Is Aaron Rodgers more of the problem than we might think?

[Maxie the Taxi]

Another observation...go back and watch the film of Arod's 2nd quarter interception throw at Jones. We've got 5 linemen to protect Arod against 5 rushers. Plus, Lacy was kept in the backfield to help out. So what happens. Barclay becomes a sieve and gets speed rushed. BUT HE HAS NO HELP. Lacy immediately looks to the right side and decides to double team someone there. So Barclay is called for holding and the play blows up.

Nevermind that Arod panics and launches the ball into double coverage.

You'd think the coaches would instruct Lacy to help out their weakest link on the Oline, wouldn't you? Either they did and Lacy is another Bostick or, again, the coach is denying reality.

Edit: In fact it's worse than I thought. There were only 4 Arizona defenders rushing Arod.

[Patler]

My brother is driving down to Florida from Wisconsin to visit me. He watches the weather very carefully and has changed his route and driving times to accommodate the bad weather. Why? He can't change the weather. I suppose he could simply say "Fuck it, we're sticking to our original plan and we'll push through. We'll make it with proper execution." But we all know that's crazy. We all know you've got to adjust to the reality of the situation.

All of us know this except maybe one stubborn Head Coach?

Not a good analogy. Having spent a half century driving all over the snow and cold country of ND, MN, WI, MI and Ontario in the dead of winter, I watched the weather reports and relied on thorough preparation and proper execution. Most often, changing my route was not an option, because there simply was no alternate route. Changing my time was out of the question, because schedules were schedules, and rarely changed.

[mraynrand]

really an excellent post, PB.

You do not need to be faster to beat man coverage otherwise no TE would ever be open against a safety.

Run Rodgers farther downfield and throw higher to him (note AZ throws high to a covered Floyd)

Cobb is a converted QB who is not the best route runner. His best routes are broken off on scrambles.

Nelson is gone.

Jones is slow but knows how to get position. He is the only one Rodgers trusts to get to the ball on contested throws by bodying the defender.

I noticed on Sunday that on at least two throws to Jones, Rodgers came back to Jones and threw even when covered. On a similar throw to Adams, he severely overthrew him.

Adams just has not figured it out yet. But he also doesn't run great routes and the ankle injury doesn't help.

Janis' routes are more rudimentary than Adams. He often just runs to open space regardless of play call.

Many receivers run some aborted patterns and just stop. Some guys get open on crossing routes, but before they clear Rodgers is fleeing pressure.

Abby has the tolls but is playing a lost season with that concussion. He is also less than ideal outside one on one. He works best in the slot where Cobb is.

Driver didn't have great speed but he could outwork or out jump anyone to the ball. Only Nelson is close to Driver.

None of the Packer receivers before or since (maybe Brooks or Sharpe) were as good on a route as Jennings.

Its not a death knell as we saw last year. You can run against man coverage.
especially Rodgers. Quick runs and slides for 5+ yards will help kill the press man coverage

If you can pass block, you can beat it on longer routes. But you can't have no run game and no pass blocking.

The O-line can be better. But will they be for the stretch run is the question. Packers could also help themselves with play calls against tendency and against down and distance

[Patler]

Its not the only factor. But it is important in the context of the rest of the team. With no run game and no pass blocking, getting open quick is more important this year than ever.

I agree, the lack of speed may have more impact this year, but it isn't the cause of the precipitous decline by the offense.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Not a good analogy. Having spent a half century driving all over the snow and cold country of ND, MN, WI, MI and Ontario in the dead of winter, I watched the weather reports and relied on thorough preparation and proper execution. Most often, changing my route was not an option, because there simply was no alternate route. Changing my time was out of the question, because schedules were schedules, and rarely changed.

The analogy is good. You're just in denial like Stubby.

[pbmax]

I agree, the lack of speed may have more impact this year, but it isn't the cause of the precipitous decline by the offense.

Sure. But is any one brick the reason a bridge collapses?

Even here is the land of well considered internet commentary, we often get into binary considerations about whether a coach or player can get it done anymore.

But I suspect McCarthy would have coached his way out of this if one one or two of these issues hit this year or one was only temporary (say pass pro was terrible until Bulaga came back). We've seen him adjust before with offenses that were not firing on all cylinders. I just think he has run out of options.

The last resort is careful offense that runs plays that are called to avoid big negatives, even if that means you are going against the odds on a play (nine in a box). But his entire team (and QB) are built on trying to take advantage of those mis-matches. Its hard to turn into the Buccaneers Offense.

[mraynrand]

The analogy is good. You're just in denial like Stubby.

It's a good analogy, but the answer is 'both' - sometimes you solve the problem by changing route and sometimes you have to go through and you just need to drive very very well.

[mraynrand]

The last resort is careful offense that runs plays that are called to avoid big negatives, even if that means you are going against the odds on a play (nine in a box). But his entire team (and QB) are built on trying to take advantage of those mis-matches. Its hard to turn into the Buccaneers Offense.

I think you're right on the money here. Stubby's GPS is broken so he can't navigate another route and he thinks they can win best if they just drive very, very carefully through a blizzard. (and they - Rodgers - are too impulsive)

[Maxie the Taxi]

It's a good analogy, but the answer is 'both' - sometimes you solve the problem by changing route and sometimes you have to go through and you just need to drive very very well.

Exactly. In the NFL nowadays you're always reacting against what the defense does. That's the whole idea behind "matching up well." The Packers of today are not healthy enough or talented enough to employ the Lombardi strategy of doing it the way we do it and challenge the other guys to stop it.

In many ways Stubby is in the same predicament that Chip Kelly was. He implemented some things in the off season for the offense scheme-wise based on the team he had then. Now he's in the position of either keep trying to make the square pegs fit in the round holes or bite the bullet and change to other strategies and simplify. Take some pressure off Arod, the Oline and the team in general.

[pbmax]

It's a good analogy, but the answer is 'both' - sometimes you solve the problem by changing route and sometimes you have to go through and you just need to drive very very well.

Its very geography dependent as well. Maxie's Brother has a plethora of choices driving to Florida from WI. Patler, in the vastness of Canada, had fewer choices and lots of Ice Road Truckers.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I think you're right on the money here. Stubby's GPS is broken so he can't navigate another route and he thinks they can win best if they just drive very, very carefully through a blizzard. (and they - Rodgers - are too impulsive)

Right again. The entire focus of this offense, this year and last, is to be aggressive, is for Arod to adjust on the fly. A go slower and more deliberately strategy runs against that aggressive grain. But they need to do it. The go fast offense has the team out of sync, so you have Lacy making the wrong block and vets like Lang being confused and unsure of themselves.

[Patler]

They could have all the speed in the world, but when all 5 OL have significant injury issues; and when Sitton, who has had back issues for several years, has been the healthiest one of the bunch, I doubt the speed would matter, especially when Rodgers is performing more poorly than one would expect.

[hoosier]

In both the Dallas and the Oakland games there were allusions in the press conferences to "communication problems" that made me wonder what is going on between Rodgers and McCarthy. After the Dallas game Rodgers claimed that he couldn't understand what McCarthy was telling him through the headset because McCarthy's "Pittsburgh dialect" was too thick for him. What on earth does that mean? He's been listening to MM's play calls for eight years, and now suddenly he cannot understand his "dialect"?
http://www.packers.com/news-and-even...7-1fa0d17f15de

Then, after the Oakland game, MM alluded to more "communication problems," which he blamed on the headsets as if to say it was a technical problem. It sounds to me like the problems may run a lot deeper than a malfunctioning communication device.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/363092811.html

[pbmax]

They could have all the speed in the world, but when all 5 OL have significant injury issues; and when Sitton, who has had back issues for several years, has been the healthiest one of the bunch, I doubt the speed would matter, especially when Rodgers is performing more poorly than one would expect.

Unlike past years or other questions about this year, I think these two fit together like puzzle pieces. Its one reason screens (both WR and RB) have been so prevalent this year.

[Maxie the Taxi]

In both the Dallas and the Oakland games there were allusions in the press conferences to "communication problems" that made me wonder what is going on between Rodgers and McCarthy. After the Dallas game Rodgers claimed that he couldn't understand what McCarthy was telling him through the headset because McCarthy's "Pittsburgh dialect" was too thick for him. What on earth does that mean? He's been listening to MM's play calls for eight years, and now suddenly he cannot understand his "dialect"?
http://www.packers.com/news-and-even...7-1fa0d17f15de

Then, after the Oakland game, MM alluded to more "communication problems," which he blamed on the headsets as if to say it was a technical problem. It sounds to me like the problems may run a lot deeper than a malfunctioning communication device.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/363092811.html

I think you're on to something. When things start going south, everybody blames communication problems. Basically, what that is is a fancy way of transferring blame to someone else. I think there is some resentment on Arod's part because of the way Stubby handled the playcalling thing. Arod and Clements were tight. By all accounts Clements and Arod were clicking re: playcalling. Probably neither felt the need for change.

WAS change really needed? I don't know but I doubt it. I think taking playcalling back was Stubby's way of easing his own discomfort with the changes he had installed earlier. Early on, even before the bye week, the thought crossed my mind that if things started to go south, Stubby would appear on the scene as a super hero, take back the playcalling and save the day. I'm not saying it was purely a stunt, but there was an element to it of giving the team a needed shot in the arm. It just didn't turn out as dramatically as Stubby hoped.

The solution to these communication problems is 1) winning, but 2) dumping the complications of the hurry up, i.e., getting back to basics, making sure each person knows his assignment and then making sure he executes.