88-1 opposing passer rating and has allowed four touchdowns to just three interceptions. Shields has been better, but not by enough — he’s allowed a 72.7 rating, and allowed four touchdowns to four picks. Both Williams and Micah Hyde have allowed opponent passer ratings of more than 100 in the slot, which could bode well for Anquan Boldin. The veteran receiver has lined up 221 times in the slot this season, and he absolutely killed the Packers in that Week 1 game — he caught 13 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown in his 49ers debut.

Now some good news, Packers fans. In that Week 1 game, quarterback Aaron Rodgers and receiver Randall Cobb — who each returned from injuries last week — did a pretty nice job against San Francisco’s defense. Cobb caught seven passes in 12 targets for 108 yards and a score. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, no quarterback-receiver duo have hooked up successfully on a higher number of attempts over the last three seasons with a minimum of 150 attempts. In addition, Cobb was able to burn San Francisco for multiple plays of 15 yards or more, continuing a trend from the 2012 postseason, when the 49ers allowed more throws of 15 or more yards downfield (four) than in the entire season (two).

[bobblehead]

Wist:

1) Doesn't Capers use different D-linemen in 2-4 on run and passing downs - Picket and Jolly/Raji/Boyd on run and Daniels and ???/Jones on passing downs? 2) TT drafted Perry and Neal as linemen/LBs, so in the 2-4 they should be able to run stop on obvious run downs and not get absolutely killed in coverage, no? (unless they play man when everyone else is playing zone)
2a) Do you know the frequency of 2-4 on first and ten versus 3-3 and 3-4? (I do not, but 3 down linemen seemed more frequent) Seems like that matters a lot for this discussion (I think Max has given that answer already)
3) Francois is gone for the year on IR, but wasn't he decent in pass coverage. Seemed better than Hawk and Jones - at least less stiff.

4) How would you line up on the goal line (say on the 2) with Jeffery, Marshall, Bennett, and Forte, all who can catch the ball, lined up in a passing formation? What if another WR is out there with them?

Your problem with #1 is that Neal and Perry are on the edge. We are getting killed up the middle for the most part. And to #3 Wist isn't saying some of the linebackers don't do anything well, but when its 2nd and 6 and we go nickel, the pass defending LB's are in the game and they can't run stuff. We need better ILB's who can be complete players so we don't get caught in this game of matching the 3 WR's only to have it run down our throats.

EDIT: and to #4, from the 1, you simply flood the zones. You don't have to worry about Jeffries beating you deep. You don't have to cover him for more than 11 yards of field. You still gotta have some beef on the line though.

[bobblehead]

It sounds like you guys are trying to rationalize and justify Capers 2-4, when playing the 2-4 and the constant miscommunications in the back end are what is producing the dismal results, and the reason he may be fired.

Our defense was dead last in yds allowed in 2011, and set a league record for pass defense futility; improved a bit last year, but still nothing to write home about; and we're one of the worst defenses again this year. Injuries account for some of that, but at the end of the day, Capers didn't do nearly enough with the talent he was given. He needs to go.

The one thing in Capers defense re: miscommunications is the article on JS the other day. He is stuck with a lot of young guys, and a lot of injuries, and that leads to blown assignments.