Is Aaron Rodgers more of the problem than we might think?

[Patler]

Each week, Cohen at JSO does an article with 12 film observations from the previous game. #11 this week was interesting:

11. The perplexing nature of the goal-line play calling continued for the Packers on Sunday, even with Mike McCarthy back on the headset. A solid drive by the offense moved the ball from its own 20-yard line to the 6-yard line of the Cardinals, where the Packers had first and goal. What followed were four consecutive passes, including two that originated from the 2-yard line after wideout Davante Adams made a 4-yard reception. Even with Eddie Lacy on the field and playing relatively well — 12 carries for 60 yards — the running game was overlooked just a few feet from the end zone. At least one of the plays, however, was a called run. Television cameras captured right guard T.J. Lang screaming at quarterback Aaron Rodgers after a fade to Adams fell incomplete on third down. Lang asked Rodgers why he threw the ball, meaning a run play was likely called in the huddle.

An offensive guard taking a two-time MVP QB to task on the field for what he did on a play? Is it time to question AR's leadership? Are the players still fully behind him? Is he falling victim to the affliction great players sometimes do, thinking they are above their team mates, their coaches and the game and are players becoming frustrated with him? An on-field reaction like that from a lineman wouldn't come from a single play, it would come from the lineman having built-up frustration with his QB.

[smuggler]

Lacy's stat line is very deceiving. He had one run of 26 yards and was otherwise ineffective.

[Patler]

Lacy's stat line is very deceiving. He had one run of 26 yards and was otherwise ineffective.

That may be true, but it really doesn't have much to do with the Lang/Rodgers confrontation reported by Cohen, which I think is the interesting thing from his observation #11.

[denverYooper]

That particular instance was a normal check to a pass from a run, and the reaction to it and Lang's comments have been blown out of proportion due to the end result.

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/baranczyk%20/2015/12/28/packers-disconnect-offense-persists/77971166/

Then again, Adams and the rest of the receiving corps haven’t done much all season to earn trust. There was another glaring example Sunday, Adams’ drop in the end zone at the end of the third quarter. On third and goal from the 2, Rodgers changed the play from a run to a pass, and rightfully so. Arizona had a nine-man front with single coverage on both outside receivers. There was nowhere to run.

Rodgers put the fade throw to Adams on the money, but the ball went through Adams’ hands. In fact, Adams was late getting his hands up. He looked back for the ball in plenty of time, so it’s hard to understand how that happened.

[denverYooper]

In that same column, however, M3 makes some comments suggesting a disconnect between him and Rodgers:

“He cannot get hit like that, and we’ve got to change that,” McCarthy said. “(He) can’t hold the ball, either, and all the things that come with it. We’ve got to get (receivers) open quicker, we’ve got to beat man-to-man coverage, we’ve got to quit worrying about plays (called). We just need to focus on execution.”

That's at least the second time where he's made a comment about "worrying about playcalls" and I thought the first time was directed at Adams but I'm not so sure it's not Rodgers.

[denverYooper]

I think the bigger problem is that they have no speed. So it almost doesn't matter how many times Rodgers changes the play vs what's called.

After watching the Cardinals offense and then the Broncos-Bengals game on Monday, it struck me how many more fast options those teams had available and how much more stress that puts on the defense.

Cobb can do it sometimes, but teams usually take him out of the plan pretty easily.

A big part of Starks's success seems to be that he gets upfield so fast. I think it's a shock to opposing defenses. But he can't stop carrying the ball in the wrong arm and puts the ball on the ground too much.

Janis can't be trusted to make routine plays.

Abbredaris has flashed some ability to get open as a #3/4 but even he's been inconsistent.

Their normal starting lineup is almost all plodders and it is hard to even catch a defense off guard because they don't need to worry about recovering if they're caught out of position by a crafty playcall, a check, or what-have-you.

So maybe M3 is right. Maybe they should just line up and run the plays called and at least operate as a unit and not think about whether or not to change the play. At the very least, they won't be confused, even if they're slow.

[pbmax]

Tactically it was the correct call as Yoop's post points out. But that doesn't mean the Packers have the capability to pull it off.

And this is the difference between Rodger's offense (sort of, it probably was a base level pass-run option) and McCarthy's call.

M3 needs Rodgers to reduce the Offense's reliance on the unreliable. Problem is that the Packers haven't been a good short yardage team run or pass this year. So if Lang was upset it wasn't a run (he might have been mad he choose Adams), he and his O line buddies should look at their own film first.

[mraynrand]

Rodgers made two lazy/poor passes that I recall off the top of my head - the 3rd and short to Rodegers that was low and behind (before the fake) and the crossing to Abby that was too far in from t of him. Rodgers also had a running lane on the INT to Jones (would have been called back due to penalty anyway).

Rodgers is not sharp. Stubby is generally pissed because he thinks the plays will work if just run better. I agree. IT's not like they are gonna score 30 points at will, but they might eat clock and produce 21. Take away the 21 points off turnovers and you have a ballgame.

But realistically, nothing is gonna work with two turnstiles at tackle....

[Patler]

I don't buy the speed excuse. I agree that they lack speed, but they lacked speed last year and the offense was record setting. One guy, Nelson, doesn't convert an overall slow team to a fast team. The loss of one guy alone, who isn't the QB, doesn't convert a record setting offense to a dysfunctional group that can't get out of their own way.

This is an offense that returned essentially everyone, even the backups regularly relied on. The major changes were Abbrederis/Montgomery for Boykin (an improvement); Beckman and Ripkowski for Bostic and Taylor (inconsequential to the primary offense); Alonzo Harris/Crockett for Dujuan Harris (inconsequential); Hundley for Flynn (inconsequential); Josh Walker and the return of Barkley for Derek Sherrod (inconsequential).

There is more to the sudden downfall than just the lack of speed. I think injuries beyond Nelson's are a significant factor along with Lacy's disappearance and Adams struggles. However, I think there is still more at the root cause of what has happened. A number of Rodgers-related issues and impact of coaching reorganization are significant causes, and I can't decide which is more significant.

[Patler]

Rodgers made two lazy/poor passes that I recall off the top of my head - the 3rd and short to Rodegers that was low and behind (before the fake) and the crossing to Abby that was too far in from t of him. Rodgers also had a running lane on the INT to Jones (would have been called back due to penalty anyway).

Rodgers is not sharp. Stubby is generally pissed because he thinks the plays will work if just run better. I agree. IT's not like they are gonna score 30 points at will, but they might eat clock and produce 21. Take away the 21 points off turnovers and you have a ballgame.

But realistically, nothing is gonna work with two turnstiles at tackle....

Rodgers had another very poor throw to Adams on the sideline in the first half. Adams was open and just beyond the marker on third down; Rodgers sailed a throw way over his head. Rodgers had a lot of poor plays in that game, and the offense can't do a lot when he is "off" on so many plays.

The injuries to the tackles have been huge.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Yoop's analysis is accurate. But, if what he says is true -- and I think it is (I've been saying all year that the Packers lack speed at virtually every skill position -- then explain Stubby's solution:

“He [Arod] cannot get hit like that, and we’ve got to change that,” McCarthy said. “(He) can’t hold the ball, either, and all the things that come with it. We’ve got to get (receivers) open quicker, we’ve got to beat man-to-man coverage, we’ve got to quit worrying about plays (called). We just need to focus on execution.”

I submit Stubby's solution to the problem is no solution at all. In effect he's saying that the players need to get faster so they can get open and beat man coverage. No amount of "focus on execution" is going to increase this team's speed.

I'm thinking that Stubby is an has been in denial. As a result, he hasn't modified his game plans to put his players -- slow as they are -- in a position to be successful. He should bite the bullet and get rid of hurry-up offense. He should have Arod operate more under center, which would facilitate more deceptive runs, play action passes, boot legs, screen plays, RB check-offs in the flat and delayed patterns over the middle. In short, he should stop asking his players to do what they cannot do. It's also getting people hurt.

My brother is driving down to Florida from Wisconsin to visit me. He watches the weather very carefully and has changed his route and driving times to accommodate the bad weather. Why? He can't change the weather. I suppose he could simply say "Fuck it, we're sticking to our original plan and we'll push through. We'll make it with proper execution." But we all know that's crazy. We all know you've got to adjust to the reality of the situation.

All of us know this except maybe one stubborn Head Coach?

[pbmax]

Nelson was their best player versus man coverage and even he could fall prey to it. He doesn't exactly light up the scoreboard versus the old 49ers or Seahawks. And even though he is not quick with his first step, he is the fastest they have outside of Janis. It does degrade the team athleticism and speed when he is not out there.

Arians mentioned the speed issue, how his D thought it would be no problem to matchup one on one. That has bothered the Pacers before and its bothering them now. Its worse without Nelson because the Packers can't take the ball deep on that man coverage.

Man coverage is tough when the opponent is fast or quick, its also tough with double moves and long routes. Guess who doesn't have time for those much anymore? The QB.

The man they are missing (who should have been Monty who is quicker than fast but can burn man coverage of the line) is Greg Jennings.

[Patler]

This team didn't suddenly become slow. It has been slow for a while, yet the offense still succeeded.

[pbmax]

You do not need to be faster to beat man coverage otherwise no TE would ever be open against a safety.

Cobb is a converted QB who is not the best route runner. His best routes are broken off on scrambles.

Nelson is gone.

Jones is slow but knows how to get position. He is the only one Rodgers trusts to get to the ball on contested throws by bodying the defender.

Adams just has not figured it out yet. But he also doesn't run great routes and the ankle injury doesn't help.

Janis' routes are more rudimentary than Adams. He often just runs to open space regardless of play call.

Abby has the tools but is playing a lost season with that concussion. He is also less than ideal outside one on one. He works best in the slot where Cobb is.

Driver didn't have great speed but he could outwork or out jump anyone to the ball. Only Nelson is close to Driver.

None of the Packer receivers before or since (maybe Brooks or Sharpe) were as good on a route as Jennings.

Its not a death knell as we saw last year. You can run against man coverage. If you can pass block, you can beat it on longer routes. But you can't have no run game and no pass blocking.

[pbmax]

This team didn't suddenly become slow. It has been slow for a while, yet the offense still succeeded.

Its not the only factor. But it is important in the context of the rest of the team. With no run game and no pass blocking, getting open quick is more important this year than ever.