Will Cobb earn the big contract many are expecting?

[Fritz]

Cue the Vikings/Bears throwing sacks and sacks of doubloons at Cobb this offseason.

[pbmax]

vince's link looks familiar

A lot depends on the market this offseason. By cap numbers, Cobb could eclipse Nelson just by just getting a smaller percentage of the cap yielding more dollars for him yearly. But if the expected collapse of the WR market happens, as some are predicting, it might be hard to do better than Jennings did.

[Guiness]

I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.

Vince, there is another point of reference for highly paid slot receivers, Welker, and that worked out a lot better even though Belicheck decided it was too much money for him.

[vince]

vince's link looks familiar

A lot depends on the market this offseason. By cap numbers, Cobb could eclipse Nelson just by just getting a smaller percentage of the cap yielding more dollars for him yearly. But if the expected collapse of the WR market happens, as some are predicting, it might be hard to do better than Jennings did.

Oops my bad pb.

It seems like just about everyone thinks this'll get done one way or another, and I agree. You take all the history about how Thompson recruits, the profiles of players he likes to draft, how he wants to build a team, and just his whole modus operandi and try to encapsulate it in one person... that guy is Randall Cobb. It's really hard to see Ted letting him walk at the ripe old age of 24. I wish he wouldn't let him get to the point of testing his market value, but if he does, Ted will pay it - just like he did with Shields. At that point though you're basically paying top dollar. I think he's worth it but I don't quite understand Thompson's recent tendency toward letting guys he wants to resign get to free agency...

[vince]

I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.

Vince, there is another point of reference for highly paid slot receivers, Welker, and that worked out a lot better even though Belicheck decided it was too much money for him.

Yeah thanks Guiness. Do you recall or have a quick link to what Welker signed for again? A much younger and more productive Cobb is going to top that deal I'd say.

[Guiness]

Yeah thanks Guiness. Do you recall or have a quick link to what Welker signed for again? A much younger and more productive Cobb is going to top that deal I'd say.

He was franchised for one season, that would've been $10M or close to it. His Denver deal was lower, but I think it was fully (like, real and truly fully, not 'unless we say it isn't') guaranteed.

[pbmax]

I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.

Vince, there is another point of reference for highly paid slot receivers, Welker, and that worked out a lot better even though Belicheck decided it was too much money for him.

The trend has been down since Vincent Jackson's deal. Even overpaying Mike Wallace got him nowhere near the previous top deals (Fitzgerald, etc.).

That plus very good rookie contributions (no more waiting 3 years) and a decent draft class seem to point to a depressed market. It has not fallen like RB yet and so predicting it is a dicey business. But it is quite stagnant.

You are right that the one group doing better are the slot guys. Like I said, with an increased cap coming, there is no guarantee his market will be flat.

[George Cumby]

we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.

On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.

Thoughts?

[vince]

we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.

On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.

Thoughts?

One of the biggest variables may be that everyone has the benefit of hindsight to see how that worked out for Jennings. I think it's pretty well understood that Thompson had made Jennings offers that were higher than he ended up getting with the Vikings but he turned them down. Teddy was there with Jennings. It was Jennings who made the fateful decisions. Isn't it too obvious for Cobb to not make the same mistakes Jennings did?

[vince]

The trend has been down since Vincent Jackson's deal. Even overpaying Mike Wallace got him nowhere near the previous top deals (Fitzgerald, etc.).

That plus very good rookie contributions (no more waiting 3 years) and a decent draft class seem to point to a depressed market. It has not fallen like RB yet and so predicting it is a dicey business. But it is quite stagnant.

You are right that the one group doing better are the slot guys. Like I said, with an increased cap coming, there is no guarantee his market will be flat.

One of the things that's been learned I think is that it's easy to grossly overpay for receiving talent when you don't have the guy you need to throw it to them. With Rodgers in the mix for the next 8 years or whatever it is, I think aggressively investing in talent at the skill positions around him become good decisions. If we had someone cued up right behind Cobb that projected with confidence to replace his touches (like we did with Cobb when Jennings was in his last year) then that too changes things a bit but I don't see that here at all at this point.

[Guiness]

we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.

On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.

Thoughts?

Hard to compare this to GJ. It was a 3rd contract for him, and he had some injuries that were starting to look chronic. He did get his rookie contract extended.

[Patler]

I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.

Actually, some of the money taken from WRs might go to TEs, a bit more to the top TE's, and you might see teams that have two very solid ones signing both to good contracts.

RBs were paid extremely well at one time. Then, teams realized the passing game was the key and some of the RB money started going to WRs. Now, as they realize that one outstanding guy might not be as valuable as two or three really good ones, the top guys might get less and the #2 and #3 WRs along with the #1 & #2 TEs will get some of it.

OL is another example. Pay used to be somewhat equal, then LTs searched up the pay scale. RT's followed as LT salaries leveled a bit. Now guards and centers are catching up.

With so many different positions and skills on a team, some are always underpaid comparatively; but historically they catch up.

Not too long ago, many kickers and punters barely made minimum salaries. Then, an elite one gets a good contract, and others follow, taking cap dollars away from other positions.

Maybe its time for longsnappers to go on strike..........

[smuggler]

Jennings was knocking on 30 when he signed with the Vikes. We could sign Cobber to a 6 year deal and he'd only be there at the end of it. It probably makes the most sense for Cobb to take a 4-year deal, so he can hit the market again at 28. Would anyone be surprised with 4/32 or 4/40? Not me.

[Patler]

The Packers will make a solid offer to Cobb, which he will accept if he wants to stay in GB or reject if his objective is to get the top dollar possible. If he stays, people will see it as a "team-friendly" contract, but it won't be an insult, much like Nelson's contract. If GB signs Cobb to a deal as big as or bigger than Nelson's, I will expect to see Nelson's "sweetened" in a year or two if he is healthy and producing. They did that with Driver a couple times.

I don't think the situation with Cobb is very similar to GJ's. When Jennings deal was up, they had Nelson, Cobb and Jones under contract as proven receivers. Boykin looked interesting at least, and they still had Finley for another year. I felt all along the chance of him leaving was good, because he gave the impression of wanting a max contract, and didn't seem to care if he stayed in GB or not.

When Shields contract was up, there was great uncertainty about Williams and Hayward. They needed to sign Shields because he was the only proven CB who they knew to be healthy.

For Cobb, some of it might depend on what they think of Adams by the end of the year. Do they think he is ready to be a full-time starter? If the answer is "yes", there is no urgency to sign Cobb, especially if they still like Boykin in spite of his disappearance this year, and/or if they feel positively about Janis. Abbredaris brings nothing more to the table than the promise he had last year, and maybe less because of the ACL to get past.

My take? I think both sides will want to get a deal done, so it will happen. It could be a "three year special" like the Packers often seem to come up with. That might have appeal for Cobb, too, getting another bite of the apple as he enters the prime years age-wise for an NFL player.

[Zool]

we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.

On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.

Thoughts?

September 1983

vs

August 1990