You Know, Maybe Woodbuck Is Right

[pbmax]

And we could be better than the scouts*

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/browns_executive_shines_negative_light_on_josh_rosen_josh_allen/s1_12680_26321972

So that’s why Mayfield ended up being drafted, among other things. But here’s where it gets very interesting. Highsmith opened up about what turned him off about Rosen and Allen.

For Rosen, it was just something under the surface he says he cannot quite define.

“I was at an airport,” he said. “UCLA’s volleyball team was in front of me. You heard so much about Rosen. He’s this or that. We all know how people talk. So I asked one of the volleyball coaches, ‘What’s Rosen like?’ He said, ‘Aaaaa, you should probably ask his girlfriend. She’s one of the players. She’s over there.’

“I’m like, ‘All right coach. That’s good enough.’ I don’t know what all this means, but there was something about him that bothered me.”

*if we actually went to campus, watched film, understood the assignments in the film, talked to coaches (position coaches, not the volleyball coach), all the historical combine and player data ...

Highsmith found Sam Shields, so he can see something. But boy oh boy he presents a conclusion searching for support better than any recent example I an think of.

[mraynrand]

When Darrell Thompson ran me over in a pickup basketball game at MN, I knew he didn't have the quick twitch lateral speed to make it playing for a West Coast offense in the NFL. When he later fouled me but prevented me from scoring, I was certain. This is the kind of data GB didn't have and needed, and I let them down.

[pbmax]

When Darrell Thompson ran me over in a pickup basketball game at MN, I knew he didn't have the quick twitch lateral speed to make it playing for a West Coast offense in the NFL. When he later fouled me but prevented me from scoring, I was certain. This is the kind of data GB didn't have and needed, and I let them down.

I think we could pool this data and get the hit rate on draft picks way up, from 50% to 52%.

[mraynrand]

I think we could pool this data and get the hit rate on draft picks way up, from 50% to 52%.

At least I could have changed Thompson's value points from 5.42 to 5.37.

[mraynrand]

Highsmith should have talked to the volleyball player. I dated Kent Hrbek's cousin who played v-ball. She told me a lot of stories about Kent. I would have drafted him.

[woodbuck27]

It's funny. I was just coming back here to post this ** from NFL.com.

To understand me you simply have to factor this in. By nature of my personality I'm an analyst and determined to try to do my best at anything I do. I'm generally an 'all in' person and getting it as close to exactly right as is possible. So without being ridiculously ANAL I spice it with a tad of perfectionism.

All my life I had the ability to see people for the way they really are. Thus amongst my peers I was the Captain or the Gang Leader. I played sports even as a pre Teen. I played sports at a highly competitive level and learned what it was like to be 'a Winner'. I learned what it took to contribute as 'the Team Player' as well. I knew how to present myself before Coaches in any Sport I played that had a Draft. I was also fortunate to grow up with highly competitive Peers. Solid athletes push the Cream to the TOP. Thus it's smarter to draft people that are from good Programs.

As a Pro Sports fan i was right there with 'the Boys' and debating who was this or that. I'm not anyone to argue with as IMO argument is for those that get off on 'the IDIOT walk'. I enjoy debate but never with a classless know it all 'know nothing' about the value of being a gentleman. It's like you never walk with an 'angry slobbering dog'. You have to know your sooner than later going to get bitten. I spend enough time debating with myself. I have very intelligent (and wise) people here that actually understand the NFL (and the Green Bay Packers) and all of that and in terms of it's strength and weakness of mentality.

I am an analyst naturally. I've lived a long life. I've held many leadership positions. I'm a technical Guy thus cautious and have always been a Teacher formally and informally.I don't have to 'be right'. I desire to ne right. I investigate things on the spot instinctively and take time after to ensure my earlier appraisals were solid or not. In the end I get it pretty close to right. When I do analysis I weigh a vast amount of information as I arrive at the closest conclusion of 'THE TRUTH' as I'm always determined to achieve. I am a very determined individual. That trait has contributed abundantly to me being 't Winner' often.

In the NFL Draft the Draft Teams have what? a 20-25 % chance of getting it right. Generally Pro Bowl Players are those Guys picked earlier in Drafts than mid Round Prospects and 'of course' lower Graded or late Round Prospects. In the NFL the Draft is 'the REAL SHOW' and Rounds 1-4. Reading my Posts Pre Draft clearly shows my feelings that the Packers should 'in fact' trade down from Pick NO. 14. My analysis had Lber Tremaine Edmunds (Buffalo Bills Rd. 1 Pick 16) and more likely that not Safety Derwin James (LA Chargers Rd. 1 Pick 17) off the Board by the Packers Pick @ Rd. 1 Pick NO. 14. So sure given we needed EDGE (Pass Rush and FA Signing M. Wilkerson wasn't the Total Answer); DB (we're Coyote Ugly there); OL (the RHS of the OL needs serious attention - Bulaga!? ; WR (thin and slower than cold Molasses and that 'once strength now NOT) >>> and here is the REAL DEAL >>> all of that adds a tremendous burden to that Guy who isn't always going to carry the Packers with his TOP Talented NFL GIFTS and broad shoulders or Aaron Rodgers.

I am resigned to the fact that there will be no Super Bowl and the Green Bay Packers this Season. For anyone here that feels the Packers will be in the SHOW this Season more power to you and all that faith. It's certainly not like a snow ball not melting in July chance, that your faith will NOT be rewarded. I'm a Packer fan. I'm more an amateur NFL Analysts. I'm also growing as such. That means I don't always get it right. Sadly for 'the Cool Aid Drinkers here I'll inform you that I seldom get it wrong. Why!? I'm intelligent and have picked up some wisdom in my lifetime of hanging around solid people and choosing decent MENTORS from a young age.

So here is that**.

I have a lot of respect for these Two NFL Analysts and frankly most of the people there are weak. I've seen and proven that (weakness) in a personal comparison with my analysis and results for over a decade now.

What do NFL.Com Analysts Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks have to say and others as well and Drafting Philosophy.

Top 5 STEALS of the 2018 NFL Draft | NFL Network (Note do any of these Names mentioned jive with my Posts here ie 'Draft Steals' Tremaine Edmunds and Derwin James and Safety Justin Reid of Stanford and now a Draft Steal for the Houston Texans and he was omitted from our Packerat Round TWO MOCK POLL. Why was that and I heavily promoted Justin Reid for obvious reasons..like he's very solid as a Prospect Risk?. Another Football Player I really liked was Alabama's ILB Rashaan Evans, and he wasn't on our Packerrats Mock Round One POLL (even after I requested he be added).

The Two people actually selected by Packerrats in our MOCK POLLS slid down the Board. Packerrats are all gung Ho and Goot's moves to pick a CB and suddenly Packerrats members are not DOWN WITH EDGE as the Highest Priority.

I'll inform you of what it generally is and acceptable as a Drafting 'RULE OF THUMB'. You draft inside out and front to back. Packer GM Brian Gutekunst and his Team elected to go with 'a band aid' approach and TWO Rookies and again..again..again..a DB..a Cornerback!? ... NO ! ... 2 X CB in the Rounds One and Two.

Again PASS RUSH the 1st Priority that clearly Packerats agreed was all that was ignored for another year.

Ohh GEE ! Maybe next year and Draft 2019. For all that's HOLY ...come on !

Rah Rah Rah ! The Packers negotiate another Round One Pick in 2019 and at the same time certainly paid in advance for it. The COST was 856 Trade Value Points and in the Process booted the opportunity to Draft both Tremaine Edmunds and Derwin James and all of that I certainly question.

I'm *** trying to isolate and post a LINK where NFL.com Analysts DJ and BB (well Bucky Brooks) is very impressed with Packers and their performance in Rounds 1 thru 3 and the selection of three WR's to hope and use that 'some of that sticks on the wall' approach to loading up on 'a Position and Picks'.

*** I'll try to do so tomorrow. Today a lot of the Video's on NFL.Com are streaming Videos and it gets difficult to get the URL for that specific Video you might want to share.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.tampabay.com/texans-select-stanford-safety-justin-reid-in-third-round-ap_sports7eea34a9d95a4d259946cdaaadad79d3

Texans select Stanford safety Justin Reid in third round.

Published: April 28, 2018

http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-2/Meet-the-Rookie-S-Justin-Reid/b245402c-e6c9-49ab-9f95-d0284b3f6e44

Meet the Rookie: S Justin Reid

Posted 9 hours ago

Comment woodbuck27:

The Packers passed on this Prospect and doubled down at the CB Position.

How has making picks at CB worked out for the Packers in the last few years? Their investment has been too heavy given the returns and still their going there ! Does that make a lot of common sense?

[pbmax]

How has making picks at CB worked out for the Packers in the last few years? Their investment has been too heavy given the returns and still their going there ! Does that make a lot of common sense?

Yes, it does. While its not the best expenditure of draft capital (failures of the past make the repeat necessary) its much more important to find 2 frontline starters at CB than an ILB or another safety.

Dix, Brice and Jones can man safety better than House, Williams and King can man cornerback.

As for Edge versus cover corners, I still think its a tossup as to need. Matthews and Perry are good but perhaps no longer good enough. Wilkerson might pay off, he might not. But I suspect the GM decided the CBs were a better bet than Edge rushers this draft because the CB prospects were deeper than the pass rush prospects.

If you notice, many of the people chanting for Edge pass rush wanted a trade up to avoid the Davenport/Landry level of pick. When that did not manifest itself, CB looks like a better value. In three years, we will know if they are right.

[woodbuck27]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luMnZkwCMqI

See Time on Video@ 8:00 and the Saints Pick of EDGE Markus Davenport ( a ;olely Project).

See Time 9:29 and the Buffalo Bills absolute STEAL PICK of 'a rare talent' in OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds who noone had falling this far in Round One

Comment woodbuck27:

Before the DRAFT who would you take Tremaine Edmunds (Graded = 7.17) or Jaire Alexander (Grade = 6.06)?

Before the DRAFT who would you have chosen Derwin James (GRADE = 6.44 ) or Jaire Alexander (Grade = 6.06)?

PACKERS LOSE on two outstanding talents and they had the choice of either by simply sitting at Pick NO. 14. What did their trade all the way back by 13 slots say about their 2018 Season? Do you imagine they'll find a talent like Tremaine Edmonds at a very possible later First Round Draft Slot in 2019? They have committed or already invested >850 Trade Value Points on that Pick next year.

See Time 10:20 and the LA Chargers STEAL of Florida State Safety Derwin James. Again, a somewhat surprise that he fell this far in Round One.

See Time 10.45 and the Packers trading back up the Board to Pick CB Jaire Alexander. Deemed a good job by this analyst.

See 12:31 and the Tennessee Titans Pick of another Guy I really liked and Alabama Safety Rashaan Evans. Deemed as a day one starter.

I'll add these comments:


Michael Bell Jr ... 2 days ago
BILLs MAFIA !!!! (RE: THe Absolute STEAL of 'All World *** OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds.****

** Ethan Garland ... 3 days ago
Real winner is gonna be who gets Landry.

**
Ernie B. ... 3 days ago
the Chargers got so lucky and snagged the top hitting’ safety!

** Keenan Waterhouse ... 3 days ago
I hated the raiders pick why didn't they draft Tremaine Edmunds

** pjk661 ... 1 day ago
james to the chargers has to be the best pick in the draft. fills a need with dynamic te coverage skills and sure tackler.

**
Brady Lockwood ... 3 days ago
At Pick NO. 28 ... how do steelers pass on Justin Reid and Jessie bates for TerrelEdmunds

** Barry McDaniel ... 3 days ago
you can say that again. very surprising

NOTE woodbuck27: Safety Terrell Edmunds was way down most boards, and a risk at No. 28 overall. There were a lot of good safeties on the board. ie Justin Reid, Jessie Bates III and Kyzer White?

[woodbuck27]

Yes, it does. While its not the best expenditure of draft capital (failures of the past make the repeat necessary) its much more important to find 2 frontline starters at CB than an ILB or another safety.

Dix, Brice and Jones can man safety better than House, Williams and King can man cornerback.

As for Edge versus cover corners, I still think its a tossup as to need. Matthews and Perry are good but perhaps no longer good enough. Wilkerson might pay off, he might not. But I suspect the GM decided the CBs were a better bet than Edge rushers this draft because the CB prospects were deeper than the pass rush prospects.

If you notice, many of the people chanting for Edge pass rush wanted a trade up to avoid the Davenport/Landry level of pick. When that did not manifest itself, CB looks like a better value. In three years, we will know if they are right.

Is it this: and again and again ....and..... Drafting CB Prospects in Round One.

or .... an honest response to this:

Look at the Talent and outstanding analysis of SPECIMEN OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds and tell me you would reject him to instead choose CB Jaire Alexander. You won't do that.

Before the DRAFT who would you take Tremaine Edmunds (Graded = 7.17) or Jaire Alexander (Grade = 6.06)?

What does a GRADE of 7.17 for a certain Prospect generally mean to you (when judging the Risk of 'a bust') compared to another Prospect with a GRADE of 6.06?

You Draft 'as a Rule of Thumb': Inside out and front to back.

In a formation of a flock of Geese in fleight:

Where is the strong Goose...at the forward and lead position of the Flock of Geese OR at the extreme tails of the Vee?

[pbmax]

What does a GRADE of 7.17 for a certain Prospect generally mean to you (when judging the Risk of 'a bust') compared to another Prospect with a GRADE of 6.06?

You Draft 'as a Rule of Thumb': Inside out and front to back.

I do not agree with your second point at all. Most important positions to acquire talent are QB, pass rush and CB. Neither James nor Edmunds play those positions. Judged by position, you draft from outside in. If inside out or front to back worked magic, Andy Reid would have 5 Super Bowls by now. He has none.

I have NO idea what a grade of 7.17 means. I don't know what 6.06 means. It the difference statistically significant? Has anyone ever run a regression on NFL.com grades versus Average Value to see if they pan out? If they pan out, are they accurate to within a point? They are literally meaningless to me. I don't even know who creates them. What is their track record? Do the interns do the film work at NFL.com? Why on earth are they graded on an eight point scale?

Packer scouts have a track record. I can judge relative to their other results. I distrust them on defense more than offense. But somehow, despite 2 decades of struggling to find D lineman, they Packers have a very effective D line. They failed spectacularly in identifying and filling CB holes and in decisions about whom to retain.

But even in the wreckage, I can see the germ of an ability to find corners. Two of the guys they brought back were Packer draft picks who have played well before. Randall is still playing and just had his option picked up. Rollins looked uncannily like Hayward until he was injured and fell way off. If neither young player work out, its a poor result. But its wholly consistent with hitting on 50% of draft picks.

So who do I trust? No one 100%. Teams make terrible decision over time. Maybe this trade down will look terrible (or glorious) in 3 years time. Some of Thompson's worst high draft picks seemed to be about need (Harrell, Worthy) but some of his best were as well (Bulaga, Clark). But I trust scouts with a track record over fans who insist there is one answer (maybe two) and its name is Edmunds (or James).

There are limits to everything. I don't trust Alonzo Highsmith divined any wisdom from a volleyball coach. But the son of a gun found Sam Shields. I didn't.

[mraynrand]

I have NO idea what a grade of 7.17 means. I don't know what 6.06 means. It the difference statistically significant? Has anyone ever run a regression on NFL.com grades versus Average Value to see if they pan out? If they pan out, are they accurate to within a point? They are literally meaningless to me. I don't even know who creates them. What is their track record? Do the interns do the film work at NFL.com? Why on earth are they graded on an eight point scale?

Exactly. Why take these numbers to mean anything at all? I will concede that if fully computerized and integrated to all real statistical measures, at some point these numbers may give some ballpark estimates. But that requires enormous longitudinal study from College Freshman year through NFL retirement (maybe even high school too). I will say this though - once the NFL gets to the point that you can predict a player's success using an algorithm I 1) will have lost interest and 2) hopefully will be dead.

[MadScientist]

And we could be better than the scouts*

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/browns_executive_shines_negative_light_on_josh_rosen_josh_allen/s1_12680_26321972

*if we actually went to campus, watched film, understood the assignments in the film, talked to coaches (position coaches, not the volleyball coach), all the historical combine and player data ...

Highsmith found Sam Shields, so he can see something. But boy oh boy he presents a conclusion searching for support better than any recent example I an think of.

If you read "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking", Highsmith's going with his gut reaction probably makes a lot of sense. If you sat down with Highsmith for an hour and really pressed him for details on what he saw and heard you could probably learn what he picked up on without thinking. Something in the VBall coach's response triggered red flags for Highsmith. Time will tell if he was right.

[Fritz]

Yes, it does. While its not the best expenditure of draft capital (failures of the past make the repeat necessary) its much more important to find 2 frontline starters at CB than an ILB or another safety.

Dix, Brice and Jones can man safety better than House, Williams and King can man cornerback.

As for Edge versus cover corners, I still think its a tossup as to need. Matthews and Perry are good but perhaps no longer good enough. Wilkerson might pay off, he might not. But I suspect the GM decided the CBs were a better bet than Edge rushers this draft because the CB prospects were deeper than the pass rush prospects.

If you notice, many of the people chanting for Edge pass rush wanted a trade up to avoid the Davenport/Landry level of pick. When that did not manifest itself, CB looks like a better value. In three years, we will know if they are right.

Except that Edmunds was available at 14.

[mraynrand]

If you read "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking", Highsmith's going with his gut reaction probably makes a lot of sense. If you sat down with Highsmith for an hour and really pressed him for details on what he saw and heard you could probably learn what he picked up on without thinking. Something in the VBall coach's response triggered red flags for Highsmith. Time will tell if he was right.

It’s obvious Highsmith picked up all kinds of non verbal communication.