"TED THOMPSONS FORMULA FOR SUCCESS SIZZLES ""

[vince]

The repeatable pattern would seem to be that depth (or lack thereof) cannot execute the same gameplans as starters.

IF heathy, the unit can function. if backups are in key roles, it struggles. And it doesn't struggle in a 24-30 points surrendered way. Its struggles to hold them under 35 points.

The problems this year in pass defense were significant and have to be fixed. Those problems haven't always surfaced though through previous years though, including last year when the young guys were even younger - but performed far better.

So I can appreciate your confidence in the current guys returning to form PB but even if they do I'm not convinced they have enough talent there yet at the top of the depth chart particularly.

The "defense is too complex for back-ups" theory sounds good, but I'm not convinced that's it at all. Part of the problem this year was that the defense was too simple, predictable, easy to diagnose and attack for too many teams. The same guys who sucked this year played pretty well in the same scheme the year before and it's not because they were doing a bunch of exotic stuff this year that they couldn't handle.

In spite of your confidence PB, I think a big unknown from this year - and moving forward - is the real extent to which Randall and Rollins were impacted by injuries. "If healthy the unit can function." I'm not convince they're not overmatched when healthy if they're playing the same roles again. They played through their pains for the most part - and sucked big donkey balls pretty much all year long after showing a lot of promise as rooks.

Was it because they just couldn't match up with 1's and 2's. Probably in part. Was it because they couldn't run due to playing through persistent injuries? Probably in part. One thing I am confident of is that it had little to do with the gameplan being too complex for them.

In the absence of being physically limited due to injury, I would add that I think Rollins was forced to play a role he's just not ever going to fulfill very well even when healthy. He has a lot of strong attributes but running down the sideline with burners and matching up physically with the big strong receivers outside either at the LOS or downfield aren't among them.

I do think he can play if they can leverage what he does do well and that's play in space in the slot. But maybe I'm overrating him and that's just not true either. He's definitely can't hang with the Kelce's and Gronk's of the league inside. That's Burnett now.

Randall played so far off guys at times he just conceded 10-15 yd. completions. Why? Injury, uncoachable? No confidence? If he's so injured he can't cover than get Hawkins out there and hope for the best. He can't do worse.

So they're are some serious problems of which I don't believe we really have enough information to do much more than throw darts at possible solutions and outcomes.

Gunter showed he can't hang with the league's elite receivers. But no one expected him to be in that position in September. Shields' absence had a domino effect of putting them all in tough spots, along with the injuries? or not.

Based on past experience with young players fighting through injury and getting pushed up the match-up depth chart at the same time, I'd say there's a reasonable chance they continue to develop and regain their form, but we don't really know what's going on. Injured or not you can't give guys 15 yards of cushion.

So with Shields' pretty much a certain goner - and I can't imagine they will put $12 mil and another season on the line even if he wanted to attempt a comeback with how severe his last 2 concussions have been now, there's a big hole at the top of the depth chart that I don't have faith Randall is ready to fill regardless of health. And there's a role for Gunter too, but it's as a #4 corner not #1 - never will be.

A lot of questions and not a lot of answers - at least not yet. A reliable corner that can match up one on one outside, along with the youngun's getting back on track with more favorable roles and better health could make all the difference. Not having that guy really handcuffs the defense, and I just don't see that guy on the roster. It's a lot to ask of a new guy to jump right in and be the man - but that's what needs to happen I think.

[texaspackerbacker]

Pretty good analysis, vince.

"Shields' absence had a domino effect of putting them all in tough spots, along with the injuries." - I think this quote from your post is the most significant reason for the problems and the key to improving things. Other than the slim chance of Shields coming back and being the answer, we badly need a solid #1 cover Corner. Given the shakiness of drafting a Corner for immediate success, I'd really like to see Ted depart from his usual way and signing a top level free agent Corner. We certainly seem to have the money and cap space available for that.

[pbmax]

In spite of your confidence PB, I think a big unknown from this year - and moving forward - is the real extent to which Randall and Rollins were impacted by injuries. "If healthy the unit can function." I'm not convince they're not overmatched when healthy if they're playing the same roles again. They played through their pains for the most part - and sucked big donkey balls pretty much all year long after showing a lot of promise as rooks.

I think we are talking about two things here.

1. If the Defense suffers injuries to starters for more than 1 or 2 games, it has trouble plugging in backups and succeeding. Part of it is depth and lesser talent, but part of it may be packages designed for certain players and groups. When Shields went down, the entire package for this year went out the window. It took 4-6 games to adjust.

This is true of many defenses. But the Packers losses this year weren't catastrophic, they were middle of the road, though definitely tilted to the defense. The problem is that Ted, Mike and Dom cannot surrender 40 points in playoff games versus good teams. That seems preventable. I think they all have a hand in that failure.

2. Cornerback talent on roster. Losing Shields was going to hurt. At best, it elevates Randall to #1 and Rollins/Gunter to #2. None have proven they are worthy of those jobs yet. I still think they might. Injuries make a hash of sorting out Rollins and Randall's seasons, but Randall wasn't exactly lights out even before his injury. That isn't proof, he was beginning his second year full time at CB after being a safety in college, he was going to have some rough times regardless. The fact that he came completely unglued is probably more worrisome than his injuries at this point.

Gunter is limited enough that he will need perfect technique to battle top WR outside. Its possible, but he isn't there yet. Al Harris used to do it, but Al was a rare bird.

Of the three CBs I defended this year, the most disappointing thing might have been Rollins being such a tire fire outside. At one point in camp, he passed Randall on the depth chart I believe and Randall moved inside. He shouldn't be that limited. For both he and Randall, you have to hope health and Whitt work a minor miracle to return them to form so they can continue to progress.

[3irty1]

With the character of our offense we're unlikely to ever have a statistically great defense. Our offense has never been much of a ball-control march-down-the-field kind of outfit. Its explosive, scores quickly and lengthens the game. This is a good thing probably, in a longer game the side with more Aaron Rodgers gets to leverage its Aaron Rodgers advantage more. But a defense that passes the sniff test is not too much to ask for. Dom is capable of this.

I think with Randall/Rollins we're in a position we were in with Morgan Burnett once upon a time during our safety crisis. There really isn't much we can do except hope their recent performance was an arbitration or temporary injury. We need new CB's anyway but it appears the 2017 defense will more or less be as good as those two are.

[Pugger]

Defense rankings
2016 - 22nd total, 31st pass, 8th rush, 21st for points
2015 - 15th total, 6th pass, 21st rush, 12th points
2014 - 15th total, 10th pass, 23rd rush, 13th points
2013 - 25th total, 24th pass, 25th rush, 24th points
2012 - 11th total, 11th pass, 17th rush, 11th points
2011 - 32nd total, 32nd pass, 14th rush, 19th points
2010 - 5th total, 5th pass, 18th rush, 2nd points

'14 and '15 weren't dumpster fires, but they were average at best. In a results based business, the only real thing a customer can do is vote with their wallet.

And that's all we really need - an average defense. If we can get more balance on offense and an average defense that might do the trick. Atlanta is in the SB and they don't have the 85 Bears.

[MadScientist]

There are plenty of times where we can find fault with TT for leaving a position thin e.g. ILB. At the start of the season CB looked like a position of strength, but when injuries and regression make you put the expected 4 or 5th best CB on #1 receivers, things are going to be ugly. You can get through a game, maybe two as coordinators need to see tape to know how to really take advantage, but holes will be found and exploited. It's amazing that the Packers made it as far as they did with Gunter covering the other teams' best receivers. Now that the hole has been exposed, we'll see what TT does to fix it. I'm sure there will be more than enough to bitch about.

[pbmax]

And that's all we really need - an average defense. If we can get more balance on offense and an average defense that might do the trick. Atlanta is in the SB and they don't have the 85 Bears.

Exactly. The 2014 defense was fine versus the Seachickens until hemorrhaging late as M3 and fate kept giving them seemingly unlimited possessions.

2015 Defense had the Packers in a position to beat the "superior" Cardinals if the offense was 75% functional.

The 2013 Defense gave the offense a great chance if the O had figured out man under cover 2. It allowed a bad late drive for a winning FG, but that game was easily in reach at the end.

[Smidgeon]

2. Cornerback talent on roster. Losing Shields was going to hurt. At best, it elevates Randall to #1 and Rollins/Gunter to #2. None have proven they are worthy of those jobs yet. I still think they might. Injuries make a hash of sorting out Rollins and Randall's seasons, but Randall wasn't exactly lights out even before his injury. That isn't proof, he was beginning his second year full time at CB after being a safety in college, he was going to have some rough times regardless. The fact that he came completely unglued is probably more worrisome than his injuries at this point.

Gunter is limited enough that he will need perfect technique to battle top WR outside. Its possible, but he isn't there yet. Al Harris used to do it, but Al was a rare bird.

Of the three CBs I defended this year, the most disappointing thing might have been Rollins being such a tire fire outside. At one point in camp, he passed Randall on the depth chart I believe and Randall moved inside. He shouldn't be that limited. For both he and Randall, you have to hope health and Whitt work a minor miracle to return them to form so they can continue to progress.

What we're seeing here is a regression towards the mean. Their first year, they probably all played better than they really are (there is some luck involved). This year, they probably all played worse than what they rally are (after all, there is some luck involved). They probably exist somewhere in the middle with room to improve. It's more likely (just talking probabilities) that their careers end up closer to the first year than to the second.

[Rutnstrut]

Exactly. The 2014 defense was fine versus the Seachickens until hemorrhaging late as M3 and fate kept giving them seemingly unlimited possessions.

2015 Defense had the Packers in a position to beat the "superior" Cardinals if the offense was 75% functional.

The 2013 Defense gave the offense a great chance if the O had figured out man under cover 2. It allowed a bad late drive for a winning FG, but that game was easily in reach at the end.

When you put it like that, it looks even more like coaches choking at key times.

[RashanGary]

McGinn and the urinal sentinel were writing how good the Packers secondary was before the season. How can they publish that followed by the piece of trash McGinn just wrote, then look their readers in the eye and pretend they have a shred of credibility. Fuck mcginn. He's an idiot who's only talent is mindlessly tracking stats that we like to see. outside of that, he's a moron.

[pbmax]

McGinn and the urinal sentinel were writing how good the Packers secondary was before the season. How can they publish that followed by the piece of trash McGinn just wrote, then look their readers in the eye and pretend they have a shred of credibility. Fuck mcginn. He's an idiot who's only talent is mindlessly tracking stats that we like to see. outside of that, he's a moron.

The funny/not funny part is that Bob wants some FAs signed, but he gives a pass on Hayward because the Packers knew what he could and could not do, plus his injury history.

Those free agents he listed also have flaws that their former teams deemed not worth the money.

Which means if they were signed and did not fit or work out, they would be treated like Manuel, Walker or Chillar. FA signings yes, but really worth the money or time.

So Bob is arguing to roll the dice on a vet, rather then develop. And as always, predict the future.

[pbmax]

Also, Bob liking a big back for December Packers football is an example of Bob remembering what Ron Wolf said (lied about) rather than what he did.

[vince]

1. If the Defense suffers injuries to starters for more than 1 or 2 games, it has trouble plugging in backups and succeeding. Part of it is depth and lesser talent, but part of it may be packages designed for certain players and groups. When Shields went down, the entire package for this year went out the window. It took 4-6 games to adjust.

This is true of many defenses. But the Packers losses this year weren't catastrophic, they were middle of the road, though definitely tilted to the defense. The problem is that Ted, Mike and Dom cannot surrender 40 points in playoff games versus good teams. That seems preventable. I think they all have a hand in that failure.
.

Are you referring to personnel packages? I didn't see guys not used to playing with each other or a bunch of communication gaffes/blown coverages...

I saw guys getting beat. With Shields on the field they pretty much knew he didn't need protection and other guys could cheat more away from him to tighten up the rest of the field. That helps the other guys obviously but it all still comes down to the domino effect that such a significant drop in talent has.

There were times in zone coverages where Randall would allow completions on the over route because he got schooled by the QB's eyes and jumped the short route too soon before the safety could get up and to the sideline in time. Having Shields on the other side doesn't change the fact that he didn't cover well far too often.

What am I missing with these packages?

[bobblehead]

When the Packers had their best tandem at cornerback under Thompson they were Woodson and Williams. Williams was signed as a non drafted rookie, and Woodson was Thompson's greatest free agent signing. Sam Shields later developed into a starting cornerback, he was an undrafted rookie. Randall, Rollins, and Hyde were all drafted by Thompson and Hyde has never played as a conventional cornerback. Randall was hybrid safety/corner in a college scheme that relied heavily on man to man coverage. Rollins had only one year of college football. Casey Hayward was a corner in college but had questionable top end speed and played inside. He was left to free agency because of hamstring injuries and the drafting of Rollins, and Randall. The fault in all of this was not recognizing that top end speed and the ability to turn hips and run with a receiver on the outside is a very particular skill set. He hasn't yet drafted a guy suited to play on the outside receiver. Maybe Thompson and his staff struggle to identify these qualities in potential draft picks, but then can see it when they are non drafted free agents? I don't get it.

The undrafted guys both had big speed and great hips, but also huge questions coming out. The guys who have that with no real questions are gone in the first 15 picks.

[pbmax]

Are you referring to personnel packages? I didn't see guys not used to playing with each other or a bunch of communication gaffes/blown coverages...

I saw guys getting beat. With Shields on the field they pretty much knew he didn't need protection and other guys could cheat more away from him to tighten up the rest of the field. That helps the other guys obviously but it all still comes down to the domino effect that such a significant drop in talent has.

There were times in zone coverages where Randall would allow completions on the over route because he got schooled by the QB's eyes and jumped the short route too soon before the safety could get up and to the sideline in time. Having Shields on the other side doesn't change the fact that he didn't cover well far too often.

What am I missing with these packages?

One instance that comes to mind is Matthews in the middle of the nickel pass rush D. There seemed to be a lot of debate about who was covering the flat. And then the guy was wide open.