PackerRats 1st Round Mock Draft

[mraynrand]

Man..The Jets. Muhammad Wilkerson probably is their only good #1 pick since Revis (at least so far).

[pbmax]

Man..The Jets. Muhammad Wilkerson probably is their only good #1 pick since Revis (at least so far).

I liked watching the Ken O'Brien and Johnny "Lam" Jones offense there for awhile (though it was more of a Wesley Walker offense in reality). Everyone talked about the Sack Exchange, but those guys could light it up. They were one of the few teams that could keep up with the Dolphins and Marino for a year or three on the scoreboard.

[mraynrand]

I liked watching the Ken O'Brien and Johnny "Lam" Jones offense there for awhile (though it was more of a Wesley Walker offense in reality). Everyone talked about the Sack Exchange, but those guys could light it up. They were one of the few teams that could keep up with the Dolphins and Marino for a year or three on the scoreboard.

They really should have won something after that 2000 draft, but they had Mike Sherman Edwards as coach. That ain't cutting it.

[woodbuck27]

Picks

1 Cleveland Browns -- Sam Darnold, QB, USC
2 New York Giants -- Guiness
3 New York Jets -- Zool
4 Cleveland Browns -- MrAynRand
5 Denver Broncos -- denverYooper
6 Indianapolis Colts -- Justin Harrell
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Cheesehead Craig
8 Chicago Bears -- Harvey's Wallbangers
9 San Francisco 49ers -- yetisnowman
10 Oakland Raiders -- esoxx
11 Miami Dolphins -- esoxx 2
12 Buffalo Bills -- Deputy Nutz
13 Washington Redskins -- Joemailman
14 Green Bay Packers -- poll
15 Arizona Cardinals -- Cheesehead Craig 2 (poster's second pick is available if we have enough people)
16 Baltimore Ravens -- woodbuck
17 Los Angeles Chargers -- bobblehead
18 Seattle Seahawks -- wthigoot
19 Dallas Cowboys -- Joemailman 2
20 Detroit Lions -- Deputy Nutz 2
21 Cincinnati Bengals -- Guiness 2
22 Buffalo Bills -- BZnDallas
23 New England Patriots -- Bretsky
24 Carolina Panthers -- wthigoot 2
25 Tennessee Titans -- bobblehead
26 Atlanta Falcons -- SudsMcBucky
27 New Orleans Saints -- woodbuck 2
28 Pittsburgh Steelers -- pbmax 2
29 Jacksonville Jaguars -- yetisnowman 2
30 Minnesota Vikings -- Justin Harrell 2
31 New England Patriots -- Bretsky 2
32 Philadelphia Eagles -- Harvey's Wallbangers 2

hahaha I knew that would be youir Pick pbmax.

An excellent Pick that makes Pick NO. 2 easier.

Guiness will Pick @ NO. 2 ..........

[mraynrand]

Guiness will Pick @ NO. 2 ..........

He already picked Chubb. The Cleveland Browns are scrambling to decide how to waste their #4 pick.

[Zool]

The Jets have been looking for a QB for 40 years to replace the swagger of Broadway Joe. While there are other QBs with better measurables still on the board, the Jets go with the guy who just wins.

Jets take Baker Mayfield.....and hope he’s not Maziel 2.0

[pbmax]

...
Metrics guys point out that exactly 2 QBs with Allen's numbers for accuracy have panned out (Carson Wentz is one and I cannot remember the other-check back).

{Edit: I bollixed up my point of comparison. Wentz and Ryan had accuracy issues, but not Allen bad. See below where Wentz and Ryan really overcame the odds (QBase)}

The track record for guys with sub .600 completion percentage in their final college season is terrible going back more than a decade:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016), and C. J. Beathard (2017). That's it.

QBase is the Football Outsiders projection for college QBs into the Pros. It take in more factors than just completion percentage.

Aaron Schatz @FO_ASchatz
In the bottom 50 QB prospects since 1997 according to QBASE, there's one elite starter: Matt Ryan. Carson Wentz might be the second. There's a reason we say that even the worst-projected QB has a 4-5% chance of being elite, esp if scouts think he's worth a top pick. Variance!

Aaron Schatz @FO_ASchatz
So, yes, Josh Allen fans, there is hope. Not much but not zero. I would much prefer to risk my first-round pick on Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.

[pbmax]

Picks

1 Cleveland Browns -- Sam Darnold, QB, USC
2 New York Giants -- Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
3 New York Jets -- Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
4 Cleveland Browns -- MrAynRand
5 Denver Broncos -- denverYooper
6 Indianapolis Colts -- Justin Harrell
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Cheesehead Craig
8 Chicago Bears -- Harvey's Wallbangers
9 San Francisco 49ers -- yetisnowman
10 Oakland Raiders -- esoxx
11 Miami Dolphins -- esoxx 2
12 Buffalo Bills -- Deputy Nutz
13 Washington Redskins -- Joemailman
14 Green Bay Packers -- poll
15 Arizona Cardinals -- Cheesehead Craig 2 (poster's second pick is available if we have enough people)
16 Baltimore Ravens -- woodbuck
17 Los Angeles Chargers -- bobblehead
18 Seattle Seahawks -- wthigoot
19 Dallas Cowboys -- Joemailman 2
20 Detroit Lions -- Deputy Nutz 2
21 Cincinnati Bengals -- Guiness 2
22 Buffalo Bills -- BZnDallas
23 New England Patriots -- Bretsky
24 Carolina Panthers -- wthigoot 2
25 Tennessee Titans -- bobblehead
26 Atlanta Falcons -- SudsMcBucky
27 New Orleans Saints -- woodbuck 2
28 Pittsburgh Steelers -- pbmax 2
29 Jacksonville Jaguars -- yetisnowman 2
30 Minnesota Vikings -- Justin Harrell 2
31 New England Patriots -- Bretsky 2
32 Philadelphia Eagles -- Harvey's Wallbangers 2

[mraynrand]

The Browns breath a sigh of relief. For years they've done the QB/Great talent double team with a combination of first round picks and told the fans "THE FUTURE IS NOW" And it was true - the future was now - and it was an exciting and wonderful dystopian future like the "Maze Runner" or "The Hunger Games" but it wasn't anything John Facenda would ever want to voice over, unless it was for football follies. Recall these Beauties:

Weeden/Richardson
Quinn/Thomas
Manziel/Gilbert

Joe Thomas was of course the great star for Cleveland over the past decade, but Browns #1 picks have otherwise been awful or if competent, they manage to misuse them before getting rid of them. Or they trade down to 'accumulate picks' (aka accumulate dead bodies).

So this year (unbeknownst to PBmax, the Browns were going to draft Josh Allen #1 as the QB with the "highest ceiling" in the draft). The temptation was to trade down at #4. Why? Because the Browns, having spent tons of money to fill every spot on the O-line, just lost Thomas to frustration, and need a LT, but there is no Jonathan Ogden worth #4 - so trade down and get a LT and another 'value pick' like Greg Little is the smart call...or is it? No one really needs Julio Jones, right?

But no, another former LB is in charge now, and we know all about former LBs turned GMs - Can't miss, right? Like Ted Thompson, Matt Millen, or Peter Parker. Well anyway, John Dorsey is just going to select the greatest talent left and pick Saquon Barkley, and have an explosive offensive talent to take the pressure off his veteran inaccurate passer and his rookie inexperienced passer. The future is now!

[woodbuck27]

Someone PM pbmax, he's been on the clock for 50 minutes already!

esoxx you must be patient; some of these Packerrats think a tad slow like Packer Brass.

pbmax actually gets it right.

[woodbuck27]

Wow the NO. 4 Pick is like the Packers having Aaron Rodgers fall to them.

It has to be RB Prospect Saquon Barkley.

[pbmax]

Picks

1 Cleveland Browns -- Sam Darnold, QB, USC
2 New York Giants -- Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
3 New York Jets -- Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
4 Cleveland Browns -- Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
5 Denver Broncos -- denverYooper
6 Indianapolis Colts -- Justin Harrell
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Cheesehead Craig
8 Chicago Bears -- Harvey's Wallbangers
9 San Francisco 49ers -- yetisnowman
10 Oakland Raiders -- esoxx
11 Miami Dolphins -- esoxx 2
12 Buffalo Bills -- Deputy Nutz
13 Washington Redskins -- Joemailman
14 Green Bay Packers -- poll
15 Arizona Cardinals -- Cheesehead Craig 2 (poster's second pick is available if we have enough people)
16 Baltimore Ravens -- woodbuck
17 Los Angeles Chargers -- bobblehead
18 Seattle Seahawks -- wthigoot
19 Dallas Cowboys -- Joemailman 2
20 Detroit Lions -- Deputy Nutz 2
21 Cincinnati Bengals -- Guiness 2
22 Buffalo Bills -- BZnDallas
23 New England Patriots -- Bretsky
24 Carolina Panthers -- wthigoot 2
25 Tennessee Titans -- bobblehead
26 Atlanta Falcons -- SudsMcBucky
27 New Orleans Saints -- woodbuck 2
28 Pittsburgh Steelers -- pbmax 2
29 Jacksonville Jaguars -- yetisnowman 2
30 Minnesota Vikings -- Justin Harrell 2
31 New England Patriots -- Bretsky 2
32 Philadelphia Eagles -- Harvey's Wallbangers 2

[pbmax]

dYooper and the Broncos are on the clock!

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Plenty of people have two picks, ask 'em.

I'm good. Was just trying to make a funny and saying hello to my ole pal Harlan. Plus, as Wist will tell you, I'm too lazy to do any draft research.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The Jets have been looking for a QB for 40 years to replace the swagger of Broadway Joe. While there are other QBs with better measurables still on the board, the Jets go with the guy who just wins.

Jets take Baker Mayfield.....and hope he’s not Maziel 2.0

Mayfield over the rich kid who hates the current POTUS and the small school guy with a big arm? Somewhere in the Packerrats universe, Mel Kiper Jr. is saying picks like this is why the Jets pick in the top 5 every year.